neo-carbon energy down under · 2016-03-31 · neo-carbon energy down under australian energy case...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Neo-Carbon EnergyDown Under
Australian energy case
Prof. Sirkka HeinonenFinland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku
5th Researchers' Seminar/Neo-Carbon Energy ProjectLUT, Lappeenranta 15th February, 2016
![Page 2: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Australia
Mooloolaba
Sydney
Melbourne
Perth
AustraliaDarwin
Brisbane
For WP1:New CaseDifferent from other casesParadoxicalEnergy + Futures StudiesAustralia + China
![Page 3: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Facts about Australia• Australia is a federation that consists of six states (New South
Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria andWestern Australia) & 10 territories
• The estimated resident population 24 million people (2016)• Total area of mainland is 7.69 million square km, making Australia
the world’s largest island - but smallest continent• Three levels of government
1) The federal Australian Government2) The governments of the six states and two territories3) Ca. 700 local government authorities
• Monarchy, Queen Elizabeth II• Two major political groups that usually form federal/state
government, the Australian Labor Party, and the Coalition of theLiberal Party and its minor partner the National Party.
• This majority party/coalition becomes the government.• The other major political party or coalition is called ‘the
opposition’. This is decided in an election by citizens
Sources:1) http://www.australia.gov.au/about-government/how-government-works/state-and-territory-government
2) Australian Bureau of Statistics (2016). Retrieved 11.2.2016 from http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3101.03) http://www.australia.com/en/facts.html
![Page 4: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Australian Energy Landscape
Energy White Paper at a glance (2015)
![Page 5: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Australian Energy LandscapeSupply and use,
by components – 2013–2014
ABS 2016 http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/ProductsbyReleaseDate/5E025753112D1A80CA2578800019C952?OpenDocument
• The export market accounts for 83% ofAustralian energy extraction.
• Energy exports in 2013-14 were approximately15,718 PJ, an increase of 2% from 2012-13.
• Australia’s main exports were black coal (10,578PJ or 67%), uranium (3,149 PJ or 20%) andnatural gas (1,267 PJ or 8%).
• The Mining industry was the largest supplier ofenergy in 2012-13, supplying 19,622 PJ of totalenergy worth $75 billion.
• While this was a 1,956 PJ or 11% increase on2011-12 volumes, the value of energy suppliedby the industry fell by 11% or $9 billion.
• Black coal supply increased by 9% or 905 PJ from2011-12 to 2012-13.
• However, the value of black coal supply fell by19% or $9 billion due to falling prices.
• Imports of crude oil and petroleum products(petrol, diesel and other refined fuels) werevalued at $17 billion each.
• Together these two products comprised 96% ofthe value of energy products imported ($35billion) into Australia in 2012-13.
![Page 6: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Net Energy Use by Industry
ABS 2016 http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/ProductsbyReleaseDate/5E025753112D1A80CA2578800019C952?OpenDocumenthttps://bze.org.au/media/newswire/australia-wind-power-already-cheaper-fossil-fuels-and-solar-right-behind-130211
• Extensive non-renewable energy resources, including oil, coal, gas and uranium• Australia possesses ca 10% of global recoverable black coal resources
![Page 7: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Domestic Net Energy Use by Industry
ABS 2016 http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/ProductsbyReleaseDate/5E025753112D1A80CA2578800019C952?OpenDocument
![Page 8: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Australian Energy Landscape/Households• Energy use per Australian household decreased by 1 GJ from
2012-13 to 2013-14 at the same time as the number ofhouseholds increased by approximately 165,000.
• Since 2002-03, energy use per capita has decreased by 5% andper household by 7%
• The total energy use by Australian households has increased by13% from 2002-03 to 2013-14, while the number of Australianhouseholds increased by 21% and the population grew 19%.
• Household renewable energy extraction has increased by 38%from 2002-03 to 2013-14 including an increase of 5% from2012-13 to 2013-14.
ABS 2016 http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/ProductsbyReleaseDate/5E025753112D1A80CA2578800019C952?OpenDocument
![Page 9: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
2015: Renewable Energy Target (RET)• More than 23.5 % of Australia’s electricity being derived from
renewable sources by 2020.• The 33,000 gigawatt hour Renewable Energy Target will not be
reviewed until 2020. This will give the renewable energyindustry the certainty it needs to grow.
