new base 709 special 19 october 2015

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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 19 October 2015 - Issue No. 709 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE and N.Zealand partner to boost solar power in Solomom Islands WAM + Gulf News + NewBase The UAE and New Zealand have signed an arrangement for the development of a jointly funded 1MW solar photovoltaic power plant in the Solomon Islands. Both countries share a common interest in the rapid deployment of renewable energy in developing countries, particularly in the Pacific region, and signed a renewable energy partnership arrangement in January 2014. This 1MW power plant 600kW funded by the UAE and 400kW funded by the New Zealand Government through the New Zealand Aid Programme, will be developed by Masdar. It will bring clean, reliable power to the grid in Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands. The power plant will meet 7 per cent of the Solomon Islands’ energy needs and reduce CO2 emissions by over 1,200 tonnes while saving over approximately 450,000 litres of diesel annually. Dr Thani Ahmad Al Zeyoudi, UAE Permanent Representative to the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) and Director of Energy and Climate Change at the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs, signed the arrangement in Abu Dhabi last week with Jeremy Clarke-Watson, Ambassador of New Zealand. The solar PV plant is part of the United Arab Emirates Pacific Partnership Fund. This $50 million fund was established in 2013 to develop wind and solar projects to support economic and social development across 11 Pacific island nations with projects being delivered by Masdar and funding provided by the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development. Of the projects being delivered under the fund, six have already been delivered or are currently under construction. The first completed project was the 512kW solar PV installation in Tonga, while others include the first ever 550kW wind farm for Samoa, three micro-grid solar plants in Fiji that supply clean energy to some of the nation’s outer islands, and solar plants for Tuvalu, Kiribati and Vanuatu. New Zealand has been driving a major push to boost the uptake of renewable energy in the Pacific, and this project is part of a wider $100 million investment in renewable energy across seven Pacific Island countries.

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Page 1: New base 709 special  19 october 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1

NewBase 19 October 2015 - Issue No. 709 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

UAE and N.Zealand partner to boost solar power in Solomom Islands WAM + Gulf News + NewBase

The UAE and New Zealand have signed an arrangement for the development of a jointly funded 1MW solar photovoltaic power plant in the Solomon Islands.

Both countries share a common interest in the rapid deployment of renewable energy in developing countries, particularly in the Pacific region, and signed a renewable energy partnership arrangement in January 2014.

This 1MW power plant 600kW funded by the UAE and 400kW funded by the New Zealand Government through the New Zealand Aid Programme, will be developed by Masdar. It will bring clean, reliable power

to the grid in Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands. The power plant will meet 7 per cent of the Solomon Islands’ energy needs and reduce CO2 emissions by over 1,200 tonnes while saving over approximately 450,000 litres of diesel annually.

Dr Thani Ahmad Al Zeyoudi, UAE Permanent Representative to the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) and Director of Energy and Climate Change at the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs, signed the arrangement in Abu Dhabi last week with Jeremy Clarke-Watson, Ambassador of New Zealand.

The solar PV plant is part of the United Arab Emirates Pacific Partnership Fund. This $50 million fund was established in 2013 to develop wind and solar projects to support economic and social development across 11 Pacific island nations with projects being delivered by Masdar and funding

provided by the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development.

Of the projects being delivered under the fund, six have already been delivered or are currently under construction. The first completed project was the 512kW solar PV installation in Tonga, while others include the first ever 550kW wind farm for Samoa, three micro-grid solar plants in Fiji that supply clean energy to some of the nation’s outer islands, and solar plants for Tuvalu, Kiribati and Vanuatu.

New Zealand has been driving a major push to boost the uptake of renewable energy in the Pacific, and this project is part of a wider $100 million investment in renewable energy across seven Pacific Island countries.

Page 2: New base 709 special  19 october 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2

Iraq: Kuwait Energy announces oil production from Faihaa-1 Source: Kuwait Energy

Kuwait Energy has announced that the consortium comprising of Kuwait Energy Company (60%) as the operator, Dragon Oil (30%) and the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (10%) has commenced oil production from the Faihaa-1 well in Block 9, Iraq.

The Faihaa-1 well is located in Block 9, which is situated in the hub of Iraq’s oil industry in the Basra Governorate, in Southern Iraq. Production has begun from the Faihaa-1 well in the order of 5,000 bpd on 32/64 inch choke.

