new 7. the (maha) dalit factor in bihar’s politicsmaha)-dalit-factor... · 2015. 11. 4. · 7....
TRANSCRIPT
7 The (M aha) Dal i t Fact or i nBihar rsquos Pol i t i cs
Shreyas Sardesai
Until the 2010 election for the Bihar Assembly elections in the statewere largely analysed in terms of a six caste categories ndash Upper castesYadavs other OBCs Pasis other Dalits and Muslims Since 2007however Bihar politics has witnessed new developments and the castedimension of elections cannot be fully understood without taking intoaccount two additional caste categories namely EBCs or ExtremelyBackward Classes and Mahadalits This chapter seeks to analyse theemergence of latter and its implications In August 2007 the NitishKumar led JDU-BJP government set up the Bihar State MahadalitCommission to ldquoidentify the castes within Scheduled Castes who laggedbehind in the development processrdquo and to ldquostudy [their] educationaland social status and suggest measures for [their] upliftmentrdquo In April2008 18 Dalit castes were brought under the Mahadalit category tobegin with These are Bantar Bauri Bhogta Bhuiya Chaupal DabgarDomDhangad Ghasi Halalkhor HariMehtarBhangi Kanjar KurariarLalbegi Musahar Nat PanSwasi Rajwar and Turi Three months laterDhobi and Pasi castes were also added to the Mahadalit category basedon the Commissionrsquos recommendation and then Chamars were alsoincluded in the Mahadalit category by the state government in November2009 on the grounds that they too were lagging in literacy and economicstatus and were victims of untouchability at the hands of other Mahadalitcastes1 The only sub-caste that was left out was Paswan or Dusadh
Author is Research Associate at Lokniti Centre for the Study of Developing Societies1See httpmahadalitmissionorgBMVM-about-us-listphp VZzGJxvzrIU for
list of Mahadalit castes accessed on June 3 2015
Democracies80
(also part of the larger Pasi family) on the grounds that they were moreliterate and dominant among the Scheduled Castes (The Hindu Nov2009) Some political observers however saw the non-inclusion as adeliberate move by Nitish Kumar to settle a score with his politicaladversary Ram Vilas Paswan who has considerable clout among his castemen (The Telegraph Feb 15 2015) Recently (in February 2015) howeverthe Dusadh caste was finally included in the Mahadalit category by thenchief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi Manjhirsquos decision was read in thecontext of his rivalry with Nitish Kumar and his bid to emerge as aDalit leader acceptable to all ahead of the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections(Dasgupta 2015) This means that the entire Dalit population (all 22sub-castes) in Bihar now falls under the Mahadalit category and isentitled to benefits from state government programmes implementedby the Bihar Mahadalit Vikas Mission which was set up in 2008 (TheIndian Express 2015) These programmes include Mahadalit cregravechesprovision of a health card for every Mahadalit family and the grantingof three decimals of land to Maha Dalit families (The Hindu Aug 2009)While the Mahadalit category was created ostensibly for socio-economicupliftment and governance reasons as cited above it should alsoessentially be seen in political terms Its creation was not just for socialand economic justice but was also meant to shore up votes of theMahadalits by giving them a separate identity and it paid rich electoraldividends for the JDU and the BJP in the 2010 assembly election Sincethat election Mahadalit politics in the state has continued unabatedand Nitish Kumarrsquos move to make Jitan Ram Manjhi from the Musaharcaste the chief minister of Bihar soon after JDUrsquos 2014 Lok Sabha debaclewas yet another attempt by him to use the Mahadalit card It was widelyviewed as a ploy by Kumar to retain Mahadalit support for the JDUeven as the party was losing support among its core base It is anothermatter that the move backfired on Kumar as Manjhi revolted later dueto his own personal ambitions Desperate to hold on to power and withan eye on the 2015 assembly elections Manjhi played victim accusingNitish Kumar of humiliating a Mahadalit leader He later went on toform his own party the Hindustani Awam Morcha and subsequentlyannounced an alliance with the BJP (The Telegraph Jun 2015) Castehas been one of the predominant aspects of Bihar politics and with the
81
assembly elections due in the state later this year the question of whothe Dalits of Bihar vote for in the context of the statersquos new Mahadalitpolitics and Manjhirsquos revolt assumes significance This chapter will lookat how the various Dalit castes have been voting in the state duringVidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha elections over the last 15 years and whethertheir voting patterns offer any clues on what is likely to happen in thecoming election For the purposes of this chapter Mahadalit refers to allthe 18 castes that were designated as Mahadalit in the firstrecommendation in 2008 as well as the Dhobi caste PasisPaswans andChamars have been kept as separate analytical categories If we go bythe CSDS election surveys in Bihar that have been conducted over theyears on an average Mahadalit castes (19 castes) account for 4-5 percentof Biharrsquos population and 24 percent of the total Dalit population Pasisaccount for about 5-6 percent of the total population of the state and 37percent of the Dalit population whereas Chamars are around 6-7 percentof Biharrsquos population and 39 percent of the total Dalit population Thetotal Dalit population of the state as per Census 2011 is 159 percent(Tables 1 and 1a)
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies82
Tabl
e 1
Achi
eved
Sam
ple
Size
of D
alit
com
mun
ities
in C
SDS
Surv
eys i
n Bi
har
2000
-201
4
Com
mun
ity20
0020
04 L
S20
05 F
eb20
05 O
ct20
09 L
S20
1020
14 L
SCh
amar
148
6349
674
133
315
101
Pasi
Pas
wan
140
4847
037
133
309
88M
ahad
alit
113
5823
842
9318
586
Non
-SC
1829
1022
6490
732
1580
4152
1256
Tota
l22
3011
9176
9488
519
3949
6115
31N
ote
Cha
mar
as C
ham
ar P
asi a
s Pas
i Ra
jwar
Dho
bi M
usah
ar B
huiy
a et
c as
Mah
adal
it a
ll ot
her n
on-S
C ca
stes
as N
on-S
C
Tabl
e 1a
Prop
ortio
n of
SC
com
mun
ities
in T
otal
Sam
ple
of C
SDS
Surv
eys
in B
ihar
200
0-14
Com
mun
ity20
0020
04 L
S20
05 F
eb20
05 O
ct20
09 L
S20
1020
14 L
SAv
erag
eCh
amar
66
53
64
84
69
64
66
67
Pasi
Pas
wan
63
40
61
42
68
63
57
56
Mah
adal
it5
14
93
14
84
83
75
64
6N
on-S
C82
085
884
382
681
583
782
083
1N
ote
Cha
mar
as C
ham
ar P
asi a
s Pas
i Ra
jwar
Dho
bi M
usah
ar B
huiy
a et
c as
Mah
adal
it a
ll ot
her n
on-S
Cca
stes
as N
on-S
C
83
Mahadalit Voting PatternsMahadalits the poorest among Dalits who were once behind the
RJD (44 percent voted for the party in the 2000 Assembly election) haveshifted allegiance towards the BJP and the JDU over the last fifteenyears (Table 2) There has in fact been a steady decline in support amongMahadalits for RJD with every passing election since 2000 As per CSDSdata 33 percent Mahadalits voted for the RJD in the 2004 Lok Sabhaelection 27 percent in the February 2005 Vidhan Sabha election 22percent in the October 2005 assembly poll 12 percent in 2009 Lok Sabhaelection and 8 percent in the 2010 assembly and 2014 Lok Sabhaelections These figures show a clear pattern of declining Mahadalitsupport for the RJD A party that once used to get nearly half theMahadalit votes now barely gets one in ten Mahadalit votes The RJDrsquosloss has been the JDU and BJPrsquos gain The two parties in alliance netted33 to 36 percent of the Mahadalit vote between 2004 and 2009 and furtherincreased the share to 40 percent in the 2010 elections Among the twothe JDU did better than the BJP in 2004 and February 2005 whereasthe BJP did better in October 2005 and 2009 It was in the 2010 Assemblyelections however that the JDU raced ahead of the BJP and outdid itsalliance partner by a large margin getting 30 percent of Mahadalitsupport to BJPrsquos 11 percent This dramatic rise in Mahadalit support forthe JDU should be seen in the context of Nitish Kumarrsquos concertedattempts to woo the community through the setting up of the MahadalitCommission during his first tenure Since then the support of Mahadalitsfor the JDU has remained firm with 34 percent of them voting for theparty in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections The BJP however has been thebiggest gainer with the partyrsquos Mahadalit support rising dramaticallybetween 2010 and 2014 The party has seen its Mahadalit supportincrease from just one in ten votes in 2010 to one in four in 2014 when itfought the elections on its own after its alliance with JDU came apartover Narendra Modirsquos candidature for the post of Prime Minister It mustbe emphasized however that the rise in the BJPrsquos Mahadalit support in2014 came mainly at the expense of smaller parties and not the JDUThe JDUrsquos Mahadalit base remained intact during the 2014 electiondespite the party having contested on its own With both the BJP andthe JDU set to be on opposite sides once again in the upcoming 2015
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies84
assembly elections how badly the Mahadalit vote splits between thetwo parties remains to be seen Assuming that many Mahadalits votedfor the BJP in 2014 due to the Modi factor the challenge for the partywould be to retain their support now that Modi would be less of a factorin a state election The challenge for the JDU on the other hand is toconvince the Mahadalits to stay with it now that Jitan Ram Manjhiwho it consciously cultivated as a Mahadalit leader is no longer withthe party It still has some prominent Mahadalit leaders among its foldand will also be looking to bank on its alliance with the RJD and theCongress to make up for any lost votes on account of Manjhirsquos defectionWhile the RJD and the Congress have not been doing well amongMahadalits they nonetheless have been getting about 11 to 13 percentof the Mahadalit vote in the last two elections which could well prove tobe significant for the JDU if things do down to the wire
85Ta
ble
2D
alit
Vote
in B
ihar
Mah
adal
it Vo
ting
Patt
ern
Part
y20
0020
04 L
S20
05 F
eb20
05 O
ct20
09 L
S20
1020
14 L
SBJ
P22
1015
1920
1126
LJP
NA
35
129
77
JDU
-23
2017
1630
34RJ
D44
3327
2212
88
Cong
3
32
43
53
BSP
-5
59
96
-O
th
3123
2617
3133
22N
ote
201
4 Alli
ance
s - B
JP-L
JP-R
LSP
RJD
-Con
gres
s-N
CP(R
LSP
vote
and
NCP
vot
e inc
lude
d in
Oth
the
y go
t les
s tha
n on
e per
cent
Mah
adal
it vo
te)
2010
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-LJP
2009
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-LJP
2005
Oct
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-Con
g-N
CP(N
CP v
ote i
nclu
ded
in O
th i
t got
less
than
one p
erce
nt M
ahad
alit
vote
)20
05 F
eb A
llian
ces -
BJP
-JD
U C
ong-
LJP
RJD
-CPI
-CPM
-NCP
(CPI
CPM
NCP
incl
uded
in O
th t
hey
got 2
per
cent
of M
ahad
alit
vote
)20
04 A
llian
ces -
BJP
-JD
U R
JD-C
ong-
LJP-
NCP
(NCP
vot
e inc
lude
d in
Oth
it g
ot le
ss th
an on
e per
cent
Mah
adal
it vo
te)
2000
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-S
amta
-JD
U-B
PP R
JD-C
PM-J
DS-
MCo
r-SJ
D (R
asht
riya
)(S
amta
BPP
vot
e amp C
PM J
DS-
MCo
r-SJD
R vo
te in
clud
ed in
Oth
the
y got
less
than
one p
erce
nt M
ahad
alit
vote
)N
A m
eans
not
app
licab
le
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies86
Chamar Voting PatternsLike the Mahadalits the Chamars too have over the last fifteen
years moved away from the RJD Congress and other smaller entitiestowards the BJP JDU and the BSP The BJP which in 2000 got 7percent or less than one in ten Chamar votes has made significantinroads into the Chamar vote base (Table 3) The party got nearly onein seven Chamar votes in the 2010 assembly polls and one in fiveChamar votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha election If we take into accountthe Chamar votes polled for BJPrsquos alliance partner the LJP in the 2014election then the Chamar vote figure for BJP alliance touches 34percent or one third Meanwhile the combined vote share of the JDURJD and the Congress among Chamars was not far behind in 2014 at30 percent Interestingly the largest proportion of Chamar votes inBihar has been going to the Bahujan Samaj Party or BSP for a longtime now Mayawatirsquos party has been getting between one-fourth andone-third of the Chamar votes The BSPrsquos high point was in 2009 whenit got 35 percent of the Chamar votes This should be seen as a rub offof Mayawatirsquos landslide assembly election victory in neighboring UttarPradesh in 2007 Although Chamar support for the BSP in Bihar dippedsomewhat in 2010 and 2014 the party continued to get the highestshare of the communityrsquos votes in the state In the 2014 Lok Sabhaelection for instance the BSP got 26 percent of the Chamar vote whichwas greater than the BJPrsquos share at 20 percent This is extremelysignificant as even amidst the so-called Modi wave more Chamars votedfor the BSP than the BJP With both the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress locked in a tight battle for Chamar votes as of 2014 theBSPrsquos substantial Chamar base (26 percent as of 2014) assumes greatimportance in the run up to the 2015 assembly elections This is becauseboth the alliances would be looking to make a dent into the BSPrsquos fairlylarge core base Mayawati may not be much of player in Biharrsquos politicsbut her fairly solid following among Chamars in the state makes heran important factor even if in a limited way A tactical or hiddenunderstanding with her party by either of the two alliances may wellprove to be a game changer in a close election
87
Table 3Dalit Vote in Bihar Chamar Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 7 7 5 5 7 15 20LJP NA 2 8 17 7 5 14JDU 3 20 5 9 19 16 17RJD 27 31 25 16 12 12 7Cong 11 11 3 3 5 4 6BSP 7 18 25 24 35 28 26Oth 45 11 29 26 15 20 10
Note2014 - RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth they got less than one percentChamar vote2005 Oct - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Chamarvote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 3 pct Chamar vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR got lt1 pctNA means not applicable
Pasi Voting PatternsThe Pasi community politically socially and economically the
strongest of all Dalit sub-castes of Bihar has stayed loyal to Ram VilasPaswan and their voting pattern over the years has been determined bywhich party Paswanrsquos LJP has been in alliance with In election afterelection Paswan has been successful in transferring the Pasi vote to theparty he has aligned with In 2004 when LJP was in alliance with theRJD and Congress 58 percent of the Pasis voted for the RJD (Table 4)In the February 2005 assembly election when Paswan tied up with theCongress 40 percent voted for the LJP and 20 percent for the Congresshigher than for any other party In October 2005 when Paswan contestedthe elections on his own nearly half the Pasi community voted for theLJP In 2009 when the LJP contested in alliance with the RJD 50 percent
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies88
of the Pasis voted for alliance with the RJD alone netting 34 percent oftheir overall vote In 2010 the LJP-RJD alliance secured 55 percent ofthe Pasi vote Finally in the 2014 Lok Sabha election when LJP tied upwith the BJP 41 percent of the Pasis voted for the BJP Clearly the Pasivote is the most predictable and it can therefore be safely concludedthat with Paswan once again contesting in an alliance with the BJP forthe 2015 assembly elections Pasis are almost certain to throw theirweight behind the BJP
Table 4Dalit Vote in Bihar Pasi Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 21 12 16 4 8 5 41LJP NA 12 40 47 16 24 19JDU 11 15 4 7 18 16 6RJD 28 58 12 16 34 31 7Cong 9 3 20 3 6 7 2BSP - - - 4 9 3 2Oth 31 - 8 19 9 14 18Note2014 ndash RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth RLSP got 5 percent Pasi voteNCP got one percent Pasi vote2005 Oct ndash NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Pasivote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 7 pct Pasi vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR 6NA means not applicable
ConclusionFor the last two decades or so elections in Bihar have been mainly
understood by political analysts in terms OBC and Upper caste votingpreferences which have been dissected threadbare and have dominatedthe analytical discourse Dalit voting preferences on the other hand have
89
not received similar detailed attention at least not as much as theyhave in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh However the upcoming 2015election is likely to force political analysts as well as political parties togo beyond this OBC and Upper caste-centric approach for Bihar as Dalitchoices could well play a decisive role There has been a reinvention ofDalit identity in the state over the last eight years Nitish Kumar wasthe one who created the Mahadalit category in the first place But inrecent times Jitan Ram Manjhi has tried to play the same card moreaggressively after being handpicked for the post of chief minister byNitish Kumar and later after being dislodged Some of his decisionsduring his tenure as the Chief Minister such as incorporating Paswansin the category of Mahadalit and increasing entitlements of Dalits wereaimed at cultivating his image as a Mahadalit leader Before ManjhiBihar had had two chief ministers belonging to the Dalit community -Bhola Paswan Shastri (1968-1972) and Ram Sundar Das (1979-1980)However while they had operated within a political structure dominatedby upper castes and OBCs Manjhi refused to play second fiddle to hisOBC boss Nitish Kumar With Manjhi now deciding to fight the electionswith the BJP questions have been raised whether this would bring anyswing of the Dalit votes in favour of the BJP Though Manjhi belongs toMusahar which is a Mahadalit caste his own caste has been a staunchvote base of the CPI(ML) in thier strongholds It remains to be seenwhether Manjhi is able to get pan-Mahadalit support and if the ordernon-Musahar non-Paswan Mahadalit castes also rally behind him Howthe BJPrsquos core support base the upper castes reacts to Manjhi alsoremains to be seen Manjhi after all had made some very controversialstatements against upper castes while he was chief minister2 Anotherinteresting aspect to watch out for in the 2015 assembly elections wouldbe the preferences of men and women among the Dalit community Thisis because CSDS data from the 2014 Lok Sabha election reveals thatthere was a clear gender gap with respect to Dalit voting Dalit men voted
2At a function in Bettiah on January 1 2015 Jitan Ram Manjhi had termedupper caste people as ldquoforeigners and descendants of Aryan racerdquo
The BJP had slammed him for stoking caste tension in the stateFor more see lsquoManjhi dubs upper caste people as foreignersrsquo The Hindu January
2 2015 Available at httpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesmanjhi-dubs-upper-caste-people-as-foreigners-bjp-slams-commentarticle6590538ece
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies90
for the BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance in much greater proportion than Dalitwomen - 46 percent to 39 percent (Table 5) Moreover while the gap interms of votes between the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress (ifwe add up their votes) among Dalit men was a whopping 20 percentagepoints among Dalit women it was a neck-and-neck battle as bothformations got around 40 percent votes each This differing voting patternin terms of gender was the most pronounced among Dalits compared toother caste groups such as the OBCs and upper castes among whom menand women voted more or less similarly Within Dalits the gender dividein voting was most noticeable among Chamars compared to other sub-castes With Jitan Ram Manjhi eyeing the Dalit vote and harping on Dalitunity this gender divide among Dalits could well be Nitish Kumarrsquos besthope to offset the Manjhi factor and the former JDU leaderrsquos attempt tocreate a unified Dalit vote Kumar may well succeed in retaining theadvantage JDU has among Dalit women vis a vis Dalit men consideringhe has been actively wooing the womenrsquos vote by introducing severalwelfare schemes for them during his tenure (Srivastava 2015)
Table 5Voting patterns of SC OBC and Upper Castes in
2014 LS election by Gender
Caste group by Gender 2014 Lok Sabha electionVote BJP+ Vote JDU+
SCMen 45 25Women 39 40OBCMen 31 54Women 30 53Upper casteMen 80 11Women 80 17Note BJP+ includes BJP LJP and RLSP JDU+ includes JDU RJD and CongressJDU contested independently in 2014 but since JDU RJD and Congress are fightingthe 2015 assembly elections together their vote shares for 2014 have been added here
91
References 1 The Hindu (2009) Non-inclusion of Paswans in Maha Dalit list angers Paswan
The Hindu November 19 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available athttpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesnoninclusion-of-paswans-in-maha-dalit-list-angers-paswanarticle51356ece
2 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi rush to please Paswan The Telegraph February15 2015 Report by Anand Raj Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150215jspfrontpagestory3478jsp VW_zrdLzrIU
