new applications using real-time observations and ecmwf ... · [senior meteorological researcher,...
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1212thth Workshop on Meteorological Workshop on Meteorological Operational SystemsOperational Systems
Wim van den BergWim van den Berg[senior meteorological researcher, project coordinator][senior meteorological researcher, project coordinator]
New applications using realNew applications using real--time time observations and ECMWF model observations and ECMWF model
datadata
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Overview
MeteoConsult and MeteoGroup
Use of observations (and/or ECMWF data) inPrecipitation and cloud (radiation) now casts applied to MOSAutomatic fronts and textRoad network forecast
Some future applications
12th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
02 November 2009 | page 2
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MeteoConsult
Most important markets (2009):• Marine (offshore, ship routing)• Weather & Traffic (road, rail)• Agriculture • Energy• Broadcast• Consumer
02 November 2009 | page 312th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
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MeteoGroup
12th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
02 November 2009 | page 4
1986: MeteoConsult NL 2000: D + UK + B2005: MeteoGroup, part of
+ S + SP2009: F + PL (+Italy)
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Use of ECMWF data
02 November 2009 | page 512th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
Change to IFS cy16: T1279 (EPS T639)
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Overview
MeteoConsult and MeteoGroup
Use of observations (and/or ECMWF data) inPrecipitation and cloud (radiation) now casts applied to MOSMOSAutomatic fronts and textRoad network forecast
Future applications
12th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
02 November 2009 | page 6
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Summary MG MModel OOutput SStatistics
365 obs minimum
02 November 2009 | page 7
MOS equations
HistoricalOBS
Historical MODEL+
ECMWF Oper 0.25°ECMWF EPS 0.5°GFS 1.0° 0-180GFS 2.5° 180-384
One equation forEach stationEach elementEach forecast period
MOSforecast
MOS equations
ActualMODEL
Actual OBS, Radar,Satellite+ +
Improves nowcast and medium range (bias filters) if available
Long update: 15 days aheadShort update: 2 days ahead
12th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
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Summary MeteoGroup MOS MOS (2)(2)
• Yearly updates (latest Oct 27)• Worldwide• No gaps, all stations have all elements hourly up to D15• Postprocessing to derive special elements like
– effective cloudiness– minimum & maximum amount of precip, fresh snow– type of precip if any– most significant weather past period (1,3,6,12,24h)– regional weather code
• Editable by forecaster
02 November 2009 | page 812th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
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MOSMOS: Wind verification
Bias (night&early morning) in model strongly reduced
02 November 2009 | page 912th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
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Summary MeteoGroup MOS MOS (3)(3)
Different types of downscaling
• In time (for elements not observed hourly)
• In space- Partial downscaling: element not observed at all- Complete downscaling: station without (enough) observations, non-WMO &
Road stations, customer location- Virtual station: station in similar climate & height copied- To grid: downscaling to regular grid (10 or even 1km)
Important for road sites!
02 November 2009 | page 1012th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
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Precipitation nowcasts• Precipitation amount and probability improved with radar
1. Radar declutter2. Expected radar3. Application: Radar MOSMOS
• Precipitation type and weather symbol1. Prob. weather types in MOSMOS adjusted by SYNOP
(METAR)2. Application: Radar precipitation type & Weather symbol
Both are input for hourly updates of applications like Road Model.
12th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
02 November 2009 | page 11
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Radar declutter
12th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
02 November 2009 | page 12
Radar pre-processing, based on combination of methods, for each MG country
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Expected Radar
• Operational: displacement with (ECMWF) pressure level steering winds, default or selected by forecaster
• New: method based on calculation of the displacement vectors between two radar scans that are 20 min apart in time; the algorithm starts with large boxes that stepwise reduce in size to ~10x10km.
t=-20 mins02 November 2009 | page 1312th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF ©
MeteoGroup
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Expected radar (new)
12th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
2 5 6 7 5
2 4 4 5 5
1 2 3 4 4
0 0 2 4 2
0 0 1 2 2
4 4 4
4 4/4 4 4/5 5
4 4 3/4/5 /2/4
5 4/5 4
4 3/0/2 /4
3/2 3/4/5/0 /2/4/2
4 4/4
3/0/2 0 2 4 4/4
0 0/2 0/2/4 2/4 4
Observed scan
Expected scan
02 November 2009 | page 14
After displacement several algorithms needed to get a smooth picture without gaps.