Sara Akbar, CEO of Kuwait Energy, said:

'We are proud to have begun production in record time after making the discovery last December, which demonstrates the feasibility of executing such a fast track project in world record time in South Iraq.

'This would not have been possible without the cooperation and full support of the Iraq Ministry of Oil, the South Oil Company, the Block 9 Joint Management Committee (“JMC”) Chairman and its members, the support of our partners, Dragon Oil and the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation, and the diligent and determined Kuwait Energy team in Basra and Kuwait.'

Page 3: New base 709 special  19 october 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3

Iraq: BP and China's CNPC to unveil oil alliance Source: Reuters BP and China's CNPC will next week unveil a strategic alliance to develop oil resources in Iraq and other regions, industry sources said on Friday, as Britain and China seek to tighten economic ties.

The pact, one of several high-profile deals to be signed during a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Britain, will aim to bolster cooperation between the two companies in Iraq, where they are developing the giant Rumaila oilfield. Rumaila, in southern Iraq, is the world's second-largest oilfield and produced 1.34 million barrels per day in 2014, according to BP's website.

The two companies will also seek to expand into new joint ventures in other parts of the world, according to the sources. No clear production or investment targets are expected to be included in the deal, they said.

State-owned China National Petroleum Corp is Asia's largest oil producer and parent of PetroChina Co Ltd. BP will also seek to use the alliance to expand its operations in China, which have been limited mainly to a fuel retail joint venture. Its peers Royal Dutch Shell and Total have natural gas operations with CNPC.

For CNPC, the alliance could offer opportunities also to deepen operations in the North Sea and West Africa, where BP has extensive operations. A BP spokesman declined to comment. CNPC was not immediately available to comment.

The British government wants to use Xi's Oct. 19-23 visit to tighten cooperation between the two countries with a number of economic and cultural agreements. Britain hopes to sign an agreement with Chinese utility companies CGN and CNNC to finance the construction of two nuclear reactors at Hinkley Point.

It was unclear, however, whether the long-mooted deal would be inked during the trip, China's ambassador Liu Xiaoming told reporters.

Xi's state visit, during which he will dine at Buckingham Palace, marks a significant improvement in ties between the two countries after Prime Minister David Cameron angered Beijing in 2012 by meeting the Dalai Lama.

Page 4: New base 709 special  19 october 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4

Saudi's China Oil Play Has No One Over a Barrel Bloomberg - David Fickling

Saudi Arabia has traditionally had a lock on Asian oil markets. In Japan, Korea and Taiwan, the kingdom’s barrels make up about one third of crude oil imports.

In China, that position is now under threat from Russia. Russia has shrugged off Western sanctions over Ukraine and enjoyed a plunge in production costs thanks to the ruble’s slide against the greenback. It briefly surpassed Saudi as China’s leading crude supplier in May and will strengthen its position over the next decade as it builds a second pipeline to the country, according to BMI Research:

Saudi Arabia isn’t about to take the challenge lying down.

State-owned Saudi Aramco is looking at multi-billion-dollar deals to buy marketing, refining and retail assets from China’s CNPC, Bloomberg News reported earlier this month. It’s already receiving record quantities of crude at its leased storage tanks on Japan’s Okinawa archipelago. Sabic, the world’s biggest chemicals company after BASF, is planning at least three joint venture projects in China, Bloomberg’s Deema Almashabi reported overnight.

This activity takes a leaf from the playbook of the Seven Sisters, the British and U.S. giants who dominated global oil trade through the middle of the 20th century by owning every bit of the supply chain from the well to the pump. If you own the refinery, you can choose to buy crude from your own oilfields rather than the competition’s.

Page 5: New base 709 special  19 october 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5

Whether the strategy succeeds will be an interesting test of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s efforts to reform the country’s state-owned companies. Shaking up “zombie enterprises” by allowing more international investment is one thing; giving foreign governments a bigger say over China’s energy supply is quite another.

That’s particularly the case when the motivation for Saudi’s investment looks so clearly strategic.

If Riyadh was making a purely commercial decision about where to pick up downstream assets, China wouldn’t be the obvious place to put its money. The country’s energy industry is heavily regulated: Refined products are subject to price controls and independent refiners have only recently been allowed to buy oil on the international markets. Plants in the north of China are currently operating at about 57 percent of capacity, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, versus a rate in the U.S. that rarely dips below 80 percent.