3 Dasgupta Subhabrata (2015) Manjhirsquos lsquoMahadalitrsquo stunt An election gimmickBihar voters are too smart to buy saddahaqcom February 17 2015 Availableat httpswwwsaddahaqcompoliticsmanjhis mahadalitmovemanjhis-mahadalit-stunt-an-election-gimmick-bihar-voters-are-too-smart-to-buy
4 The Indian Express (2015) All Dalits now Mahadalits question is whorsquostheir leader The Indian Express February 16 2015 Report by Santosh SinghAvailable at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersall-dalits-now-mahadalits-question-is-whos-their-leadersthashl49 YeAhadpuf
5 The Hindu (2009) Nitish attempt to uplift lsquoMaha Dalitrsquo base The Hindu August1 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available at httpwwwthehinducomtodays-papertp-nationaltp-otherstatesnitish-attempt-to-uplift-maha-dalit-basearticle194636ece
6 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi foot in BJP camp The Telegraph June 12 2015Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150612jspfrontpagestory_25228jspVZzO7RvzrIU
7 Ahmed Soroor (2014) Dalit pull in Bihar politics Daily News and AnalysisOctober 7 2014 Available at httpwwwdnaindiacomanalysiscolumn-dalit-pull-in-bihar-politics-2023991
8 Jha Dhirendra (2015) How Bihar chief minister Manjhi revived Dalit politicsin the Hindi belt Scrollin January 11 2015 Available at httpscrollinarticle699711how-bihar-chief-minister-manjhi-revived-dalit-politics-in-the-hindi-belt
9 Singh Santosh (2015) 10 Manjhi decisions which Nitish will find difficult toreverse The Indian Express February 24 2015 Available at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersmanjhis-legacy-on-nitishs-shoulders
10 The Telegraph (2015) Mahadalit hurdle stares at Nitish The TelegraphFebruary 9 2015 Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150209jspbiharstory_2267jspVZpdZhvzrIV
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies92
11 Srivastava Arun (2015) Bihar Nitishrsquos Search for Strategy to Uplift WomenAhead of Elections Mainstream Vol LIII No 18 April 25 2015 Available athttpwwwmainstreamweeklynetarticle5625html
m m m
Democracies80
(also part of the larger Pasi family) on the grounds that they were moreliterate and dominant among the Scheduled Castes (The Hindu Nov2009) Some political observers however saw the non-inclusion as adeliberate move by Nitish Kumar to settle a score with his politicaladversary Ram Vilas Paswan who has considerable clout among his castemen (The Telegraph Feb 15 2015) Recently (in February 2015) howeverthe Dusadh caste was finally included in the Mahadalit category by thenchief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi Manjhirsquos decision was read in thecontext of his rivalry with Nitish Kumar and his bid to emerge as aDalit leader acceptable to all ahead of the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections(Dasgupta 2015) This means that the entire Dalit population (all 22sub-castes) in Bihar now falls under the Mahadalit category and isentitled to benefits from state government programmes implementedby the Bihar Mahadalit Vikas Mission which was set up in 2008 (TheIndian Express 2015) These programmes include Mahadalit cregravechesprovision of a health card for every Mahadalit family and the grantingof three decimals of land to Maha Dalit families (The Hindu Aug 2009)While the Mahadalit category was created ostensibly for socio-economicupliftment and governance reasons as cited above it should alsoessentially be seen in political terms Its creation was not just for socialand economic justice but was also meant to shore up votes of theMahadalits by giving them a separate identity and it paid rich electoraldividends for the JDU and the BJP in the 2010 assembly election Sincethat election Mahadalit politics in the state has continued unabatedand Nitish Kumarrsquos move to make Jitan Ram Manjhi from the Musaharcaste the chief minister of Bihar soon after JDUrsquos 2014 Lok Sabha debaclewas yet another attempt by him to use the Mahadalit card It was widelyviewed as a ploy by Kumar to retain Mahadalit support for the JDUeven as the party was losing support among its core base It is anothermatter that the move backfired on Kumar as Manjhi revolted later dueto his own personal ambitions Desperate to hold on to power and withan eye on the 2015 assembly elections Manjhi played victim accusingNitish Kumar of humiliating a Mahadalit leader He later went on toform his own party the Hindustani Awam Morcha and subsequentlyannounced an alliance with the BJP (The Telegraph Jun 2015) Castehas been one of the predominant aspects of Bihar politics and with the
81
assembly elections due in the state later this year the question of whothe Dalits of Bihar vote for in the context of the statersquos new Mahadalitpolitics and Manjhirsquos revolt assumes significance This chapter will lookat how the various Dalit castes have been voting in the state duringVidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha elections over the last 15 years and whethertheir voting patterns offer any clues on what is likely to happen in thecoming election For the purposes of this chapter Mahadalit refers to allthe 18 castes that were designated as Mahadalit in the firstrecommendation in 2008 as well as the Dhobi caste PasisPaswans andChamars have been kept as separate analytical categories If we go bythe CSDS election surveys in Bihar that have been conducted over theyears on an average Mahadalit castes (19 castes) account for 4-5 percentof Biharrsquos population and 24 percent of the total Dalit population Pasisaccount for about 5-6 percent of the total population of the state and 37percent of the Dalit population whereas Chamars are around 6-7 percentof Biharrsquos population and 39 percent of the total Dalit population Thetotal Dalit population of the state as per Census 2011 is 159 percent(Tables 1 and 1a)
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies82
Tabl
e 1
Achi
eved
Sam
ple
Size
of D
alit
com
mun
ities
in C
SDS
Surv
eys i
n Bi
har
2000
-201
4
Com
mun
ity20
0020
04 L
S20
05 F
eb20
05 O
ct20
09 L
S20
1020
14 L
SCh
amar
148
6349
674
133
315
101
Pasi
Pas
wan
140
4847
037
133
309
88M
ahad
alit
113
5823
842
9318
586
Non
-SC
1829
1022
6490
732
1580
4152
1256
Tota
l22
3011
9176
9488
519
3949
6115
31N
ote
Cha
mar
as C
ham
ar P
asi a
s Pas
i Ra
jwar
Dho
bi M
usah
ar B
huiy
a et
c as
Mah
adal
it a
ll ot
her n
on-S
C ca
stes
as N
on-S
C
Tabl
e 1a
Prop
ortio
n of
SC
com
mun
ities
in T
otal
Sam
ple
of C
SDS
Surv
eys
in B
ihar
200
0-14
Com
mun
ity20
0020
04 L
S20
05 F
eb20
05 O
ct20
09 L
S20
1020
14 L
SAv
erag
eCh
amar
66
53
64
84
69
64
66
67
Pasi
Pas
wan
63
40
61
42
68
63
57
56
Mah
adal
it5
14
93
14
84
83
75
64
6N
on-S
C82
085
884
382
681
583
782
083
1N
ote
Cha
mar
as C
ham
ar P
asi a
s Pas
i Ra
jwar
Dho
bi M
usah
ar B
huiy
a et
c as
Mah
adal
it a
ll ot
her n
on-S
Cca
stes
as N
on-S
C
83
Mahadalit Voting PatternsMahadalits the poorest among Dalits who were once behind the
RJD (44 percent voted for the party in the 2000 Assembly election) haveshifted allegiance towards the BJP and the JDU over the last fifteenyears (Table 2) There has in fact been a steady decline in support amongMahadalits for RJD with every passing election since 2000 As per CSDSdata 33 percent Mahadalits voted for the RJD in the 2004 Lok Sabhaelection 27 percent in the February 2005 Vidhan Sabha election 22percent in the October 2005 assembly poll 12 percent in 2009 Lok Sabhaelection and 8 percent in the 2010 assembly and 2014 Lok Sabhaelections These figures show a clear pattern of declining Mahadalitsupport for the RJD A party that once used to get nearly half theMahadalit votes now barely gets one in ten Mahadalit votes The RJDrsquosloss has been the JDU and BJPrsquos gain The two parties in alliance netted33 to 36 percent of the Mahadalit vote between 2004 and 2009 and furtherincreased the share to 40 percent in the 2010 elections Among the twothe JDU did better than the BJP in 2004 and February 2005 whereasthe BJP did better in October 2005 and 2009 It was in the 2010 Assemblyelections however that the JDU raced ahead of the BJP and outdid itsalliance partner by a large margin getting 30 percent of Mahadalitsupport to BJPrsquos 11 percent This dramatic rise in Mahadalit support forthe JDU should be seen in the context of Nitish Kumarrsquos concertedattempts to woo the community through the setting up of the MahadalitCommission during his first tenure Since then the support of Mahadalitsfor the JDU has remained firm with 34 percent of them voting for theparty in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections The BJP however has been thebiggest gainer with the partyrsquos Mahadalit support rising dramaticallybetween 2010 and 2014 The party has seen its Mahadalit supportincrease from just one in ten votes in 2010 to one in four in 2014 when itfought the elections on its own after its alliance with JDU came apartover Narendra Modirsquos candidature for the post of Prime Minister It mustbe emphasized however that the rise in the BJPrsquos Mahadalit support in2014 came mainly at the expense of smaller parties and not the JDUThe JDUrsquos Mahadalit base remained intact during the 2014 electiondespite the party having contested on its own With both the BJP andthe JDU set to be on opposite sides once again in the upcoming 2015
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies84
assembly elections how badly the Mahadalit vote splits between thetwo parties remains to be seen Assuming that many Mahadalits votedfor the BJP in 2014 due to the Modi factor the challenge for the partywould be to retain their support now that Modi would be less of a factorin a state election The challenge for the JDU on the other hand is toconvince the Mahadalits to stay with it now that Jitan Ram Manjhiwho it consciously cultivated as a Mahadalit leader is no longer withthe party It still has some prominent Mahadalit leaders among its foldand will also be looking to bank on its alliance with the RJD and theCongress to make up for any lost votes on account of Manjhirsquos defectionWhile the RJD and the Congress have not been doing well amongMahadalits they nonetheless have been getting about 11 to 13 percentof the Mahadalit vote in the last two elections which could well prove tobe significant for the JDU if things do down to the wire
85Ta
ble
2D
alit
Vote
in B
ihar
Mah
adal
it Vo
ting
Patt
ern
Part
y20
0020
04 L
S20
05 F
eb20
05 O
ct20
09 L
S20
1020
14 L
SBJ
P22
1015
1920
1126
LJP
NA
35
129
77
JDU
-23
2017
1630
34RJ
D44
3327
2212
88
Cong
3
32
43
53
BSP
-5
59
96
-O
th
3123
2617
3133
22N
ote
201
4 Alli
ance
s - B
JP-L
JP-R
LSP
RJD
-Con
gres
s-N
CP(R
LSP
vote
and
NCP
vot
e inc
lude
d in
Oth
the
y go
t les
s tha
n on
e per
cent
Mah
adal
it vo
te)
2010
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-LJP
2009
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-LJP
2005
Oct
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-Con
g-N
CP(N
CP v
ote i
nclu
ded
in O
th i
t got
less
than
one p
erce
nt M
ahad
alit
vote
)20
05 F
eb A
llian
ces -
BJP
-JD
U C
ong-
LJP
RJD
-CPI
-CPM
-NCP
(CPI
CPM
NCP
incl
uded
in O
th t
hey
got 2
per
cent
of M
ahad
alit
vote
)20
04 A
llian
ces -
BJP
-JD
U R
JD-C
ong-
LJP-
NCP
(NCP
vot
e inc
lude
d in
Oth
it g
ot le
ss th
an on
e per
cent
Mah
adal
it vo
te)
2000
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-S
amta
-JD
U-B
PP R
JD-C
PM-J
DS-
MCo
r-SJ
D (R
asht
riya
)(S
amta
BPP
vot
e amp C
PM J
DS-
MCo
r-SJD
R vo
te in
clud
ed in
Oth
the
y got
less
than
one p
erce
nt M
ahad
alit
vote
)N
A m
eans
not
app
licab
le
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies86
Chamar Voting PatternsLike the Mahadalits the Chamars too have over the last fifteen
years moved away from the RJD Congress and other smaller entitiestowards the BJP JDU and the BSP The BJP which in 2000 got 7percent or less than one in ten Chamar votes has made significantinroads into the Chamar vote base (Table 3) The party got nearly onein seven Chamar votes in the 2010 assembly polls and one in fiveChamar votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha election If we take into accountthe Chamar votes polled for BJPrsquos alliance partner the LJP in the 2014election then the Chamar vote figure for BJP alliance touches 34percent or one third Meanwhile the combined vote share of the JDURJD and the Congress among Chamars was not far behind in 2014 at30 percent Interestingly the largest proportion of Chamar votes inBihar has been going to the Bahujan Samaj Party or BSP for a longtime now Mayawatirsquos party has been getting between one-fourth andone-third of the Chamar votes The BSPrsquos high point was in 2009 whenit got 35 percent of the Chamar votes This should be seen as a rub offof Mayawatirsquos landslide assembly election victory in neighboring UttarPradesh in 2007 Although Chamar support for the BSP in Bihar dippedsomewhat in 2010 and 2014 the party continued to get the highestshare of the communityrsquos votes in the state In the 2014 Lok Sabhaelection for instance the BSP got 26 percent of the Chamar vote whichwas greater than the BJPrsquos share at 20 percent This is extremelysignificant as even amidst the so-called Modi wave more Chamars votedfor the BSP than the BJP With both the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress locked in a tight battle for Chamar votes as of 2014 theBSPrsquos substantial Chamar base (26 percent as of 2014) assumes greatimportance in the run up to the 2015 assembly elections This is becauseboth the alliances would be looking to make a dent into the BSPrsquos fairlylarge core base Mayawati may not be much of player in Biharrsquos politicsbut her fairly solid following among Chamars in the state makes heran important factor even if in a limited way A tactical or hiddenunderstanding with her party by either of the two alliances may wellprove to be a game changer in a close election
87
Table 3Dalit Vote in Bihar Chamar Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 7 7 5 5 7 15 20LJP NA 2 8 17 7 5 14JDU 3 20 5 9 19 16 17RJD 27 31 25 16 12 12 7Cong 11 11 3 3 5 4 6BSP 7 18 25 24 35 28 26Oth 45 11 29 26 15 20 10
Note2014 - RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth they got less than one percentChamar vote2005 Oct - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Chamarvote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 3 pct Chamar vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR got lt1 pctNA means not applicable
Pasi Voting PatternsThe Pasi community politically socially and economically the
strongest of all Dalit sub-castes of Bihar has stayed loyal to Ram VilasPaswan and their voting pattern over the years has been determined bywhich party Paswanrsquos LJP has been in alliance with In election afterelection Paswan has been successful in transferring the Pasi vote to theparty he has aligned with In 2004 when LJP was in alliance with theRJD and Congress 58 percent of the Pasis voted for the RJD (Table 4)In the February 2005 assembly election when Paswan tied up with theCongress 40 percent voted for the LJP and 20 percent for the Congresshigher than for any other party In October 2005 when Paswan contestedthe elections on his own nearly half the Pasi community voted for theLJP In 2009 when the LJP contested in alliance with the RJD 50 percent
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies88
of the Pasis voted for alliance with the RJD alone netting 34 percent oftheir overall vote In 2010 the LJP-RJD alliance secured 55 percent ofthe Pasi vote Finally in the 2014 Lok Sabha election when LJP tied upwith the BJP 41 percent of the Pasis voted for the BJP Clearly the Pasivote is the most predictable and it can therefore be safely concludedthat with Paswan once again contesting in an alliance with the BJP forthe 2015 assembly elections Pasis are almost certain to throw theirweight behind the BJP
Table 4Dalit Vote in Bihar Pasi Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 21 12 16 4 8 5 41LJP NA 12 40 47 16 24 19JDU 11 15 4 7 18 16 6RJD 28 58 12 16 34 31 7Cong 9 3 20 3 6 7 2BSP - - - 4 9 3 2Oth 31 - 8 19 9 14 18Note2014 ndash RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth RLSP got 5 percent Pasi voteNCP got one percent Pasi vote2005 Oct ndash NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Pasivote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 7 pct Pasi vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR 6NA means not applicable
ConclusionFor the last two decades or so elections in Bihar have been mainly
understood by political analysts in terms OBC and Upper caste votingpreferences which have been dissected threadbare and have dominatedthe analytical discourse Dalit voting preferences on the other hand have
89
not received similar detailed attention at least not as much as theyhave in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh However the upcoming 2015election is likely to force political analysts as well as political parties togo beyond this OBC and Upper caste-centric approach for Bihar as Dalitchoices could well play a decisive role There has been a reinvention ofDalit identity in the state over the last eight years Nitish Kumar wasthe one who created the Mahadalit category in the first place But inrecent times Jitan Ram Manjhi has tried to play the same card moreaggressively after being handpicked for the post of chief minister byNitish Kumar and later after being dislodged Some of his decisionsduring his tenure as the Chief Minister such as incorporating Paswansin the category of Mahadalit and increasing entitlements of Dalits wereaimed at cultivating his image as a Mahadalit leader Before ManjhiBihar had had two chief ministers belonging to the Dalit community -Bhola Paswan Shastri (1968-1972) and Ram Sundar Das (1979-1980)However while they had operated within a political structure dominatedby upper castes and OBCs Manjhi refused to play second fiddle to hisOBC boss Nitish Kumar With Manjhi now deciding to fight the electionswith the BJP questions have been raised whether this would bring anyswing of the Dalit votes in favour of the BJP Though Manjhi belongs toMusahar which is a Mahadalit caste his own caste has been a staunchvote base of the CPI(ML) in thier strongholds It remains to be seenwhether Manjhi is able to get pan-Mahadalit support and if the ordernon-Musahar non-Paswan Mahadalit castes also rally behind him Howthe BJPrsquos core support base the upper castes reacts to Manjhi alsoremains to be seen Manjhi after all had made some very controversialstatements against upper castes while he was chief minister2 Anotherinteresting aspect to watch out for in the 2015 assembly elections wouldbe the preferences of men and women among the Dalit community Thisis because CSDS data from the 2014 Lok Sabha election reveals thatthere was a clear gender gap with respect to Dalit voting Dalit men voted
2At a function in Bettiah on January 1 2015 Jitan Ram Manjhi had termedupper caste people as ldquoforeigners and descendants of Aryan racerdquo
The BJP had slammed him for stoking caste tension in the stateFor more see lsquoManjhi dubs upper caste people as foreignersrsquo The Hindu January
2 2015 Available at httpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesmanjhi-dubs-upper-caste-people-as-foreigners-bjp-slams-commentarticle6590538ece
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies90
for the BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance in much greater proportion than Dalitwomen - 46 percent to 39 percent (Table 5) Moreover while the gap interms of votes between the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress (ifwe add up their votes) among Dalit men was a whopping 20 percentagepoints among Dalit women it was a neck-and-neck battle as bothformations got around 40 percent votes each This differing voting patternin terms of gender was the most pronounced among Dalits compared toother caste groups such as the OBCs and upper castes among whom menand women voted more or less similarly Within Dalits the gender dividein voting was most noticeable among Chamars compared to other sub-castes With Jitan Ram Manjhi eyeing the Dalit vote and harping on Dalitunity this gender divide among Dalits could well be Nitish Kumarrsquos besthope to offset the Manjhi factor and the former JDU leaderrsquos attempt tocreate a unified Dalit vote Kumar may well succeed in retaining theadvantage JDU has among Dalit women vis a vis Dalit men consideringhe has been actively wooing the womenrsquos vote by introducing severalwelfare schemes for them during his tenure (Srivastava 2015)
Table 5Voting patterns of SC OBC and Upper Castes in
2014 LS election by Gender
Caste group by Gender 2014 Lok Sabha electionVote BJP+ Vote JDU+
SCMen 45 25Women 39 40OBCMen 31 54Women 30 53Upper casteMen 80 11Women 80 17Note BJP+ includes BJP LJP and RLSP JDU+ includes JDU RJD and CongressJDU contested independently in 2014 but since JDU RJD and Congress are fightingthe 2015 assembly elections together their vote shares for 2014 have been added here
91
References 1 The Hindu (2009) Non-inclusion of Paswans in Maha Dalit list angers Paswan
The Hindu November 19 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available athttpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesnoninclusion-of-paswans-in-maha-dalit-list-angers-paswanarticle51356ece
