neuralgic hotspots as an obstacle to regional stability? the case of northern kosovoer

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    UNIVERZA V LJUBLJANI

    FAKULTETA ZA DRUŽBENE VEDE

    Martinič Sandra

    NEURALGIC HOTSPOTS AS AN OBSTACLE TO REGIONAL

    STABILIT!

    THE CASE OF NORTHERN KOSOVO

    R"#"ar$% &a&"r

    S"$'rit( in S)'t% Ea#t"rn E'r)&"

    L*'+,*ana- ./0 1a( 2/.3

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    .0 Intr)d'$ti)n

    The collapse of Yugoslavia in 1991 and 1992 meant a start to five new states: Slovenia,

    Croatia, Bosnia and Heregovina, !acedonia, Ser"ia and !ontenegro with later secession of 

    !ontenegro in 2##$ and %osovo in 2##&' The region is now unsta"le for couple of decadesand the secession of %osovo (ust fueled the intolerance among the nations' %osovo "ecame a

    distri"ution "etween two ethnic groups: Ser"ians and )l"anians' The northern %osovo is that

    much more important "ecause it*s populated with the ma(orit+ of %osovo Ser"s and with

    Ser"ian refusal to international recognition of %osovo, the Ser"ian authorities are tempted to

    start demanding to see orthern %osovo as part of the Ser"ia' The situation is escalading

     "ecause "oth sides, Belgrade and -ristina, wants a sovereign claim over %osovo and -ristina

    doesn*t control the northern part of the countr+' .urther more %osovo Ser"s are protesting

    with violence to the unilateral declaration of independence "+ not recogniing the authorit+ of 

    the /epu"lic of %osovo'

    0ne of the hotspots is %osovsa !itrovica with Ser"s and )l"anian populated area' *s an

    important area, "ecause it represents a main point of tension "etween Ser"s and )l"anian,

    who are separated "+ the river "ar, which runs through the cit+' !+ research 3uestions are

    tied to this area, as will represents a possi"le scenario for partition of %osovo along the river 

    "ar' The second scenario is integration of the northern region into %osovo on the formula set

    out in the )htisaari plan' The research is mostl+ composed of collecting data from various

     primar+ and secondar+ sources, and their anal+sis and interpretation' want to have a variet+

    of information from different sources to drawn an o"(ective conclusion'

    !+ research paper consists of four parts: introduction, theoretical overview, anal+sis and

    conclusion' .irstl+, in m+ theoretical overview *m going to represent the theor+ of secession'

    Secondl+, in m+ anal+sis *m going to write a"out historical overview, the pro"lem with

    different nationalities and countries involved in the conflict 4their interests5, involvement of 

    international organiations, wh+ it*s a pro"lem for regional securit+ and a presentation of m+

    two scenarios' .or conclusion, *m going to do an overview of m+ research, state the

    conse3uences posed "+ the further development of the conflict and the impact of "oth

    scenarios on regional sta"ilit+ and securit+'

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    20 T%")r"ti$a, )4"r4i"5

    To understand the topic of m+ research paper, the need of a "ase is in theor+ of secession or in

    the right to secede or in legal language 6coordinated independence7'

    20.0 T%")r( )6 #"$"##i)n

     The theory itself explains, not new political association, but a “taking of a

    part of the territory claimed by an existing state”. Secession is diided into

    three groups! ". a moral right to secede and its conditions# 2. $ompatibility

    or incompatibility of secession with constitutionalism and# 3. the position

    of international law  %S&' 2("3a). The theory didn*t appear until the

    collapses of +ugoslaia, Soiet nion and $-echosloakia, the legitimacy

    was usual based on consent of the people, morality and obtaining the

    goals %oykin "//0). Some authors, ex. $hristopher 1eath ellman, go so

    far to claim that “4 any group has a moral right to secede as long as its

    political diorce will leae it and the remainder state in a position to

    perform the re5uisite political functions” %6orris 2((7). ut there is always

    a ery connected relationship between the moral right to unilateral

    secession and the position of international law. The concerns of moral

    aspect are a unilateral secession and its 8usti9cation or the moral right to

    secede unilaterally that is with consent of the state ad without

    constitutional sanction. The 5uestion emerged under what conditions there

    is a moral claim to secede and under what conditions a constitution ought

    to include a right to secede %S&' 2("3b). :s secession under international

    law, a ery few circumstances allow the unilateral right to secede, namely,

    when a group is sub8ect to colonial domination. The idea of serious and

    persistent in8ustices can allow the right to unilateral secession ; “4when

    a metropolitan power dominates a racially andor ethnically distinct group

    4” %S&' 2("3c).

