nest learning thermostat: can you teach an old ......aesp’s spring conference portland, or...

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Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old Thermostat New Tricks? Carlyn Aarish February 11, 2015 © 2015 Cadmus Property of Cadmus, no part may be copied or used without written permission

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Page 1: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Nest Learning Thermostat:Can You Teach an Old Thermostat New Tricks?

Carlyn Aarish

February 11, 2015

© 2015 CadmusProperty of Cadmus, no part may be copied or used without written permission

Page 2: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Evolution of Thermostats

Manual

User manually adjusts setpoints

Programmable

User programs setpoint schedule

Wi-Fi Connected

User adjusts/programs setpoints remotely

Smart

Thermostat adjusts/programs setpoints

2

Page 3: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

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Page 4: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Objectives

Gas saved on heating(Gas furnaces)

Electricity saved on cooling(Central AC)

4

Page 5: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Program Design

Test Control

N = 1,400

n = 700 n = 700

N = 4,645

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Page 6: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Methods

Pre/Post billing analysis

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Page 7: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Methods

Pre/Post billing analysis

Indoor temperature metering

6

Page 8: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Methods

Pre/Post billing analysis

Indoor temperature metering

AC run time metering

6

Page 9: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Methods

Pre/Post billing analysis

Indoor temperature metering

AC run time metering

Participant surveys

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Page 10: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Heating Season Gas Savings

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Page 11: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Cooling Season Electric Savings

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Page 12: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Heating Season Temp Profile

Asleep AwayHome Home

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Page 13: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Heating Season Temp Profile

Asleep AwayHome Home

10

Page 14: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Cooling Season Temp Profile

Asleep AwayHome Home

11

Page 15: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Cooling Season Temp Profile

Asleep AwayHome Home

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Page 16: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Reasons for Low Cooling Season Savings Potential

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Page 17: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Reasons for Low Cooling Season Savings Potential

1. Children out of school

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Page 18: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Reasons for Low Cooling Season Savings Potential

1. Children out of school

2. Cooling season shorter than heating season

13

Page 19: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Reasons for Low Cooling Season Savings Potential

1. Children out of school

2. Cooling season shorter than heating season

3. HVAC run times shorter in summer

13

Page 20: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Asleep AwayHome Home

Asleep AwayHome Home

Page 21: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

How I Think I Look

14

Page 22: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

How I Actually Look

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Page 23: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Ideal

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

Tem

per

atu

re (

˚F)

NOV DEC JAN FEB

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Page 24: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Actual

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

Tem

per

atu

re (

˚F)

NOV DEC JAN FEB

17

Page 25: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

Tem

per

atu

re (

˚F)

OCT NOV DEC

18

Actual

Page 26: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

Tem

per

atu

re (

˚F)

OCT NOV DEC

19

Actual

Page 27: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

Tem

per

atu

re (˚F

)

OCT NOV DEC

20

Page 28: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

4850525456586062646668707274767880

Tem

per

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re (˚F

)

OCT NOV DEC JAN

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Page 29: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Taking Analysis Further

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Page 30: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Taking Analysis Further

• What are impacts on utility peak demand?

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Page 31: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Taking Analysis Further

• What are impacts on utility peak demand?

• What are impacts if paired with DR program?

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Page 32: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Taking Analysis Further

• What are impacts on utility peak demand?

• What are impacts if paired with DR program?

• Do savings persist over time?

22

Page 33: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Taking Analysis Further

• What are impacts on utility peak demand?

• What are impacts if paired with DR program?

• Do savings persist over time?

• How do other smart thermostats compare?

22

Page 34: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Taking Analysis Further

• What are impacts on utility peak demand?

• What are impacts if paired with DR program?

• Do savings persist over time?

• How do other smart thermostats compare?

• What are impacts in different climate regions?

22

Page 35: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Taking Analysis Further

• What are impacts on utility peak demand?

• What are impacts if paired with DR program?

• Do savings persist over time?

• How do other smart thermostats compare?

• What are impacts in different climate regions?

• What are impacts on different HVAC equipment?

22

Page 36: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Taking Analysis Further

• What are impacts on utility peak demand?

• What are impacts if paired with DR program?

• Do savings persist over time?

• How do other smart thermostats compare?

• What are impacts in different climate regions?

• What are impacts on different HVAC equipment?

• What areas would YOU examine?

22

Page 37: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Carlyn Aarish

617-673-7139

[email protected]

Page 38: Nest Learning Thermostat: Can You Teach an Old ......AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR AESP’s Summer Conference Niagara Falls, ON AESP’s National Conference Phoenix, AZ May

Save The Dates

For more information - www.aesp.org

AESP’s Spring Conference Portland, OR

AESP’s Summer ConferenceNiagara Falls, ON

AESP’s National ConferencePhoenix, AZ

May 19-21, 2015

August 25-27, 2015

February 1-4, 2016