negative advertising in election campaingns
DESCRIPTION
See YouTube video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sd2btvyThuc Contrary to what people say, negative advertising is a useful and effective tool in election campaigns. The term negative is used to indicate that your opponent(s) are the focus of your advertising, while positive advertising has a focus on you. Positive advertising shows why you are the best option and negative advertising shows why your opponent is not the best option. Maybe a better term to use is COMPARATIVE advertising, with objective to compare and contrast options, which gives voters more information so that they can see the big picture rather than just the limited and exaggerated hype of a positive campaign. There is a lot of psychological strategy involved in a negative ad - maybe more than in a positive ad. The use of the primary emotions of fear and anger are used to either suppress or mobilize voters.TRANSCRIPT
Winning the Campaign
Nega%ve Campaigning
Željko Zidarić Civic Innova1on Incubator July 7, 2014
I inkubator
Anyone can become angry ��� - that is easy, but to be angry with the right person at the right time, and for the right purpose and in the right way ��� - that is not within everyone's power and that is not easy. Aristotle - Nicomachean Ethics Book II, 1109.a27
Act
ivist
s
Vide
o In
dex Negative Campaigning
• Introduction • Objectives • How it works • Your Offense Plan • Your Defense Plan
Introduction
Neg
ativ
e ad
s
The Wesleyan Media Project
Neg
ativ
ity
Negative
Contrast
Positive
2000 2004 2008 2012
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20%
19%
Oba
ma
McC
ain
Primary Election
June-November
68%
62%
18%
Neg
ativ
ity
Obama 30 min
Hope Change Fear
Professor William Benoit, Ohio University
Negative Campaign Ads
Ad
Type
s
Negative Opponent
Weaknesses
Positive You
Strengths
Benefits Costs
Who
le S
tory Opponent’s ���
Positive Campaign
Your ���Negative Campaign
Neg
ativ
e A
ds
Negative Opponent
Weaknesses
Comparative
Attack
Com
pare
Negative Opponent
Weaknesses
Compare Contrast
Attack
You + Them -
All about opponent
Info
rm Debate Character Intellect
Busi
ness
Negative Opponent
Weaknesses
Compare Contrast
Attack
Fear Uncertainty Doubt
Shoc
kver
tisin
g
Bacteria are lurking everywhere!
Shoc
kver
tisin
g
Polit
ics
Negative Opponent
Weaknesses
Compare Contrast
Attack
Fear (Anxiety) Anger
Disgust
argumentum ad metum
Them
es ✓ ✓
✓
✗ ✗ Person Policy
Past
Futu
re
Message
Tim
e Compare and ���contrast is good Democracy ��� requires negativity • Accountability • Criticize problems • Better Options
• Fully informed
What will happen
Costs Consequences
Full Story
Willing to pay price?
Them
es
Person Policy
Past
Futu
re
Message
Tim
e
But tell the
truth Th
emes
Person Policy
Past
Futu
re
Message
Tim
e
What happened
Accomplishments Failures
Opponent Failed
Them
es
Person Policy
Past
Futu
re
Message
Tim
e
Credibility
Unfit Not Capable
Opponent Will Fail
Them
es
Person Policy
Past
Futu
re
Message
Tim
e
Character
Morals Trust
Oooops
Them
es
Person Policy
Past
Futu
re
Message
Tim
e
War
ning
argumentum ad hominem
is not valid debate tactic
When the debate is lost,
slander becomes the
tool of the loser. - Socrates
Objectives
Win
ning
✗ 50%
of voters +1
Win
ning
✔ 50%
of votes +1
Critical bit
Total Voters
Total Votes
10% might not vote
30% already decided
20% persuadable
40% will not vote
Obj
ectiv
e
Independent Undecided
2 Pa
rty
Democrat Republican
Mobilize your
supporters
Suppress their
supporters
Independent Undecided
2 Pa
rty
Democrat Republican
Suppress the middle
Center
Mul
ti Pa
rty
Progressive Conservative
Conservative Party
Liberal Party
New Democrat
Party
Undecided
Center
Mul
ti Pa
rty
Progressive Conservative
Undecided
Party 3 Party 2
Party 1 Party 4
Swin
g St
ates 800,000 independent voters
in 12 swing states
Opi
nion I do not agree with ���
voter suppression ���
because I see it as a manipulative
strategy to prevent people from
exercising their democratic ���
rights and obligations.
How i
How it works
Cave
man
Pol
itics
Nega1ve Bias = Survival
Loss
Ave
rsio
n
Is everyone doing their part?
