neuralgic hotspots as an obstacle to regional stability? the case of northern kosovoer
TRANSCRIPT
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UNIVERZA V LJUBLJANI
FAKULTETA ZA DRUŽBENE VEDE
Martinič Sandra
NEURALGIC HOTSPOTS AS AN OBSTACLE TO REGIONAL
STABILIT!
THE CASE OF NORTHERN KOSOVO
R"#"ar$% &a&"r
S"$'rit( in S)'t% Ea#t"rn E'r)&"
L*'+,*ana- ./0 1a( 2/.3
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.0 Intr)d'$ti)n
The collapse of Yugoslavia in 1991 and 1992 meant a start to five new states: Slovenia,
Croatia, Bosnia and Heregovina, !acedonia, Ser"ia and !ontenegro with later secession of
!ontenegro in 2##$ and %osovo in 2##&' The region is now unsta"le for couple of decadesand the secession of %osovo (ust fueled the intolerance among the nations' %osovo "ecame a
distri"ution "etween two ethnic groups: Ser"ians and )l"anians' The northern %osovo is that
much more important "ecause it*s populated with the ma(orit+ of %osovo Ser"s and with
Ser"ian refusal to international recognition of %osovo, the Ser"ian authorities are tempted to
start demanding to see orthern %osovo as part of the Ser"ia' The situation is escalading
"ecause "oth sides, Belgrade and -ristina, wants a sovereign claim over %osovo and -ristina
doesn*t control the northern part of the countr+' .urther more %osovo Ser"s are protesting
with violence to the unilateral declaration of independence "+ not recogniing the authorit+ of
the /epu"lic of %osovo'
0ne of the hotspots is %osovsa !itrovica with Ser"s and )l"anian populated area' *s an
important area, "ecause it represents a main point of tension "etween Ser"s and )l"anian,
who are separated "+ the river "ar, which runs through the cit+' !+ research 3uestions are
tied to this area, as will represents a possi"le scenario for partition of %osovo along the river
"ar' The second scenario is integration of the northern region into %osovo on the formula set
out in the )htisaari plan' The research is mostl+ composed of collecting data from various
primar+ and secondar+ sources, and their anal+sis and interpretation' want to have a variet+
of information from different sources to drawn an o"(ective conclusion'
!+ research paper consists of four parts: introduction, theoretical overview, anal+sis and
conclusion' .irstl+, in m+ theoretical overview *m going to represent the theor+ of secession'
Secondl+, in m+ anal+sis *m going to write a"out historical overview, the pro"lem with
different nationalities and countries involved in the conflict 4their interests5, involvement of
international organiations, wh+ it*s a pro"lem for regional securit+ and a presentation of m+
two scenarios' .or conclusion, *m going to do an overview of m+ research, state the
conse3uences posed "+ the further development of the conflict and the impact of "oth
scenarios on regional sta"ilit+ and securit+'
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20 T%")r"ti$a, )4"r4i"5
To understand the topic of m+ research paper, the need of a "ase is in theor+ of secession or in
the right to secede or in legal language 6coordinated independence7'
20.0 T%")r( )6 #"$"##i)n
The theory itself explains, not new political association, but a “taking of a
part of the territory claimed by an existing state”. Secession is diided into
three groups! ". a moral right to secede and its conditions# 2. $ompatibility
or incompatibility of secession with constitutionalism and# 3. the position
of international law %S&' 2("3a). The theory didn*t appear until the
collapses of +ugoslaia, Soiet nion and $-echosloakia, the legitimacy
was usual based on consent of the people, morality and obtaining the
goals %oykin "//0). Some authors, ex. $hristopher 1eath ellman, go so
far to claim that “4 any group has a moral right to secede as long as its
political diorce will leae it and the remainder state in a position to
perform the re5uisite political functions” %6orris 2((7). ut there is always
a ery connected relationship between the moral right to unilateral
secession and the position of international law. The concerns of moral
aspect are a unilateral secession and its 8usti9cation or the moral right to
secede unilaterally that is with consent of the state ad without
constitutional sanction. The 5uestion emerged under what conditions there
is a moral claim to secede and under what conditions a constitution ought
to include a right to secede %S&' 2("3b). :s secession under international
law, a ery few circumstances allow the unilateral right to secede, namely,
when a group is sub8ect to colonial domination. The idea of serious and
persistent in8ustices can allow the right to unilateral secession ; “4when
a metropolitan power dominates a racially andor ethnically distinct group
4” %S&' 2("3c).
