Technical Analysis 1. Market Summary (as of Sept 19, 2014)

Nepse at close last week (Sept 18, 2014) 899.89

Nepse high last week (Sept 16, 2014) 919.88

Weekly Change - 10.76 (or - 1.18 %)

Daily Volume (Avg.) NPR 36.59 crores

Total Traded Amount (weekly) NPR 1.83 billion

Immediate Resistance 920.06

Immediate Support 866.25

RSI 39.54

MACD Line - 26.36

Signal Line - 25.97

Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Sept 18, 2014)

2. Market Trend

Nepse fell during the first day of the trading week, which was followed by two up days and then ended lower during the last two days. The market was looking for a clear-cut direction, however, the market traded mostly sideways over the week. By the end of the week, Nepse had declined by 10.76 points (or - 1.18%) to close at 899.89 points. The volume situation remained weak during the period as investors traded NPR 36.59 crores per day on average. This is a slight fall from the previous week when the average volume hit NPR 44.34 crores each day. In recent times, Nepse has been hovering between the support level of 866.25 points and resistance level of 920.06 points, as it has not been able to move past this resistance level. Due to upcoming festival season, investors’ appetite towards the secondary market has been low in recent times.

3. RSI

RSI is a form of leading indicator that is believed to be most effective during periods of sideways movement. Such indicators may create numerous buy and sell signals that are useful when the market is not clearly trending upwards or downwards. The RSI made some movements in the upward direction but it could not carry the momentum ahead. By the end of the week, the RSI decreased very slightly to 36.79 levels from 36.88 levels. As a result, the RSI continues to hover in the lower neutral zone.

RSI (Dec 01, 2013 – Sept 18, 2014)

4. MACD The MACD is a momentum oscillator formed by using two different types of moving averages, which provides specific buying or selling signals. When a MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is considered to be a positive sign and indicates a time to buy, and vice-versa. In contrast to the past several weeks, the MACD indicator witnessed a change in momentum. Though the Signal line continued in the downward direction, the MACD line (or the near term momentum) began trending upwards. If the MACD line crosses above the Signal line, this would represent a buy signal.

MACD (Dec 01, 2013 – Sept 18, 2014)

5. Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Band is a technical indicator that consists of a moving average (21-day) along with two trading bands above (upper band) and below it (lower band). The bands are an indication of volatility, which are represented by calculating standard deviation. The Bollinger Bands chart shows Nepse moving mostly sideways this week as it moves closer to the mid band. The upper band continued its downward trend while the lower band witnessed sideways movement. If Nepse moves past the mid band, this would indicate a buy signal.

Bollinger Bands (Dec 01, 2013 – Sept 18, 2014)

Overview: The market witnessed another week of decline as Nepse fell by 10.76 points (or - 1.18%) to close at 899.89 points. However, the high selling pressure witnessed in the previous weeks declined as market made efforts to stabilize. The volume remained weak as NPR 36.59 crores were traded on average each day compared to NPR 44.34 crores the week before. Nepse is currently hovering between its nearest support and resistance levels of 866.26 and 920.06 points. The RSI saw a slight decline from 36.88 to 36.79 levels. The MACD line began moving in the upward direction suggesting that the near term momentum has been shifting. If MACD crosses above the Signal line, this would indicate a buy signal. The long moving average or Signal line still shows a downward trend. The Bollinger Bands indicate that the market may be beginning to stabilize with lower market volatility in recent times. Overall, the market may look for a clear-cut direction next week, however, there has to be a significant improvement in the overall market volume.

k|fljlws ljZn]if0f

ahf/ ;f/f+z -efb| @( b]vL cflZjg @ ;Ddsf]_

aGb cª\s -cflZjg @_ M *((=*(

pRr cª\s -efb| #!_ M (!(=**

;fKtflxs kl/jt{g M –!)=&^ cª\s -–!=!* k|ltzt_

b}lgs cf};t Jofkf/ M ¿= #^=%( s/f]8

s'n ;fKtflxs Jofkf/ M ¿= ! ca{ *# s/f]8

tTsflng 6]jf M (@)=)^

tTsflng k|lt/f]w M *^^=@%

cf/P;cfO{ M #(=%$

PdP;L8L M –@^=#^

l;Ugn nfO{g M –@%=(&

%) tyf @)) lbg] d'leª Pe/]h

;ftfsf] klxnf] sf/f]af/ lbg g]K;] 36]sf] lyof],/ To;sf] b'O{ lbg;Dd g]K;] a9] klg clGtd b'O{ lbg eg] g]K;]

k]m/L 36]sf] lyof] . ahf/n] :ki6 lbzf lgb]{zg vf]h] klg o; ;ftf ahf/ t];f]{ g} /x\of] . xKtfsf] cGTo;Dd eg]

g]K;] !)=&^ cª\sn] -jf !=!* k|ltzt_ n] 36]/ *((=*( cª\sdf aGb ePsf] 5 . o; ;ftf Jofkf/ -ef]No"d_

sdhf]/ /x\of] / cf}iftdf b}lgs #^=%( s/f]8 ?k}Fof a/fa/sf] sf/f]af/ ePsf] 5 h'g ut xKtf $$=#$ s/f]8

?k}Fof /x]sf] lyof] . xfnsf] ;dodf, g]K;]n] k|lt/f]w tx kf/ ug{ ;s]sf] 5}g / of] *^^=@% cª\ssf] ;dy{g tx /

(@)=)^ cª\ssf] k|lt/f]w tx lar al;/x]sf] 5 . cfpFbf] kj{ df};dsf sf/0f, xfnsf] ;dodf nufgLstf{x?sf]

ahf/ k|ltsf] efj sd /x]sf] 5 .

Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – September 18, 2014)

l/n]l6j :6«]Gy OG8]S; -cf/P;cfO{_

cf/P;cfO{ k|fljlws ljZn]if0fsf] o:tf] cf}hf/ xf], h;nfO{ Pstlkm{ ?kdf rln/x]sf] ahf/df Jofkf/ /0fgLlt

agfpg a9L pkof]uL dflgG5 . To;}u/L, o;n] ahf/df vl/b / ljlqmsf] :ki6 ;+s]t b]vfpg] u5{ . o; ;ftf,

cf/P;cfO{ yf]/} a9\g] lbzf /x]tf klg of] k|j[lt hf/L /x]g . xKtfsf] cGTo;Dd, cf/P;cfO{ #^=** cª\saf6

#^=&( cª\sdf yf]/} 36]sf] lyof] . kmn:j?k, cf/P;cfO{ t6:y If]qd} /x]sf] 5 .

RSI (Jan 01, 2013 – September 18, 2014)

d'leª Pe/]h sGeh]{G; 8fOeh]{G; -PdP;L8L_

PdP;L8Ldf b'O{ cf]6f /]vf x'G5g\, h;df Pp6fn] ahf/sf] lbzf kl/jt{gsf] ;+s]t u5{ eg] csf]{n] ahf/sf] k|j[lQ

-6«]08_ b]vfpg] u5{ . olb PdP;L8L /]vfn] l;Ung /]vfnfO{ tnaf6 dfly sf6]df o;nfO{ ;sf/fTds ;+s]tsf

?kdf lnO{G5 / o;n] z]o/x? lsGg] ;+s]t ub{5 . ljut s]lx xKtf ljk/Lt, Pd;L8L ;"rssf] ultdf s]lx

kl/jt{g b]lvPsf] 5 . l;Ugn /]vf 36\g] lbzfdf /x]tf klg, PdP;L8L /]vf -jf lgs6 cjlw k|j[lt /]vf_ a9\g]

k|j[ltdf /x\of] . olb Pd;L8L /]vfn] l;Ugn /]vfnfO{ tnaf6 sf6]df o;n] z]o/ vl/b ug]{ ;+s]t ug]{5 .

MACD (Jan 01, 2013 – September 18, 2014)

af]lnª\u/ Aof08

af]lnª\u/ Aof08 Ps k|fljlws ljZn]if0f ;"rs xf] h;df @!–lbg] d'leË Pe/]hsf ;fy b'O{ Aof08 -Pp6f dfly_

/ Pp6f tn_ x'G5g\ . lo Aof08x?n] cl:y/tfsf] ;+s]t ub{5g\, h'g :6fG88{ 8]leP;g u0fgf u/]/ kQf nufO{G5

. af]lnª\u/ Aof08 rf6{n] g]K;] dWo Aof08 glhs /x]sf] / o; ;ftf g]K;] t];f]{ al9 /x]sf] b]vfPsf] 5 . dflyNnf]

Aof08 36\g] lbzfdf /x]sf] lyof] eg] tNnf] Aof08 t];f]{ g} /x\of] . olb g]K;]n] dWo Aof08 kf/ u/]df o;n] z]o/

vl/b ug]{ ;+s]t ug]{5 .

Bollinger Bands (Jan 01, 2013 – September 18, 2014)

;du{dfM

o; ;ftf klg ahf/df csf]{ lu/fj6 b]lvPsf] 5 / g]K;] !)=&^ cª\s -jf !=!* k|ltzt_ n] 36]/ *((=*(

cª\sdf aGb ePsf] ePsf] 5 . t/, cl3Nnf] xKtfsf] t'ngfdf ahf/df z]o/ a]Rg] bafa sd b]lvPsfn] ahf/

s]lx l:y/ /x\of] . o; ;ftf Jofkf/ -ef]No"d_ sdhf]/ /x\of] / cf}iftdf b}lgs #^=%( s/f]8 ?k}Fof a/fa/sf]

sf/f]af/ ePsf] 5 h'g ut xKtf $$=#$ s/f]8 ?k}Fof /x]sf] lyof] . xfn g]K;]] *^^=@^ cª\ssf] ;dy{g /

(@)=)^ cª\ssf] k|lt/f]w tx lar /x]sf] 5 . cf/P;cfO{ eg] #^=** cª\saf6 yf]/} 36]/ #^=&^ cª\sdf k'u]sf]

5 . PdP;L8L /]vf eg] a9\g] lbzfdf /x]sf] 5 h;n] lgs6 eljiosf] k|j[lt abln/x]sf] ;+s]t u/]sf] 5 . olb

PdP;L8L /]vfn] l;Ugn /]vfnfO{ tnaf6 sf6]df o;n] z]o/ lsGg] ;+s]t ug]{5 . lb3{sfnLg k|j[lt jf l;Ugn

/]vf eg] 36\g] k|j[ltdf /x]sf] 5 . af]lnª\u/ Aof08n] xfnsf] ;dodf ahf/df cl:y/tf 3l6/x]sf] h;n] ahf/

l:y/ x'g yfn]sf] ;+s]t u/]sf] 5 . ;du|df, csf]{ xKtf ahf/n] Ps :ki6 lbzf vf]Hg ;Sg] 5, t/ To;sf nflu

;du| Jofkf/ -ef]No"d_ df dxTjk"0f{ ;'wf/ cfpg h?/L /x]sf] 5 .