2 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi rush to please Paswan The Telegraph February15 2015 Report by Anand Raj Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150215jspfrontpagestory3478jsp VW_zrdLzrIU
3 Dasgupta Subhabrata (2015) Manjhirsquos lsquoMahadalitrsquo stunt An election gimmickBihar voters are too smart to buy saddahaqcom February 17 2015 Availableat httpswwwsaddahaqcompoliticsmanjhis mahadalitmovemanjhis-mahadalit-stunt-an-election-gimmick-bihar-voters-are-too-smart-to-buy
4 The Indian Express (2015) All Dalits now Mahadalits question is whorsquostheir leader The Indian Express February 16 2015 Report by Santosh SinghAvailable at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersall-dalits-now-mahadalits-question-is-whos-their-leadersthashl49 YeAhadpuf
5 The Hindu (2009) Nitish attempt to uplift lsquoMaha Dalitrsquo base The Hindu August1 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available at httpwwwthehinducomtodays-papertp-nationaltp-otherstatesnitish-attempt-to-uplift-maha-dalit-basearticle194636ece
6 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi foot in BJP camp The Telegraph June 12 2015Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150612jspfrontpagestory_25228jspVZzO7RvzrIU
7 Ahmed Soroor (2014) Dalit pull in Bihar politics Daily News and AnalysisOctober 7 2014 Available at httpwwwdnaindiacomanalysiscolumn-dalit-pull-in-bihar-politics-2023991
8 Jha Dhirendra (2015) How Bihar chief minister Manjhi revived Dalit politicsin the Hindi belt Scrollin January 11 2015 Available at httpscrollinarticle699711how-bihar-chief-minister-manjhi-revived-dalit-politics-in-the-hindi-belt
9 Singh Santosh (2015) 10 Manjhi decisions which Nitish will find difficult toreverse The Indian Express February 24 2015 Available at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersmanjhis-legacy-on-nitishs-shoulders
10 The Telegraph (2015) Mahadalit hurdle stares at Nitish The TelegraphFebruary 9 2015 Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150209jspbiharstory_2267jspVZpdZhvzrIV
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies92
11 Srivastava Arun (2015) Bihar Nitishrsquos Search for Strategy to Uplift WomenAhead of Elections Mainstream Vol LIII No 18 April 25 2015 Available athttpwwwmainstreamweeklynetarticle5625html
m m m
81
assembly elections due in the state later this year the question of whothe Dalits of Bihar vote for in the context of the statersquos new Mahadalitpolitics and Manjhirsquos revolt assumes significance This chapter will lookat how the various Dalit castes have been voting in the state duringVidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha elections over the last 15 years and whethertheir voting patterns offer any clues on what is likely to happen in thecoming election For the purposes of this chapter Mahadalit refers to allthe 18 castes that were designated as Mahadalit in the firstrecommendation in 2008 as well as the Dhobi caste PasisPaswans andChamars have been kept as separate analytical categories If we go bythe CSDS election surveys in Bihar that have been conducted over theyears on an average Mahadalit castes (19 castes) account for 4-5 percentof Biharrsquos population and 24 percent of the total Dalit population Pasisaccount for about 5-6 percent of the total population of the state and 37percent of the Dalit population whereas Chamars are around 6-7 percentof Biharrsquos population and 39 percent of the total Dalit population Thetotal Dalit population of the state as per Census 2011 is 159 percent(Tables 1 and 1a)
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies82
Tabl
e 1
Achi
eved
Sam
ple
Size
of D
alit
com
mun
ities
in C
SDS
Surv
eys i
n Bi
har
2000
-201
4
Com
mun
ity20
0020
04 L
S20
05 F
eb20
05 O
ct20
09 L
S20
1020
14 L
SCh
amar
148
6349
674
133
315
101
Pasi
Pas
wan
140
4847
037
133
309
88M
ahad
alit
113
5823
842
9318
586
Non
-SC
1829
1022
6490
732
1580
4152
1256
Tota
l22
3011
9176
9488
519
3949
6115
31N
ote
Cha
mar
as C
ham
ar P
asi a
s Pas
i Ra
jwar
Dho
bi M
usah
ar B
huiy
a et
c as
Mah
adal
it a
ll ot
her n
on-S
C ca
stes
as N
on-S
C
Tabl
e 1a
Prop
ortio
n of
SC
com
mun
ities
in T
otal
Sam
ple
of C
SDS
Surv
eys
in B
ihar
200
0-14
Com
mun
ity20
0020
04 L
S20
05 F
eb20
05 O
ct20
09 L
S20
1020
14 L
SAv
erag
eCh
amar
66
53
64
84
69
64
66
67
Pasi
Pas
wan
63
40
61
42
68
63
57
56
Mah
adal
it5
14
93
14
84
83
75
64
6N
on-S
C82
085
884
382
681
583
782
083
1N
ote
Cha
mar
as C
ham
ar P
asi a
s Pas
i Ra
jwar
Dho
bi M
usah
ar B
huiy
a et
c as
Mah
adal
it a
ll ot
her n
on-S
Cca
stes
as N
on-S
C
83
Mahadalit Voting PatternsMahadalits the poorest among Dalits who were once behind the
RJD (44 percent voted for the party in the 2000 Assembly election) haveshifted allegiance towards the BJP and the JDU over the last fifteenyears (Table 2) There has in fact been a steady decline in support amongMahadalits for RJD with every passing election since 2000 As per CSDSdata 33 percent Mahadalits voted for the RJD in the 2004 Lok Sabhaelection 27 percent in the February 2005 Vidhan Sabha election 22percent in the October 2005 assembly poll 12 percent in 2009 Lok Sabhaelection and 8 percent in the 2010 assembly and 2014 Lok Sabhaelections These figures show a clear pattern of declining Mahadalitsupport for the RJD A party that once used to get nearly half theMahadalit votes now barely gets one in ten Mahadalit votes The RJDrsquosloss has been the JDU and BJPrsquos gain The two parties in alliance netted33 to 36 percent of the Mahadalit vote between 2004 and 2009 and furtherincreased the share to 40 percent in the 2010 elections Among the twothe JDU did better than the BJP in 2004 and February 2005 whereasthe BJP did better in October 2005 and 2009 It was in the 2010 Assemblyelections however that the JDU raced ahead of the BJP and outdid itsalliance partner by a large margin getting 30 percent of Mahadalitsupport to BJPrsquos 11 percent This dramatic rise in Mahadalit support forthe JDU should be seen in the context of Nitish Kumarrsquos concertedattempts to woo the community through the setting up of the MahadalitCommission during his first tenure Since then the support of Mahadalitsfor the JDU has remained firm with 34 percent of them voting for theparty in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections The BJP however has been thebiggest gainer with the partyrsquos Mahadalit support rising dramaticallybetween 2010 and 2014 The party has seen its Mahadalit supportincrease from just one in ten votes in 2010 to one in four in 2014 when itfought the elections on its own after its alliance with JDU came apartover Narendra Modirsquos candidature for the post of Prime Minister It mustbe emphasized however that the rise in the BJPrsquos Mahadalit support in2014 came mainly at the expense of smaller parties and not the JDUThe JDUrsquos Mahadalit base remained intact during the 2014 electiondespite the party having contested on its own With both the BJP andthe JDU set to be on opposite sides once again in the upcoming 2015
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies84
assembly elections how badly the Mahadalit vote splits between thetwo parties remains to be seen Assuming that many Mahadalits votedfor the BJP in 2014 due to the Modi factor the challenge for the partywould be to retain their support now that Modi would be less of a factorin a state election The challenge for the JDU on the other hand is toconvince the Mahadalits to stay with it now that Jitan Ram Manjhiwho it consciously cultivated as a Mahadalit leader is no longer withthe party It still has some prominent Mahadalit leaders among its foldand will also be looking to bank on its alliance with the RJD and theCongress to make up for any lost votes on account of Manjhirsquos defectionWhile the RJD and the Congress have not been doing well amongMahadalits they nonetheless have been getting about 11 to 13 percentof the Mahadalit vote in the last two elections which could well prove tobe significant for the JDU if things do down to the wire
85Ta
ble
2D
alit
Vote
in B
ihar
Mah
adal
it Vo
ting
Patt
ern
Part
y20
0020
04 L
S20
05 F
eb20
05 O
ct20
09 L
S20
1020
14 L
SBJ
P22
1015
1920
1126
LJP
NA
35
129
77
JDU
-23
2017
1630
34RJ
D44
3327
2212
88
Cong
3
32
43
53
BSP
-5
59
96
-O
th
3123
2617
3133
22N
ote
201
4 Alli
ance
s - B
JP-L
JP-R
LSP
RJD
-Con
gres
s-N
CP(R
LSP
vote
and
NCP
vot
e inc
lude
d in
Oth
the
y go
t les
s tha
n on
e per
cent
Mah
adal
it vo
te)
2010
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-LJP
2009
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-LJP
2005
Oct
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-Con
g-N
CP(N
CP v
ote i
nclu
ded
in O
th i
t got
less
than
one p
erce
nt M
ahad
alit
vote
)20
05 F
eb A
llian
ces -
BJP
-JD
U C
ong-
LJP
RJD
-CPI
-CPM
-NCP
(CPI
CPM
NCP
incl
uded
in O
th t
hey
got 2
per
cent
of M
ahad
alit
vote
)20
04 A
llian
ces -
BJP
-JD
U R
JD-C
ong-
LJP-
NCP
(NCP
vot
e inc
lude
d in
Oth
it g
ot le
ss th
an on
e per
cent
Mah
adal
it vo
te)
2000
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-S
amta
-JD
U-B
PP R
JD-C
PM-J
DS-
MCo
r-SJ
D (R
asht
riya
)(S
amta
BPP
vot
e amp C
PM J
DS-
MCo
r-SJD
R vo
te in
clud
ed in
Oth
the
y got
less
than
one p
erce
nt M
ahad
alit
vote
)N
A m
eans
not
app
licab
le
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies86
Chamar Voting PatternsLike the Mahadalits the Chamars too have over the last fifteen
years moved away from the RJD Congress and other smaller entitiestowards the BJP JDU and the BSP The BJP which in 2000 got 7percent or less than one in ten Chamar votes has made significantinroads into the Chamar vote base (Table 3) The party got nearly onein seven Chamar votes in the 2010 assembly polls and one in fiveChamar votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha election If we take into accountthe Chamar votes polled for BJPrsquos alliance partner the LJP in the 2014election then the Chamar vote figure for BJP alliance touches 34percent or one third Meanwhile the combined vote share of the JDURJD and the Congress among Chamars was not far behind in 2014 at30 percent Interestingly the largest proportion of Chamar votes inBihar has been going to the Bahujan Samaj Party or BSP for a longtime now Mayawatirsquos party has been getting between one-fourth andone-third of the Chamar votes The BSPrsquos high point was in 2009 whenit got 35 percent of the Chamar votes This should be seen as a rub offof Mayawatirsquos landslide assembly election victory in neighboring UttarPradesh in 2007 Although Chamar support for the BSP in Bihar dippedsomewhat in 2010 and 2014 the party continued to get the highestshare of the communityrsquos votes in the state In the 2014 Lok Sabhaelection for instance the BSP got 26 percent of the Chamar vote whichwas greater than the BJPrsquos share at 20 percent This is extremelysignificant as even amidst the so-called Modi wave more Chamars votedfor the BSP than the BJP With both the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress locked in a tight battle for Chamar votes as of 2014 theBSPrsquos substantial Chamar base (26 percent as of 2014) assumes greatimportance in the run up to the 2015 assembly elections This is becauseboth the alliances would be looking to make a dent into the BSPrsquos fairlylarge core base Mayawati may not be much of player in Biharrsquos politicsbut her fairly solid following among Chamars in the state makes heran important factor even if in a limited way A tactical or hiddenunderstanding with her party by either of the two alliances may wellprove to be a game changer in a close election
87
Table 3Dalit Vote in Bihar Chamar Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 7 7 5 5 7 15 20LJP NA 2 8 17 7 5 14JDU 3 20 5 9 19 16 17RJD 27 31 25 16 12 12 7Cong 11 11 3 3 5 4 6BSP 7 18 25 24 35 28 26Oth 45 11 29 26 15 20 10
Note2014 - RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth they got less than one percentChamar vote2005 Oct - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Chamarvote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 3 pct Chamar vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR got lt1 pctNA means not applicable
Pasi Voting PatternsThe Pasi community politically socially and economically the
strongest of all Dalit sub-castes of Bihar has stayed loyal to Ram VilasPaswan and their voting pattern over the years has been determined bywhich party Paswanrsquos LJP has been in alliance with In election afterelection Paswan has been successful in transferring the Pasi vote to theparty he has aligned with In 2004 when LJP was in alliance with theRJD and Congress 58 percent of the Pasis voted for the RJD (Table 4)In the February 2005 assembly election when Paswan tied up with theCongress 40 percent voted for the LJP and 20 percent for the Congresshigher than for any other party In October 2005 when Paswan contestedthe elections on his own nearly half the Pasi community voted for theLJP In 2009 when the LJP contested in alliance with the RJD 50 percent
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies88
of the Pasis voted for alliance with the RJD alone netting 34 percent oftheir overall vote In 2010 the LJP-RJD alliance secured 55 percent ofthe Pasi vote Finally in the 2014 Lok Sabha election when LJP tied upwith the BJP 41 percent of the Pasis voted for the BJP Clearly the Pasivote is the most predictable and it can therefore be safely concludedthat with Paswan once again contesting in an alliance with the BJP forthe 2015 assembly elections Pasis are almost certain to throw theirweight behind the BJP
Table 4Dalit Vote in Bihar Pasi Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 21 12 16 4 8 5 41LJP NA 12 40 47 16 24 19JDU 11 15 4 7 18 16 6RJD 28 58 12 16 34 31 7Cong 9 3 20 3 6 7 2BSP - - - 4 9 3 2Oth 31 - 8 19 9 14 18Note2014 ndash RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth RLSP got 5 percent Pasi voteNCP got one percent Pasi vote2005 Oct ndash NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Pasivote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 7 pct Pasi vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR 6NA means not applicable
ConclusionFor the last two decades or so elections in Bihar have been mainly
understood by political analysts in terms OBC and Upper caste votingpreferences which have been dissected threadbare and have dominatedthe analytical discourse Dalit voting preferences on the other hand have
89
not received similar detailed attention at least not as much as theyhave in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh However the upcoming 2015election is likely to force political analysts as well as political parties togo beyond this OBC and Upper caste-centric approach for Bihar as Dalitchoices could well play a decisive role There has been a reinvention ofDalit identity in the state over the last eight years Nitish Kumar wasthe one who created the Mahadalit category in the first place But inrecent times Jitan Ram Manjhi has tried to play the same card moreaggressively after being handpicked for the post of chief minister byNitish Kumar and later after being dislodged Some of his decisionsduring his tenure as the Chief Minister such as incorporating Paswansin the category of Mahadalit and increasing entitlements of Dalits wereaimed at cultivating his image as a Mahadalit leader Before ManjhiBihar had had two chief ministers belonging to the Dalit community -Bhola Paswan Shastri (1968-1972) and Ram Sundar Das (1979-1980)However while they had operated within a political structure dominatedby upper castes and OBCs Manjhi refused to play second fiddle to hisOBC boss Nitish Kumar With Manjhi now deciding to fight the electionswith the BJP questions have been raised whether this would bring anyswing of the Dalit votes in favour of the BJP Though Manjhi belongs toMusahar which is a Mahadalit caste his own caste has been a staunchvote base of the CPI(ML) in thier strongholds It remains to be seenwhether Manjhi is able to get pan-Mahadalit support and if the ordernon-Musahar non-Paswan Mahadalit castes also rally behind him Howthe BJPrsquos core support base the upper castes reacts to Manjhi alsoremains to be seen Manjhi after all had made some very controversialstatements against upper castes while he was chief minister2 Anotherinteresting aspect to watch out for in the 2015 assembly elections wouldbe the preferences of men and women among the Dalit community Thisis because CSDS data from the 2014 Lok Sabha election reveals thatthere was a clear gender gap with respect to Dalit voting Dalit men voted
2At a function in Bettiah on January 1 2015 Jitan Ram Manjhi had termedupper caste people as ldquoforeigners and descendants of Aryan racerdquo
The BJP had slammed him for stoking caste tension in the stateFor more see lsquoManjhi dubs upper caste people as foreignersrsquo The Hindu January
2 2015 Available at httpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesmanjhi-dubs-upper-caste-people-as-foreigners-bjp-slams-commentarticle6590538ece
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies90
for the BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance in much greater proportion than Dalitwomen - 46 percent to 39 percent (Table 5) Moreover while the gap interms of votes between the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress (ifwe add up their votes) among Dalit men was a whopping 20 percentagepoints among Dalit women it was a neck-and-neck battle as bothformations got around 40 percent votes each This differing voting patternin terms of gender was the most pronounced among Dalits compared toother caste groups such as the OBCs and upper castes among whom menand women voted more or less similarly Within Dalits the gender dividein voting was most noticeable among Chamars compared to other sub-castes With Jitan Ram Manjhi eyeing the Dalit vote and harping on Dalitunity this gender divide among Dalits could well be Nitish Kumarrsquos besthope to offset the Manjhi factor and the former JDU leaderrsquos attempt tocreate a unified Dalit vote Kumar may well succeed in retaining theadvantage JDU has among Dalit women vis a vis Dalit men consideringhe has been actively wooing the womenrsquos vote by introducing severalwelfare schemes for them during his tenure (Srivastava 2015)
Table 5Voting patterns of SC OBC and Upper Castes in
2014 LS election by Gender
Caste group by Gender 2014 Lok Sabha electionVote BJP+ Vote JDU+
SCMen 45 25Women 39 40OBCMen 31 54Women 30 53Upper casteMen 80 11Women 80 17Note BJP+ includes BJP LJP and RLSP JDU+ includes JDU RJD and CongressJDU contested independently in 2014 but since JDU RJD and Congress are fightingthe 2015 assembly elections together their vote shares for 2014 have been added here
91
References 1 The Hindu (2009) Non-inclusion of Paswans in Maha Dalit list angers Paswan
The Hindu November 19 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available athttpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesnoninclusion-of-paswans-in-maha-dalit-list-angers-paswanarticle51356ece
2 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi rush to please Paswan The Telegraph February15 2015 Report by Anand Raj Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150215jspfrontpagestory3478jsp VW_zrdLzrIU
3 Dasgupta Subhabrata (2015) Manjhirsquos lsquoMahadalitrsquo stunt An election gimmickBihar voters are too smart to buy saddahaqcom February 17 2015 Availableat httpswwwsaddahaqcompoliticsmanjhis mahadalitmovemanjhis-mahadalit-stunt-an-election-gimmick-bihar-voters-are-too-smart-to-buy
4 The Indian Express (2015) All Dalits now Mahadalits question is whorsquostheir leader The Indian Express February 16 2015 Report by Santosh SinghAvailable at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersall-dalits-now-mahadalits-question-is-whos-their-leadersthashl49 YeAhadpuf
5 The Hindu (2009) Nitish attempt to uplift lsquoMaha Dalitrsquo base The Hindu August1 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available at httpwwwthehinducomtodays-papertp-nationaltp-otherstatesnitish-attempt-to-uplift-maha-dalit-basearticle194636ece
6 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi foot in BJP camp The Telegraph June 12 2015Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150612jspfrontpagestory_25228jspVZzO7RvzrIU
7 Ahmed Soroor (2014) Dalit pull in Bihar politics Daily News and AnalysisOctober 7 2014 Available at httpwwwdnaindiacomanalysiscolumn-dalit-pull-in-bihar-politics-2023991
8 Jha Dhirendra (2015) How Bihar chief minister Manjhi revived Dalit politicsin the Hindi belt Scrollin January 11 2015 Available at httpscrollinarticle699711how-bihar-chief-minister-manjhi-revived-dalit-politics-in-the-hindi-belt
9 Singh Santosh (2015) 10 Manjhi decisions which Nitish will find difficult toreverse The Indian Express February 24 2015 Available at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersmanjhis-legacy-on-nitishs-shoulders
10 The Telegraph (2015) Mahadalit hurdle stares at Nitish The TelegraphFebruary 9 2015 Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150209jspbiharstory_2267jspVZpdZhvzrIV
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies92
11 Srivastava Arun (2015) Bihar Nitishrsquos Search for Strategy to Uplift WomenAhead of Elections Mainstream Vol LIII No 18 April 25 2015 Available athttpwwwmainstreamweeklynetarticle5625html