    n the case of %osovo the theor+ of secession is important "ecause there is still a 3uestion if 

    %osovo*s declaration of independence is legal under international law' .or understanding this

    3uestion +ou need e8plore the countr+ histor+ from the "attle of %osovo -ol(e to Securit+Council /esolution 12, "ecause even if the remedial secession represents the core of legal

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     precedent de"ate there is a need of sociopolitical and historic events overview to understand

    the legal implications' )nd even if all the elements were met of remedial secession it*s argued

    that it;s still a legall+ insignificant act' The factual elements of remedial secession are:  the

    !ilo

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    that at some time in the past %osovo had had a ma(orit+ of Ser" population, a right

    which GG was unaffected "+ the 6recent invasion7 of )l"anians 4Cismas 2#1#", ???5'

    The Ser"ian argument was that %osovo is as Ierusalem of Ser"ian 0rthodo8+, an e8aggeration

    from their point of view' !oreover, the seat was not founded in %osovo, "ut moved "+ the

    Ser"ian rule after the initial foundation was "urn down in Ser"ia' But "+ that +ear, half of 

    %osovo;s population was )l"anian' )nd it continued to rise through the 2#th centur+ 4Crisis

    Froup 2#1Da5' The ethnographic factor is one of the most controversial issues in the region'

    There are accounts that )l"anians were a ma(orit+ even during the medieval Ser"ian mpire,

    while so claim that there were no )l"anians until the 1J th centur+' The evidence supports the

    latter with the migration flow from )l"ania' @ith %osovo under the rule of Ser"ia, the

    %osovo )l"anians saw the event as coloniation conse3uentl+, reinforced their ideal of a

    Freater )l"ania' .rom that time on, ethnicit+ has "ecome an important factor in regional

    sta"ilit+ 4Cismas 2#1#c, ???AJ5'

    n 19J %osovo was granted autonom+ and status of a federal unit, "ut still under Ser"ian

    repu"lic' ven with the ma(orit+ )l"anians "eing emancipated, the pressure of economic

    downfall leaded to riots "+ )l"anian students in 19&1, demanding that %osovo;s status "e

    upgraded to repu"lic' The conse3uences were a stronger securit+ over the province,

    imprisoning for alleged su"version' n the nineties, when Slo"odan !ilo the

    withdrawal of the militar+, police and paramilitar+ forces of the .ederal /epu"lic>

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    deplo+ment of effective international civil and securit+ presences, with su"stantial

     orth )tlantic Treat+ 0rganiation 4)T05 participation in the securit+ presence>

    esta"lishment of an interim administration> the safe and free return of all refugees> a

     political process providing for su"stantial selfgovernment, as well as the

    demilitariation of the %osovo Ei"eration )rm+ 4%E)5> and a comprehensive approach

    to the economic development of the crisis region 4Lnited ations 1999a5'

    The significance of this resolution is for "oth included parties' .or the Ser"ians the articles of 

    the 12 resolution indicate the possi"ilit+ for %osovo return to the autonomous status pre

    199#' )s we nown Ser"ia lost control of %osovo in 1999 due to )T0 "om"ing campaign,

    which ended a war "etween Ser"ia and %osovo )l"anians and a L administration was

    esta"lish' That*s how %osovo .orce 4%.0/5 was admitted into %osovo and Ser"ian forces

    withdraw their arm+' L administration oversaw %osovo*s institutions of selfgovernment

    4Taner and Stevenson 2#1#5' .rom %osovo point of view it*s important to note that the

    declaration of independence didn*t violate the international law or the SC resolution 12 and

    in spite of ever+thing made it legal'