n the case of %osovo the theor+ of secession is important "ecause there is still a 3uestion if
%osovo*s declaration of independence is legal under international law' .or understanding this
3uestion +ou need e8plore the countr+ histor+ from the "attle of %osovo -ol(e to Securit+Council /esolution 12, "ecause even if the remedial secession represents the core of legal
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precedent de"ate there is a need of sociopolitical and historic events overview to understand
the legal implications' )nd even if all the elements were met of remedial secession it*s argued
that it;s still a legall+ insignificant act' The factual elements of remedial secession are: the
!ilo
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that at some time in the past %osovo had had a ma(orit+ of Ser" population, a right
which GG was unaffected "+ the 6recent invasion7 of )l"anians 4Cismas 2#1#", ???5'
The Ser"ian argument was that %osovo is as Ierusalem of Ser"ian 0rthodo8+, an e8aggeration
from their point of view' !oreover, the seat was not founded in %osovo, "ut moved "+ the
Ser"ian rule after the initial foundation was "urn down in Ser"ia' But "+ that +ear, half of
%osovo;s population was )l"anian' )nd it continued to rise through the 2#th centur+ 4Crisis
Froup 2#1Da5' The ethnographic factor is one of the most controversial issues in the region'
There are accounts that )l"anians were a ma(orit+ even during the medieval Ser"ian mpire,
while so claim that there were no )l"anians until the 1J th centur+' The evidence supports the
latter with the migration flow from )l"ania' @ith %osovo under the rule of Ser"ia, the
%osovo )l"anians saw the event as coloniation conse3uentl+, reinforced their ideal of a
Freater )l"ania' .rom that time on, ethnicit+ has "ecome an important factor in regional
sta"ilit+ 4Cismas 2#1#c, ???AJ5'
n 19J %osovo was granted autonom+ and status of a federal unit, "ut still under Ser"ian
repu"lic' ven with the ma(orit+ )l"anians "eing emancipated, the pressure of economic
downfall leaded to riots "+ )l"anian students in 19&1, demanding that %osovo;s status "e
upgraded to repu"lic' The conse3uences were a stronger securit+ over the province,
imprisoning for alleged su"version' n the nineties, when Slo"odan !ilo the
withdrawal of the militar+, police and paramilitar+ forces of the .ederal /epu"lic>
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deplo+ment of effective international civil and securit+ presences, with su"stantial
orth )tlantic Treat+ 0rganiation 4)T05 participation in the securit+ presence>
esta"lishment of an interim administration> the safe and free return of all refugees> a
political process providing for su"stantial selfgovernment, as well as the
demilitariation of the %osovo Ei"eration )rm+ 4%E)5> and a comprehensive approach
to the economic development of the crisis region 4Lnited ations 1999a5'
The significance of this resolution is for "oth included parties' .or the Ser"ians the articles of
the 12 resolution indicate the possi"ilit+ for %osovo return to the autonomous status pre
199#' )s we nown Ser"ia lost control of %osovo in 1999 due to )T0 "om"ing campaign,
which ended a war "etween Ser"ia and %osovo )l"anians and a L administration was
esta"lish' That*s how %osovo .orce 4%.0/5 was admitted into %osovo and Ser"ian forces
withdraw their arm+' L administration oversaw %osovo*s institutions of selfgovernment
4Taner and Stevenson 2#1#5' .rom %osovo point of view it*s important to note that the
declaration of independence didn*t violate the international law or the SC resolution 12 and
in spite of ever+thing made it legal'
Kuring the L administrated countr+, the+ wanted to esta"lish the measure of sta"ilit+
successful re"uild the multiethnic societ+ 40! 2#125' )s we can se some areas, orthern
%osovo, still represents an o"stacle to regional sta"ilit+'
3020 N)rt%"rn K)#)4)
orthern %osovo is perceived as an area "etween the Ser" and %osovo )l"anians' The
pro"lem is that Ser" are calling the act of independence as illegal and are refusing to
acnowledge the rule of %osovo*s government' ven if the people in Ser"ia are aware that