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Verification
02 November 2009 | page 1512th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
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Example: 16 Mar. 2008 05- 08UTC
Grey topography -> observed radar scan 5’Coloured topography -> computed radar scan 15’
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Application: Radar MOSMOS
• Nowcast (HH+1,+2,+3) of precipitation amount/probability in MOSMOS is adjusted by: – SYNOP observations (when available)– RADAR obs & forecast
[timestep/radius/intensity of precipitation]
12th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
02 November 2009 | page 17
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Hour +1
Hour +2
Hour +3
Path of expected radar30%
probability
50%
probability
100% probability
Radar MOS
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Radar “dry” but light observed rain in previous
hour
High probability of precipitation in past
hour
Prediction p_ww_rr +1 hour ahead
02 November 2009 | page 1912th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
Expected radar
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02 November 200912th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
Prediction +2 hour ahead
Prob. of rain back to original low
values
High probability of precipitation in new
area
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02 November 200912th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
Prediction +3 hour ahead
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Precipitation nowcasts• Precipitation amount and probability improved with radar
1. Radar declutter2. Expected radar3. Application: Radar MOSMOS
• Precipitation type and weather symbol1. Prob. weather types in MOSMOS adjusted by SYNOP
(METAR)2. Application: Radar precipitation type & Weather
symbol
Both are input for hourly updates of applications like Road Model.12th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF ©
MeteoGroup02 November 2009 | page 22
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Influence Obs MOSMOS
• Hourly observations influence directly (up to +6) and indirectly (bias filtering) results, which affect also elements like:– P_ww_rr: probability of wet weather type– P_ww_ha: probability of hail – P_ww_sn: probability of snow– P_ww_fr: probability of freezing rain
improved MOSMOS precipitation type, weather codeimproved radar precipitation type
02 November 2009 | page 2312th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
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Influence Obs MOSMOS
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Radar Precip type• Radar precip type based on MOSMOS (WMO stations and
virtual stations offshore) and GTOPO-30 data– Rain or summer hail [ECMWF sigma level TW]
– Rain, sleet, snow, winter hail– Freezing rain (air, road, air+road) [Road obs & Road model]
• Different algorithms over sea, land• Special algorithms for mountains [ECMWF derived element
snmin, “snow certain above this height”]
02 November 2009 | page 2512th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
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1. Mask 2. Applied to actual radar
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Cloud (radiation) nowcasts
• Effective amount (octa) and global radiation (%), day1. MSG satellite picture (VIS)2. Expected cloud fields [steering: ECMWF pressure level
winds]
3. Application: Satellite MOSMOS
• Effective amount (octa), night1. History of virtual cloud observations (reversed road
model)2.2. MOSMOS cloud forecast at Road station
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Satellite MOS
10 June 2008Rad(%)
adjusted
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Overview
MeteoConsult and MeteoGroup
Use of observations (and/or ECMWF data) inPrecipitation and cloud (radiation) now casts applied to MOSAutomatic fronts and textRoad network forecast
Future applications
12th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
02 November 2009 | page 29
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Goal:Draw significant frontal systems automatically on a weather map.