m m m
Democracies82
Tabl
e 1
Achi
eved
Sam
ple
Size
of D
alit
com
mun
ities
in C
SDS
Surv
eys i
n Bi
har
2000
-201
4
Com
mun
ity20
0020
04 L
S20
05 F
eb20
05 O
ct20
09 L
S20
1020
14 L
SCh
amar
148
6349
674
133
315
101
Pasi
Pas
wan
140
4847
037
133
309
88M
ahad
alit
113
5823
842
9318
586
Non
-SC
1829
1022
6490
732
1580
4152
1256
Tota
l22
3011
9176
9488
519
3949
6115
31N
ote
Cha
mar
as C
ham
ar P
asi a
s Pas
i Ra
jwar
Dho
bi M
usah
ar B
huiy
a et
c as
Mah
adal
it a
ll ot
her n
on-S
C ca
stes
as N
on-S
C
Tabl
e 1a
Prop
ortio
n of
SC
com
mun
ities
in T
otal
Sam
ple
of C
SDS
Surv
eys
in B
ihar
200
0-14
Com
mun
ity20
0020
04 L
S20
05 F
eb20
05 O
ct20
09 L
S20
1020
14 L
SAv
erag
eCh
amar
66
53
64
84
69
64
66
67
Pasi
Pas
wan
63
40
61
42
68
63
57
56
Mah
adal
it5
14
93
14
84
83
75
64
6N
on-S
C82
085
884
382
681
583
782
083
1N
ote
Cha
mar
as C
ham
ar P
asi a
s Pas
i Ra
jwar
Dho
bi M
usah
ar B
huiy
a et
c as
Mah
adal
it a
ll ot
her n
on-S
Cca
stes
as N
on-S
C
83
Mahadalit Voting PatternsMahadalits the poorest among Dalits who were once behind the
RJD (44 percent voted for the party in the 2000 Assembly election) haveshifted allegiance towards the BJP and the JDU over the last fifteenyears (Table 2) There has in fact been a steady decline in support amongMahadalits for RJD with every passing election since 2000 As per CSDSdata 33 percent Mahadalits voted for the RJD in the 2004 Lok Sabhaelection 27 percent in the February 2005 Vidhan Sabha election 22percent in the October 2005 assembly poll 12 percent in 2009 Lok Sabhaelection and 8 percent in the 2010 assembly and 2014 Lok Sabhaelections These figures show a clear pattern of declining Mahadalitsupport for the RJD A party that once used to get nearly half theMahadalit votes now barely gets one in ten Mahadalit votes The RJDrsquosloss has been the JDU and BJPrsquos gain The two parties in alliance netted33 to 36 percent of the Mahadalit vote between 2004 and 2009 and furtherincreased the share to 40 percent in the 2010 elections Among the twothe JDU did better than the BJP in 2004 and February 2005 whereasthe BJP did better in October 2005 and 2009 It was in the 2010 Assemblyelections however that the JDU raced ahead of the BJP and outdid itsalliance partner by a large margin getting 30 percent of Mahadalitsupport to BJPrsquos 11 percent This dramatic rise in Mahadalit support forthe JDU should be seen in the context of Nitish Kumarrsquos concertedattempts to woo the community through the setting up of the MahadalitCommission during his first tenure Since then the support of Mahadalitsfor the JDU has remained firm with 34 percent of them voting for theparty in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections The BJP however has been thebiggest gainer with the partyrsquos Mahadalit support rising dramaticallybetween 2010 and 2014 The party has seen its Mahadalit supportincrease from just one in ten votes in 2010 to one in four in 2014 when itfought the elections on its own after its alliance with JDU came apartover Narendra Modirsquos candidature for the post of Prime Minister It mustbe emphasized however that the rise in the BJPrsquos Mahadalit support in2014 came mainly at the expense of smaller parties and not the JDUThe JDUrsquos Mahadalit base remained intact during the 2014 electiondespite the party having contested on its own With both the BJP andthe JDU set to be on opposite sides once again in the upcoming 2015
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies84
assembly elections how badly the Mahadalit vote splits between thetwo parties remains to be seen Assuming that many Mahadalits votedfor the BJP in 2014 due to the Modi factor the challenge for the partywould be to retain their support now that Modi would be less of a factorin a state election The challenge for the JDU on the other hand is toconvince the Mahadalits to stay with it now that Jitan Ram Manjhiwho it consciously cultivated as a Mahadalit leader is no longer withthe party It still has some prominent Mahadalit leaders among its foldand will also be looking to bank on its alliance with the RJD and theCongress to make up for any lost votes on account of Manjhirsquos defectionWhile the RJD and the Congress have not been doing well amongMahadalits they nonetheless have been getting about 11 to 13 percentof the Mahadalit vote in the last two elections which could well prove tobe significant for the JDU if things do down to the wire
85Ta
ble
2D
alit
Vote
in B
ihar
Mah
adal
it Vo
ting
Patt
ern
Part
y20
0020
04 L
S20
05 F
eb20
05 O
ct20
09 L
S20
1020
14 L
SBJ
P22
1015
1920
1126
LJP
NA
35
129
77
JDU
-23
2017
1630
34RJ
D44
3327
2212
88
Cong
3
32
43
53
BSP
-5
59
96
-O
th
3123
2617
3133
22N
ote
201
4 Alli
ance
s - B
JP-L
JP-R
LSP
RJD
-Con
gres
s-N
CP(R
LSP
vote
and
NCP
vot
e inc
lude
d in
Oth
the
y go
t les
s tha
n on
e per
cent
Mah
adal
it vo
te)
2010
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-LJP
2009
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-LJP
2005
Oct
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-Con
g-N
CP(N
CP v
ote i
nclu
ded
in O
th i
t got
less
than
one p
erce
nt M
ahad
alit
vote
)20
05 F
eb A
llian
ces -
BJP
-JD
U C
ong-
LJP
RJD
-CPI
-CPM
-NCP
(CPI
CPM
NCP
incl
uded
in O
th t
hey
got 2
per
cent
of M
ahad
alit
vote
)20
04 A
llian
ces -
BJP
-JD
U R
JD-C
ong-
LJP-
NCP
(NCP
vot
e inc
lude
d in
Oth
it g
ot le
ss th
an on
e per
cent
Mah
adal
it vo
te)
2000
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-S
amta
-JD
U-B
PP R
JD-C
PM-J
DS-
MCo
r-SJ
D (R
asht
riya
)(S
amta
BPP
vot
e amp C
PM J
DS-
MCo
r-SJD
R vo
te in
clud
ed in
Oth
the
y got
less
than
one p
erce
nt M
ahad
alit
vote
)N
A m
eans
not
app
licab
le
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies86
Chamar Voting PatternsLike the Mahadalits the Chamars too have over the last fifteen
years moved away from the RJD Congress and other smaller entitiestowards the BJP JDU and the BSP The BJP which in 2000 got 7percent or less than one in ten Chamar votes has made significantinroads into the Chamar vote base (Table 3) The party got nearly onein seven Chamar votes in the 2010 assembly polls and one in fiveChamar votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha election If we take into accountthe Chamar votes polled for BJPrsquos alliance partner the LJP in the 2014election then the Chamar vote figure for BJP alliance touches 34percent or one third Meanwhile the combined vote share of the JDURJD and the Congress among Chamars was not far behind in 2014 at30 percent Interestingly the largest proportion of Chamar votes inBihar has been going to the Bahujan Samaj Party or BSP for a longtime now Mayawatirsquos party has been getting between one-fourth andone-third of the Chamar votes The BSPrsquos high point was in 2009 whenit got 35 percent of the Chamar votes This should be seen as a rub offof Mayawatirsquos landslide assembly election victory in neighboring UttarPradesh in 2007 Although Chamar support for the BSP in Bihar dippedsomewhat in 2010 and 2014 the party continued to get the highestshare of the communityrsquos votes in the state In the 2014 Lok Sabhaelection for instance the BSP got 26 percent of the Chamar vote whichwas greater than the BJPrsquos share at 20 percent This is extremelysignificant as even amidst the so-called Modi wave more Chamars votedfor the BSP than the BJP With both the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress locked in a tight battle for Chamar votes as of 2014 theBSPrsquos substantial Chamar base (26 percent as of 2014) assumes greatimportance in the run up to the 2015 assembly elections This is becauseboth the alliances would be looking to make a dent into the BSPrsquos fairlylarge core base Mayawati may not be much of player in Biharrsquos politicsbut her fairly solid following among Chamars in the state makes heran important factor even if in a limited way A tactical or hiddenunderstanding with her party by either of the two alliances may wellprove to be a game changer in a close election
87
Table 3Dalit Vote in Bihar Chamar Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 7 7 5 5 7 15 20LJP NA 2 8 17 7 5 14JDU 3 20 5 9 19 16 17RJD 27 31 25 16 12 12 7Cong 11 11 3 3 5 4 6BSP 7 18 25 24 35 28 26Oth 45 11 29 26 15 20 10
Note2014 - RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth they got less than one percentChamar vote2005 Oct - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Chamarvote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 3 pct Chamar vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR got lt1 pctNA means not applicable
Pasi Voting PatternsThe Pasi community politically socially and economically the
strongest of all Dalit sub-castes of Bihar has stayed loyal to Ram VilasPaswan and their voting pattern over the years has been determined bywhich party Paswanrsquos LJP has been in alliance with In election afterelection Paswan has been successful in transferring the Pasi vote to theparty he has aligned with In 2004 when LJP was in alliance with theRJD and Congress 58 percent of the Pasis voted for the RJD (Table 4)In the February 2005 assembly election when Paswan tied up with theCongress 40 percent voted for the LJP and 20 percent for the Congresshigher than for any other party In October 2005 when Paswan contestedthe elections on his own nearly half the Pasi community voted for theLJP In 2009 when the LJP contested in alliance with the RJD 50 percent
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies88
of the Pasis voted for alliance with the RJD alone netting 34 percent oftheir overall vote In 2010 the LJP-RJD alliance secured 55 percent ofthe Pasi vote Finally in the 2014 Lok Sabha election when LJP tied upwith the BJP 41 percent of the Pasis voted for the BJP Clearly the Pasivote is the most predictable and it can therefore be safely concludedthat with Paswan once again contesting in an alliance with the BJP forthe 2015 assembly elections Pasis are almost certain to throw theirweight behind the BJP
Table 4Dalit Vote in Bihar Pasi Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 21 12 16 4 8 5 41LJP NA 12 40 47 16 24 19JDU 11 15 4 7 18 16 6RJD 28 58 12 16 34 31 7Cong 9 3 20 3 6 7 2BSP - - - 4 9 3 2Oth 31 - 8 19 9 14 18Note2014 ndash RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth RLSP got 5 percent Pasi voteNCP got one percent Pasi vote2005 Oct ndash NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Pasivote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 7 pct Pasi vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR 6NA means not applicable
ConclusionFor the last two decades or so elections in Bihar have been mainly
understood by political analysts in terms OBC and Upper caste votingpreferences which have been dissected threadbare and have dominatedthe analytical discourse Dalit voting preferences on the other hand have
89
not received similar detailed attention at least not as much as theyhave in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh However the upcoming 2015election is likely to force political analysts as well as political parties togo beyond this OBC and Upper caste-centric approach for Bihar as Dalitchoices could well play a decisive role There has been a reinvention ofDalit identity in the state over the last eight years Nitish Kumar wasthe one who created the Mahadalit category in the first place But inrecent times Jitan Ram Manjhi has tried to play the same card moreaggressively after being handpicked for the post of chief minister byNitish Kumar and later after being dislodged Some of his decisionsduring his tenure as the Chief Minister such as incorporating Paswansin the category of Mahadalit and increasing entitlements of Dalits wereaimed at cultivating his image as a Mahadalit leader Before ManjhiBihar had had two chief ministers belonging to the Dalit community -Bhola Paswan Shastri (1968-1972) and Ram Sundar Das (1979-1980)However while they had operated within a political structure dominatedby upper castes and OBCs Manjhi refused to play second fiddle to hisOBC boss Nitish Kumar With Manjhi now deciding to fight the electionswith the BJP questions have been raised whether this would bring anyswing of the Dalit votes in favour of the BJP Though Manjhi belongs toMusahar which is a Mahadalit caste his own caste has been a staunchvote base of the CPI(ML) in thier strongholds It remains to be seenwhether Manjhi is able to get pan-Mahadalit support and if the ordernon-Musahar non-Paswan Mahadalit castes also rally behind him Howthe BJPrsquos core support base the upper castes reacts to Manjhi alsoremains to be seen Manjhi after all had made some very controversialstatements against upper castes while he was chief minister2 Anotherinteresting aspect to watch out for in the 2015 assembly elections wouldbe the preferences of men and women among the Dalit community Thisis because CSDS data from the 2014 Lok Sabha election reveals thatthere was a clear gender gap with respect to Dalit voting Dalit men voted
2At a function in Bettiah on January 1 2015 Jitan Ram Manjhi had termedupper caste people as ldquoforeigners and descendants of Aryan racerdquo
The BJP had slammed him for stoking caste tension in the stateFor more see lsquoManjhi dubs upper caste people as foreignersrsquo The Hindu January
2 2015 Available at httpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesmanjhi-dubs-upper-caste-people-as-foreigners-bjp-slams-commentarticle6590538ece
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies90
for the BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance in much greater proportion than Dalitwomen - 46 percent to 39 percent (Table 5) Moreover while the gap interms of votes between the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress (ifwe add up their votes) among Dalit men was a whopping 20 percentagepoints among Dalit women it was a neck-and-neck battle as bothformations got around 40 percent votes each This differing voting patternin terms of gender was the most pronounced among Dalits compared toother caste groups such as the OBCs and upper castes among whom menand women voted more or less similarly Within Dalits the gender dividein voting was most noticeable among Chamars compared to other sub-castes With Jitan Ram Manjhi eyeing the Dalit vote and harping on Dalitunity this gender divide among Dalits could well be Nitish Kumarrsquos besthope to offset the Manjhi factor and the former JDU leaderrsquos attempt tocreate a unified Dalit vote Kumar may well succeed in retaining theadvantage JDU has among Dalit women vis a vis Dalit men consideringhe has been actively wooing the womenrsquos vote by introducing severalwelfare schemes for them during his tenure (Srivastava 2015)
Table 5Voting patterns of SC OBC and Upper Castes in
2014 LS election by Gender
Caste group by Gender 2014 Lok Sabha electionVote BJP+ Vote JDU+
SCMen 45 25Women 39 40OBCMen 31 54Women 30 53Upper casteMen 80 11Women 80 17Note BJP+ includes BJP LJP and RLSP JDU+ includes JDU RJD and CongressJDU contested independently in 2014 but since JDU RJD and Congress are fightingthe 2015 assembly elections together their vote shares for 2014 have been added here
91
References 1 The Hindu (2009) Non-inclusion of Paswans in Maha Dalit list angers Paswan
The Hindu November 19 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available athttpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesnoninclusion-of-paswans-in-maha-dalit-list-angers-paswanarticle51356ece
2 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi rush to please Paswan The Telegraph February15 2015 Report by Anand Raj Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150215jspfrontpagestory3478jsp VW_zrdLzrIU
3 Dasgupta Subhabrata (2015) Manjhirsquos lsquoMahadalitrsquo stunt An election gimmickBihar voters are too smart to buy saddahaqcom February 17 2015 Availableat httpswwwsaddahaqcompoliticsmanjhis mahadalitmovemanjhis-mahadalit-stunt-an-election-gimmick-bihar-voters-are-too-smart-to-buy
4 The Indian Express (2015) All Dalits now Mahadalits question is whorsquostheir leader The Indian Express February 16 2015 Report by Santosh SinghAvailable at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersall-dalits-now-mahadalits-question-is-whos-their-leadersthashl49 YeAhadpuf
5 The Hindu (2009) Nitish attempt to uplift lsquoMaha Dalitrsquo base The Hindu August1 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available at httpwwwthehinducomtodays-papertp-nationaltp-otherstatesnitish-attempt-to-uplift-maha-dalit-basearticle194636ece
6 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi foot in BJP camp The Telegraph June 12 2015Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150612jspfrontpagestory_25228jspVZzO7RvzrIU
7 Ahmed Soroor (2014) Dalit pull in Bihar politics Daily News and AnalysisOctober 7 2014 Available at httpwwwdnaindiacomanalysiscolumn-dalit-pull-in-bihar-politics-2023991
8 Jha Dhirendra (2015) How Bihar chief minister Manjhi revived Dalit politicsin the Hindi belt Scrollin January 11 2015 Available at httpscrollinarticle699711how-bihar-chief-minister-manjhi-revived-dalit-politics-in-the-hindi-belt
9 Singh Santosh (2015) 10 Manjhi decisions which Nitish will find difficult toreverse The Indian Express February 24 2015 Available at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersmanjhis-legacy-on-nitishs-shoulders
10 The Telegraph (2015) Mahadalit hurdle stares at Nitish The TelegraphFebruary 9 2015 Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150209jspbiharstory_2267jspVZpdZhvzrIV
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies92
11 Srivastava Arun (2015) Bihar Nitishrsquos Search for Strategy to Uplift WomenAhead of Elections Mainstream Vol LIII No 18 April 25 2015 Available athttpwwwmainstreamweeklynetarticle5625html
m m m
83
Mahadalit Voting PatternsMahadalits the poorest among Dalits who were once behind the
RJD (44 percent voted for the party in the 2000 Assembly election) haveshifted allegiance towards the BJP and the JDU over the last fifteenyears (Table 2) There has in fact been a steady decline in support amongMahadalits for RJD with every passing election since 2000 As per CSDSdata 33 percent Mahadalits voted for the RJD in the 2004 Lok Sabhaelection 27 percent in the February 2005 Vidhan Sabha election 22percent in the October 2005 assembly poll 12 percent in 2009 Lok Sabhaelection and 8 percent in the 2010 assembly and 2014 Lok Sabhaelections These figures show a clear pattern of declining Mahadalitsupport for the RJD A party that once used to get nearly half theMahadalit votes now barely gets one in ten Mahadalit votes The RJDrsquosloss has been the JDU and BJPrsquos gain The two parties in alliance netted33 to 36 percent of the Mahadalit vote between 2004 and 2009 and furtherincreased the share to 40 percent in the 2010 elections Among the twothe JDU did better than the BJP in 2004 and February 2005 whereasthe BJP did better in October 2005 and 2009 It was in the 2010 Assemblyelections however that the JDU raced ahead of the BJP and outdid itsalliance partner by a large margin getting 30 percent of Mahadalitsupport to BJPrsquos 11 percent This dramatic rise in Mahadalit support forthe JDU should be seen in the context of Nitish Kumarrsquos concertedattempts to woo the community through the setting up of the MahadalitCommission during his first tenure Since then the support of Mahadalitsfor the JDU has remained firm with 34 percent of them voting for theparty in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections The BJP however has been thebiggest gainer with the partyrsquos Mahadalit support rising dramaticallybetween 2010 and 2014 The party has seen its Mahadalit supportincrease from just one in ten votes in 2010 to one in four in 2014 when itfought the elections on its own after its alliance with JDU came apartover Narendra Modirsquos candidature for the post of Prime Minister It mustbe emphasized however that the rise in the BJPrsquos Mahadalit support in2014 came mainly at the expense of smaller parties and not the JDUThe JDUrsquos Mahadalit base remained intact during the 2014 electiondespite the party having contested on its own With both the BJP andthe JDU set to be on opposite sides once again in the upcoming 2015
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies84
assembly elections how badly the Mahadalit vote splits between thetwo parties remains to be seen Assuming that many Mahadalits votedfor the BJP in 2014 due to the Modi factor the challenge for the partywould be to retain their support now that Modi would be less of a factorin a state election The challenge for the JDU on the other hand is toconvince the Mahadalits to stay with it now that Jitan Ram Manjhiwho it consciously cultivated as a Mahadalit leader is no longer withthe party It still has some prominent Mahadalit leaders among its foldand will also be looking to bank on its alliance with the RJD and theCongress to make up for any lost votes on account of Manjhirsquos defectionWhile the RJD and the Congress have not been doing well amongMahadalits they nonetheless have been getting about 11 to 13 percentof the Mahadalit vote in the last two elections which could well prove tobe significant for the JDU if things do down to the wire
85Ta
ble
2D
alit
Vote
in B
ihar
Mah
adal
it Vo
ting