%osovo is sovereign state under international law, the streets are still swamp with small
radical groups who "ring insta"ilit+ and no sense of securit+ to the area and conse3uentl+ to
the region' That*s wa+ the people of orthern %osovo feel a"andoned and furious, some from
Ser"ia other from %osovo or )l"ania' The issue is not isolated pro"lem on the ground of
%osovo and Ser"ia' @ithout a solution the securit+ in the region stand on uneven grounds and
others autonomies can arise in Ser"ia or in other parts of the region' The conse3uences are
endless> Ser"ia can start demand orthern %osovo as a part of Ser"ia, desta"iliing Bosnia
and Heregovina or support "igger friction in !ontenegro "etween Ser"s and !ontenegrins
4ES 2#115' Toda+ orthern %osovo "ecame a "argaining tool for the L mem"ership' @ith
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the leadership to surrender north %osovo to -ristina control the situation didn;t change a lot
from the 2##9' But with the shift of control, the northern %osovo Ser"s are in danger of a fate
similar of the eastern Croatian Ser"s' ven the efforts, "+ )T0 and LEN and their
attempts to force the northemers to accept the control of -ristina, have failed' The danger of
further attempts to esta"lish 6authorit+7 is liel+ to manifest in violence 4Fallucci 2#1D5'
The pro"lem is occurring "ecause nor Ser"s or )l"anian have a strategic plan to solve the
dispute over the return of )l"anians to the north' Both sides want to 6"ull+7 the other into
accepting the+ domination 4Falluci 2#125' !eanwhile the international organiations are
tr+ing to help with their man+ missions in %osovo 4%.0/, LEN5 "ut in the end the+ are
not succeeding to stop the violence, "ut in truth the+ are helping it to spread' The+ are
supported as a part of the effort to change the ethnic "alance north of "ar'
The violence "etween ethnic groups is escalading' n .e"ruar+ this +ear, when a married
couple, a %osovo Ser" and an ethnic )l"anian, were target of a "om"ing in !itrovica' The
e8plosive was thrown on top of an ethnic )l"anian house, "ut fortunatel+ none of them was
hurt 4Kispatch 2#1D5' 0r in 2#12 when during a gunfight three Ser"s and a )T0 soldier
were wounded' Miolence flared after attempting to dismantle Ser" road"locs, near OvePan'
)T0 troops were engage in a fight using tear gas, after their vehicles were pelted with
stones, and with ru""er "ullets' %osovo Ser"s return the fire with their handguns' /oad"locs
were an effort to stop %osovar and L authorities taing control of the "order with Ser"ia
4euronews 2#125' The idea of 6froen conflict7 and L*s rigid position it*s not wise' The
situation can go either wa+ and in the end the L mem"er states would "e responsi"le for
handling an+ crisis that does erupt' The threat of Ferman chancellor !erel of stopping the
L accession negotiations is ma+"e enough for Belgrade and -ristina, "ut not enough for
northerens' The situation is "e+ond the control of the authorities of %osovo with economic
disaster and violence is closel+ infused with lives in Belgrade and -ristina'
SC /esolution 12 and the ongoing %osovo im"roglio "ecame an o"stacle to create sta"ilit+'
t*s important to mention that recognition of %osovo*s independence is in violation of 12
and the intent of L SC' )s a result, the Lnited States of )merica 4LS)5 contradicted its own
support of its recognition' @hat is more, 12 doesn*t support the socalled 6parallel
institutions7 in northern %osovo 4!e+er 2#1D5'
East month was a historic moment for the Belgrade and -ristina dialogue when the+ agreed to
end the war of words and power' t was also the ultimatum from the L of its decision on the
process of Ser"ia*s accession, for dismantle the parallel structures in northern %osovo' The
agreement came after several people lost their lives the signature "rings less weight for "oth
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parties and to the L 4FrosMerhe+de 2#1Da5' The agreement stimulates that Belgrade doesn*t
recognie %osovo as a state in its own right> he accepts his legal authorit+ over its entire
territor+, including the northern part of %osovo' n e8change, %osovo concedes a degree of
decentraliation and autonom+ to the Ser"s Communit+ in northern %osovo, with the
