#netzero the role of energy in meeting the uk’s net zero · global emissions pathways –the need...

#netzero

The role of energy

in meeting the UK’s net zero

greenhouse gas targets

Monday 9 September | 14:00 – 16:30Conference Auditorium 2, University of Leeds

Net Zero

Chris Stark

Committee on Climate Change

10 September 2019

Where do we stand?

4

Global warming

CO2 Concentration – 2017 to 2019

Source: Scripps Institution of Oceonography

@ChiefExecCCC

5

Global warming

CO2 Concentration – 1700 to Present


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6

Global warming

CO2 Concentration – 800,000 years


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7

Global warming

CO2 Concentration – 800,000 years


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Global warming

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Observed and human-induced warming

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Warm

ing

(°C

-re

lati

ve t

o 1

85

0-

19

00

) Observations

Human-induced

warming

Source: HadCRUT4, NOAA, NASA and Cowtan & Way datasets; IPCC

(2018) Chapter 1 - Framing and Context.

The climate choice

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Source: Projections based on CMIP5 RCP scenarios, from warningstripes.com

+1.9oC in 2100/+1.4oC by 2200Emissions peak by 2029; Negative

emissions by 2080

+2.7oC in 2100/+2.8oC by 2200Emissions peak by 2049

+3.1oC in 2100/+3.7oC by 2200Emissions peak by 2089

+4.8oC in 2100/+7.8oC by 2200Emissions peak between 2100 -

2150

What do we do about this?

Science and international context

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Global emissions pathways – the need for net zero

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

601990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Gre

en

ho

use

gas

em

issi

on

s (G

tCO

2e/y

r)

>66% 2°C - Range

>50% 1.5°C - Range

>50% 1.5°C - Median

>66% 2°C - Median

Historical

Source: Huppmann, D. et al. (2018) A new scenario resource for

integrated 1.5°C research.


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Global emissions pathways – the need for net zero

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

601990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Gre

en

ho

use

gas

em

issi

on

s (G

tCO

2e/y

r)

>66% 2°C - Range

>50% 1.5°C - Range

>50% 1.5°C - Median

>66% 2°C - Median

Historical




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Global emissions pathways – role of each regions



-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

142010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

tCO

2/p

ers

on

/yr

Developed regions

China

India

Developing regions


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Global emissions pathways – role of each regions



-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

142010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

tCO

2/p

ers

on

/yr

Developed regions

China

India

Developing regions


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Alternatives to fossil fuels – Global average auction prices by commissioning date

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.302012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

20

16

US

D/k

Wh

Onshore Wind

Offshore Wind

Solar-PV

Fossil fuel - high

Fossil fuel - low

Source: IEA (2019) Renewable Energy 2018

Reducing emissions in the UK

Our approach to forecasting

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Climate

science

International

& EU

2050 Target


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UK Carbon Budgets (interim targets)

Climate

science

International

& EU

2050 Target


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Sectors: scenarios, costs, required policy

Power Buildings Industry Transport AgricultureWaste &

F-gases

Climate

science

International

& EU

2050 Target


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Security

of supply

Fuel

poverty

Competi

-tiveness

Fiscal

impactsEconomic

impacts

Air quality

& health

Impacts


Sectors: scenarios, costs, required policy

Power Buildings Industry Transport AgricultureWaste &

F-gases

Climate

science

International

& EU

2050 Target

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H2 H2H2H2 H2H2

Energy supply Energy use Land

CO2 storage

H2H2H2 H2H2

How UK net-zero scenarios can be delivered

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H2 H2H2H2 H2H2

Energy supply Energy use Land

CO2 storage

H2H2H2 H2H2


23

2040s2030s2020s

Electricity

Hydrogen

Buildings

Road Transport

Industry

Land Use

Expand electricity system, decarbonise mid-merit/peak

generation (e.g. using hydrogen), deploy bioenergy with CCS

Widespread deployment in industry, use in back-up electricity generation,

heavier vehicles (e.g. HGVs, trains) and potentially heating on the coldest days

Widespread electrification, expand heat networks,

gas grids potentially switch to hydrogen

Start large-scale hydrogen

production with CCS

Largely decarbonise electricity:

renewables, flexibility, coal phase-out

Efficiency, heat networks, heat

pumps (new-build, off-gas, hybrids)

Turn over fleets to zero-emission vehicles: cars & vans before HGVsRamp up EV market, decisions on HGVs

Afforestation, peatland restoration

Agriculture

Further CCS, widespread use of

hydrogen, some electrification

Healthier diets, reduced food waste, tree growing and low-carbon farming practices

