near term prospects for the u.s. sugar industry edward evans, sikavas na lampang and john vansickle...
TRANSCRIPT
Near Term Prospects for the U.S. Sugar Industry
Edward Evans, Sikavas Na Lampang and John VanSickle
International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center (IATPC)University of Florida
May 2002
Near Term Prospects for the U.S. Sugar Industry
Edward Evans, Sikavas Na Lampang and John VanSickle
International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center (IATPC)University of Florida
May 2002
Outline
• Trends in U.S. sugar market• Long & short-term issues• Model• Policy scenarios• Results• Conclusions
• Trends in U.S. sugar market• Long & short-term issues• Model• Policy scenarios• Results• Conclusions
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002Consumption Production Imports Ending Stocks
Trends in U.S. Sugar Consumption, Production, Imports and Stocks, FY 1991-
2001(‘000 metric tons)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
US Refined US Raw World Refined World Raw
Trends in U.S. and World Raw and Refined Sugar Prices, FY 1991-2001
(U.S. cents a pound)
• New rounds of WTO negotiations on agriculture– Alliance for Sugar Trade Reform and
Liberalization
• Proposed formation of FTAA in 2005– Brazil
• Single sugar market between U.S. and Mexico in 2008
• New rounds of WTO negotiations on agriculture– Alliance for Sugar Trade Reform and
Liberalization
• Proposed formation of FTAA in 2005– Brazil
• Single sugar market between U.S. and Mexico in 2008
Long-Term Issues
• Proposed formation of free trade area with APEC in 2010– Australia
• Impending trade with Cuba– Cuban Humanitarian Trade Act of
1999– Cuban Food and Medicine
Security Act of 1999– U.S.-Cuba Trade Act of 2000
• Proposed formation of free trade area with APEC in 2010– Australia
• Impending trade with Cuba– Cuban Humanitarian Trade Act of
1999– Cuban Food and Medicine
Security Act of 1999– U.S.-Cuba Trade Act of 2000
Long-Term Issues
• Farm Security & Rural Investment Act
• High-tier sugar imports from Mexico to the U.S.
• How the two sweetener trade disputes with Mexico are resolved.– Validity of the Side Letter Agreement
– Access to the Mexican market for U.S. corn syrup (HFCS)
– Recent Mexican proposal to tax soft drinks containing corn syrup but not sugar
• Farm Security & Rural Investment Act
• High-tier sugar imports from Mexico to the U.S.
• How the two sweetener trade disputes with Mexico are resolved.– Validity of the Side Letter Agreement
– Access to the Mexican market for U.S. corn syrup (HFCS)
– Recent Mexican proposal to tax soft drinks containing corn syrup but not sugar
Near-Term Issues
1. Farm Security & Rural Investment Act:– Honors International Sugar Commitments
• Effectively increases minimum TRQ from 1.13 to 1.38 million metric tons (MMT)
– Reduces the Burden on Producers• Terminates marketing assessments
• Eliminates the forfeiture penalty
• Eliminates the 1-percentage point payment above the CCC’s cost of borrowing
– Reestablishes No-Net-Cost Feature of Program• Reinstates marketing allotments for domestically
grown sugar
• Pre-Plant Payment-in-Kind Program
1. Farm Security & Rural Investment Act:– Honors International Sugar Commitments
• Effectively increases minimum TRQ from 1.13 to 1.38 million metric tons (MMT)
– Reduces the Burden on Producers• Terminates marketing assessments
• Eliminates the forfeiture penalty
• Eliminates the 1-percentage point payment above the CCC’s cost of borrowing
– Reestablishes No-Net-Cost Feature of Program• Reinstates marketing allotments for domestically
grown sugar
• Pre-Plant Payment-in-Kind Program
Near-Term Issues
Raw Cane Sugar Old Farm Bill
(Cents/lb)
New Farm Bill
(Cents/lb)
Loan rate 18.08 18.08
Less forfeiture penalty 1.00 0.00
Effective loan rate 17.08 18.08
Plus Cost of Loan Redemption and Marketing - Interest expense - Transportation costs - Location discounts
0.911.410.20
0.901.410.20
Effective (Target) Price 19.60 20.59
Calculation of U.S. Average Effective Loan Rate and Target Price for Raw Sugar
2.High-tier sugar imports from Mexico to the U.S.
2.High-tier sugar imports from Mexico to the U.S.