responsi"ilit+ for the socioeconomic issues such as economic development, education, health
and ur"an planning 4-rifti 2#1D5' But the %osovo Ser"s still remained a thorn in the sided for
"oth parties involve "ecause after the agreement the+ gathered in north !itrovica to protest
against the approval of normaliation of relations "etween Belgrade and -ristina' The motto
of 2#'### people was: 6orthern %osovo will forever "e a part of Ser"ia7' The protester were
waving Ser"ian flags and "anners with inscriptions as, 6@e do not surrender7, 6o to the laws
and the Constitution of %osovo7 and 6o to the Brussels agreement7' @ith the Brussels
)greement, Belgrade 6indirectl+ recognies %osovo7 what "rought a sense of "etra+al for
%osovo Ser"s' The+ re(ect the wa+s of -ristina and Belgrade and support the third wa+, even
with the ris that will accompan+ the autonom+ of northern %osovo 4Ee Courrier des Balans
2#1D5'
3030 R"#"ar$% 8'"#ti)n#
n this section *m going to represents the two possi"le scenarios for the northern region and
its conse3uences' ven with the agreement "etween -ristina and Belgrade there is still a
possi"ilit+ of partition or integration scenario' There isn*t going to "e a solution which pleases
all, "ut it*s important to remove the o"stacle to regional sta"ilit+ or the hotspots for further
escalading pro"lem of violence in other parts of the Balan countries'
3030.0 Partiti)n #$"nari) 9 Partiti)n K)#)4) a,)n: t%" Ri4"r I+ar
t*s defined as a new international "order drawn along the /iver "ar and where the northern
region, where Ser"s predominate, come under the /epu"lic of Ser"ia and the )l"anian south,
!itrovica, sta+ as a part of %osovo' This will create two separate political units' t*s not a new
plan, it was reconsidered in 1999 and which was "aced "+ the /ussians after the "om"ing'
n 2##? the uropean Council stated that the+ don*t support the partition of %osovo and their
union with another countr+, even a part of it' The idea is that a separation "etween Ser"s and
)l"anians ena"le two states to function, with unliel+ that the one of the criteria "eing ever
fulfilled' .irstl+, the mutual desire to separate' %osovo Ser"s are e8pressing their desire to "e
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part of Ser"ia> meanwhile the %osovo )l"anians e8press disappointment of the town "eing
separated "ut with no desire for reconciliation' Secondl+, the criteria of no larger ethnic
minorit+ "eing affected within the relevant region support the proposal of partition' The
population figures shows 9?Q of area is populated "+ Ser"s' The pro"lem appears with the
occurrence o new international "order and its high cost effect on economic development: cost
of access is higher: ta8 revenues "+ "order custom regimes> north Ser"s lose 2 million
customers in %osovo> the nearest maret "ecomes a 9# minute (ourne+ awa+' n one wa+,
partition would "ring a functioning state with less regional insta"ilit+ "ut in other wa+, in will
affect the economic development with the reducing of human, natural and ph+sical capital to
the citiens 4Iacson 2#1Da, 1A$5'
303020 Int":rati)n #$"nari) 9 Int":rat" t%" n)rt%"rn r":i)n int) K)#)4) +a#"d )n t%"6)r1',a #"t )'t in t%" A%ti#aari &,an0
This scenario predicts a dissolvent of all administrative and political lins to Ser"ia with the
north Ser"ian population reoriented to -ristina' ntegration in )htisaari plan involves
distri"ution of power "ased on two elements: 1' 6GGit affords su"stantial political autonom+
to the Ser"s north of the "arGG7 and> 2' 6GGit involves some degree of local power sharing
as the north and south !itrovica municipalities will resolve cit+ wide issues through an
international mediated Ioint Board*7 4Iacson 2#1D", 2#5' )htisaari plan would ensure the
aim of sharing autonom+ and ensure that minorities 6GrGemain in a common state "ased on the
idea of ethnic pluralism as well as maing the minorities less apprehensive a"out their future
in a ma(orit+, dominated state7' t allows them to secure their "asic human rights without
forced assimilation' )htisaari plan provides minorit+ rights for %osovo Ser"s in a wa+ that is
more efficient from the L standards' t*s possi"le to allow a connection "etween the political