Patt
ern
Part
y20
0020
04 L
S20
05 F
eb20
05 O
ct20
09 L
S20
1020
14 L
SBJ
P22
1015
1920
1126
LJP
NA
35
129
77
JDU
-23
2017
1630
34RJ
D44
3327
2212
88
Cong
3
32
43
53
BSP
-5
59
96
-O
th
3123
2617
3133
22N
ote
201
4 Alli
ance
s - B
JP-L
JP-R
LSP
RJD
-Con
gres
s-N
CP(R
LSP
vote
and
NCP
vot
e inc
lude
d in
Oth
the
y go
t les
s tha
n on
e per
cent
Mah
adal
it vo
te)
2010
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-LJP
2009
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-LJP
2005
Oct
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-Con
g-N
CP(N
CP v
ote i
nclu
ded
in O
th i
t got
less
than
one p
erce
nt M
ahad
alit
vote
)20
05 F
eb A
llian
ces -
BJP
-JD
U C
ong-
LJP
RJD
-CPI
-CPM
-NCP
(CPI
CPM
NCP
incl
uded
in O
th t
hey
got 2
per
cent
of M
ahad
alit
vote
)20
04 A
llian
ces -
BJP
-JD
U R
JD-C
ong-
LJP-
NCP
(NCP
vot
e inc
lude
d in
Oth
it g
ot le
ss th
an on
e per
cent
Mah
adal
it vo
te)
2000
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-S
amta
-JD
U-B
PP R
JD-C
PM-J
DS-
MCo
r-SJ
D (R
asht
riya
)(S
amta
BPP
vot
e amp C
PM J
DS-
MCo
r-SJD
R vo
te in
clud
ed in
Oth
the
y got
less
than
one p
erce
nt M
ahad
alit
vote
)N
A m
eans
not
app
licab
le
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies86
Chamar Voting PatternsLike the Mahadalits the Chamars too have over the last fifteen
years moved away from the RJD Congress and other smaller entitiestowards the BJP JDU and the BSP The BJP which in 2000 got 7percent or less than one in ten Chamar votes has made significantinroads into the Chamar vote base (Table 3) The party got nearly onein seven Chamar votes in the 2010 assembly polls and one in fiveChamar votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha election If we take into accountthe Chamar votes polled for BJPrsquos alliance partner the LJP in the 2014election then the Chamar vote figure for BJP alliance touches 34percent or one third Meanwhile the combined vote share of the JDURJD and the Congress among Chamars was not far behind in 2014 at30 percent Interestingly the largest proportion of Chamar votes inBihar has been going to the Bahujan Samaj Party or BSP for a longtime now Mayawatirsquos party has been getting between one-fourth andone-third of the Chamar votes The BSPrsquos high point was in 2009 whenit got 35 percent of the Chamar votes This should be seen as a rub offof Mayawatirsquos landslide assembly election victory in neighboring UttarPradesh in 2007 Although Chamar support for the BSP in Bihar dippedsomewhat in 2010 and 2014 the party continued to get the highestshare of the communityrsquos votes in the state In the 2014 Lok Sabhaelection for instance the BSP got 26 percent of the Chamar vote whichwas greater than the BJPrsquos share at 20 percent This is extremelysignificant as even amidst the so-called Modi wave more Chamars votedfor the BSP than the BJP With both the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress locked in a tight battle for Chamar votes as of 2014 theBSPrsquos substantial Chamar base (26 percent as of 2014) assumes greatimportance in the run up to the 2015 assembly elections This is becauseboth the alliances would be looking to make a dent into the BSPrsquos fairlylarge core base Mayawati may not be much of player in Biharrsquos politicsbut her fairly solid following among Chamars in the state makes heran important factor even if in a limited way A tactical or hiddenunderstanding with her party by either of the two alliances may wellprove to be a game changer in a close election
87
Table 3Dalit Vote in Bihar Chamar Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 7 7 5 5 7 15 20LJP NA 2 8 17 7 5 14JDU 3 20 5 9 19 16 17RJD 27 31 25 16 12 12 7Cong 11 11 3 3 5 4 6BSP 7 18 25 24 35 28 26Oth 45 11 29 26 15 20 10
Note2014 - RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth they got less than one percentChamar vote2005 Oct - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Chamarvote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 3 pct Chamar vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR got lt1 pctNA means not applicable
Pasi Voting PatternsThe Pasi community politically socially and economically the
strongest of all Dalit sub-castes of Bihar has stayed loyal to Ram VilasPaswan and their voting pattern over the years has been determined bywhich party Paswanrsquos LJP has been in alliance with In election afterelection Paswan has been successful in transferring the Pasi vote to theparty he has aligned with In 2004 when LJP was in alliance with theRJD and Congress 58 percent of the Pasis voted for the RJD (Table 4)In the February 2005 assembly election when Paswan tied up with theCongress 40 percent voted for the LJP and 20 percent for the Congresshigher than for any other party In October 2005 when Paswan contestedthe elections on his own nearly half the Pasi community voted for theLJP In 2009 when the LJP contested in alliance with the RJD 50 percent
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies88
of the Pasis voted for alliance with the RJD alone netting 34 percent oftheir overall vote In 2010 the LJP-RJD alliance secured 55 percent ofthe Pasi vote Finally in the 2014 Lok Sabha election when LJP tied upwith the BJP 41 percent of the Pasis voted for the BJP Clearly the Pasivote is the most predictable and it can therefore be safely concludedthat with Paswan once again contesting in an alliance with the BJP forthe 2015 assembly elections Pasis are almost certain to throw theirweight behind the BJP
Table 4Dalit Vote in Bihar Pasi Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 21 12 16 4 8 5 41LJP NA 12 40 47 16 24 19JDU 11 15 4 7 18 16 6RJD 28 58 12 16 34 31 7Cong 9 3 20 3 6 7 2BSP - - - 4 9 3 2Oth 31 - 8 19 9 14 18Note2014 ndash RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth RLSP got 5 percent Pasi voteNCP got one percent Pasi vote2005 Oct ndash NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Pasivote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 7 pct Pasi vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR 6NA means not applicable
ConclusionFor the last two decades or so elections in Bihar have been mainly
understood by political analysts in terms OBC and Upper caste votingpreferences which have been dissected threadbare and have dominatedthe analytical discourse Dalit voting preferences on the other hand have
89
not received similar detailed attention at least not as much as theyhave in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh However the upcoming 2015election is likely to force political analysts as well as political parties togo beyond this OBC and Upper caste-centric approach for Bihar as Dalitchoices could well play a decisive role There has been a reinvention ofDalit identity in the state over the last eight years Nitish Kumar wasthe one who created the Mahadalit category in the first place But inrecent times Jitan Ram Manjhi has tried to play the same card moreaggressively after being handpicked for the post of chief minister byNitish Kumar and later after being dislodged Some of his decisionsduring his tenure as the Chief Minister such as incorporating Paswansin the category of Mahadalit and increasing entitlements of Dalits wereaimed at cultivating his image as a Mahadalit leader Before ManjhiBihar had had two chief ministers belonging to the Dalit community -Bhola Paswan Shastri (1968-1972) and Ram Sundar Das (1979-1980)However while they had operated within a political structure dominatedby upper castes and OBCs Manjhi refused to play second fiddle to hisOBC boss Nitish Kumar With Manjhi now deciding to fight the electionswith the BJP questions have been raised whether this would bring anyswing of the Dalit votes in favour of the BJP Though Manjhi belongs toMusahar which is a Mahadalit caste his own caste has been a staunchvote base of the CPI(ML) in thier strongholds It remains to be seenwhether Manjhi is able to get pan-Mahadalit support and if the ordernon-Musahar non-Paswan Mahadalit castes also rally behind him Howthe BJPrsquos core support base the upper castes reacts to Manjhi alsoremains to be seen Manjhi after all had made some very controversialstatements against upper castes while he was chief minister2 Anotherinteresting aspect to watch out for in the 2015 assembly elections wouldbe the preferences of men and women among the Dalit community Thisis because CSDS data from the 2014 Lok Sabha election reveals thatthere was a clear gender gap with respect to Dalit voting Dalit men voted
2At a function in Bettiah on January 1 2015 Jitan Ram Manjhi had termedupper caste people as ldquoforeigners and descendants of Aryan racerdquo
The BJP had slammed him for stoking caste tension in the stateFor more see lsquoManjhi dubs upper caste people as foreignersrsquo The Hindu January
2 2015 Available at httpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesmanjhi-dubs-upper-caste-people-as-foreigners-bjp-slams-commentarticle6590538ece
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies90
for the BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance in much greater proportion than Dalitwomen - 46 percent to 39 percent (Table 5) Moreover while the gap interms of votes between the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress (ifwe add up their votes) among Dalit men was a whopping 20 percentagepoints among Dalit women it was a neck-and-neck battle as bothformations got around 40 percent votes each This differing voting patternin terms of gender was the most pronounced among Dalits compared toother caste groups such as the OBCs and upper castes among whom menand women voted more or less similarly Within Dalits the gender dividein voting was most noticeable among Chamars compared to other sub-castes With Jitan Ram Manjhi eyeing the Dalit vote and harping on Dalitunity this gender divide among Dalits could well be Nitish Kumarrsquos besthope to offset the Manjhi factor and the former JDU leaderrsquos attempt tocreate a unified Dalit vote Kumar may well succeed in retaining theadvantage JDU has among Dalit women vis a vis Dalit men consideringhe has been actively wooing the womenrsquos vote by introducing severalwelfare schemes for them during his tenure (Srivastava 2015)
Table 5Voting patterns of SC OBC and Upper Castes in
2014 LS election by Gender
Caste group by Gender 2014 Lok Sabha electionVote BJP+ Vote JDU+
SCMen 45 25Women 39 40OBCMen 31 54Women 30 53Upper casteMen 80 11Women 80 17Note BJP+ includes BJP LJP and RLSP JDU+ includes JDU RJD and CongressJDU contested independently in 2014 but since JDU RJD and Congress are fightingthe 2015 assembly elections together their vote shares for 2014 have been added here
91
References 1 The Hindu (2009) Non-inclusion of Paswans in Maha Dalit list angers Paswan
The Hindu November 19 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available athttpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesnoninclusion-of-paswans-in-maha-dalit-list-angers-paswanarticle51356ece
2 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi rush to please Paswan The Telegraph February15 2015 Report by Anand Raj Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150215jspfrontpagestory3478jsp VW_zrdLzrIU
3 Dasgupta Subhabrata (2015) Manjhirsquos lsquoMahadalitrsquo stunt An election gimmickBihar voters are too smart to buy saddahaqcom February 17 2015 Availableat httpswwwsaddahaqcompoliticsmanjhis mahadalitmovemanjhis-mahadalit-stunt-an-election-gimmick-bihar-voters-are-too-smart-to-buy
4 The Indian Express (2015) All Dalits now Mahadalits question is whorsquostheir leader The Indian Express February 16 2015 Report by Santosh SinghAvailable at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersall-dalits-now-mahadalits-question-is-whos-their-leadersthashl49 YeAhadpuf
5 The Hindu (2009) Nitish attempt to uplift lsquoMaha Dalitrsquo base The Hindu August1 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available at httpwwwthehinducomtodays-papertp-nationaltp-otherstatesnitish-attempt-to-uplift-maha-dalit-basearticle194636ece
6 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi foot in BJP camp The Telegraph June 12 2015Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150612jspfrontpagestory_25228jspVZzO7RvzrIU
7 Ahmed Soroor (2014) Dalit pull in Bihar politics Daily News and AnalysisOctober 7 2014 Available at httpwwwdnaindiacomanalysiscolumn-dalit-pull-in-bihar-politics-2023991
8 Jha Dhirendra (2015) How Bihar chief minister Manjhi revived Dalit politicsin the Hindi belt Scrollin January 11 2015 Available at httpscrollinarticle699711how-bihar-chief-minister-manjhi-revived-dalit-politics-in-the-hindi-belt
9 Singh Santosh (2015) 10 Manjhi decisions which Nitish will find difficult toreverse The Indian Express February 24 2015 Available at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersmanjhis-legacy-on-nitishs-shoulders
10 The Telegraph (2015) Mahadalit hurdle stares at Nitish The TelegraphFebruary 9 2015 Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150209jspbiharstory_2267jspVZpdZhvzrIV
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies92
11 Srivastava Arun (2015) Bihar Nitishrsquos Search for Strategy to Uplift WomenAhead of Elections Mainstream Vol LIII No 18 April 25 2015 Available athttpwwwmainstreamweeklynetarticle5625html
m m m
Democracies84
assembly elections how badly the Mahadalit vote splits between thetwo parties remains to be seen Assuming that many Mahadalits votedfor the BJP in 2014 due to the Modi factor the challenge for the partywould be to retain their support now that Modi would be less of a factorin a state election The challenge for the JDU on the other hand is toconvince the Mahadalits to stay with it now that Jitan Ram Manjhiwho it consciously cultivated as a Mahadalit leader is no longer withthe party It still has some prominent Mahadalit leaders among its foldand will also be looking to bank on its alliance with the RJD and theCongress to make up for any lost votes on account of Manjhirsquos defectionWhile the RJD and the Congress have not been doing well amongMahadalits they nonetheless have been getting about 11 to 13 percentof the Mahadalit vote in the last two elections which could well prove tobe significant for the JDU if things do down to the wire
85Ta
ble
2D
alit
Vote
in B
ihar
Mah
adal
it Vo
ting
Patt
ern
Part
y20
0020
04 L
S20
05 F
eb20
05 O
ct20
09 L
S20
1020
14 L
SBJ
P22
1015
1920
1126
LJP
NA
35
129
77
JDU
-23
2017
1630
34RJ
D44
3327
2212
88
Cong
3
32
43
53
BSP
-5
59
96
-O
th
3123
2617
3133
22N
ote
201
4 Alli
ance
s - B
JP-L
JP-R
LSP
RJD
-Con
gres
s-N
CP(R
LSP
vote
and
NCP
vot
e inc
lude
d in
Oth
the
y go
t les
s tha
n on
e per
cent
Mah
adal
it vo
te)
2010
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-LJP
2009
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-LJP
2005
Oct
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-Con
g-N
CP(N
CP v
ote i
nclu
ded
in O
th i
t got
less
than
one p
erce
nt M
ahad
alit
vote
)20
05 F
eb A
llian
ces -
BJP
-JD
U C
ong-
LJP
RJD
-CPI
-CPM
-NCP
(CPI
CPM
NCP
incl
uded
in O
th t
hey
got 2
per
cent
of M
ahad
alit
vote
)20
04 A
llian
ces -
BJP
-JD
U R
JD-C
ong-
LJP-
NCP
(NCP
vot
e inc
lude
d in
Oth
it g
ot le
ss th
an on
e per
cent
Mah
adal
it vo
te)
2000
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-S
amta
-JD
U-B
PP R
JD-C
PM-J
DS-
MCo
r-SJ
D (R
asht
riya
)(S
amta
BPP
vot
e amp C
PM J
DS-
MCo
r-SJD
R vo
te in
clud
ed in
Oth
the
y got
less
than
one p
erce
nt M
ahad
alit
vote
)N
A m
eans
not
app
licab
le
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies86
Chamar Voting PatternsLike the Mahadalits the Chamars too have over the last fifteen
years moved away from the RJD Congress and other smaller entitiestowards the BJP JDU and the BSP The BJP which in 2000 got 7percent or less than one in ten Chamar votes has made significantinroads into the Chamar vote base (Table 3) The party got nearly onein seven Chamar votes in the 2010 assembly polls and one in fiveChamar votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha election If we take into accountthe Chamar votes polled for BJPrsquos alliance partner the LJP in the 2014election then the Chamar vote figure for BJP alliance touches 34percent or one third Meanwhile the combined vote share of the JDURJD and the Congress among Chamars was not far behind in 2014 at30 percent Interestingly the largest proportion of Chamar votes inBihar has been going to the Bahujan Samaj Party or BSP for a longtime now Mayawatirsquos party has been getting between one-fourth andone-third of the Chamar votes The BSPrsquos high point was in 2009 whenit got 35 percent of the Chamar votes This should be seen as a rub offof Mayawatirsquos landslide assembly election victory in neighboring UttarPradesh in 2007 Although Chamar support for the BSP in Bihar dippedsomewhat in 2010 and 2014 the party continued to get the highestshare of the communityrsquos votes in the state In the 2014 Lok Sabhaelection for instance the BSP got 26 percent of the Chamar vote whichwas greater than the BJPrsquos share at 20 percent This is extremelysignificant as even amidst the so-called Modi wave more Chamars votedfor the BSP than the BJP With both the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress locked in a tight battle for Chamar votes as of 2014 theBSPrsquos substantial Chamar base (26 percent as of 2014) assumes greatimportance in the run up to the 2015 assembly elections This is becauseboth the alliances would be looking to make a dent into the BSPrsquos fairlylarge core base Mayawati may not be much of player in Biharrsquos politicsbut her fairly solid following among Chamars in the state makes heran important factor even if in a limited way A tactical or hiddenunderstanding with her party by either of the two alliances may wellprove to be a game changer in a close election
87
Table 3Dalit Vote in Bihar Chamar Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 7 7 5 5 7 15 20LJP NA 2 8 17 7 5 14JDU 3 20 5 9 19 16 17RJD 27 31 25 16 12 12 7Cong 11 11 3 3 5 4 6BSP 7 18 25 24 35 28 26Oth 45 11 29 26 15 20 10
Note2014 - RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth they got less than one percentChamar vote2005 Oct - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Chamarvote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 3 pct Chamar vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR got lt1 pctNA means not applicable
Pasi Voting PatternsThe Pasi community politically socially and economically the
strongest of all Dalit sub-castes of Bihar has stayed loyal to Ram VilasPaswan and their voting pattern over the years has been determined bywhich party Paswanrsquos LJP has been in alliance with In election afterelection Paswan has been successful in transferring the Pasi vote to theparty he has aligned with In 2004 when LJP was in alliance with theRJD and Congress 58 percent of the Pasis voted for the RJD (Table 4)In the February 2005 assembly election when Paswan tied up with theCongress 40 percent voted for the LJP and 20 percent for the Congresshigher than for any other party In October 2005 when Paswan contestedthe elections on his own nearly half the Pasi community voted for theLJP In 2009 when the LJP contested in alliance with the RJD 50 percent
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies88
of the Pasis voted for alliance with the RJD alone netting 34 percent oftheir overall vote In 2010 the LJP-RJD alliance secured 55 percent ofthe Pasi vote Finally in the 2014 Lok Sabha election when LJP tied upwith the BJP 41 percent of the Pasis voted for the BJP Clearly the Pasivote is the most predictable and it can therefore be safely concludedthat with Paswan once again contesting in an alliance with the BJP forthe 2015 assembly elections Pasis are almost certain to throw theirweight behind the BJP
Table 4Dalit Vote in Bihar Pasi Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 21 12 16 4 8 5 41LJP NA 12 40 47 16 24 19JDU 11 15 4 7 18 16 6RJD 28 58 12 16 34 31 7Cong 9 3 20 3 6 7 2BSP - - - 4 9 3 2Oth 31 - 8 19 9 14 18Note2014 ndash RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth RLSP got 5 percent Pasi voteNCP got one percent Pasi vote2005 Oct ndash NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Pasivote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 7 pct Pasi vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR 6NA means not applicable
ConclusionFor the last two decades or so elections in Bihar have been mainly
understood by political analysts in terms OBC and Upper caste votingpreferences which have been dissected threadbare and have dominatedthe analytical discourse Dalit voting preferences on the other hand have
89