Method:• Step 1: Determine all frontal systems using
Thermal front parameter at 925 hPaRelative humidity fields at 925/850/700 hPaSurface precipitation fieldsΘw fields
• Step 2: Merge frontal systems that belong to each other• Step 3: Select significant frontal systems• Step 4: Determine type of front: cold/warm/occlusion
02 November 2009 | page 3012th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
Automatic fronts
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02 November 2009 | page 3112th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
Future modifications
• Higher temporal consistency• Troughs • Better fitting to ‘conceptual model’
(marine customers and aviation)
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Marine Autotext
Goal: make automatic forecasts for marine sector to decrease work load of duty forecasters.Based on: Nautical MeteoBase, a mixture of different models [ECMWF, UKMO, GFS, HiRLAM]
Text describes for a customer location:• Pressure systems, in order of significance• Tropical systems (if present)• Local conditions (wind speed and direction,
sea temperature, sea and swell height etc.)
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Example
02 November 2009 | page 3412th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
•Only mark most significant systems within area•Special algorithm over mountainous areas (Alps, Himalaya etc.), tropics and high latitudes
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Example – autotextText for 51.00 N 1.00 W (23-10-2009):A deepening low pressure system (982 hPa) is positioned over the northern Atlantic (52N/32W) at 12 UTC. On 24 October, it will fill and move northeast. During the next days, it is expected to dissipate. On 24 October 00 UTC, a deepening low (991 hPa) will be positioned over the northern Atlantic (51N/16W) and is expected to move towards the Hebrides (59N/08W) on that day. Afterwards, it is forecast to fill and to move east. A high pressure system (1023 hPa) is expected over central Spain (39N/05W) on 24 October. Local conditions next 72 hrs:
Wind: SW-ly, light, increasing to fresh breeze on 24 October 12 UTC. Visibility: temporarily moderate. Sea temperature: 15-16C.
02 November 2009 | page 3512th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
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Overview
MeteoConsult and MeteoGroup
Use of observations (and/or ECMWF data) inPrecipitation and cloud (radiation) now casts applied to MOSAutomatic fronts and textRoad network forecast
Future applications
12th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
02 November 2009 | page 36
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Road network forecast
• Road model – Physical part, location based– Statistical part (ECMWF,….. MOSMOS)
• Network model• Network forecast
12th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
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Road model (site specific)
Energy balance methodInput elements (Obs & MOSMOS):
• Air temperature
• Cloudiness
• Dewpoint temperature
• Precipitation
• Wind speed
• Soil temperature
• Soil type
• Road type (bridge?)
Road surface temperature
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Winter road maintenance = route
Weather and Road condition forecast along route
Route and salting optimalization
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Network model
From point forecast to a route forecast
-2 oC 0 oC2 oC
?
?
??
?
?
?
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Calculating model for road surface
temperatures on routes
Gridded MOSMOS high resolution weather forecast(10 x10 km)
Database with data for all routes: sky and sun view factor
Network forecast
Network model
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Sky view factor = 0.89
0º
1º
2º
‐1º
‐2ºbron Google
Sky view factor = 0.36
Example Troad & sky- view
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Example thermal map city of Maastricht
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GIS sky-view factor?
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0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Sky View Factor
sample location number
reference SVF
SVF full DEM (gl)
SVF full DEM (1.5 m above gl )
Camera and GIS method, without tree correction
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Network forecast: resultObservation (Thermal mapping)
23 January 2007
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Forecast (Networkmodel)
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Some future applications (1/2)
• Integration of high resolution model (UKMO, HiRLAM, WRF) with Radar and MOSMOS system
• WRF at 9km for Europe, 4x/day (currently based on ECWMF 00 and 12z BC; 3D-VAR initialization of
SYNOPs)
WRF at 3km in all areas important for MeteoGroup customers– Wind at hub height in mountainous terrain– Hindcast studies– Risk of severe weather
12th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup
02 November 2009 | page 46
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Some future applications (2/2)• Extension of autotext to other customers (e.g.
newspapers)
• Integration of Road Expert System and Road Forecast
02 November 2009 | page 4712th Workshop on Meteor. Oper. Systems, ECMWF © MeteoGroup