The risk to Saudi’s Seven Sisters strategy is that it’s a zero-sum game between producers and consumers. It only makes sense for an oil producer to own a refinery if it can use the relationship to buy crude from its own wells at uncompetitive rates. Beijing, whose primary interest is in guaranteeing the cheapest supply of refined products to its domestic economy, isn’t likely to put up with that.

Page 6: New base 709 special  19 october 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6

Saudi Crude Stockpiles at Record High Amid Quest to Keep Share Bloomberg - Wael Mahdi

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, is storing record amounts of crude in its quest to maintain market share as it cut shipments.

Commercial crude stockpiles in August rose to 326.6 million barrels, the highest since at least 2002, from 320.2 million barrels in July, according to data posted on the website of the Riyadh-based Joint Organisations Data Initiative. Exports dropped to 7 million barrels a day from 7.28 million.

“The fall in Saudi crude exports reflects the market reality,” Mohammed Ramady, an independent London-based analyst, said Sunday by phone. “It’s normal to see this fall knowing that the market is becoming highly competitive, with many countries in OPEC selling at discounts and under-pricing the Saudi crude.”

Crude inventories have been at record highs since May, a month before Saudi Arabia’s production hit an all-time high of 10.56 million barrels a day. The nation has led the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in boosting production to defend market share, abandoning its previous role of cutting output to boost prices.

Brent crude oil prices have slid 12 percent this year as Saudi Arabia led the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in boosting production to defend the group’s market share amid a global supply glut. Brent futures for December settlement closed Friday at $50.46 a barrel in London, up 73 cents.

Saudi Arabia cut back oil production in August to 10.27 million barrels a day from 10.36 million in July, according to the JODI data. The kingdom told OPEC that it produced 10.23 million barrels daily in September. It pumped at an all-time high of 10.56 million barrels a day in June, exceeding a previous record from 1980.

“The rise in Saudi crude stocks is part of the market share strategy,” Ramady said. “Saudi Arabia will not lower it’s production below 10.2 million barrels a day, so any extra crude is going to stocks. We’ve seen this trend for a couple of months now, and we expect it to continue as long as Riyadh wants to preserve its share in this highly competitive market.”

Page 7: New base 709 special  19 october 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7

US govt cancels plans to allow Arctic oil drilling Oman Observer + IANS

The US government has cancelled plans to allow oil drilling along the Arctic coasts of Alaska for the next two years, the interior department announced. The decision signifies the elimination of offshore lease sales for oil drilling rights in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and comes less than a month after the Shell oil company decided to suspend its exploration for crude and natural gas on the Alaska coast, EFE reported on Saturday.

“This decision reflects both the Burger J well result, the high costs associated with the project, and the challenging and unpredictable federal regulatory environment in offshore Alaska.” “In light of Shell’s announcement, the amount of acreage already under lease and current market conditions, it does not make sense to prepare for lease sales in the Arctic in the next year and a half,” interior secretary Sally Jewell said.

The Barack Obama administration also decided to refuse the requests of Shell and Norway’s Statoil to move to a later date the lease contracts in the Arctic they obtained from the government of George W Bush.

The two offshore lease sales that the US had planned for the next two years were the one in 2016 for drilling rights in the Chukchi Sea and the other in 2017 for the Beaufort Sea. Despite the hold on bidding during the next two years, the interior department still has plans for possible lease sales for drilling rights in the Arctic for the years 2020 and

2022.The final decision in those two cases will be up to the US president elected in 2016.

On September 28, the Anglo-Dutch oil company announced the suspension of its plans in Alaska due to some “disappointing” results from an important oil well in the sea off Chukotka, that unfortunately coincided with a time when the price of crude was at its lowest in recent years. “Shell will now cease further exploration activity in offshore Alaska for the foreseeable future,” the oil company said at the time.

Page 8: New base 709 special  19 october 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8

NewBase 13 October - 2015 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

Oil prices slip as China Q3 GDP growth falls Oil prices dipped on Monday as China's economic growth eased in the third quarter to grow at the slowest pace since the start of the global financial crisis.

Brent for December delivery was down 18 cents at $50.28 a barrel as of 0414 GMT after settling up 73 cents on Friday. U.S. crude for November delivery was down 15 cents at $47.11 after finishing the previous session up 7 cents.

China's GDP figures showed growth slowed to 6.9 percent between July-September, beating analysts' expectations for 6.8 percent growth, but down on a 7 percent rise in the second quarter.

Quarter-on-quarter growth was 1.8 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said, against market expectations of a 1.7 percent rise.