not received similar detailed attention at least not as much as theyhave in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh However the upcoming 2015election is likely to force political analysts as well as political parties togo beyond this OBC and Upper caste-centric approach for Bihar as Dalitchoices could well play a decisive role There has been a reinvention ofDalit identity in the state over the last eight years Nitish Kumar wasthe one who created the Mahadalit category in the first place But inrecent times Jitan Ram Manjhi has tried to play the same card moreaggressively after being handpicked for the post of chief minister byNitish Kumar and later after being dislodged Some of his decisionsduring his tenure as the Chief Minister such as incorporating Paswansin the category of Mahadalit and increasing entitlements of Dalits wereaimed at cultivating his image as a Mahadalit leader Before ManjhiBihar had had two chief ministers belonging to the Dalit community -Bhola Paswan Shastri (1968-1972) and Ram Sundar Das (1979-1980)However while they had operated within a political structure dominatedby upper castes and OBCs Manjhi refused to play second fiddle to hisOBC boss Nitish Kumar With Manjhi now deciding to fight the electionswith the BJP questions have been raised whether this would bring anyswing of the Dalit votes in favour of the BJP Though Manjhi belongs toMusahar which is a Mahadalit caste his own caste has been a staunchvote base of the CPI(ML) in thier strongholds It remains to be seenwhether Manjhi is able to get pan-Mahadalit support and if the ordernon-Musahar non-Paswan Mahadalit castes also rally behind him Howthe BJPrsquos core support base the upper castes reacts to Manjhi alsoremains to be seen Manjhi after all had made some very controversialstatements against upper castes while he was chief minister2 Anotherinteresting aspect to watch out for in the 2015 assembly elections wouldbe the preferences of men and women among the Dalit community Thisis because CSDS data from the 2014 Lok Sabha election reveals thatthere was a clear gender gap with respect to Dalit voting Dalit men voted
2At a function in Bettiah on January 1 2015 Jitan Ram Manjhi had termedupper caste people as ldquoforeigners and descendants of Aryan racerdquo
The BJP had slammed him for stoking caste tension in the stateFor more see lsquoManjhi dubs upper caste people as foreignersrsquo The Hindu January
2 2015 Available at httpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesmanjhi-dubs-upper-caste-people-as-foreigners-bjp-slams-commentarticle6590538ece
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies90
for the BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance in much greater proportion than Dalitwomen - 46 percent to 39 percent (Table 5) Moreover while the gap interms of votes between the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress (ifwe add up their votes) among Dalit men was a whopping 20 percentagepoints among Dalit women it was a neck-and-neck battle as bothformations got around 40 percent votes each This differing voting patternin terms of gender was the most pronounced among Dalits compared toother caste groups such as the OBCs and upper castes among whom menand women voted more or less similarly Within Dalits the gender dividein voting was most noticeable among Chamars compared to other sub-castes With Jitan Ram Manjhi eyeing the Dalit vote and harping on Dalitunity this gender divide among Dalits could well be Nitish Kumarrsquos besthope to offset the Manjhi factor and the former JDU leaderrsquos attempt tocreate a unified Dalit vote Kumar may well succeed in retaining theadvantage JDU has among Dalit women vis a vis Dalit men consideringhe has been actively wooing the womenrsquos vote by introducing severalwelfare schemes for them during his tenure (Srivastava 2015)
Table 5Voting patterns of SC OBC and Upper Castes in
2014 LS election by Gender
Caste group by Gender 2014 Lok Sabha electionVote BJP+ Vote JDU+
SCMen 45 25Women 39 40OBCMen 31 54Women 30 53Upper casteMen 80 11Women 80 17Note BJP+ includes BJP LJP and RLSP JDU+ includes JDU RJD and CongressJDU contested independently in 2014 but since JDU RJD and Congress are fightingthe 2015 assembly elections together their vote shares for 2014 have been added here
91
References 1 The Hindu (2009) Non-inclusion of Paswans in Maha Dalit list angers Paswan
The Hindu November 19 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available athttpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesnoninclusion-of-paswans-in-maha-dalit-list-angers-paswanarticle51356ece
2 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi rush to please Paswan The Telegraph February15 2015 Report by Anand Raj Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150215jspfrontpagestory3478jsp VW_zrdLzrIU
3 Dasgupta Subhabrata (2015) Manjhirsquos lsquoMahadalitrsquo stunt An election gimmickBihar voters are too smart to buy saddahaqcom February 17 2015 Availableat httpswwwsaddahaqcompoliticsmanjhis mahadalitmovemanjhis-mahadalit-stunt-an-election-gimmick-bihar-voters-are-too-smart-to-buy
4 The Indian Express (2015) All Dalits now Mahadalits question is whorsquostheir leader The Indian Express February 16 2015 Report by Santosh SinghAvailable at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersall-dalits-now-mahadalits-question-is-whos-their-leadersthashl49 YeAhadpuf
5 The Hindu (2009) Nitish attempt to uplift lsquoMaha Dalitrsquo base The Hindu August1 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available at httpwwwthehinducomtodays-papertp-nationaltp-otherstatesnitish-attempt-to-uplift-maha-dalit-basearticle194636ece
6 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi foot in BJP camp The Telegraph June 12 2015Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150612jspfrontpagestory_25228jspVZzO7RvzrIU
7 Ahmed Soroor (2014) Dalit pull in Bihar politics Daily News and AnalysisOctober 7 2014 Available at httpwwwdnaindiacomanalysiscolumn-dalit-pull-in-bihar-politics-2023991
8 Jha Dhirendra (2015) How Bihar chief minister Manjhi revived Dalit politicsin the Hindi belt Scrollin January 11 2015 Available at httpscrollinarticle699711how-bihar-chief-minister-manjhi-revived-dalit-politics-in-the-hindi-belt
9 Singh Santosh (2015) 10 Manjhi decisions which Nitish will find difficult toreverse The Indian Express February 24 2015 Available at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersmanjhis-legacy-on-nitishs-shoulders
10 The Telegraph (2015) Mahadalit hurdle stares at Nitish The TelegraphFebruary 9 2015 Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150209jspbiharstory_2267jspVZpdZhvzrIV
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies92
11 Srivastava Arun (2015) Bihar Nitishrsquos Search for Strategy to Uplift WomenAhead of Elections Mainstream Vol LIII No 18 April 25 2015 Available athttpwwwmainstreamweeklynetarticle5625html
m m m
85Ta
ble
2D
alit
Vote
in B
ihar
Mah
adal
it Vo
ting
Patt
ern
Part
y20
0020
04 L
S20
05 F
eb20
05 O
ct20
09 L
S20
1020
14 L
SBJ
P22
1015
1920
1126
LJP
NA
35
129
77
JDU
-23
2017
1630
34RJ
D44
3327
2212
88
Cong
3
32
43
53
BSP
-5
59
96
-O
th
3123
2617
3133
22N
ote
201
4 Alli
ance
s - B
JP-L
JP-R
LSP
RJD
-Con
gres
s-N
CP(R
LSP
vote
and
NCP
vot
e inc
lude
d in
Oth
the
y go
t les
s tha
n on
e per
cent
Mah
adal
it vo
te)
2010
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-LJP
2009
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-LJP
2005
Oct
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-J
DU
RJD
-Con
g-N
CP(N
CP v
ote i
nclu
ded
in O
th i
t got
less
than
one p
erce
nt M
ahad
alit
vote
)20
05 F
eb A
llian
ces -
BJP
-JD
U C
ong-
LJP
RJD
-CPI
-CPM
-NCP
(CPI
CPM
NCP
incl
uded
in O
th t
hey
got 2
per
cent
of M
ahad
alit
vote
)20
04 A
llian
ces -
BJP
-JD
U R
JD-C
ong-
LJP-
NCP
(NCP
vot
e inc
lude
d in
Oth
it g
ot le
ss th
an on
e per
cent
Mah
adal
it vo
te)
2000
Alli
ance
s - B
JP-S
amta
-JD
U-B
PP R
JD-C
PM-J
DS-
MCo
r-SJ
D (R
asht
riya
)(S
amta
BPP
vot
e amp C
PM J
DS-
MCo
r-SJD
R vo
te in
clud
ed in
Oth
the
y got
less
than
one p
erce
nt M
ahad
alit
vote
)N
A m
eans
not
app
licab
le
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies86
Chamar Voting PatternsLike the Mahadalits the Chamars too have over the last fifteen
years moved away from the RJD Congress and other smaller entitiestowards the BJP JDU and the BSP The BJP which in 2000 got 7percent or less than one in ten Chamar votes has made significantinroads into the Chamar vote base (Table 3) The party got nearly onein seven Chamar votes in the 2010 assembly polls and one in fiveChamar votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha election If we take into accountthe Chamar votes polled for BJPrsquos alliance partner the LJP in the 2014election then the Chamar vote figure for BJP alliance touches 34percent or one third Meanwhile the combined vote share of the JDURJD and the Congress among Chamars was not far behind in 2014 at30 percent Interestingly the largest proportion of Chamar votes inBihar has been going to the Bahujan Samaj Party or BSP for a longtime now Mayawatirsquos party has been getting between one-fourth andone-third of the Chamar votes The BSPrsquos high point was in 2009 whenit got 35 percent of the Chamar votes This should be seen as a rub offof Mayawatirsquos landslide assembly election victory in neighboring UttarPradesh in 2007 Although Chamar support for the BSP in Bihar dippedsomewhat in 2010 and 2014 the party continued to get the highestshare of the communityrsquos votes in the state In the 2014 Lok Sabhaelection for instance the BSP got 26 percent of the Chamar vote whichwas greater than the BJPrsquos share at 20 percent This is extremelysignificant as even amidst the so-called Modi wave more Chamars votedfor the BSP than the BJP With both the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress locked in a tight battle for Chamar votes as of 2014 theBSPrsquos substantial Chamar base (26 percent as of 2014) assumes greatimportance in the run up to the 2015 assembly elections This is becauseboth the alliances would be looking to make a dent into the BSPrsquos fairlylarge core base Mayawati may not be much of player in Biharrsquos politicsbut her fairly solid following among Chamars in the state makes heran important factor even if in a limited way A tactical or hiddenunderstanding with her party by either of the two alliances may wellprove to be a game changer in a close election
87
Table 3Dalit Vote in Bihar Chamar Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 7 7 5 5 7 15 20LJP NA 2 8 17 7 5 14JDU 3 20 5 9 19 16 17RJD 27 31 25 16 12 12 7Cong 11 11 3 3 5 4 6BSP 7 18 25 24 35 28 26Oth 45 11 29 26 15 20 10
Note2014 - RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth they got less than one percentChamar vote2005 Oct - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Chamarvote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 3 pct Chamar vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR got lt1 pctNA means not applicable
Pasi Voting PatternsThe Pasi community politically socially and economically the
strongest of all Dalit sub-castes of Bihar has stayed loyal to Ram VilasPaswan and their voting pattern over the years has been determined bywhich party Paswanrsquos LJP has been in alliance with In election afterelection Paswan has been successful in transferring the Pasi vote to theparty he has aligned with In 2004 when LJP was in alliance with theRJD and Congress 58 percent of the Pasis voted for the RJD (Table 4)In the February 2005 assembly election when Paswan tied up with theCongress 40 percent voted for the LJP and 20 percent for the Congresshigher than for any other party In October 2005 when Paswan contestedthe elections on his own nearly half the Pasi community voted for theLJP In 2009 when the LJP contested in alliance with the RJD 50 percent
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies88
of the Pasis voted for alliance with the RJD alone netting 34 percent oftheir overall vote In 2010 the LJP-RJD alliance secured 55 percent ofthe Pasi vote Finally in the 2014 Lok Sabha election when LJP tied upwith the BJP 41 percent of the Pasis voted for the BJP Clearly the Pasivote is the most predictable and it can therefore be safely concludedthat with Paswan once again contesting in an alliance with the BJP forthe 2015 assembly elections Pasis are almost certain to throw theirweight behind the BJP
Table 4Dalit Vote in Bihar Pasi Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 21 12 16 4 8 5 41LJP NA 12 40 47 16 24 19JDU 11 15 4 7 18 16 6RJD 28 58 12 16 34 31 7Cong 9 3 20 3 6 7 2BSP - - - 4 9 3 2Oth 31 - 8 19 9 14 18Note2014 ndash RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth RLSP got 5 percent Pasi voteNCP got one percent Pasi vote2005 Oct ndash NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Pasivote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 7 pct Pasi vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR 6NA means not applicable
ConclusionFor the last two decades or so elections in Bihar have been mainly
understood by political analysts in terms OBC and Upper caste votingpreferences which have been dissected threadbare and have dominatedthe analytical discourse Dalit voting preferences on the other hand have
89
not received similar detailed attention at least not as much as theyhave in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh However the upcoming 2015election is likely to force political analysts as well as political parties togo beyond this OBC and Upper caste-centric approach for Bihar as Dalitchoices could well play a decisive role There has been a reinvention ofDalit identity in the state over the last eight years Nitish Kumar wasthe one who created the Mahadalit category in the first place But inrecent times Jitan Ram Manjhi has tried to play the same card moreaggressively after being handpicked for the post of chief minister byNitish Kumar and later after being dislodged Some of his decisionsduring his tenure as the Chief Minister such as incorporating Paswansin the category of Mahadalit and increasing entitlements of Dalits wereaimed at cultivating his image as a Mahadalit leader Before ManjhiBihar had had two chief ministers belonging to the Dalit community -Bhola Paswan Shastri (1968-1972) and Ram Sundar Das (1979-1980)However while they had operated within a political structure dominatedby upper castes and OBCs Manjhi refused to play second fiddle to hisOBC boss Nitish Kumar With Manjhi now deciding to fight the electionswith the BJP questions have been raised whether this would bring anyswing of the Dalit votes in favour of the BJP Though Manjhi belongs toMusahar which is a Mahadalit caste his own caste has been a staunchvote base of the CPI(ML) in thier strongholds It remains to be seenwhether Manjhi is able to get pan-Mahadalit support and if the ordernon-Musahar non-Paswan Mahadalit castes also rally behind him Howthe BJPrsquos core support base the upper castes reacts to Manjhi alsoremains to be seen Manjhi after all had made some very controversialstatements against upper castes while he was chief minister2 Anotherinteresting aspect to watch out for in the 2015 assembly elections wouldbe the preferences of men and women among the Dalit community Thisis because CSDS data from the 2014 Lok Sabha election reveals thatthere was a clear gender gap with respect to Dalit voting Dalit men voted
2At a function in Bettiah on January 1 2015 Jitan Ram Manjhi had termedupper caste people as ldquoforeigners and descendants of Aryan racerdquo
The BJP had slammed him for stoking caste tension in the stateFor more see lsquoManjhi dubs upper caste people as foreignersrsquo The Hindu January
2 2015 Available at httpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesmanjhi-dubs-upper-caste-people-as-foreigners-bjp-slams-commentarticle6590538ece
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies90
for the BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance in much greater proportion than Dalitwomen - 46 percent to 39 percent (Table 5) Moreover while the gap interms of votes between the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress (ifwe add up their votes) among Dalit men was a whopping 20 percentagepoints among Dalit women it was a neck-and-neck battle as bothformations got around 40 percent votes each This differing voting patternin terms of gender was the most pronounced among Dalits compared toother caste groups such as the OBCs and upper castes among whom menand women voted more or less similarly Within Dalits the gender dividein voting was most noticeable among Chamars compared to other sub-castes With Jitan Ram Manjhi eyeing the Dalit vote and harping on Dalitunity this gender divide among Dalits could well be Nitish Kumarrsquos besthope to offset the Manjhi factor and the former JDU leaderrsquos attempt tocreate a unified Dalit vote Kumar may well succeed in retaining theadvantage JDU has among Dalit women vis a vis Dalit men consideringhe has been actively wooing the womenrsquos vote by introducing severalwelfare schemes for them during his tenure (Srivastava 2015)
Table 5Voting patterns of SC OBC and Upper Castes in
2014 LS election by Gender
Caste group by Gender 2014 Lok Sabha electionVote BJP+ Vote JDU+
SCMen 45 25Women 39 40OBCMen 31 54Women 30 53Upper casteMen 80 11Women 80 17Note BJP+ includes BJP LJP and RLSP JDU+ includes JDU RJD and CongressJDU contested independently in 2014 but since JDU RJD and Congress are fightingthe 2015 assembly elections together their vote shares for 2014 have been added here
91
References 1 The Hindu (2009) Non-inclusion of Paswans in Maha Dalit list angers Paswan
The Hindu November 19 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available athttpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesnoninclusion-of-paswans-in-maha-dalit-list-angers-paswanarticle51356ece
2 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi rush to please Paswan The Telegraph February15 2015 Report by Anand Raj Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150215jspfrontpagestory3478jsp VW_zrdLzrIU
3 Dasgupta Subhabrata (2015) Manjhirsquos lsquoMahadalitrsquo stunt An election gimmickBihar voters are too smart to buy saddahaqcom February 17 2015 Availableat httpswwwsaddahaqcompoliticsmanjhis mahadalitmovemanjhis-mahadalit-stunt-an-election-gimmick-bihar-voters-are-too-smart-to-buy
4 The Indian Express (2015) All Dalits now Mahadalits question is whorsquostheir leader The Indian Express February 16 2015 Report by Santosh SinghAvailable at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersall-dalits-now-mahadalits-question-is-whos-their-leadersthashl49 YeAhadpuf
5 The Hindu (2009) Nitish attempt to uplift lsquoMaha Dalitrsquo base The Hindu August1 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available at httpwwwthehinducomtodays-papertp-nationaltp-otherstatesnitish-attempt-to-uplift-maha-dalit-basearticle194636ece
6 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi foot in BJP camp The Telegraph June 12 2015Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150612jspfrontpagestory_25228jspVZzO7RvzrIU
7 Ahmed Soroor (2014) Dalit pull in Bihar politics Daily News and AnalysisOctober 7 2014 Available at httpwwwdnaindiacomanalysiscolumn-dalit-pull-in-bihar-politics-2023991
8 Jha Dhirendra (2015) How Bihar chief minister Manjhi revived Dalit politicsin the Hindi belt Scrollin January 11 2015 Available at httpscrollinarticle699711how-bihar-chief-minister-manjhi-revived-dalit-politics-in-the-hindi-belt
9 Singh Santosh (2015) 10 Manjhi decisions which Nitish will find difficult toreverse The Indian Express February 24 2015 Available at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersmanjhis-legacy-on-nitishs-shoulders
10 The Telegraph (2015) Mahadalit hurdle stares at Nitish The TelegraphFebruary 9 2015 Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150209jspbiharstory_2267jspVZpdZhvzrIV
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies92
11 Srivastava Arun (2015) Bihar Nitishrsquos Search for Strategy to Uplift WomenAhead of Elections Mainstream Vol LIII No 18 April 25 2015 Available athttpwwwmainstreamweeklynetarticle5625html
m m m
Democracies86
Chamar Voting PatternsLike the Mahadalits the Chamars too have over the last fifteen
years moved away from the RJD Congress and other smaller entitiestowards the BJP JDU and the BSP The BJP which in 2000 got 7percent or less than one in ten Chamar votes has made significantinroads into the Chamar vote base (Table 3) The party got nearly onein seven Chamar votes in the 2010 assembly polls and one in fiveChamar votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha election If we take into accountthe Chamar votes polled for BJPrsquos alliance partner the LJP in the 2014election then the Chamar vote figure for BJP alliance touches 34percent or one third Meanwhile the combined vote share of the JDURJD and the Congress among Chamars was not far behind in 2014 at30 percent Interestingly the largest proportion of Chamar votes inBihar has been going to the Bahujan Samaj Party or BSP for a longtime now Mayawatirsquos party has been getting between one-fourth andone-third of the Chamar votes The BSPrsquos high point was in 2009 whenit got 35 percent of the Chamar votes This should be seen as a rub offof Mayawatirsquos landslide assembly election victory in neighboring UttarPradesh in 2007 Although Chamar support for the BSP in Bihar dippedsomewhat in 2010 and 2014 the party continued to get the highestshare of the communityrsquos votes in the state In the 2014 Lok Sabhaelection for instance the BSP got 26 percent of the Chamar vote whichwas greater than the BJPrsquos share at 20 percent This is extremelysignificant as even amidst the so-called Modi wave more Chamars votedfor the BSP than the BJP With both the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress locked in a tight battle for Chamar votes as of 2014 theBSPrsquos substantial Chamar base (26 percent as of 2014) assumes greatimportance in the run up to the 2015 assembly elections This is becauseboth the alliances would be looking to make a dent into the BSPrsquos fairlylarge core base Mayawati may not be much of player in Biharrsquos politicsbut her fairly solid following among Chamars in the state makes heran important factor even if in a limited way A tactical or hiddenunderstanding with her party by either of the two alliances may wellprove to be a game changer in a close election