    Kuring the L administrated countr+, the+ wanted to esta"lish the measure of sta"ilit+

    successful re"uild the multiethnic societ+ 40! 2#125' )s we can se some areas, orthern

    %osovo, still represents an o"stacle to regional sta"ilit+'

    3020 N)rt%"rn K)#)4)

     orthern %osovo is perceived as an area "etween the Ser" and %osovo )l"anians' The

     pro"lem is that Ser" are calling the act of independence as illegal and are refusing to

    acnowledge the rule of %osovo*s government' ven if the people in Ser"ia are aware that

    %osovo is sovereign state under international law, the streets are still swamp with small

    radical groups who "ring insta"ilit+ and no sense of securit+ to the area and conse3uentl+ to

    the region' That*s wa+ the people of orthern %osovo feel a"andoned and furious, some from

    Ser"ia other from %osovo or )l"ania' The issue is not isolated pro"lem on the ground of 

    %osovo and Ser"ia' @ithout a solution the securit+ in the region stand on uneven grounds and

    others autonomies can arise in Ser"ia or in other parts of the region' The conse3uences are

    endless> Ser"ia can start demand orthern %osovo as a part of Ser"ia, desta"iliing Bosnia

    and Heregovina or support "igger friction in !ontenegro "etween Ser"s and !ontenegrins

    4ES 2#115' Toda+ orthern %osovo "ecame a "argaining tool for the L mem"ership' @ith

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    the leadership to surrender north %osovo to -ristina control the situation didn;t change a lot

    from the 2##9' But with the shift of control, the northern %osovo Ser"s are in danger of a fate

    similar of the eastern Croatian Ser"s' ven the efforts, "+ )T0 and LEN and their 

    attempts to force the northemers to accept the control of -ristina, have failed' The danger of 

    further attempts to esta"lish 6authorit+7 is liel+ to manifest in violence 4Fallucci 2#1D5'

    The pro"lem is occurring "ecause nor Ser"s or )l"anian have a strategic plan to solve the

    dispute over the return of )l"anians to the north' Both sides want to 6"ull+7 the other into

    accepting the+ domination 4Falluci 2#125' !eanwhile the international organiations are

    tr+ing to help with their man+ missions in %osovo 4%.0/, LEN5 "ut in the end the+ are

    not succeeding to stop the violence, "ut in truth the+ are helping it to spread' The+ are

    supported as a part of the effort to change the ethnic "alance north of "ar'

    The violence "etween ethnic groups is escalading' n .e"ruar+ this +ear, when a married

    couple, a %osovo Ser" and an ethnic )l"anian, were target of a "om"ing in !itrovica' The

    e8plosive was thrown on top of an ethnic )l"anian house, "ut fortunatel+ none of them was

    hurt 4Kispatch 2#1D5' 0r in 2#12 when during a gunfight three Ser"s and a )T0 soldier 

    were wounded' Miolence flared after attempting to dismantle Ser" road"locs, near OvePan'

     )T0 troops were engage in a fight using tear gas, after their vehicles were pelted with

    stones, and with ru""er "ullets' %osovo Ser"s return the fire with their handguns' /oad"locs

    were an effort to stop %osovar and L authorities taing control of the "order with Ser"ia

    4euronews 2#125' The idea of 6froen conflict7 and L*s rigid position it*s not wise' The

    situation can go either wa+ and in the end the L mem"er states would "e responsi"le for 

    handling an+ crisis that does erupt' The threat of Ferman chancellor !erel of stopping the

    L accession negotiations is ma+"e enough for Belgrade and -ristina, "ut not enough for 

    northerens' The situation is "e+ond the control of the authorities of %osovo with economic

    disaster and violence is closel+ infused with lives in Belgrade and -ristina'

    SC /esolution 12 and the ongoing %osovo im"roglio "ecame an o"stacle to create sta"ilit+'

    t*s important to mention that recognition of %osovo*s independence is in violation of 12

    and the intent of L SC' )s a result, the Lnited States of )merica 4LS)5 contradicted its own

    support of its recognition' @hat is more, 12 doesn*t support the socalled 6parallel

    institutions7 in northern %osovo 4!e+er 2#1D5'

