Negative Campaigns

• As a strategy– Classic examples– What lessons– Always wrong?– What effects?

• Turnout

• Voter opinions

• Blow-back

Negative Campaings

• Classic examples– Begs questions:

• What is negative?

• What is unfair?

Negative Campaigns

• Classic examples– LBJ Daisy Girl ad– 1964 vs. Barry Goldwater Ad– Just once

• What are voters supposed to hear?

• What did they hear?– Vote LBJ, or they’ll nuke your kid

Negative Campaigns

• Classic Examples– Willie Horton– 1988 Bush I vs. Dukakis– Lee Atwater… “only question, which hand”– Just once (or twice)

• How define candidate?

• Why able to define candidate?

Negative Campaigns

• Classic examples– Willie Horton

• Why did this one reach legend status?– Aired only once ‘anonymously’– Spawned free coverage– Woven into ‘official’ message– Opinion shifted

Negative Campaigns

• Classic examples– Bush v. Dukakis 1988– Willie Horton tip of genius iceberg– Bush campaign could define an unknown

candidate (see Gary Hart ‘ 84, below)– Dukakis made it easy on them TANK AD– Media felt guilty, took it out on Bush I in 1992?

Negative Campaigns?

• Dukakis had it coming?

• Tank photo among 100 photos that change the World– Anne Frank portrait– Fire hoses and dogs in Birmingham, AL– Tienneman Square (tank standoff)

Negative Campaigns

• Classic example– Jesse Helms, Hands– 1990 US Senate vs. Harvey Gantt

• Context matters– Helms campaign guilty of letters threatening

black voters with jail if they voted– “qualifications don’t matter…”

Negative Campaigns

• Classic examples– Chambliss vs Max Cleland US Senate 2002– Karl Rove painting. Vietnam vet as unpatriotic

• Link conservative Dem to OsBL – Could ad have happened if not for 9/11?– Bill Clinton recently said MoveOn ad lowest

thing since this

Negative Campaigns

• More recent examples– 2004 National elections– Karl Rove– GOP, “These are the stakes”

• Democrats = you will die?– at least that’s how they spun it

Negative Campaigns

• Recent examples

• Bush v. Kerry, 2004– SwiftBoat Vets

• Independent hit from 527 org

• Windsurfing– Just for fun…– Policy content? No appeal to fear?

Negative Campaigns

• Recent examples– McCain 2008– Obama 2008

Negative Campaigns

• What lessons• Some on winning side, some on losing side• Potential to define a candidate

– Goldwater, Dukakis, Kerry

• Potential to de-mobilize (this may be goal)• Potential for blowback

– Clinton ‘08 (3am ad)

Negative Campaigns

• When wrong• What criteria to say, too negative?

– Fear– Race– Religion– Policy?– Do we learn something…(other than fear, race,

religion..)

The Virtue of Negative Ads

• What effects; Prof. John G. Geer

• Is there policy content/ learning– To change, to hold accountable, to change

status quo needs being critical– Must have ‘vetting’

• Analysis of ballot initiative ads

• The Geer ad