87
Table 3Dalit Vote in Bihar Chamar Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 7 7 5 5 7 15 20LJP NA 2 8 17 7 5 14JDU 3 20 5 9 19 16 17RJD 27 31 25 16 12 12 7Cong 11 11 3 3 5 4 6BSP 7 18 25 24 35 28 26Oth 45 11 29 26 15 20 10
Note2014 - RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth they got less than one percentChamar vote2005 Oct - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Chamarvote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 3 pct Chamar vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR got lt1 pctNA means not applicable
Pasi Voting PatternsThe Pasi community politically socially and economically the
strongest of all Dalit sub-castes of Bihar has stayed loyal to Ram VilasPaswan and their voting pattern over the years has been determined bywhich party Paswanrsquos LJP has been in alliance with In election afterelection Paswan has been successful in transferring the Pasi vote to theparty he has aligned with In 2004 when LJP was in alliance with theRJD and Congress 58 percent of the Pasis voted for the RJD (Table 4)In the February 2005 assembly election when Paswan tied up with theCongress 40 percent voted for the LJP and 20 percent for the Congresshigher than for any other party In October 2005 when Paswan contestedthe elections on his own nearly half the Pasi community voted for theLJP In 2009 when the LJP contested in alliance with the RJD 50 percent
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies88
of the Pasis voted for alliance with the RJD alone netting 34 percent oftheir overall vote In 2010 the LJP-RJD alliance secured 55 percent ofthe Pasi vote Finally in the 2014 Lok Sabha election when LJP tied upwith the BJP 41 percent of the Pasis voted for the BJP Clearly the Pasivote is the most predictable and it can therefore be safely concludedthat with Paswan once again contesting in an alliance with the BJP forthe 2015 assembly elections Pasis are almost certain to throw theirweight behind the BJP
Table 4Dalit Vote in Bihar Pasi Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 21 12 16 4 8 5 41LJP NA 12 40 47 16 24 19JDU 11 15 4 7 18 16 6RJD 28 58 12 16 34 31 7Cong 9 3 20 3 6 7 2BSP - - - 4 9 3 2Oth 31 - 8 19 9 14 18Note2014 ndash RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth RLSP got 5 percent Pasi voteNCP got one percent Pasi vote2005 Oct ndash NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Pasivote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 7 pct Pasi vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR 6NA means not applicable
ConclusionFor the last two decades or so elections in Bihar have been mainly
understood by political analysts in terms OBC and Upper caste votingpreferences which have been dissected threadbare and have dominatedthe analytical discourse Dalit voting preferences on the other hand have
89
not received similar detailed attention at least not as much as theyhave in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh However the upcoming 2015election is likely to force political analysts as well as political parties togo beyond this OBC and Upper caste-centric approach for Bihar as Dalitchoices could well play a decisive role There has been a reinvention ofDalit identity in the state over the last eight years Nitish Kumar wasthe one who created the Mahadalit category in the first place But inrecent times Jitan Ram Manjhi has tried to play the same card moreaggressively after being handpicked for the post of chief minister byNitish Kumar and later after being dislodged Some of his decisionsduring his tenure as the Chief Minister such as incorporating Paswansin the category of Mahadalit and increasing entitlements of Dalits wereaimed at cultivating his image as a Mahadalit leader Before ManjhiBihar had had two chief ministers belonging to the Dalit community -Bhola Paswan Shastri (1968-1972) and Ram Sundar Das (1979-1980)However while they had operated within a political structure dominatedby upper castes and OBCs Manjhi refused to play second fiddle to hisOBC boss Nitish Kumar With Manjhi now deciding to fight the electionswith the BJP questions have been raised whether this would bring anyswing of the Dalit votes in favour of the BJP Though Manjhi belongs toMusahar which is a Mahadalit caste his own caste has been a staunchvote base of the CPI(ML) in thier strongholds It remains to be seenwhether Manjhi is able to get pan-Mahadalit support and if the ordernon-Musahar non-Paswan Mahadalit castes also rally behind him Howthe BJPrsquos core support base the upper castes reacts to Manjhi alsoremains to be seen Manjhi after all had made some very controversialstatements against upper castes while he was chief minister2 Anotherinteresting aspect to watch out for in the 2015 assembly elections wouldbe the preferences of men and women among the Dalit community Thisis because CSDS data from the 2014 Lok Sabha election reveals thatthere was a clear gender gap with respect to Dalit voting Dalit men voted
2At a function in Bettiah on January 1 2015 Jitan Ram Manjhi had termedupper caste people as ldquoforeigners and descendants of Aryan racerdquo
The BJP had slammed him for stoking caste tension in the stateFor more see lsquoManjhi dubs upper caste people as foreignersrsquo The Hindu January
2 2015 Available at httpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesmanjhi-dubs-upper-caste-people-as-foreigners-bjp-slams-commentarticle6590538ece
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies90
for the BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance in much greater proportion than Dalitwomen - 46 percent to 39 percent (Table 5) Moreover while the gap interms of votes between the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress (ifwe add up their votes) among Dalit men was a whopping 20 percentagepoints among Dalit women it was a neck-and-neck battle as bothformations got around 40 percent votes each This differing voting patternin terms of gender was the most pronounced among Dalits compared toother caste groups such as the OBCs and upper castes among whom menand women voted more or less similarly Within Dalits the gender dividein voting was most noticeable among Chamars compared to other sub-castes With Jitan Ram Manjhi eyeing the Dalit vote and harping on Dalitunity this gender divide among Dalits could well be Nitish Kumarrsquos besthope to offset the Manjhi factor and the former JDU leaderrsquos attempt tocreate a unified Dalit vote Kumar may well succeed in retaining theadvantage JDU has among Dalit women vis a vis Dalit men consideringhe has been actively wooing the womenrsquos vote by introducing severalwelfare schemes for them during his tenure (Srivastava 2015)
Table 5Voting patterns of SC OBC and Upper Castes in
2014 LS election by Gender
Caste group by Gender 2014 Lok Sabha electionVote BJP+ Vote JDU+
SCMen 45 25Women 39 40OBCMen 31 54Women 30 53Upper casteMen 80 11Women 80 17Note BJP+ includes BJP LJP and RLSP JDU+ includes JDU RJD and CongressJDU contested independently in 2014 but since JDU RJD and Congress are fightingthe 2015 assembly elections together their vote shares for 2014 have been added here
91
References 1 The Hindu (2009) Non-inclusion of Paswans in Maha Dalit list angers Paswan
The Hindu November 19 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available athttpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesnoninclusion-of-paswans-in-maha-dalit-list-angers-paswanarticle51356ece
2 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi rush to please Paswan The Telegraph February15 2015 Report by Anand Raj Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150215jspfrontpagestory3478jsp VW_zrdLzrIU
3 Dasgupta Subhabrata (2015) Manjhirsquos lsquoMahadalitrsquo stunt An election gimmickBihar voters are too smart to buy saddahaqcom February 17 2015 Availableat httpswwwsaddahaqcompoliticsmanjhis mahadalitmovemanjhis-mahadalit-stunt-an-election-gimmick-bihar-voters-are-too-smart-to-buy
4 The Indian Express (2015) All Dalits now Mahadalits question is whorsquostheir leader The Indian Express February 16 2015 Report by Santosh SinghAvailable at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersall-dalits-now-mahadalits-question-is-whos-their-leadersthashl49 YeAhadpuf
5 The Hindu (2009) Nitish attempt to uplift lsquoMaha Dalitrsquo base The Hindu August1 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available at httpwwwthehinducomtodays-papertp-nationaltp-otherstatesnitish-attempt-to-uplift-maha-dalit-basearticle194636ece
6 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi foot in BJP camp The Telegraph June 12 2015Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150612jspfrontpagestory_25228jspVZzO7RvzrIU
7 Ahmed Soroor (2014) Dalit pull in Bihar politics Daily News and AnalysisOctober 7 2014 Available at httpwwwdnaindiacomanalysiscolumn-dalit-pull-in-bihar-politics-2023991
8 Jha Dhirendra (2015) How Bihar chief minister Manjhi revived Dalit politicsin the Hindi belt Scrollin January 11 2015 Available at httpscrollinarticle699711how-bihar-chief-minister-manjhi-revived-dalit-politics-in-the-hindi-belt
9 Singh Santosh (2015) 10 Manjhi decisions which Nitish will find difficult toreverse The Indian Express February 24 2015 Available at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersmanjhis-legacy-on-nitishs-shoulders
10 The Telegraph (2015) Mahadalit hurdle stares at Nitish The TelegraphFebruary 9 2015 Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150209jspbiharstory_2267jspVZpdZhvzrIV
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies92
11 Srivastava Arun (2015) Bihar Nitishrsquos Search for Strategy to Uplift WomenAhead of Elections Mainstream Vol LIII No 18 April 25 2015 Available athttpwwwmainstreamweeklynetarticle5625html
m m m
87
Table 3Dalit Vote in Bihar Chamar Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 7 7 5 5 7 15 20LJP NA 2 8 17 7 5 14JDU 3 20 5 9 19 16 17RJD 27 31 25 16 12 12 7Cong 11 11 3 3 5 4 6BSP 7 18 25 24 35 28 26Oth 45 11 29 26 15 20 10
Note2014 - RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth they got less than one percentChamar vote2005 Oct - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Chamarvote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Chamar vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 3 pct Chamar vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR got lt1 pctNA means not applicable
Pasi Voting PatternsThe Pasi community politically socially and economically the
strongest of all Dalit sub-castes of Bihar has stayed loyal to Ram VilasPaswan and their voting pattern over the years has been determined bywhich party Paswanrsquos LJP has been in alliance with In election afterelection Paswan has been successful in transferring the Pasi vote to theparty he has aligned with In 2004 when LJP was in alliance with theRJD and Congress 58 percent of the Pasis voted for the RJD (Table 4)In the February 2005 assembly election when Paswan tied up with theCongress 40 percent voted for the LJP and 20 percent for the Congresshigher than for any other party In October 2005 when Paswan contestedthe elections on his own nearly half the Pasi community voted for theLJP In 2009 when the LJP contested in alliance with the RJD 50 percent
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies88
of the Pasis voted for alliance with the RJD alone netting 34 percent oftheir overall vote In 2010 the LJP-RJD alliance secured 55 percent ofthe Pasi vote Finally in the 2014 Lok Sabha election when LJP tied upwith the BJP 41 percent of the Pasis voted for the BJP Clearly the Pasivote is the most predictable and it can therefore be safely concludedthat with Paswan once again contesting in an alliance with the BJP forthe 2015 assembly elections Pasis are almost certain to throw theirweight behind the BJP
Table 4Dalit Vote in Bihar Pasi Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 21 12 16 4 8 5 41LJP NA 12 40 47 16 24 19JDU 11 15 4 7 18 16 6RJD 28 58 12 16 34 31 7Cong 9 3 20 3 6 7 2BSP - - - 4 9 3 2Oth 31 - 8 19 9 14 18Note2014 ndash RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth RLSP got 5 percent Pasi voteNCP got one percent Pasi vote2005 Oct ndash NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Pasivote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 7 pct Pasi vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR 6NA means not applicable
ConclusionFor the last two decades or so elections in Bihar have been mainly
understood by political analysts in terms OBC and Upper caste votingpreferences which have been dissected threadbare and have dominatedthe analytical discourse Dalit voting preferences on the other hand have
89
not received similar detailed attention at least not as much as theyhave in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh However the upcoming 2015election is likely to force political analysts as well as political parties togo beyond this OBC and Upper caste-centric approach for Bihar as Dalitchoices could well play a decisive role There has been a reinvention ofDalit identity in the state over the last eight years Nitish Kumar wasthe one who created the Mahadalit category in the first place But inrecent times Jitan Ram Manjhi has tried to play the same card moreaggressively after being handpicked for the post of chief minister byNitish Kumar and later after being dislodged Some of his decisionsduring his tenure as the Chief Minister such as incorporating Paswansin the category of Mahadalit and increasing entitlements of Dalits wereaimed at cultivating his image as a Mahadalit leader Before ManjhiBihar had had two chief ministers belonging to the Dalit community -Bhola Paswan Shastri (1968-1972) and Ram Sundar Das (1979-1980)However while they had operated within a political structure dominatedby upper castes and OBCs Manjhi refused to play second fiddle to hisOBC boss Nitish Kumar With Manjhi now deciding to fight the electionswith the BJP questions have been raised whether this would bring anyswing of the Dalit votes in favour of the BJP Though Manjhi belongs toMusahar which is a Mahadalit caste his own caste has been a staunchvote base of the CPI(ML) in thier strongholds It remains to be seenwhether Manjhi is able to get pan-Mahadalit support and if the ordernon-Musahar non-Paswan Mahadalit castes also rally behind him Howthe BJPrsquos core support base the upper castes reacts to Manjhi alsoremains to be seen Manjhi after all had made some very controversialstatements against upper castes while he was chief minister2 Anotherinteresting aspect to watch out for in the 2015 assembly elections wouldbe the preferences of men and women among the Dalit community Thisis because CSDS data from the 2014 Lok Sabha election reveals thatthere was a clear gender gap with respect to Dalit voting Dalit men voted
2At a function in Bettiah on January 1 2015 Jitan Ram Manjhi had termedupper caste people as ldquoforeigners and descendants of Aryan racerdquo
The BJP had slammed him for stoking caste tension in the stateFor more see lsquoManjhi dubs upper caste people as foreignersrsquo The Hindu January
2 2015 Available at httpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesmanjhi-dubs-upper-caste-people-as-foreigners-bjp-slams-commentarticle6590538ece
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies90
for the BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance in much greater proportion than Dalitwomen - 46 percent to 39 percent (Table 5) Moreover while the gap interms of votes between the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress (ifwe add up their votes) among Dalit men was a whopping 20 percentagepoints among Dalit women it was a neck-and-neck battle as bothformations got around 40 percent votes each This differing voting patternin terms of gender was the most pronounced among Dalits compared toother caste groups such as the OBCs and upper castes among whom menand women voted more or less similarly Within Dalits the gender dividein voting was most noticeable among Chamars compared to other sub-castes With Jitan Ram Manjhi eyeing the Dalit vote and harping on Dalitunity this gender divide among Dalits could well be Nitish Kumarrsquos besthope to offset the Manjhi factor and the former JDU leaderrsquos attempt tocreate a unified Dalit vote Kumar may well succeed in retaining theadvantage JDU has among Dalit women vis a vis Dalit men consideringhe has been actively wooing the womenrsquos vote by introducing severalwelfare schemes for them during his tenure (Srivastava 2015)
Table 5Voting patterns of SC OBC and Upper Castes in
2014 LS election by Gender
Caste group by Gender 2014 Lok Sabha electionVote BJP+ Vote JDU+
SCMen 45 25Women 39 40OBCMen 31 54Women 30 53Upper casteMen 80 11Women 80 17Note BJP+ includes BJP LJP and RLSP JDU+ includes JDU RJD and CongressJDU contested independently in 2014 but since JDU RJD and Congress are fightingthe 2015 assembly elections together their vote shares for 2014 have been added here
91
References 1 The Hindu (2009) Non-inclusion of Paswans in Maha Dalit list angers Paswan
The Hindu November 19 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available athttpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesnoninclusion-of-paswans-in-maha-dalit-list-angers-paswanarticle51356ece
2 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi rush to please Paswan The Telegraph February15 2015 Report by Anand Raj Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150215jspfrontpagestory3478jsp VW_zrdLzrIU
3 Dasgupta Subhabrata (2015) Manjhirsquos lsquoMahadalitrsquo stunt An election gimmickBihar voters are too smart to buy saddahaqcom February 17 2015 Availableat httpswwwsaddahaqcompoliticsmanjhis mahadalitmovemanjhis-mahadalit-stunt-an-election-gimmick-bihar-voters-are-too-smart-to-buy
4 The Indian Express (2015) All Dalits now Mahadalits question is whorsquostheir leader The Indian Express February 16 2015 Report by Santosh SinghAvailable at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersall-dalits-now-mahadalits-question-is-whos-their-leadersthashl49 YeAhadpuf
5 The Hindu (2009) Nitish attempt to uplift lsquoMaha Dalitrsquo base The Hindu August1 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available at httpwwwthehinducomtodays-papertp-nationaltp-otherstatesnitish-attempt-to-uplift-maha-dalit-basearticle194636ece
6 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi foot in BJP camp The Telegraph June 12 2015Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150612jspfrontpagestory_25228jspVZzO7RvzrIU
7 Ahmed Soroor (2014) Dalit pull in Bihar politics Daily News and AnalysisOctober 7 2014 Available at httpwwwdnaindiacomanalysiscolumn-dalit-pull-in-bihar-politics-2023991
8 Jha Dhirendra (2015) How Bihar chief minister Manjhi revived Dalit politicsin the Hindi belt Scrollin January 11 2015 Available at httpscrollinarticle699711how-bihar-chief-minister-manjhi-revived-dalit-politics-in-the-hindi-belt
9 Singh Santosh (2015) 10 Manjhi decisions which Nitish will find difficult toreverse The Indian Express February 24 2015 Available at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersmanjhis-legacy-on-nitishs-shoulders
10 The Telegraph (2015) Mahadalit hurdle stares at Nitish The TelegraphFebruary 9 2015 Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150209jspbiharstory_2267jspVZpdZhvzrIV
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies92
11 Srivastava Arun (2015) Bihar Nitishrsquos Search for Strategy to Uplift WomenAhead of Elections Mainstream Vol LIII No 18 April 25 2015 Available athttpwwwmainstreamweeklynetarticle5625html
m m m
Democracies88
of the Pasis voted for alliance with the RJD alone netting 34 percent oftheir overall vote In 2010 the LJP-RJD alliance secured 55 percent ofthe Pasi vote Finally in the 2014 Lok Sabha election when LJP tied upwith the BJP 41 percent of the Pasis voted for the BJP Clearly the Pasivote is the most predictable and it can therefore be safely concludedthat with Paswan once again contesting in an alliance with the BJP forthe 2015 assembly elections Pasis are almost certain to throw theirweight behind the BJP
Table 4Dalit Vote in Bihar Pasi Voting Pattern
Party 2000 2004 2005 2005 2009 2010 2014LS Feb Oct LS LS
BJP 21 12 16 4 8 5 41LJP NA 12 40 47 16 24 19JDU 11 15 4 7 18 16 6RJD 28 58 12 16 34 31 7Cong 9 3 20 3 6 7 2BSP - - - 4 9 3 2Oth 31 - 8 19 9 14 18Note2014 ndash RLSP vote and NCP vote included in Oth RLSP got 5 percent Pasi voteNCP got one percent Pasi vote2005 Oct ndash NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2005 Feb - CPI CPM NCP included in Oth they got less than one percent Pasivote2004 - NCP vote included in Oth it got less than one percent Pasi vote2000 - Samta BPP vote amp CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR vote included in Oth SamtaBPP got 7 pct Pasi vote CPM JDS-MCor-SJDR 6NA means not applicable