• The Clean Energy Regulator will provide an annual statement toParliament on how the scheme is tracking towards the 2020target, and any impact the RET is having on electricity prices.
https://www.environment.gov.au/minister/hunt/2015/pubs/mr20150623.pdf
![Page 10: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
2015 Energy White PaperAn integrated Australian energy policyframework by the Australian Government
2015 Energy White Paper, p. 2.
![Page 11: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
The Paradox• Australian solar industry […] pioneers the best
technology in the world• i.e. UNSW School of Photovoltaic and
Renewable Energy Engineering• The highest rates of solar penetration and
lowest costs in the world at a residential level• Renewable energy becoming cheaper than
new-build coal• RE an enormous export opportunity• Yet: Coal-fired power industry supported with
subsidies, fossil fuel research supported
”Australia is not an innovation nation, it’s an inertia nation”- Danny Kennedy 2015
Sources: 1) Kennedy (2015)2) http://about.bnef.com/press-releases/renewable-energy-now-cheaper-than-new-fossil-fuels-in-australia/Photo: CSIRO [CC BY 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], lähde: Wikimedia Commons
![Page 12: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Australian Energy Landscape
Energy White Paper at a glance (2015)
![Page 13: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
National Energy Productivity Plan2015–2030 (NEPP)
Source: National Energy Productivity Plan 2015–2030
![Page 14: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Examples of NEPP measures
Source: National Energy Productivity Plan 2015–2030
![Page 15: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
State of New South Wales• New South Wales has the largest
renewable energy and sustainabilitysectors in Australia
• Backed by major government andprivate sector initiatives.
• Abundant and world-class renewableenergy resources
• Well positioned to attract futureinvestment
• Research and development facilitiespaving the way for performanceimprovements across all majorrenewable energy sources
http://www.industry.nsw.gov.au/business-and-industry-in-nsw/key-industry-sectors/renewable
![Page 16: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
National Solar Schools Program(–2013)
Over $217 million was provided to 5,310 schools(or almost 60 per cent of all Australian schools)to install renewable energy systems, rainwatertanks and a range energy efficiency measures.
• The solar power systems installed produceenough electricity to power the equivalent of4600 average households every day.
• The funding helped to educate students aboutrenewable energy and energy efficiency, andthat everyday actions can prevent theproduction of millions of tonnes of carbonpollution.
http://www.industry.gov.au/Energy/Programmes/SolarSchoolsProgram/Pages/default.aspx
![Page 17: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
The Solar Towns Programme• Part of the Australian Government’s commitment
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
• Funding of $2.1 million (GST exclusive) is providedfor the programme to support communityorganisations who wish to install a renewableenergy system (solar photovoltaic panels or a solarhot water system only) on an existing building thatprovides support to the local community.
• The Australian Government has made acommitment to install renewable energy systems inpreselected community sites and regions.
https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/renewable-energy/solar-towns
![Page 18: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
© Sirkka Heinonen
RADICALSTARTUPS
VALUE-DRIVEN TECHEMOTHS
GREEN DIY ENGINEERS
NEW CONSCIOUSNESS
FOUR SCENARIOS +ENERGY IMPLICATIONS
Heinonen, Sirkka – Karjalainen, Joni & Ruotsalainen, Juho(2015), Towards the third industrial revolution. NEO-CARBON ENERGY project Future Clinique I ”Creating theThird Industrial Revolution” 6.5.2015 FFRC eBook 6/2015.Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku. 74 p.ISBN 978-952-249-394-1, ISSN 1797-1322.https://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/FFRC-eBook-6-2015.pdf
![Page 19: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
AUSTRALIA VIA HONG KONGThird Industrial Revolution through Energy Transition Case: Neo-Carbon Energy Scenarios 2050
Hong Kong meetings with foresight analysts and Finnish Consulate:Justine Tang, Les Hales, Alan Lung, Consul General, Innovation Consul.Technology Innovation Centre estbl.
![Page 20: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
MELBOURNE
Melbourne Futures HUB Roundtable 19.11.2015with foresight and energy experts + urban solutionsSwinburne University of Technology/Peter Hayward/Richard Slaughter
Charles Brass AHRI Convention 2014 Future of Australians at work 2020https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeDD-f3Lcgk
Automotive manufacturing ends in Australia
![Page 21: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
MELBOURNECSIROurban solutionsAustralia’s growth and way of life isunderpinned by access to affordableand sustainable energy sources.CSIRO leading the way in thedevelopment of low cost,environmentally friendly productionmethods and flexible materials thatcould change how and wherephotovoltaic energy can be generatedWave energy.