Loss
Ave
rsio
n The pain of loss ���is almost twice as strong as the reward felt from a gain Pl
easu
re
Pain
Loss Gain
Small Pleasure
Big Pain Counter-balanced by
Optimism bias
• Confirmation bias • Negativity bias • In-group bias • Gambler’s fallacy • Observational selection bias • Status-quo bias • Bandwagon effect • Projection bias • Current moment bias • Anchoring effect Co
gniti
ve B
iase
s
Def
ense
Sys
tem
Force fie
ld
Fear
Anger
Humor Positive
Promise
Hope
Proc
ess
• Fear • Anger • Disgust • Hope
Emotion
Reason
Adoration Attraction Affection Fondness
Compassion Passion Caring Liking
Longing Tenderness
Love Joy Sadness Anger Fear
Pleasure Enthusiasm Happiness Satisfaction Eagerness
Cheerfulness Optimism
Contentment Relief Pride Zest
Grief Sorrow Misery
Disappointment Hopelessness
Depression Despair
Unhappiness Loneliness
Shame Regret
Remorse
Frustration Irritation
Exasperation Resentment
Torment Rage
Disgust Agitation
Envy Jealousy Bitterness
Hate
Anxiety Worry
Distress Horror Dread Shock Terror Fright Panic
Hysteria Apprehension
Emot
ions
F A
D
Flight Fight Avoid
Fear
Flight Fear is a response to a stimulus perceived as a threat ���– either now or in future. • Rapid decisions • Black or white thinking • Herd mentality
Ang
er
Fight Anger is a response related to psychological interpretation of having been threatened. • Powerful tool • Catalyst for action • Optimism + control • Respected response
Dis
gust Avoid
Disgust is a feeling of revulsion to the unhealthy. • Risk minimization • Preventative response • Withdraw + avoid • Long tem imprint
Contempt = Anger + Disgust
Dis
gust
ing?
Mylie Cyrus
Dis
gust
ing?
Good role model for our daughters?
Dis
gust
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2 Disgust S
ensi1
vity
Conserva1ves are more easily disgusted than Liberals
Inbar, Pizarro, Iyer & Haidt (2012) “Disgust sensitivity, political conservatism and voting”
N = 29,623 in USA
Neuroscientist Paul D. MacLean, 1960s
The
Brai
n 3 1. Rep%lian
FEAR Fight or Flight
2. Limbic Emo1ons + Values amygdala hijacking
3. Neocortex Ra1onal Thought
2
1
System 2 D
ual P
roce
ss
Fast and easy
Slow and difficult
System 1
Dua
l Pro
cess 1890 William James Associative True Reason
1986 Petty & Cacioppo Peripheral Central
1996 Steven Sloman Associative Rule Based
2000 Stanovich & West System 1 System 2
2003 Daniel Kahneman Intuitive Reasoning
2004 Strack & Deutch Impulsive Reflective
2011 Daniel Kahneman Fast Slow
Fast
or S
low
Fast
or S
low
Cumulative Resources
Cum
ulat
ive
Valu
e Cr
eate
d 80%
98%
X 2X
Fast System 1
Slow System 2
Fast
AN
D S
low
Slow You System 2
Fast You System 1
Your Offense Plan
Goa
ls
Negative ads that work aren’t ‘negative.’ ������They are ‘hard-hitting issue ads about our opponent’s record of shame!’ Alex Castellanos Republican strategist
All
Posi
tive 2004 ���
“No Negative” Campaign ������It doesn’t pay to be a Boy scout.
Proc
ess
Effor
t & E
xpen
se
Elec
tion
Elec
tion Election
Campaign
Positive Campaign Educate
Negative Feel
Negative Positive
Proc
ess
Duration
Effor
t & E
xpen
se
Elec
tion
Elec
tion Election
Campaign
Prepare Negative
Prepared Pr
econ
ditio
n re
port
ers
Educ
ate
vote
rs
Prep
arat
ion
“It’s not the will to win that matters - everyone has that. It’s the will to prepare to win that matter.” - Paul “Bear” Bryant
Rese
arch
Strengths Weaknesses
Opportunities Threats
Inte
rnal
Exte
rnal
Star
t Tim
e
E-Day C-start ? ? ?
When to start? - The sooner the better, but ….
Resources
Broke
Too early?
Too late?
Ad
Budg
et
The Wesleyan Media Project
Daily Num
ber o
f Ads
Repu
blican
Democrat
5,000
5,000
-‐140 -‐120 -‐100 -‐80 -‐60 -‐40 -‐20 0
Days to Elec1on
2008 Daily Democra1c and Republican Ads
Elec1o
n Da
y
Neg
ativ
e Ti
min
g
Duration
AS %
of t
otal
ads
Elec
tion
100%
50%
Scenario B
Scenario C
Negative Campaign Expenses
Scenario A
Targ
ets
Media
Voters
Opponent Put opponent on defensive
Influence them to investigate - get earned media
Influence • suppress the undecided • force voters to reassess • mobilize your support base.