future of the northern Ser" to Ser"ia, "ut at the same time to %osovo constitution' @ith
normaliation of the state micro economic governance will improve and the maret access
will e8pand now closed "+ the ethnic separation' !ulti ethnic !itrovica can achieve a
competitive maret "etween Ser"s and )l"anians' ) similar case of ethnic integration has
previousl+ wored in Br=o in Bosnia 4Iacson 2#1Dc, 2#A15'
70 C)n$,'#i)n
To sum up m+ research paper on northern %osovo, it*s o"vious that even with the new
Brussels agreement the situation is not improving' n m+ opinion the L, Ser"ia and %osovo
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are forgetting that a sign agreement on paper is not the same as an agreement of the people
involved, the %osovo Ser"s and %osovo )l"anians' n m+ historic overview we saw the
speculation and evidence that the independence is not reall+ according to international law or
to the resolution 12' nternational Court of Iustice 4CI5 ruled onl+ that %osovo*s
declaration of independence is not in violation of international law, "ut the 3uestions of
%osovo*s as an independent state or legalit+ of their secession was not addressed'
)dditionall+, during m+ theoretical overview of secession it was mention that the theor+ of
secession represents one of the most controversial legal aspects with no regard to regional
sta"ilit+' ven with the CI ruling %osovo as an autonomous province was without the right to
selfdetermination'
ver+ little detail "rought me to m+ research 3uestion, partition or integration' @hen we loo
at the whole picture we can see that "oth scenarios have solid "ase for success' n m+ first
scenario of partition the pro"lem occurs that even with a high success in functioning state,
there is a low economic development with riss in regional insta"ilit+' The danger is in an end
of multiethnicit+ in Balans and a trigger to domino effect* where other secessionist group
starts to demand their own states' t*s a ma(or "lown to the political and economic
development in the Balans and !itrovica is a place which can trigger the domino effect'
!eanwhile m+ second scenario predicts integration "ased on )htisaari plan where the goals
for achieving the functioning state and economic development are high "ut with the riss of
migration of %osovo Ser"s out of %osovo, different attempt to destro+ the agreement and last
"ut not least political polariation' The, which supplemented the )htisaari plan for !itrovica
changed two municipalities which are operating under one "oard, while the Brussels
agreement hasn*t mention the creation of the "oard' The strange actions was also placing
northern !itrovica in another region what divided the cit+ on their ethnicit+' The agreement
was alread+ re(ected "+ the %osovo Ser" with manifestations' The+ e8press their anger
toward L and theirs attempts to control the administration'
)fter anal+ing the two suggested scenario, the integration is "etter for the citiens and "oth
governments' conomic development would "e higher and there is a smaller change of
escalading the violence, plus it with not fueled other secessionist group to start demands their
own states' ven if the partition scenario would most liel+ to "ring 3uicer regional sta"ilit+
for a while, the domino effect would "ring war in Balan region again' The Brussels
agreement isn*t a plan which is going to "ring sta"ilit+' 0n other hand %osovo Ser"s feel
"etra+ed* "+ Ser"ian government and are unwilling to su"mit to the rule of %osovo and with
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the strong emotion and resentment the future of the northern %osovo and the whole region is
in 3uestion'
)s a recommendation, thin that integration of northern %osovo is essential and for now it*s
important to maintain the LEN and %.0/ in the area' Change the education s+stem and
administration with the help of Ser"ian government' The acceptance of Ser"ia and its
interference is essential for the coverage high tension of %osovo Ser"s' t*s o"vious that with
the ma(orit+ of Ser" in the north of %osovo, Ser"ia is going to alwa+s "e involved, even if
"oth parties regard this area as no grata’.