    East month was a historic moment for the Belgrade and -ristina dialogue when the+ agreed to

    end the war of words and power' t was also the ultimatum from the L of its decision on the

     process of Ser"ia*s accession, for dismantle the parallel structures in northern %osovo' The

    agreement came after several people lost their lives the signature "rings less weight for "oth

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     parties and to the L 4FrosMerhe+de 2#1Da5' The agreement stimulates that Belgrade doesn*t

    recognie %osovo as a state in its own right> he accepts his legal authorit+ over its entire

    territor+, including the northern part of %osovo' n e8change, %osovo concedes a degree of 

    decentraliation and autonom+ to the Ser"s Communit+ in northern %osovo, with the

    responsi"ilit+ for the socioeconomic issues such as economic development, education, health

    and ur"an planning 4-rifti 2#1D5' But the %osovo Ser"s still remained a thorn in the sided for 

     "oth parties involve "ecause after the agreement the+ gathered in north !itrovica to protest

    against the approval of normaliation of relations "etween Belgrade and -ristina' The motto

    of 2#'### people was: 6orthern %osovo will forever "e a part of Ser"ia7' The protester were

    waving Ser"ian flags and "anners with inscriptions as, 6@e do not surrender7, 6o to the laws

    and the Constitution of %osovo7 and 6o to the Brussels agreement7' @ith the Brussels

    )greement, Belgrade 6indirectl+ recognies %osovo7 what "rought a sense of "etra+al for 

    %osovo Ser"s' The+ re(ect the wa+s of -ristina and Belgrade and support the third wa+, even

    with the ris that will accompan+ the autonom+ of northern %osovo 4Ee Courrier des Balans

    2#1D5'

    3030 R"#"ar$% 8'"#ti)n#

    n this section *m going to represents the two possi"le scenarios for the northern region and

    its conse3uences' ven with the agreement "etween -ristina and Belgrade there is still a

     possi"ilit+ of partition or integration scenario' There isn*t going to "e a solution which pleases

    all, "ut it*s important to remove the o"stacle to regional sta"ilit+ or the hotspots for further 

    escalading pro"lem of violence in other parts of the Balan countries'

    3030.0 Partiti)n #$"nari) 9 Partiti)n K)#)4) a,)n: t%" Ri4"r I+ar

    t*s defined as a new international "order drawn along the /iver "ar and where the northern

    region, where Ser"s predominate, come under the /epu"lic of Ser"ia and the )l"anian south,

    !itrovica, sta+ as a part of %osovo' This will create two separate political units' t*s not a new

     plan, it was reconsidered in 1999 and which was "aced "+ the /ussians after the "om"ing'

    n 2##? the uropean Council stated that the+ don*t support the partition of %osovo and their 

    union with another countr+, even a part of it' The idea is that a separation "etween Ser"s and

    )l"anians ena"le two states to function, with unliel+ that the one of the criteria "eing ever 

    fulfilled' .irstl+, the mutual desire to separate' %osovo Ser"s are e8pressing their desire to "e

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     part of Ser"ia> meanwhile the %osovo )l"anians e8press disappointment of the town "eing

    separated "ut with no desire for reconciliation' Secondl+, the criteria of no larger ethnic

    minorit+ "eing affected within the relevant region support the proposal of partition' The

     population figures shows 9?Q of area is populated "+ Ser"s' The pro"lem appears with the

    occurrence o new international "order and its high cost effect on economic development: cost

    of access is higher: ta8 revenues "+ "order custom regimes> north Ser"s lose 2 million

    customers in %osovo> the nearest maret "ecomes a 9# minute (ourne+ awa+' n one wa+,

     partition would "ring a functioning state with less regional insta"ilit+ "ut in other wa+, in will

    affect the economic development with the reducing of human, natural and ph+sical capital to

    the citiens 4Iacson 2#1Da, 1A$5'

    303020 Int":rati)n #$"nari) 9 Int":rat" t%" n)rt%"rn r":i)n int) K)#)4) +a#"d )n t%"6)r1',a #"t )'t in t%" A%ti#aari &,an0