Initial CCS clusters,

energy & resource efficiency

@ChiefExecCCC


24

2040s2030s2020s

Aviation

Shipping

Waste

F-Gases

Removals

Infra-structure

Limit emissions from combustion of non-bio

wastes (e.g. deploy measures to reduce emissions from waste water)Reduce waste, increase recycling rates,

landfill ban for biodegradable waste

Deployment of BECCS in various forms, demonstrate direct

air capture of CO₂, other removals depending on progressDevelop options & policy framework

Co-benefits

Hydrogen supply for industry & potentially buildings, roll-out of infrastructure for

hydrogen/electric HGVs, more CCS infrastructure, electricity network expansion

Health benefits due to improved air quality, healthier diets and more walking & cyclingClean growth and industrial opportunities

Industrial CCS clusters, decisions on gas

grid & HGV infrastructure, expand vehicle

charging & electricity grids

@ChiefExecCCC

Operational measures, new plane efficiency, constrained demand growth, limited sustainable biofuels

Operational measures, new ship fuel efficiency, use of ammonia

Move almost completely away from F-gases



25

Role of societal and behavioural changes in the Further Ambition scenario

38%

53%

9%

Low-carbon technologies or fuels not

societal / behavioural changes

Measures with a combination of low-

carbon technologies and societal /

behavioural changes

Largely societal or behavioural changes

Source: CCC analysis


26

Remaining emissions in the Further Ambition scenario by sector (left) and gas (right)

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2050 2050

MtC

O2

e

F-gases

Nitrous oxide

Methane

Carbon dioxide

Shipping

F-gases

Surface transport

Power

Hydrogen production

Buildings

Waste

Industry

Agriculture

Aviation

Engineered removals

LULUCF



27

Total CO₂ captured and stored due to Further Ambition options in 2050


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

CO₂ captured and stored in 2050

MtC

O2

Fossil CCS (power generation)

Fossil CCS (hydrogen production)

Direct air capture with CCS

BECCS (all sectors)

Fossil CCS (industry)

Importance of innovation

@ChiefExecCCC 28

Costs of example low-carbon technologies compared to past projectionsOffshore wind (left) Battery packs (right)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2016

2020

2025

2030

Leveli

sed

cost

of

ele

ctri

city

-£

/MW

h

(£2

01

8)

DECCestimate(2012)

Contractssigned in2013



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Batt

ery

pack

co

st -

$/K

Wh

(£

20

18

)

CCCcentralestimate(2011)

Actualaveragecost

Source: Offshore wind costs, CCC analysis based on DECC (2012) Electricity generation costs and LCCC (2019) CfD register. Battery forecasts,

CCC (2015) Sectoral scenarios for the 5th Carbon Budget, outturn costs from BNEF (2018) Electric cars to reach price parity by 2022

Importance of innovation

@ChiefExecCCC 29

A 2030 switchover to electric vehicles would save more money than a 2040 switchover

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

Net co

st o

f sw

itch

ing t

o e

lect

ric

cars

and

vans

(£b

n/y

ear) 2040 phase-out

2030 phase-out


Costs to the economy of meeting a UK net-zero target

30

The impact of innovation on the costs of achieving carbon targets

• Overall, innovation and falling technology costs mean that we now estimate that the UK's 80% emissions target could be met at a lower cost than we estimated in 2008 – under 1% of GDP in 2050, rather than 1-2% of GDP.

Changes in cost estimates for long-term emissions goals

GHG emissions reduction target (relative to 1990)

Year and report Cost range estimated for 2050

60% reduction in CO₂ (~55%

reduction in GHG)

2003 - Energy White Paper 0.5-2.0% of GDP

80% reduction in GHG 2008 - Building a low-carbon economy – the UK’s contribution to tackling climate change

1-2% of GDP

100% reduction in GHG 2019 - this report 1-2% of GDP

Thank you

#netzero

Chris Stark CEO, UK Committee on Climate Change

Lindsay McQuade CEO, ScottishPower Renewables

David Powell Head of Environment & Green Transition, New Economics Foundation

Julia Steinberger Professor of Social Ecology & Ecological Economics, University of Leeds

Piers Forster Professor of Climate Physics, University of Leeds and member of the UK

Committee on Climate Change

Chair: Peter Taylor Chair in Sustainable Energy Systems, University of Leeds

Panel discussion

The role of energy

in meeting the UK’s net zero

greenhouse gas targets

#netzero

#netzero the role of energy in meeting the uk’s net zero · global emissions pathways –the need...

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