"The figures show nothing really concrete, although they err on the side of a little bit of weakness in the economy and the way is open for more stimulus," said Jonathan Barratt, chief investment officer at Sydney's Ayers Alliance.

Investors would likely wait for London and New York to set a direction for oil markets, he added.

Singapore's Phillip Futures said on Monday that while China's retail sales had turned out to be strong, industrial related data remained weak.

Oil price special

coverage

Page 9: New base 709 special  19 october 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9

"With weak Chinese industrial production, we may see Chinese manufacturing PMI worsen, thus, leading to weaker oil prices for the week," the broker said in a note.

Investors are also waiting for preliminary manufacturing purchasing manager's index figures from the Eurozone and the United States on Friday

"Considering the expectations for both China and Eurozone, we could see U.S. being the tie breaker between oil bulls and bears," the Phillip Futures note added.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) last week showed U.S. crude inventories rose by 7.6 million barrels even as the U.S. rig count fell for a seventh week in a row last week fueling concerns over global oversupply.

"It suggests again the world is awash with oil," Barratt said.

Investors were also eyeing moves on Sunday by the United States and the European Union to take formal legal steps to lift sanctions on Iran once Tehran meets the conditions tied to a landmark nuclear agreement with major world powers.

Page 10: New base 709 special  19 october 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10

Oil nations feel the strain of  Opec’s continuing price war Crisis-hit Venezuela to press for change in policy, reports Andrew Critchlow By Andrew Critchlow, Commodities editor

Almost a year ago Rafael Ramirez, Venezuela’s long-serving former oil minister, emerged from a tense meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) looking red faced and furious.

Within the privacy of Opec’s steel-clad secretariat building in Vienna’s quiet Helferstorferstrasse, Ramirez had remonstrated angrily with his counterpart from Saudi Arabia, Ali al-Naimi, about the urgent need for the group of major oil producers to push up the price of crude back to a level around $100 per barrel.

The two men couldn’t be more different in appearance or world view. The diminutive Al-Naimi is a rarity in Saudi Arabia, having risen to arguably the country’s most important job from humble origins as a Bedouin shepherd boy.

However, Al-Naimi stands as a titan in the global oil industry and wields the real power within Opec, a group that controls 60pc of the world’s oil.

Standing well over six feet tall, Ramirez towers over his Saudi counterpart but that is where his advantage ends. Although it sits on vast oil reserves estimated to exceed 290bn barrels, Venezuela has been marginalised within the group of 12 oil producers. Although still close to the country’s oil sector, Ramirez – who was close to the country’s late Marxist leader Hugo Chavez – is no longer officially part of its Opec delegation.

In contrast, Al-Naimi is the main architect for Opec’s current policy of allowing oil prices to weaken naturally to win back market share from US shale oil producers and its other major rival Russia.

With the support of a close network of Arab Gulf allies in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, Al-Naimi convinced Opec last November that it could no longer afford to surrender market share to its rivals by cutting its own production to defend higher prices.

So far the strategy has held together even though it has failed to significantly reduce oil production outside Opec member countries. However, that uneasy consensus within Opec will be put under severe test when the group meets for its final gathering of the year in December.

Falling oil prices have seen black market boom in Caracas

Page 11: New base 709 special  19 october 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11

Heading into the meeting in Vienna, Ramirez, who is now Venezuela’s ambassador to the United Nations, has already signalled his country’s intention to press for a change in policy. Lower oil prices have crippled Venezuela’s economy, where a 22pc spike in food price inflation in August has meant the country is even struggling to feed itself.

In a recent interview with Reuters, Ramirez said he wants Opec to cut production by introducing a series of price bands starting at $70 per barrel. The proposals he said would be formally presented for discussion at a meeting of “technical experts” which Opec is convening on October 21. This has potentially put Venezuela and its close allies within Opec, including Algeria, Nigeria and Iran, on a collision course with Al-Naimi and his Gulf Arab clique who still appear determined to maintain their current strategy.

According to Opec’s former president, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, a change in policy is unlikely without any cuts in production being matched by countries outside the group such as Russia and Mexico.

“Opec has no choice because they no longer have the tools to be a global “swing producer” anymore,” Al-Attiyah said. The former Qatari energy minister points to Opec’s falling share of the world market, down to just over 30pc from almost 60pc 20 years ago.