    This scenario predicts a dissolvent of all administrative and political lins to Ser"ia with the

    north Ser"ian population reoriented to -ristina' ntegration in )htisaari plan involves

    distri"ution of power "ased on two elements: 1' 6GGit affords su"stantial political autonom+

    to the Ser"s north of the "arGG7 and> 2' 6GGit involves some degree of local power sharing

    as the north and south !itrovica municipalities will resolve cit+ wide issues through an

    international mediated Ioint Board*7 4Iacson 2#1D", 2#5' )htisaari plan would ensure the

    aim of sharing autonom+ and ensure that minorities 6GrGemain in a common state "ased on the

    idea of ethnic pluralism as well as maing the minorities less apprehensive a"out their future

    in a ma(orit+, dominated state7' t allows them to secure their "asic human rights without

    forced assimilation' )htisaari plan provides minorit+ rights for %osovo Ser"s in a wa+ that is

    more efficient from the L standards' t*s possi"le to allow a connection "etween the political

    future of the northern Ser" to Ser"ia, "ut at the same time to %osovo constitution' @ith

    normaliation of the state micro economic governance will improve and the maret access

    will e8pand now closed "+ the ethnic separation' !ulti ethnic !itrovica can achieve a

    competitive maret "etween Ser"s and )l"anians' ) similar case of ethnic integration has

     previousl+ wored in Br=o in Bosnia 4Iacson 2#1Dc, 2#A15'

    70 C)n$,'#i)n

    To sum up m+ research paper on northern %osovo, it*s o"vious that even with the new

    Brussels agreement the situation is not improving' n m+ opinion the L, Ser"ia and %osovo

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    are forgetting that a sign agreement on paper is not the same as an agreement of the people

    involved, the %osovo Ser"s and %osovo )l"anians' n m+ historic overview we saw the

    speculation and evidence that the independence is not reall+ according to international law or 

    to the resolution 12' nternational Court of Iustice 4CI5 ruled onl+ that %osovo*s

    declaration of independence is not in violation of international law, "ut the 3uestions of 

    %osovo*s as an independent state or legalit+ of their secession was not addressed'

    )dditionall+, during m+ theoretical overview of secession it was mention that the theor+ of 

    secession represents one of the most controversial legal aspects with no regard to regional

    sta"ilit+' ven with the CI ruling %osovo as an autonomous province was without the right to

    selfdetermination'

    ver+ little detail "rought me to m+ research 3uestion, partition or integration' @hen we loo 

    at the whole picture we can see that "oth scenarios have solid "ase for success' n m+ first

    scenario of partition the pro"lem occurs that even with a high success in functioning state,

    there is a low economic development with riss in regional insta"ilit+' The danger is in an end

    of multiethnicit+ in Balans and a trigger to domino effect* where other secessionist group

    starts to demand their own states' t*s a ma(or "lown to the political and economic

    development in the Balans and !itrovica is a place which can trigger the domino effect'

    !eanwhile m+ second scenario predicts integration "ased on )htisaari plan where the goals

    for achieving the functioning state and economic development are high "ut with the riss of 

    migration of %osovo Ser"s out of %osovo, different attempt to destro+ the agreement and last

     "ut not least political polariation' The, which supplemented the )htisaari plan for !itrovica

    changed two municipalities which are operating under one "oard, while the Brussels

    agreement hasn*t mention the creation of the "oard' The strange actions was also placing

    northern !itrovica in another region what divided the cit+ on their ethnicit+' The agreement

    was alread+ re(ected "+ the %osovo Ser" with manifestations' The+ e8press their anger 

    toward L and theirs attempts to control the administration'

    )fter anal+ing the two suggested scenario, the integration is "etter for the citiens and "oth

    governments' conomic development would "e higher and there is a smaller change of 

    escalading the violence, plus it with not fueled other secessionist group to start demands their 

    own states' ven if the partition scenario would most liel+ to "ring 3uicer regional sta"ilit+

    for a while, the domino effect would "ring war in Balan region again' The Brussels

    agreement isn*t a plan which is going to "ring sta"ilit+' 0n other hand %osovo Ser"s feel