=. Bi+,i):ra&%(
S-' 2#1D' Secession' )ccessi"le via:
http:GGplato'stanford'eduGentriesGsecessionGR/igSec/igTer 41' ma+ 2#1D5'
!orris, @' Christoper' 2##J' ) Theor+ of Secession: The Case for -olitical Self
Ketermination' )ccessi"le via: http:GGndpr'nd'eduGnewsG2?29Datheor+ofsecessionthe
caseforpoliticalselfdeterminationG 41' ma+ 2#1D5'
Bo+in, Scott' 199&' The thics of Secession' M Secession, State and Liberty. )ccessi"le via:
http:GGwww'dite8t'comG"o+inGethics'html 41' ma+ 2#1D5'
!aeester, H' Kaniel' 2#12' /emedial secession: a positive or negative force for the prevention
and reduction of armed conflict Canadian Foreign Policy Journal; 1& 425: 1?1A$D0
)ccessi"le via: http:GGwww'tandfonline'comGdoiGa"sG1#'1#G1192$22'2#12'J#9#?#
(ournalCodercfp2#R'LY.Ya%e0F! 42' ma+ 2#1D5'
Crisis Froup' 2#1D' %osovo Conflict Histor+' )ccessi"le via:
http:GGwww'crisisgroup'orgGenGpu"licationt+peGe+issuesGresearchresourcesGconflict
historiesGosovo'asp8 42' ma+ 2#1D5'
Lnited ations' 1999' Securit+ Council, welcoming Yugoslavia*s acceptance of peace
principles, authories civil, securit+ presence in %osovo' )ccessi"le via:
http:GGwww'un'orgGewsG-ressGdocsG1999G1999#$1#'SC$$&$'html 42' ma+ 2#1D5'
Taner, )dam and /eed Stevenson' 2#1#' %osovo independence declaration deemed legal'
)ccessi"le via: http:GGwww'reuters'comGarticleG2#1#G#JG22Gusser"iaosovo
idLST/$$E#1J2#1##J22 42' ma+ 2#1D5'
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"2
0!' 2#12' LSC /esolution 12A)dministreted %osovo' )ccessi"le via:
http:GGwww'iom'intGcmsGenGsitesGiomGhomeGwhereweworGeuropaGsoutheasterneurope
easterneurGunscresolution12administere'default'htmldispla+Ta"latestnews 42' ma+
2#1D5'
ES' 2#11' Ser"ia and regional sta"ilit+' )ccessi"le via:
http:GG"logs'lse'ac'uGideasG2#11G1#Gser"iaandregionalsta"ilit+G 42' ma+ 2#1D5'
Fallucci, !' Ferard' 2#1D' %osovo so what is -lan B Transconfict. )ccessi"le via:
http:GGwww'transconflict'comG2#1DG#Gosovosowhatisplan"#?G 42' ma+ 2#1D5'
Fallucci, !' Ferard' 2#12' %osovo U stuc in the same old places Transconfict. )ccessi"le
via: http:GGwww'transconflict'comG2#12G11Gosovostucinthesameoldplaces2D1G 42'
ma+ 2#1D5'
Kispatch' 2#1D' orthern %osovo: thnic violence escalates' )ccessi"le via:
http:GGwww'trivalle+central'comGcasaVgrandeVdispatchGworldVnewsGnorthernosovo
ethnicviolenceescalatesGarticleVJ??D9a#$Jca11e2&?ec##1a"cf&&Ja'html 42' ma+
2#1D5'
uronews' 2#12' Miolence flares in northern %osovo' )ccessi"le via:
http:GGwww'euronews'comG2#12G#$G#1GviolenceflaresinnorthernosovoG 42' ma+ 2#125'
!e+er, ' Steven' 2#1D' Securit+ Council /esolution 12 U ever+one*s favorite crutch'
Transconfict ' )ccessi"le via: http:GGwww'transconflict'comG2#1DG#DGsecurit+council
resolution12ever+onesfavoritecrutch11DG 4D' ma+ 2#1D5'
FrosMerhe+de, icolas' 2#1D' Belgrade et -ristina scellent leur accord sur le nord du
%osovo' Bruxelles2. )ccessi"le via: http:GGwww'"ru8elles2'euGonesG"osnie
osovoG"elgradeetpristinascellentleuraccordsurlenordduosovo'html 4D' ma+
2#1D5'
-rifti, viola' 2#1D' Belgrade-ristina: un accord histori3ue en perspective' L!nstitut d"tudes
de Securite de l#nion euro$eenne. )ccessi"le via:
http:GGwww'iss'europa'euGuploadsGmediaG)lertV%osovo'pdf 4D' ma+ 2#1D5'
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