Need for integrated, multidisciplinary and international perspectives in research for

agricultural development in Africa

Thomas Rosswall, Chair CCAFSABSTRACT

The Millennium Development Goal 1, Target 3: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whosuffer from hunger, will not be met by 2015. In addition, we face a number of environmental challenges (MDG7).For example, climate change will worsen the conditions of African farmers, who are already vulnerable and foodinsecure. Scientific research must provide knowledge for the development of alternative pathways to reachsustainable development by jointly addressing MDG1 and 7. This necessitates a change in both what we doresearch on and how we conduct the research.

Development and global change have been addressed, researched and funded as unrelated issues. We mustdevelop a multifunctional perspective of agriculture to lead this development looking at how we can furtherstrengthen the resilience of the farming systems, while ensuring increased productivity without major expansion ofland. Farmers must also have access to markets and the rural community needs different livelihood options withfocus on the smallholder farmers.

It is also necessary with a food systems approach to address the scientific basis for food security. Agricultureshould be analyzed in the context of ecosystem services looking at the ecological, economic and social basis forhuman well-being. Efficient decision support systems and general access to information are crucial components inorder to escape poverty. By using a conceptual framework for research on ecosystem services for povertyalleviation will it be possible to bend the curves and change the direction.

Need for integrated, multidisciplinary and international perspectives in research for

agricultural development in Africa

Thomas Rosswall, Chair CCAFS

The Anthropocene

“We’ve now entered a unique century, the first in the 45 million centuries of Earth’s history, in which one species – ours –could determine, for good or ill, the entire planet’s future”.

Lord Rees of LudlowPresident, the Royal Society of LondonEditorial in Science, 25 June 2010

UN MDG Summit 20-22 September 2010

"It is clear that improvements in the lives of the poor have been unacceptably slow, and some hard-won gains are being eroded by the climate, food and economic crises," UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon says in the foreword to the Millennium Development Goals Report

Millennium Development Goals

The number of undernourishedpeople is increasing, while we are constrained by:

NinePlanetary

Boundaries

Rockström et al., Nature, 461 472-475 (2009)

Trends in World Hunger

Rockström & Karlberg (Ambio 2010)

Human growth20/80 dilemma

Ecosystems60 % loss dilemma

Climate550/450/350

dilemma

Surprise99/1 dilemma

”The Quadruple Squeeze”

The Big Disconnect

Development and global changehave been addressed, researched,and funded as unrelated issues

A Question of Scale

Sachs et al. Nature 2010

28 September 2010 Agri4D

... and geographic diffrencesDifferences

Brazil Africa9

Global

IntegratedSiloed

Local

BusinessAs Usual

DevelopmentResearch

BusinessAs UsualGlobalChange

D4GΔDevelopment

for Global Change

Adapted from Sara Farley, The World Bank

The Opportunity

A Multifunctional Perspective of Agriculture

International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD, 2009)

A Changing Focus over Time

Smallholder Farmers in Africa

African Agriculture• No other continent has been so closely

connected to smallholder farming• Smallholders account for more than 90% of

production• More than 400 million farms of less than 2 ha

operated mainly as family farms• 25% have more than 2 ha, 50% have 0.5-2 ha

and 25% have ½ ha or less• Agriculture employs more than 60% of the

working population and contributes more than 35% of GDP in most African countries

Assefa Adamassie (2010)

Main Elements of Food Systems

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability• Allocation• Preference

• Nutritional Value• Social Value• Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production• Distribution• Exchange

GECAFS conceptual diagram

DRIVERInteractions

SocioeconomicDRIVERSChanges in:

Demographics, Economics,Socio-political context,

Cultural contextScience & Technology

GEC DRIVERSChanges in:

Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,

Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling,

Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level

‘Natural’DRIVERS

e.g. VolcanoesSolar cycles

Environmental feedbackse.g. water quality, GHGs

Socioeconomic feedbackse.g. livelihoods, social cohesion

Food System ACTIVITIESProducing food

Processing & Packaging foodDistributing & Retailing food

Consuming food

Food System OUTCOMESContributing to:

Social Welfare

EnvironWelfare

Food Utilisation

Food Access

Food Availability

Food Security

Analysing Food Systems

From GECAFS

Ecosystem Change for Human Well-being

Tools Needed

1. Ecology:“what’s where?”

2. Economics:“what’s it worth?”

3. Policy & finance:“who pays and how?”

Chan, et al. 2006. PLoS Biology

19

Tools Needed

1. Ecology:“what’s where?”

2. Economics:“what’s it worth?”

3. Policy & finance:“who pays and how?”

Net Present Value($ / ha)

Mbaracayu, Paraguay

Five services• Carbon storage• Sust. hunting• Sust. timber• Pharmaceuticals• Existence

Naidoo and Ricketts. 2006. PLoS Biology

$/ha NPV

Tools Needed

1. Ecology:“what’s where?”

2. Economics:“what’s it worth?”

3. Policy & finance:“who pays and how?”

The Climate Change Challenge

• Climate change will worsen the living conditions of farmers, fishers and forest-dependent people who are already vulnerable and food insecure

• Rural communities ... face an immediate and ever-growing risk of increased crop failure, loss of livestock, loss of fisheries ......

• Hunger and malnutrition will increase

FAO 2009

Projected Impacts of Climate Change

Stern Review (2008)

The CGIAR Approach

Trends in Rainfall Variability; Sahel

WMO (2006)

What are the adaptation options?

We are asking for a wide range of agricultural sector actors to change their behavior, to innovate, under conditions of incomplete and un-integrated markets, assymetricinformation & missing insurance and credit markets

The Challenge

Greenhouse Gas Production from Different Sectors in 2008

UN FCCC (2008)

What are the mitigation options?

Poverty Alleviation through Mitigation

Payments for GHG services

GHG Measuring and monitoring system

Trade-offs and Synergies: Food and Carbon (FAO 2009)

Failings in Decision Support

• Being driven by science alone (i.e., no clear users)

• Targeting the wrong decision-makers as users, or the right ones in the wrong way

• Failing to work across scales, given much source work in local case studies

• Omitting to identify and use the modes of engagement and leverage points

Mark Stafford-Smith (2010)

Research shows four key factors related to escape of poverty:

CellphonesEducation of girls and women

Access to mass media

Improved physical access to towns

P. Kristjanson (2010)

Conceptual FrameworkEcosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation

DFID, NERC, ESRC, LWEC (2010)

Per Olsson, SRC, 2009

What Next?