Saudi Arabia’s power within Opec comes from its vast oil reserves and production, which it has increased significantly since last November. It pumps around 10.5m barrels per day (bpd) of crude and has the capacity to increase output by 12.5m bpd if it so chooses, which gives it tremendous power alone to influence world oil markets.

“Even Saudi Arabia cannot play as the ‘swing producer’ anymore as they used to and we cannot always ask Saudi Arabia to make the sacrifice, and they won’t, because they will lose more of their market share,” said Al-Attiyah.

However, Al-Naimi’s hand in the forthcoming Opec meeting has been significantly weakened by the political turmoil now engulfing the kingdom. The succession of King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud has arguably seen Al-Naimi lose influence within the corridors of power in Riyadh. The kingdom’s current strategy at Opec was endorsed by the country’s previous ruler, the late King Abdullah, who was a key supporter of Al-Naimi.

Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi is under pressure

On taking power, King Salman elevated his son Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman to the role of deputy oil minister and replaced Al-Naimi as chairman of Saudi Aramco, the state-owned, oil-producing monopoly.

The oil price war, which Al-Naimi effectively started, has also put the kingdom’s finances under severe strain at a time when it is fighting a full scale war in Yemen and funding moderate opposition groups

fighting Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria.

King Salman’s government is now being openly criticised internally after 1,400 pilgrims were killed in a stampede outside Mecca last month, and the weak oil price is only adding to the political pressure that is building in Riyadh.

Page 12: New base 709 special  19 october 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12

The presence of Russia’s military in Syria essentially supporting the Assad regime will test Al-Naimi’s nerve even further. Russia is the world’s biggest oil producer just ahead of Saudi Arabia and neither side is willing to surrender market share to the other. The sight of Russian jets bombing Islamic State targets in Syria adds a worrying new dimension for Riyadh to consider when formulating its oil strategy.

To complicate December’s meeting even further, there is the issue of how to allow for increased production from Iran and the return of Indonesia as a member country. The historic deal reached this summer to rein in Tehran’s nuclear programme has brought the lifting of economic sanctions tantalisingly close for the Islamic republic.

Freed from the shackles of embargoes, Iran’s oil ministry predicts the country could increase exports by around 1m bpd by the middle of next year.

Sanctions had reduced Iran’s influence in Opec but this will change in December with the country’s experienced oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, likely to challenge Al-Naimi’s authority within the cartel. Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran are now at boiling point due to Tehran’s support of rebels in Yemen and the Assad regime in Syria.

Oil is arguably Saudi Arabia’s best weapon against both Russia and Iran. Although the kingdom’s finances are under severe strain from the collapse in export revenues it can still fall back on its $655bn (£423bn) of foreign assets while Russia and Iran will feel the impact of another year of weak oil prices more acutely.

After a year of carnage in the oil industry, it is now clear that it will take more time for Al-Naimi’s strategy of allowing weaker prices to do the job of totally shutting down higher cost producers. A 60pc slump in oil prices since last November has caused havoc but the main target of Opec ‘s campaign, shale oil in the US, has so far proved to be remarkably resilient.

Hardest hit have been the high cost producers in areas such as the North Sea where prices below $50 per barrel have placed the entire offshore industry at risk. Energy consultant Wood Mackenzie now fears that 140 fields in the waters off north-east Scotland, where oil has been pumped since the 1970s, could be closed down over the next five years if oil prices remain so low.

Page 13: New base 709 special  19 october 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13

NewBase Special Coverage

News Agencies News Release 19 Oct.. 2015

China's Selling Tons of U.S. Debt. Americans Couldn't Care Less. Bloomberg - Daniel Kruger

For all the dire warnings over China’s retreat from U.S. government debt, there is one simple fact that is being overlooked: American demand is as robust as ever.

Not only are domestic mutual funds buying record amounts of Treasuries at auctions this year, U.S. investors are also increasing their share of the $12.9 trillion market for the first time since 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The buying has been crucial in keeping a lid on America’s financing costs as China -- the largest foreign creditor with about $1.4 trillion of U.S. government debt -- pares its stake for the first time since at least 2001. Yields on benchmark Treasuries have surprised almost everyone by falling this year, dipping below 2 percent last week. The 10-year note yielded 2.04 percent at 12:12 p.m. in Tokyo Monday.