Near-Term Issues
Selected Second-Tier of the U.S., 1995-2008
0
5
10
15
20
25
US
cent
s pe
r po
und
0
5
10
15
20
25
US
cent
s pe
r po
und
Mexico’s Raw Sugar
Most Countries’ Raw Sugar
Years
Year Target Price
High Tariff
Mkting Costs
Implicit Barrier
Max World Raw Sugar Mtk. Price
2001 21.00
2002 21.00
2003 21.00
2004 21.00
2005 21.00
2006 21.00
2007 21.00
Mexico’s High Tier Tariff Scenarios*, 2001-07
(U.S. cents/lb)
*Assumption: Loan Rate of 18 cents a pound, for raw sugar
Year Target Price
High Tariff
Mkting Costs
Implicit Barrier
Max World Raw Sugar Mtk. Price
2001 21.00 10.58
2002 21.00 9.07
2003 21.00 7.56
2004 21.00 6.04
2005 21.00 4.53
2006 21.00 3.02
2007 21.00 1.51
Year Target Price
High Tariff
Mkting Costs
Implicit Barrier
Max World Raw Sugar Mtk. Price
2001 21.00 10.58 1.00
2002 21.00 9.07 1.00
2003 21.00 7.56 1.00
2004 21.00 6.04 1.00
2005 21.00 4.53 1.00
2006 21.00 3.02 1.00
2007 21.00 1.51 1.00
Year Target
Price(1)
High Tariff
(2)
Mkting
Costs(3)
Implicit
Barrier
(4)
Incentive to Ship to
US(1)- (4)
2001 21.00 10.58 1.00 11.58
2002 21.00 9.07 1.00 10.07
2003 21.00 7.56 1.00 8.56
2004 21.00 6.04 1.00 7.04
2005 21.00 4.53 1.00 5.53
2006 21.00 3.02 1.00 4.02
2007 21.00 1.51 1.00 2.51
Year Target
Price(1)
High Tariff
(2)
Mkting
Costs(3)
Implicit
Barrier
(4)
Incentive to Ship to
US(1)- (4)
2001 21.00 10.58 1.00 11.58 9.42
2002 21.00 9.07 1.00 10.07 10.93
2003 21.00 7.56 1.00 8.56 12.44
2004 21.00 6.04 1.00 7.04 13.96
2005 21.00 4.53 1.00 5.53 15.47
2006 21.00 3.02 1.00 4.02 16.98
2007 21.00 1.51 1.00 2.51 18.49
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Incentive for Mexico to Ship Over-the-Quota Sugar to the U.S. Market, 2001-07
(U.S. cents/lb)
Model
• Modified version of World Sugar Policy Simulation Model
– Dr. Won Koo, North Dakota State University
– Dynamic partial equilibrium net trade model
– Comprises 18 sugar producing and consuming countries and regions
– Makes specific assumptions about growth rate of various macroeconomic policy variables
• Modified version of World Sugar Policy Simulation Model
– Dr. Won Koo, North Dakota State University
– Dynamic partial equilibrium net trade model
– Comprises 18 sugar producing and consuming countries and regions
– Makes specific assumptions about growth rate of various macroeconomic policy variables
Scenarios
Scenarios ConditionsBaseline
S0
Increased minimum TRQ from 1.13 to 1.38 MMT
Mexico allowed to export all of sugar surplus to U.S. market beginning in FY 2002
No PIK program or direct sugar purchases by government
No restrictions on U.S. sugar production
S1 Same as in baseline (S0) except U.S. domestic sugar production restricted to 1999 level of 7.5 MMT
S2 Same as in baseline (S0) except U.S. domestic sugar price is maintained at 21 cents/lb for raw sugar (loan rate 18 cents/lb)
U.S. Raw Sugar Price Projections, 2002-06(U.S. cents/lb)
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
1999 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
S0 S1 S2
6,800
7,000
7,200
7,400
7,600
7,800
8,000
8,200
8,400
8,600
1999 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
S0 S1 S2
U.S. Sugar Production Projections, 2001-06
(‘000 metric tons)
1,440
1,460
1,480
1,500
1,520
1,540
1,560
1,580
1999 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
S0 S1 S2
U.S. Sugar Beet Acres Harvested Projections, 2001-06
(‘000 acres)
840
860
880
900
920
940
960
980
1,000
1,020
1999 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
S0 S1 S2
U.S. Sugarcane Acres Harvested Projections, 2001-06
(‘000 acres)
• The near term prospects and
indeed the long term prospects for
the U.S. sugar industry appear
bleak
• It will be virtually impossible to
operate the sugar program at no or
minimum cost to the federal
government
• The near term prospects and
indeed the long term prospects for
the U.S. sugar industry appear
bleak
• It will be virtually impossible to
operate the sugar program at no or
minimum cost to the federal
government
Concluding Remarks