In the lead-up to December’s Paris climate change conference, the Australian Governmentcommitted to the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 per cent below 2005Melbourne Energy Institute: ENERGY FUTURES SEMINAR 16th Febr 2016: Climate policyin 2016: The hard task of delivering on our international commitment
![Page 22: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
MOOLOOLABAUNIVERSITY OF SUNSHINE COAST
Visiting Lecture + expert discussion at Univ. Sunshine Coast, Australia.Faculty of Art and Business. Futures Program Co-ordinated by Dr. Marcus Bussey(Graduate Certificate in Futures Studies)Sustainable Development
Mobile portable & foldable PV-> Mobile café van
![Page 23: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
MOOLOOLABAPermaculture Village CRYSTAL WATERS
Prof. Sohail InayatullahDebveloper of CLA methodSee CLA Game Report:Heinonen, Sirkka, Balcom Raleigh, Nicolas, Karjalainen,Joni, Minkkinen, Matti, Parkkinen, Marjukka &Ruotsalainen, Juho (2015). CLA GAME REPORT: CausalLayered Analysis Game on Neo-Carbon EnergyScenarios. FFRC eBOOK 12/2015. Finland FuturesResearch Centre, University of Turku. 112 p. ISBN 978-952-249-403-0, ISSN 1797-1322.http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/eBook_12-2015.pdf
![Page 24: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
BRISBANE
Solar-poweredChristmas tree
QUT Queensland University of Technology + urban solutions
![Page 25: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
BRISBANE
Urban VisionsMeeting with Sandvik repr.
SYDNEYVulnerable to Flooding
![Page 26: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
SYDNEY
Meets with Club of Rome members+ Gov repr. +urban solutions + Coal Moratorium
Feedback for Scenarios
![Page 27: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Kiribati, an island republic in the CentralPacific, comprises 33 coral atollsstretching along the equator. Withlagoons and white-sand beaches, manyof its islands are uninhabited, offering aremote setting for fishing, diving andbird-watching
COAL MORATORIUMNo New Coal MinesPublished inNew ScientistAnd Guardian
![Page 28: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
©VirpiVaattovaara
Thank You!sirkka.heinonen (at) utu.fi
NEXT in Phase II
Working paper on Australian resultsFeedback from the intervieweesCriteria for evaluating the potential of neo-carbon scenarios for case countriesElectricity markets reflections per case
![Page 29: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
REFERENCES
2015 Energy White Paper (2015). Australian Government: Department of Industry andScience. Retrieved 12 February 2016 fromhttp://ewp.industry.gov.au/sites/prod.ewp/files/EnergyWhitePaper.pdf
2015 Energy White Paper at a glance (2015). Australian Government: Department ofIndustry and Science. Retrieved 12 February 2016 fromhttp://ewp.industry.gov.au/sites/prod.ewp/files/EnergyWhitePaper-AtAGlance.pdf
Heinonen, Sirkka, Karjalainen, Joni and Ruotsalainen, Juho (2015). Towards the ThirdIndustrial Revolution. Neo-Carbon Energy Futures Clinique I. eBook 6/2015. FinlandFutures Research Centre, 74 p. http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/FFRC-eBook-6-2015.pdf
Heinonen, Sirkka (2014). What is Futures Reseach and Scenario Thinking? Lecture atUniversity of Buenos Aires (UBA), Departamento de Computación 18th November 2014.During the Secondment at FLACSO and CIECTI, Buenos Aires (November 2014). 50ppt slides. www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY4NGAfdhJU
![Page 30: Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under · 2016-03-31 · Neo-Carbon Energy Down Under Australian energy case Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku 5th Researchers](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042911/5f452caf4f9b0a4436244cd4/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Heinonen, Sirkka, Balcom Raleigh, Nicolas, Karjalainen, Joni, Minkkinen, Matti,Parkkinen, Marjukka & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2015). CLA Game Report : CausalLayered Analysis on Neo-Carbon Energy Scenarios. FFRC eBook 12/2015.Turku: Finland Futures Research Centre.http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/eBook_12-2015.pdf
Kiinteistöposti (2016). Suomi 100-prosenttisesti uusiutuvan energian maaksi?Kiinteistöposti 1/2016. 18–24.
Kennedy, Danny (2015). Solar Energy: Australia is not an innovation nation, it‘s aninertia nation. Guardian 17 December 2015. Accessed 11 February 2016 fromhttp://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/dec/18/solar-energy-australia-is-not-an-innovation-nation-its-an-inertia-nation
National Energy Productivity Plan 2015–2030 (2015). Australian Government.Retrieved 11 February 2016 fromhttps://scer.govspace.gov.au/files/2015/12/National-Energy-Productivity-Plan-release-version-FINAL.pdf
Reunanen, Liisa (2015). Huomisen energia on puhdasta – ja se on jo täällä.Aurora 3/2015. 10–17.