new concepts to prevent excursions or the consequences of … · 2017. 5. 8. · fp8 project «...

New concepts to prevent excursions or the consequences of excursions Frédéric BARBARESCO – THALES AIR SYSTEMS FP8 Future Sky Safety Project / WP3.4 Technical Manager

12 avril 2016 SAFETY | FUTURE SKY

European Ac,on Plan

→  “European Ac,on Plan for the Preven,on of Runway Excursions” Report (31/01/2013)

→ Changing Runway Condi.ons: → If the runway surface becomes contaminated, it is important

that the aerodrome operator has a process for promptly assessing or measuring the amount of contamina.on, or the opera.onal surface fric.on.

→ This task should be undertaken at any ,me there is a change in the nature of the contamina,on – e.g. depth or type of contaminant.

→ Informa.on to be transmi;ed: → The informa,on to be transmiNed to the flight crew includes:

→ The runway condi,on code for each third of the runway → The type and depth of the contaminant and percentage of coverage in 25% increments

→ The PIREPs (Pilot braking ac,on report) when available 12 avril 2016 SAFETY | FUTURE SKY 2

Update Rate/Accuracy/Forecast

Adapted Update Rate of Runway Surface

Condi5ons

Accurate Wind Informa5on along the runway and touchdown zones

New processes to provide weather/wind/runway surface condi5ons

12 avril 2016 SAFETY | FUTURE SKY 3

Compliance of the actual weather condi5ons and past condi5ons used for braking performance assessment

WP3.4.1 Inventory of current developments and new ini,a,ves

12 avril 2016 SAFETY | FUTURE SKY

D3.1 Deliverables → Title: Inventory of current

developments and new ini,a,ves → 70 pages → Contributors:

→  BECHENNEC T. (THALES AVIONICS) →  MAYOLLE M. (AIRBUS F) →  VECHTEL D. (DLR) →  LARROUTUROU B. (ZODIAC) →  BARBARESCO F. (THALES AIR SYSTEMS)

12 avril 2016 5 SAFETY | FUTURE SKY

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Weather and Airfield condi,on repor,ng Weather and airfield condi,on repor,ng are mainly provided by: →  Sensors: X-‐band Radar and Lidar (not yet available on all airports

but requested by ICAO for Wind-‐Shear and Wake-‐Vortex) →  High Resolu.on Weather Forecast Models (Resolu,on should be

improved un,l 500 m: AROME AIRPORT of Meteo-‐France) → Mode-‐S Downlink (available on almost main european countries;

could be replaced by ADS-‐B downlink of MET data)

12 avril 2016 8 SAFETY | FUTURE SKY

Lidar

Radar

WIND Assessment →  Other parameters could be assessed for runway excursion

→  EDR (Eddy Dissipa.on Rate) => for Landing veeroff

ICAO EDR Levels with respect to: •  Peak EDR value •  Average EDR value

Peak EDR value

Average ED

R value

(m2/3 s-‐1) <0.1 0.1 -‐ 0.2

0.2 -‐ 0.3

0.3 -‐ 0.4

0.4 -‐ 0.5

0.5 -‐ 0.8 >0.8 Nil

report <0.1 0 1 3 6 10 15 21 0.1 -‐ 0.2 2 4 7 11 16 22 0.2 -‐ 0.3 5 8 12 17 23 0.3 -‐ 0.4 9 13 18 24 0.4 -‐ 0.5 14 19 25 0.5 -‐ 0.8 20 26 >0.8 27 Nil report 28

When strong wind pass over a large obstacle they create turbulence

When the earths surface is heated by the sun, it will generate convec,ve EDR

EDR1/3 (m2/3.s-1)averaged over 10 mn, no error terms17-Apr-2014... : EDR1/3

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Accurate, predicted Stopping Distance and exit now available for use by AMAN/DMAN and ASMGCS

Airborne and Ground Systems share identical data

20 -30 mins prior to landing:

•! Uplink of Predicted Runway Surface Conditions in 30 mins

•! Downlink of Stopping distance

•! Selection of Exit Taxiway

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FOR AIRCRAFT NON EQUIPED WITH OPTIMIZED BRAKING SYSTEMS, STOPPING DISTANCE COULD BE COMPUTED BY GROUND SYSTEM