    "etra+ed* "+ Ser"ian government and are unwilling to su"mit to the rule of %osovo and with

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    the strong emotion and resentment the future of the northern %osovo and the whole region is

    in 3uestion'

    )s a recommendation, thin that integration of northern %osovo is essential and for now it*s

    important to maintain the LEN and %.0/ in the area' Change the education s+stem and

    administration with the help of Ser"ian government' The acceptance of Ser"ia and its

    interference is essential for the coverage high tension of %osovo Ser"s' t*s o"vious that with

    the ma(orit+ of Ser" in the north of %osovo, Ser"ia is going to alwa+s "e involved, even if 

     "oth parties regard this area as no grata’.

    =. Bi+,i):ra&%(

    S-' 2#1D' Secession' )ccessi"le via:

    http:GGplato'stanford'eduGentriesGsecessionGR/igSec/igTer 41' ma+ 2#1D5'

    !orris, @' Christoper' 2##J' ) Theor+ of Secession: The Case for -olitical Self

    Ketermination' )ccessi"le via: http:GGndpr'nd'eduGnewsG2?29Datheor+ofsecessionthe

    caseforpoliticalselfdeterminationG 41' ma+ 2#1D5'

    Bo+in, Scott' 199&' The thics of Secession' M Secession, State and Liberty. )ccessi"le via:

    http:GGwww'dite8t'comG"o+inGethics'html 41' ma+ 2#1D5' 

    !aeester, H' Kaniel' 2#12' /emedial secession: a positive or negative force for the prevention

    and reduction of armed conflict Canadian Foreign Policy Journal;  1& 425: 1?1A$D0

    )ccessi"le via: http:GGwww'tandfonline'comGdoiGa"sG1#'1#G1192$22'2#12'J#9#?#

     (ournalCodercfp2#R'LY.Ya%e0F! 42' ma+ 2#1D5'

    Crisis Froup' 2#1D' %osovo Conflict Histor+' )ccessi"le via:

    http:GGwww'crisisgroup'orgGenGpu"licationt+peGe+issuesGresearchresourcesGconflict

    historiesGosovo'asp8 42' ma+ 2#1D5'

    Lnited ations' 1999' Securit+ Council, welcoming Yugoslavia*s acceptance of peace

     principles, authories civil, securit+ presence in %osovo' )ccessi"le via:

    http:GGwww'un'orgGewsG-ressGdocsG1999G1999#$1#'SC$$&$'html 42' ma+ 2#1D5'

    Taner, )dam and /eed Stevenson' 2#1#' %osovo independence declaration deemed legal'

    )ccessi"le via: http:GGwww'reuters'comGarticleG2#1#G#JG22Gusser"iaosovo

    idLST/$$E#1J2#1##J22 42' ma+ 2#1D5'

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    0!' 2#12' LSC /esolution 12A)dministreted %osovo' )ccessi"le via:

    http:GGwww'iom'intGcmsGenGsitesGiomGhomeGwhereweworGeuropaGsoutheasterneurope

    easterneurGunscresolution12administere'default'htmldispla+Ta"latestnews 42' ma+

    2#1D5'

    ES' 2#11' Ser"ia and regional sta"ilit+' )ccessi"le via:

    http:GG"logs'lse'ac'uGideasG2#11G1#Gser"iaandregionalsta"ilit+G 42' ma+ 2#1D5'

    Fallucci, !' Ferard' 2#1D' %osovo so what is -lan B Transconfict.  )ccessi"le via:

    http:GGwww'transconflict'comG2#1DG#Gosovosowhatisplan"#?G 42' ma+ 2#1D5'

    Fallucci, !' Ferard' 2#12' %osovo U stuc in the same old places Transconfict. )ccessi"le

    via: http:GGwww'transconflict'comG2#12G11Gosovostucinthesameoldplaces2D1G 42'

    ma+ 2#1D5'

    Kispatch' 2#1D' orthern %osovo: thnic violence escalates' )ccessi"le via:

    http:GGwww'trivalle+central'comGcasaVgrandeVdispatchGworldVnewsGnorthernosovo

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