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CETERIS PARIBUSCETERIS PARIBUS

SPATIAL COMPLEXITY SPATIAL COMPLEXITY

SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM

Peter Nijkamp

28 November 2006

“As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality they are not certain; and as

far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.”

(Albert Einstein)

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A new challenge

• What is the space-economy?

• First law of geography (Tobler)

• Gravity law (Newton)

• Simplicity versus complexity

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Ceteris paribus and the space-economy

• Complex discovery tour and simple assumptions

• Cf. maps and models

• Abstraction

• Ceteris paribus (1311!)

• Marshall’s partial equilibrium analysis

• Partial cause-effect relationships (Black Box)

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Spatial interaction in open systems

• Space time interaction

• Spatio-temporal autocorrelation

• Connectivity in network structures

• Evolution and dissipative structures (Prigogine)

• Endogeneity and causality specification

• Complex spatial dynamics and ceteris paribus

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Spacial-economic complexity

• Principles of complexity theory• Path dependency versus feedbacks• Bifurcation, catastrophe, chaos, synergetics• Complex solution trajectories• Drivers: resilience

sustainabilityevolutionary principles- Volterra-Lotka- predator-prey- May- symbiosus- niche- self-organisation

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• Search for behaviourial paradigm- optimizer- bounded rationality- learning principles (survival)- simulation

Spacial-economic complexity (2)

“Learning is …..a growth, where every act of knowledge develops the learner, thus making him capable of constituting ever more and more complex objectivities.”

(Husserl)

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Principles of spacial-economic equilibrium

• Mathematical rigor ‘rigor mortis’

• CGE

• LöschIsardLeontief

• Kaldor’s Okun Memorial lecture

• Interactive economics?

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The methodology of spatial economics revisited• Evolutionary ecology• Specification analysis• Artificial intelligence

- computational neural networks- self-organised criticality- adaptive learning models

• Counterfactional analysis• Value transfer / meta-analysis• Micro-behavioural basis• Modelling as cognitive science?

“The mecca of the economist lies in economic biology.”(Alfred Marshall, 1896)