ConclusionFor the last two decades or so elections in Bihar have been mainly
understood by political analysts in terms OBC and Upper caste votingpreferences which have been dissected threadbare and have dominatedthe analytical discourse Dalit voting preferences on the other hand have
89
not received similar detailed attention at least not as much as theyhave in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh However the upcoming 2015election is likely to force political analysts as well as political parties togo beyond this OBC and Upper caste-centric approach for Bihar as Dalitchoices could well play a decisive role There has been a reinvention ofDalit identity in the state over the last eight years Nitish Kumar wasthe one who created the Mahadalit category in the first place But inrecent times Jitan Ram Manjhi has tried to play the same card moreaggressively after being handpicked for the post of chief minister byNitish Kumar and later after being dislodged Some of his decisionsduring his tenure as the Chief Minister such as incorporating Paswansin the category of Mahadalit and increasing entitlements of Dalits wereaimed at cultivating his image as a Mahadalit leader Before ManjhiBihar had had two chief ministers belonging to the Dalit community -Bhola Paswan Shastri (1968-1972) and Ram Sundar Das (1979-1980)However while they had operated within a political structure dominatedby upper castes and OBCs Manjhi refused to play second fiddle to hisOBC boss Nitish Kumar With Manjhi now deciding to fight the electionswith the BJP questions have been raised whether this would bring anyswing of the Dalit votes in favour of the BJP Though Manjhi belongs toMusahar which is a Mahadalit caste his own caste has been a staunchvote base of the CPI(ML) in thier strongholds It remains to be seenwhether Manjhi is able to get pan-Mahadalit support and if the ordernon-Musahar non-Paswan Mahadalit castes also rally behind him Howthe BJPrsquos core support base the upper castes reacts to Manjhi alsoremains to be seen Manjhi after all had made some very controversialstatements against upper castes while he was chief minister2 Anotherinteresting aspect to watch out for in the 2015 assembly elections wouldbe the preferences of men and women among the Dalit community Thisis because CSDS data from the 2014 Lok Sabha election reveals thatthere was a clear gender gap with respect to Dalit voting Dalit men voted
2At a function in Bettiah on January 1 2015 Jitan Ram Manjhi had termedupper caste people as ldquoforeigners and descendants of Aryan racerdquo
The BJP had slammed him for stoking caste tension in the stateFor more see lsquoManjhi dubs upper caste people as foreignersrsquo The Hindu January
2 2015 Available at httpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesmanjhi-dubs-upper-caste-people-as-foreigners-bjp-slams-commentarticle6590538ece
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies90
for the BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance in much greater proportion than Dalitwomen - 46 percent to 39 percent (Table 5) Moreover while the gap interms of votes between the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress (ifwe add up their votes) among Dalit men was a whopping 20 percentagepoints among Dalit women it was a neck-and-neck battle as bothformations got around 40 percent votes each This differing voting patternin terms of gender was the most pronounced among Dalits compared toother caste groups such as the OBCs and upper castes among whom menand women voted more or less similarly Within Dalits the gender dividein voting was most noticeable among Chamars compared to other sub-castes With Jitan Ram Manjhi eyeing the Dalit vote and harping on Dalitunity this gender divide among Dalits could well be Nitish Kumarrsquos besthope to offset the Manjhi factor and the former JDU leaderrsquos attempt tocreate a unified Dalit vote Kumar may well succeed in retaining theadvantage JDU has among Dalit women vis a vis Dalit men consideringhe has been actively wooing the womenrsquos vote by introducing severalwelfare schemes for them during his tenure (Srivastava 2015)
Table 5Voting patterns of SC OBC and Upper Castes in
2014 LS election by Gender
Caste group by Gender 2014 Lok Sabha electionVote BJP+ Vote JDU+
SCMen 45 25Women 39 40OBCMen 31 54Women 30 53Upper casteMen 80 11Women 80 17Note BJP+ includes BJP LJP and RLSP JDU+ includes JDU RJD and CongressJDU contested independently in 2014 but since JDU RJD and Congress are fightingthe 2015 assembly elections together their vote shares for 2014 have been added here
91
References 1 The Hindu (2009) Non-inclusion of Paswans in Maha Dalit list angers Paswan
The Hindu November 19 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available athttpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesnoninclusion-of-paswans-in-maha-dalit-list-angers-paswanarticle51356ece
2 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi rush to please Paswan The Telegraph February15 2015 Report by Anand Raj Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150215jspfrontpagestory3478jsp VW_zrdLzrIU
3 Dasgupta Subhabrata (2015) Manjhirsquos lsquoMahadalitrsquo stunt An election gimmickBihar voters are too smart to buy saddahaqcom February 17 2015 Availableat httpswwwsaddahaqcompoliticsmanjhis mahadalitmovemanjhis-mahadalit-stunt-an-election-gimmick-bihar-voters-are-too-smart-to-buy
4 The Indian Express (2015) All Dalits now Mahadalits question is whorsquostheir leader The Indian Express February 16 2015 Report by Santosh SinghAvailable at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersall-dalits-now-mahadalits-question-is-whos-their-leadersthashl49 YeAhadpuf
5 The Hindu (2009) Nitish attempt to uplift lsquoMaha Dalitrsquo base The Hindu August1 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available at httpwwwthehinducomtodays-papertp-nationaltp-otherstatesnitish-attempt-to-uplift-maha-dalit-basearticle194636ece
6 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi foot in BJP camp The Telegraph June 12 2015Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150612jspfrontpagestory_25228jspVZzO7RvzrIU
7 Ahmed Soroor (2014) Dalit pull in Bihar politics Daily News and AnalysisOctober 7 2014 Available at httpwwwdnaindiacomanalysiscolumn-dalit-pull-in-bihar-politics-2023991
8 Jha Dhirendra (2015) How Bihar chief minister Manjhi revived Dalit politicsin the Hindi belt Scrollin January 11 2015 Available at httpscrollinarticle699711how-bihar-chief-minister-manjhi-revived-dalit-politics-in-the-hindi-belt
9 Singh Santosh (2015) 10 Manjhi decisions which Nitish will find difficult toreverse The Indian Express February 24 2015 Available at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersmanjhis-legacy-on-nitishs-shoulders
10 The Telegraph (2015) Mahadalit hurdle stares at Nitish The TelegraphFebruary 9 2015 Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150209jspbiharstory_2267jspVZpdZhvzrIV
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies92
11 Srivastava Arun (2015) Bihar Nitishrsquos Search for Strategy to Uplift WomenAhead of Elections Mainstream Vol LIII No 18 April 25 2015 Available athttpwwwmainstreamweeklynetarticle5625html
m m m
89
not received similar detailed attention at least not as much as theyhave in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh However the upcoming 2015election is likely to force political analysts as well as political parties togo beyond this OBC and Upper caste-centric approach for Bihar as Dalitchoices could well play a decisive role There has been a reinvention ofDalit identity in the state over the last eight years Nitish Kumar wasthe one who created the Mahadalit category in the first place But inrecent times Jitan Ram Manjhi has tried to play the same card moreaggressively after being handpicked for the post of chief minister byNitish Kumar and later after being dislodged Some of his decisionsduring his tenure as the Chief Minister such as incorporating Paswansin the category of Mahadalit and increasing entitlements of Dalits wereaimed at cultivating his image as a Mahadalit leader Before ManjhiBihar had had two chief ministers belonging to the Dalit community -Bhola Paswan Shastri (1968-1972) and Ram Sundar Das (1979-1980)However while they had operated within a political structure dominatedby upper castes and OBCs Manjhi refused to play second fiddle to hisOBC boss Nitish Kumar With Manjhi now deciding to fight the electionswith the BJP questions have been raised whether this would bring anyswing of the Dalit votes in favour of the BJP Though Manjhi belongs toMusahar which is a Mahadalit caste his own caste has been a staunchvote base of the CPI(ML) in thier strongholds It remains to be seenwhether Manjhi is able to get pan-Mahadalit support and if the ordernon-Musahar non-Paswan Mahadalit castes also rally behind him Howthe BJPrsquos core support base the upper castes reacts to Manjhi alsoremains to be seen Manjhi after all had made some very controversialstatements against upper castes while he was chief minister2 Anotherinteresting aspect to watch out for in the 2015 assembly elections wouldbe the preferences of men and women among the Dalit community Thisis because CSDS data from the 2014 Lok Sabha election reveals thatthere was a clear gender gap with respect to Dalit voting Dalit men voted
2At a function in Bettiah on January 1 2015 Jitan Ram Manjhi had termedupper caste people as ldquoforeigners and descendants of Aryan racerdquo
The BJP had slammed him for stoking caste tension in the stateFor more see lsquoManjhi dubs upper caste people as foreignersrsquo The Hindu January
2 2015 Available at httpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesmanjhi-dubs-upper-caste-people-as-foreigners-bjp-slams-commentarticle6590538ece
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies90
for the BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance in much greater proportion than Dalitwomen - 46 percent to 39 percent (Table 5) Moreover while the gap interms of votes between the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress (ifwe add up their votes) among Dalit men was a whopping 20 percentagepoints among Dalit women it was a neck-and-neck battle as bothformations got around 40 percent votes each This differing voting patternin terms of gender was the most pronounced among Dalits compared toother caste groups such as the OBCs and upper castes among whom menand women voted more or less similarly Within Dalits the gender dividein voting was most noticeable among Chamars compared to other sub-castes With Jitan Ram Manjhi eyeing the Dalit vote and harping on Dalitunity this gender divide among Dalits could well be Nitish Kumarrsquos besthope to offset the Manjhi factor and the former JDU leaderrsquos attempt tocreate a unified Dalit vote Kumar may well succeed in retaining theadvantage JDU has among Dalit women vis a vis Dalit men consideringhe has been actively wooing the womenrsquos vote by introducing severalwelfare schemes for them during his tenure (Srivastava 2015)
Table 5Voting patterns of SC OBC and Upper Castes in
2014 LS election by Gender
Caste group by Gender 2014 Lok Sabha electionVote BJP+ Vote JDU+
SCMen 45 25Women 39 40OBCMen 31 54Women 30 53Upper casteMen 80 11Women 80 17Note BJP+ includes BJP LJP and RLSP JDU+ includes JDU RJD and CongressJDU contested independently in 2014 but since JDU RJD and Congress are fightingthe 2015 assembly elections together their vote shares for 2014 have been added here
91
References 1 The Hindu (2009) Non-inclusion of Paswans in Maha Dalit list angers Paswan
The Hindu November 19 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available athttpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesnoninclusion-of-paswans-in-maha-dalit-list-angers-paswanarticle51356ece
2 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi rush to please Paswan The Telegraph February15 2015 Report by Anand Raj Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150215jspfrontpagestory3478jsp VW_zrdLzrIU
3 Dasgupta Subhabrata (2015) Manjhirsquos lsquoMahadalitrsquo stunt An election gimmickBihar voters are too smart to buy saddahaqcom February 17 2015 Availableat httpswwwsaddahaqcompoliticsmanjhis mahadalitmovemanjhis-mahadalit-stunt-an-election-gimmick-bihar-voters-are-too-smart-to-buy
4 The Indian Express (2015) All Dalits now Mahadalits question is whorsquostheir leader The Indian Express February 16 2015 Report by Santosh SinghAvailable at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersall-dalits-now-mahadalits-question-is-whos-their-leadersthashl49 YeAhadpuf
5 The Hindu (2009) Nitish attempt to uplift lsquoMaha Dalitrsquo base The Hindu August1 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available at httpwwwthehinducomtodays-papertp-nationaltp-otherstatesnitish-attempt-to-uplift-maha-dalit-basearticle194636ece
6 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi foot in BJP camp The Telegraph June 12 2015Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150612jspfrontpagestory_25228jspVZzO7RvzrIU
7 Ahmed Soroor (2014) Dalit pull in Bihar politics Daily News and AnalysisOctober 7 2014 Available at httpwwwdnaindiacomanalysiscolumn-dalit-pull-in-bihar-politics-2023991
8 Jha Dhirendra (2015) How Bihar chief minister Manjhi revived Dalit politicsin the Hindi belt Scrollin January 11 2015 Available at httpscrollinarticle699711how-bihar-chief-minister-manjhi-revived-dalit-politics-in-the-hindi-belt
9 Singh Santosh (2015) 10 Manjhi decisions which Nitish will find difficult toreverse The Indian Express February 24 2015 Available at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersmanjhis-legacy-on-nitishs-shoulders
10 The Telegraph (2015) Mahadalit hurdle stares at Nitish The TelegraphFebruary 9 2015 Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150209jspbiharstory_2267jspVZpdZhvzrIV
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies92
11 Srivastava Arun (2015) Bihar Nitishrsquos Search for Strategy to Uplift WomenAhead of Elections Mainstream Vol LIII No 18 April 25 2015 Available athttpwwwmainstreamweeklynetarticle5625html
m m m
Democracies90
for the BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance in much greater proportion than Dalitwomen - 46 percent to 39 percent (Table 5) Moreover while the gap interms of votes between the BJP alliance and the JDU-RJD-Congress (ifwe add up their votes) among Dalit men was a whopping 20 percentagepoints among Dalit women it was a neck-and-neck battle as bothformations got around 40 percent votes each This differing voting patternin terms of gender was the most pronounced among Dalits compared toother caste groups such as the OBCs and upper castes among whom menand women voted more or less similarly Within Dalits the gender dividein voting was most noticeable among Chamars compared to other sub-castes With Jitan Ram Manjhi eyeing the Dalit vote and harping on Dalitunity this gender divide among Dalits could well be Nitish Kumarrsquos besthope to offset the Manjhi factor and the former JDU leaderrsquos attempt tocreate a unified Dalit vote Kumar may well succeed in retaining theadvantage JDU has among Dalit women vis a vis Dalit men consideringhe has been actively wooing the womenrsquos vote by introducing severalwelfare schemes for them during his tenure (Srivastava 2015)
Table 5Voting patterns of SC OBC and Upper Castes in
2014 LS election by Gender
Caste group by Gender 2014 Lok Sabha electionVote BJP+ Vote JDU+
SCMen 45 25Women 39 40OBCMen 31 54Women 30 53Upper casteMen 80 11Women 80 17Note BJP+ includes BJP LJP and RLSP JDU+ includes JDU RJD and CongressJDU contested independently in 2014 but since JDU RJD and Congress are fightingthe 2015 assembly elections together their vote shares for 2014 have been added here
91
References 1 The Hindu (2009) Non-inclusion of Paswans in Maha Dalit list angers Paswan
The Hindu November 19 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available athttpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesnoninclusion-of-paswans-in-maha-dalit-list-angers-paswanarticle51356ece
2 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi rush to please Paswan The Telegraph February15 2015 Report by Anand Raj Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150215jspfrontpagestory3478jsp VW_zrdLzrIU
3 Dasgupta Subhabrata (2015) Manjhirsquos lsquoMahadalitrsquo stunt An election gimmickBihar voters are too smart to buy saddahaqcom February 17 2015 Availableat httpswwwsaddahaqcompoliticsmanjhis mahadalitmovemanjhis-mahadalit-stunt-an-election-gimmick-bihar-voters-are-too-smart-to-buy
4 The Indian Express (2015) All Dalits now Mahadalits question is whorsquostheir leader The Indian Express February 16 2015 Report by Santosh SinghAvailable at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersall-dalits-now-mahadalits-question-is-whos-their-leadersthashl49 YeAhadpuf
5 The Hindu (2009) Nitish attempt to uplift lsquoMaha Dalitrsquo base The Hindu August1 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available at httpwwwthehinducomtodays-papertp-nationaltp-otherstatesnitish-attempt-to-uplift-maha-dalit-basearticle194636ece
6 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi foot in BJP camp The Telegraph June 12 2015Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150612jspfrontpagestory_25228jspVZzO7RvzrIU
7 Ahmed Soroor (2014) Dalit pull in Bihar politics Daily News and AnalysisOctober 7 2014 Available at httpwwwdnaindiacomanalysiscolumn-dalit-pull-in-bihar-politics-2023991
8 Jha Dhirendra (2015) How Bihar chief minister Manjhi revived Dalit politicsin the Hindi belt Scrollin January 11 2015 Available at httpscrollinarticle699711how-bihar-chief-minister-manjhi-revived-dalit-politics-in-the-hindi-belt
9 Singh Santosh (2015) 10 Manjhi decisions which Nitish will find difficult toreverse The Indian Express February 24 2015 Available at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersmanjhis-legacy-on-nitishs-shoulders
10 The Telegraph (2015) Mahadalit hurdle stares at Nitish The TelegraphFebruary 9 2015 Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150209jspbiharstory_2267jspVZpdZhvzrIV
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies92
11 Srivastava Arun (2015) Bihar Nitishrsquos Search for Strategy to Uplift WomenAhead of Elections Mainstream Vol LIII No 18 April 25 2015 Available athttpwwwmainstreamweeklynetarticle5625html
m m m
91
References 1 The Hindu (2009) Non-inclusion of Paswans in Maha Dalit list angers Paswan
The Hindu November 19 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available athttpwwwthehinducomnewsnationalother-statesnoninclusion-of-paswans-in-maha-dalit-list-angers-paswanarticle51356ece
2 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi rush to please Paswan The Telegraph February15 2015 Report by Anand Raj Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150215jspfrontpagestory3478jsp VW_zrdLzrIU
3 Dasgupta Subhabrata (2015) Manjhirsquos lsquoMahadalitrsquo stunt An election gimmickBihar voters are too smart to buy saddahaqcom February 17 2015 Availableat httpswwwsaddahaqcompoliticsmanjhis mahadalitmovemanjhis-mahadalit-stunt-an-election-gimmick-bihar-voters-are-too-smart-to-buy
4 The Indian Express (2015) All Dalits now Mahadalits question is whorsquostheir leader The Indian Express February 16 2015 Report by Santosh SinghAvailable at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersall-dalits-now-mahadalits-question-is-whos-their-leadersthashl49 YeAhadpuf
5 The Hindu (2009) Nitish attempt to uplift lsquoMaha Dalitrsquo base The Hindu August1 2009 Report by Shoumojit Banerjee Available at httpwwwthehinducomtodays-papertp-nationaltp-otherstatesnitish-attempt-to-uplift-maha-dalit-basearticle194636ece
6 The Telegraph (2015) Manjhi foot in BJP camp The Telegraph June 12 2015Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150612jspfrontpagestory_25228jspVZzO7RvzrIU
7 Ahmed Soroor (2014) Dalit pull in Bihar politics Daily News and AnalysisOctober 7 2014 Available at httpwwwdnaindiacomanalysiscolumn-dalit-pull-in-bihar-politics-2023991
8 Jha Dhirendra (2015) How Bihar chief minister Manjhi revived Dalit politicsin the Hindi belt Scrollin January 11 2015 Available at httpscrollinarticle699711how-bihar-chief-minister-manjhi-revived-dalit-politics-in-the-hindi-belt
9 Singh Santosh (2015) 10 Manjhi decisions which Nitish will find difficult toreverse The Indian Express February 24 2015 Available at httpindianexpresscomarticleindiaindia-othersmanjhis-legacy-on-nitishs-shoulders
10 The Telegraph (2015) Mahadalit hurdle stares at Nitish The TelegraphFebruary 9 2015 Available at httpwwwtelegraphindiacom1150209jspbiharstory_2267jspVZpdZhvzrIV
The (Maha) Dalit Factor in Biharrsquos Politics
Democracies92
11 Srivastava Arun (2015) Bihar Nitishrsquos Search for Strategy to Uplift WomenAhead of Elections Mainstream Vol LIII No 18 April 25 2015 Available athttpwwwmainstreamweeklynetarticle5625html
m m m
Democracies92
11 Srivastava Arun (2015) Bihar Nitishrsquos Search for Strategy to Uplift WomenAhead of Elections Mainstream Vol LIII No 18 April 25 2015 Available athttpwwwmainstreamweeklynetarticle5625html
m m m