Influ
ence
Rip
ples
David Armano
1
3 3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4 4
4
4
4
4
2
2
2 X
3
4
4
2 4
You
3rd Party
You can’t make the campaign about something
people don’t want the campaign to be about.
Independent Undecided
Neg
ativ
e
Progressive Conservative
Motivate and Mobilize your core
Demotivate and Suppress their core
Neg
ativ
e
Progressive Conservative
Motivate and Mobilize your core
Anger
Fight
Neg
ativ
e
Progressive Conservative
Demotivate and Suppress their core
Fear
Flight
Independent Undecided
Neg
ativ
e
Progressive Conservative
Suppress the middle
Posi
tive
Optimism Happiness
2016: Obama's America 2012 documentary by conservative author |���and commentator Dinesh D'Souza. July 13, 2012 (limited) August 24, 2012 (wide Run Time 89 minutes Budget $2.5 million N
egat
ive
v2.0
Valid
ate
Test before you attack!
Know
Opp
onen
t
If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles.
Sun Tzu, The Art of War
Hon
esty
in A
ds People want ads that are:
• More about issues than traits • Issues that relate to governing • Be more specific than vague • Prove it through documenta1on
Nega)ve ads are more about real issues than are posi)ve ads
John C. Greer, In Defense of Nega1vity
Topi
cs
Attack your opponent where you are strongest - make opponent part of your story 1. About the public record and issues
2. What the costs of their policies will be 1. Past policies 2. Future Policies
3. Qualifications of your opponent 1. Experience: Have they been in office before? 2. Traits: Do they flip-flop? 3. Out of touch?
Topi
cs
1. Be Fair: Make sure you throw clean mud! • Factual and documented
2. Us substantive arguments 3. Say something positive about your opponent ���
then disagree
4. Use negative ads judiciously • Strategically timed • Use in moderation at proper intervals
5. Graphic and audio design = emotion
Play
book
s
Karl Rove Saul Alinsky
Righ
t - K
arl R
ove
Rovian Counter-thrust Take away your opponents
competitive advantage
The Rovian Playbook: Campaign Tac1cs
Tac1c 1: Take the offensive Tac1c 2: Aaack your opponent’s strengths Tac1c 3: Accuse your opponent of what they will accuse you of Tac1c 4: Go Nega1ve, then cry foul Tac1c 5: The “Big Lie” Tac1c 6: Appeal to moral values Tac1c 7 Sell the Bush persona Tac1c 8: Sell an adolescent worldview Tac1c 9: Exploit the media Tac1c 10: Create straw issues Tac1c 11: Employ surrogates Tac1c 12: Use emo1onal appeals Tac1c 13: Rely on expert tes1monials Tac1c 14: Rhetorical devices Tac1c 15: Use of language
Saul Alinsky – Rules for Radicals
1. Power is not only what you have ��� but what the enemy thinks you have.
2. Never go outside the experience of your people. 3. Go outside the experience of the enemy. 4. Make the enemy live up to their own book of rules. 5. Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon. 6. A good tactic is one that your people enjoy. 7. A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag. 8. Keep the pressure on. 9. The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself. 10. If you push a negative hard and deep enough it will break through. 11. The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative. 12. Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it. Left
- Sa
ul A
linsk
y
Play
book
s Obama teaching the Alinsky Model
Your Defense Plan
Be R
eady
Duration
Effor
t & E
xpen
se
Elec
tion
Elec
tion Election
Campaign
Prepare Negative
Prepared
By failing to prepare, ���you are preparing to fail. ― Benjamin Franklin
Stay
on
Cour
se
Opponent story
Your story
Elec
tion
Pull off story
Stay on story
Def
ense Stay on
Message
Counter attack Add to your story
Ignore Frivolous
Strong Rebuttal On Core Issues
Def
ense
Admit
Deny
Deflect
Stonewall
Formal fallacies Proposi1onal fallacies Quan1fica1on fallacies Formal syllogis1c fallacies Red herring fallacies • associa1on fallacy • appeal to emo1on • argumentum ad hominum • argumentum ad populum • argumentum ad baculum • argumentum ad consequen1am
Informal fallacies • false aaribu1on • if-‐by-‐whiskey • moral high ground • moralis1c fallacy • moving the goalposts • onus probandi • pe11o principii • argumentum ad nauseam • argumentum ad temperan1am • argumentum e silen1o • cum hoc ergo propter hoc • circulus in demonstrando
Logi
c Fa
llaci
es
Out
of T
ouch
?
Be the People
Be P
ositi
ve
Stay Humble
Be P
ositi
ve
Our strength does not come ���from what we fight against ���but from what we fight for.