It’s not the scenario that doomsayers predicted would leave the U.S. vulnerable to China’s whims. But the fact that Americans are pouring into Treasuries may point to a deeper concern: the world’s largest economy, plagued by lackluster wage growth and almost no inflation, just isn’t strong enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

“As you develop a more pessimistic view on global growth, inflation, and rates, asset managers are going to buy Treasuries in that environment,” said Brandon Swensen, the co-head of U.S. fixed-income at RBC Global Asset Management, which oversees $35 billion.

Overseas Creditors

Page 14: New base 709 special  19 october 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

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Overseas creditors have played a key role in financing America’s debt as the nation borrowed heavily to pull the economy out of recession. Since 2008, foreigners have more than doubled their Treasury investments and now own about $6.1 trillion.

China has led the way, funneling hundreds of billions into Treasuries as the Asian nation boomed and it bought dollars to limit the gains in its currency.

Now that’s changing.

China’s economy grew 6.9 percent in the third quarter, the slowest pace since the first three months of 2009, a government report showed Monday, even as it kept Premier Li Keqiang’s target of 7 percent growth in 2015 within reach.

This year alone, China’s holdings have fallen about $200 billion as it raises money in support of its flagging economy and stock market. If the pattern holds, it would be the first time that China has pulled back from Treasuries on an annual basis. The tally includes Belgium, which analysts say is home to Chinese custodial accounts.

The People’s Bank of China directed questions on its Treasury holdings to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which didn’t reply to a fax seeking comment.

The Chinese pullback has led some to raise troubling questions about the U.S.’s ability to borrow and refinance its obligations at ultra-low rates year after year. It’s also reignited long-held concerns, aired over the years by both Republican and Democratic politicians, that China’s ownership of U.S. debt is a threat to America’s independence.

Homegrown Buyers

Homegrown demand for Treasuries suggests there’s no reason to panic.

Page 15: New base 709 special  19 october 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15

American funds have purchased 42 percent of the $1.6 trillion of notes and bonds sold at auctions this year, the highest since the Treasury department began breaking out the data five years ago. As recently as 2011, they bought as little as 18 percent.

As a group, U.S. investors of all types have also stepped up their holdings of Treasuries since they fell to a low in mid-2014. In 2015, that share has climbed 2.1 percentage points to 33.1 percent of the U.S. government debt market.

That might not sound like much, but the annual increase -- which has pushed up Americans’ holdings to a record $4.3 trillion -- would be the first since 2012.

Misplaced Worries

“The worries about China selling are misplaced,” said David Ader, the head of U.S. government-bond strategy at CRT Capital Group LLC. “This was one of the great fears of the bond market, and it’s happening and we took it in stride.”

While the appetite among Americans for the haven of U.S. debt has kept the government’s financing costs low, what’s worrisome is what it suggests about the health of the economy, according to George Goncalves, the head of interest-rate strategy at Nomura Holdings Inc., one of 22 dealers that are obliged to bid at Treasury auctions.

Lower for longer?

Sure, the U.S. is creating jobs, but a raft of disappointing indicators, from retail sales to manufacturing, suggests consumers are scaling back just as overseas demand weakens.

And wages are stagnating for many Americans. Since the recession ended, average hourly earnings have increased less than in any expansion since the 1960s. Without higher wages to spur spending, inflation has remained stubbornly low.

Price Pressures

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The auction data shows that U.S. funds targeted 30-year bonds -- those most vulnerable to rising growth and inflation -- the most among interest-bearing Treasuries. That comes as traders are pricing in the likelihood the inflation rate will remain below the Fed’s 2 percent goal over the coming decade.

Economists in a Bloomberg survey now see a 15 percent chance the U.S. will slide into a recession in the next 12 months, the highest estimate since 2013.

Investors in the U.S. “are making a decision based on their outlook and it’s a reflection of the economy as well as their risk aversion,” Nomura’s Goncalves said.

It also suggests the Fed policy makers may want to rethink their assumptions about the need to raise interest rates any time soon. While Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said she still sees the economy growing enough for the central bank to raise rates by year-end, traders are skeptical. They see only a 32 percent chance of a rate increase by December, while the odds of a March rise are at little more than a coin flip.

Some Fed officials are coming around to that view. Governors Lael Brainard and Daniel Tarullo both indicated this month the Fed should wait until clearer signs of inflation emerge.

“There’s no pressing reason for the Fed to hike rates and there are clear risks against a global backdrop that’s so fragile,” said Robert Tipp, the chief investment strategist at Prudential Financial’s fixed-income unit, which oversees $533 billion.

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Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &

regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.

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