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Runway Contaminant Prediction & Wind along Runway (feasibility study)

Cumulative Rain 30 minutes prior before landing •! Rain Rate Retrieval around the airport

•! Radar covering Airport Area •! Water Level probes if installed on runways •! Rain gauges data deployed around the airport

•! Cumulated Rain Forecasting •! Cumulative Forecast Rainfall based on data in 1 minute increments

for periods up to 30 minutess /1 hour ahead •! Forecast reliability by the supply of data from rain gauges/ Water

level probes (calibration)

•! Runway Contaminant Forecasting (usability of STAC Water Depth Prediction model)

•! 3D map of Runway defined by Laser scanning instrument •! Run-off model based on cumulate rain and runway slope

Wind Monitoring for the last 100 m in altitude •! X-band Radar Data from Météo-France •! Vertical Wind Profiler from Leosphere •! Anemometers mast along the runway

Cumulative Rainfall Forecast for 30 mn Ahead

Probes/Sensors ingested Prediction System


16

Cumulate Rain Prediction for the next 30 minutes

Sequence of Weather Radar Rain Clouds Forecasting For the next 30 minutes and Current Image

17

Sequence of Weather Radar Rain Clouds Forecasting For the next 30 minutes and Image 30 minutes after

Rain Clouds Forecasting For the next 30 minutes and Current Image

Cumulate Rain Prediction for the next 30 minutes

Collaboration with METEO-France: Use of « Lame d’eau » Data Product (Cumulate Rain for the next 30 minutes

Radar Rain Rate better spatial coverage & accuracy than rain gauges network

Airport X-band Radar (CDG & Nice)


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Sum of hourly Cumulate Gauge Rain rate for time t on Dp

Sum of hourly Cumulate Gauge Rain rate for time t for pixel matched with Rain Gauge

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Correction of Radar data with Rain gauges data

•  Spatial Resolution: 500 m (objective: 250 m for airport)

•  Development of probabilistic model: error associated to cumulate Rain rate

•  Quality analysis: to be indexed with the statistical error.


LEOPARD Project of Météo-France (weather X-band Radar for CDG Airport)

Operational Product at CDG: - Wind on 15 km/80 km at elevation 3°

- dBZ on 15 km/80 km at elevation 3°

- Windshear on runway at elevation 3°

- Vertical Profil of Wind along runway :

(5 km long x 4 km Altitude)


DGAC/STAC Contribution Method


Cross fall

Long. slope

Macrotexture

Rutting

Numerical

map

Water accumulation areas

Rain intensity

Water depth Water accumulation areas

Numerical Numerical

Water accumulation areas

map map

Water accumulation areas Water depth

Wet? Slippery wet?

Wet? Standing water?

Ground Runway Excursion Alert & Warning System (Safety) Analytics Tool to extract Pattern for Ground Runway Overrun Awareness & Alerting Systems Description •  The objective is first to consolidate THALES database on Runway information for CDG

Airport: •  Air Traffic Data (Landing final speed & trajectories, wheels ON time, braking distance); •  Aircraft/Flight Data (weight, span, …); •  Runway Data (layout, Exit positions, contaminant, friction coefficient,…); •  Weather Data;

•  THALES will develop Analytics tool to extract Patterns of inter-correlations between these elements: Braking Distance and Runway Exit indexed by

•  aircraft weight, •  wheel ON point, •  head wind and runway contaminant, •  aircraft characteristics


Data Analysis

DEEP LEARNING

Data AnalysisData Analysis

Air Traffic Data

Aircraft/ Flight Data

Runway Data

Weather Data

Contaminant Data

Correlation Tables

Model Fitting

Look-Up Tables

Data Filtering

Runway Exits Management

Decision Support System (Capacity)

Real Time Data

Stream

Ground Runway Excursion

Alert & Warning System (Safety)

Machine Learning (Pattern Discovery) Predictive (Forecasting, Rules) Prescriptive (Simulation, What-If) Descriptive (Statistics, Historical) Reporting (Scoreboard, Metrics) Handling (Visualization, Display)


Data Correlation Analysis Interdependencies and models could be elaborated based on big data analytics •! Air Traffic Data (Landing& Take-Off speed & trajectories,!) •! Aircraft/Flight Data (weight, span, !) •! Runway Data (layout, Exit positions, contaminant, cross fall, long.slope,

macrotexture, rutting, friction coefficient,!) •! Weather Data (from Met Office, Radar/Lidar Sensors)


Weather Data (from Met Office, Radar/

Momentum (speed x Weight) versus ROT

Probability of ROT per

aircraft type

THALES BIG DATA BASE @ CDG AIRPORT

Existing Data-base (SESAR P12.2.2), Paris-CDG Airport (6 months recording) •! 10000 aircrafts recorded on CDG North-West Closely spaced parallel runway •! SQL Structured Database mixing and correlating:

•! Traffic data (ADS-B, Mode-S) •! Flight Data (aircraft code, aircraft type, aircraft weight MLW,!) •! Weather Data (Météo-France CDM 95)

Database Future Extension: •! FP8 Project « Future Sky Safety: Runway Excursion »

•! Head/Tail/Cross Wind and EDR (Eddy Dissipation Rate) along runway -! Rain Rate and Runway contaminant (radar rain rate/run-off model calibrated with Water-Level

gauge) -! Braking distance (Braking deceleration, speed at wheel-on)


Braking distance (Braking deceleration, speed at wheel-on)

12 avril 2016SAFETY | FUTURE SKY

Update of CDG Data base Data Base -! 26924 flight have been recorded -! 7936 flights in rainy conditions


Predictive Braking Distance & Exit Taxiway

Runway Exits


x (m)

y (m

)

FDX5238 A3062015-09-11 16:11:17

-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

Tim

e (s

)

0

50

100

150

200ROT : 53.20 sec


x (m)

y (m

)

MSR799 A3332015-09-11 12:21:34

-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

Tim

e (s

)

0

100

200

300

400ROT : 28.60 sec

x (m)

y (m

)

FDX5011 B77L2015-09-12 18:24:34

-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

Tim

e (s

)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350ROT : 54.50 sec

x (m)

y (m

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AFR1045 A3192015-09-13 16:37:31

-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

Tim

e (s

)

0

20

40

60

80

100ROT : 37.50 sec

x (m)

y (m

)

EZY93HP A3202015-09-02 12:19:36

-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

Tim

e (s

)

0

50

100

150

200ROT : 28.90 sec

x (m)

y (m

)

ICE542 B7522015-09-11 11:21:31

-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000-2000

-1000

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1000

2000

Tim

e (s

)

0

100

200

300

400

500ROT : 36.20 sec

x (m)

y (m

)

SWR60W F1002015-09-13 15:51:51

-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000-2000

-1000

0

1000

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Tim

e (s

)

50

100

150

200ROT : -46.70 sec

x (m)

y (m

)

AFR185 A3882015-08-30 03:47:55

-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

Tim

e (s

)

0

50

100

150ROT : 31.45 sec

Estimation of Runway Occupancy Time

(and soon of Braking distance)

THALES AVIONICS •! To develop a prototype that provides to the pilot all information for approach phase preparation (predictive mode >

1500 feet) •! The activities will be shared as follows:

•! Identify existing solutions which improve runway overrun systems based on runway contaminant detection automatically transferred to the aircraft.

•! Define the feasibility of a global solution, based on ground/on board systems collaboration, for an improved runway overrun protection

•! In coordination with ground system, develop an application to: •! Improve pilot awareness of runway contaminant (with 30 min predictions) on a tablet •! Integrate the application on PC environment (no integration within The Link environment)

29

Landing assessment

29

Short final: ROAAS alert for go-around

On Runway: ROAAS alert for deceleration

Propose assessment of the estimated braking condition ot better anticipate potential alerting from the ROAAS safety net.

Technical solution : The solution simulates onboard use of destination runway friction information reported by ATC It is based on : •  Predictive solution hosted on an EFB tablet connected to avionics system :

•  Approach parameters coming from FMS (ground speed, weight, etc…) •  Meteorological parameters of destination airport coming from weather

system •  Runway friction parameters

Flight crew performs a verification of landing capability before TOD on EFB tablet which presents the forecast runway contaminant (30 minutes prediction)

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THALES AVIONICS Landing assessment

SAFETY | FUTURE SKY

http://www.futuresky.eu/projects/safety

new concepts to prevent excursions or the consequences of … · 2017. 5. 8. · fp8 project «...

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