new connected countryside - new westminster · big economic impact for every one percentage point...
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Norman Jacknis ICF Senior Fellow
March 31, 2015
The New New Westminster — Ready For The Future
Building The Community Of The 21st Century
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What Is The Intelligent Community Forum?
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ICF Is A Global Network
ICF is the global organization that brings together the visionary leaders who make high speed Internet and technology an integral part of their community building
Together, they pursue joint development
Organized more than 15 years ago, now with more than 125 communities around the world
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ICF Is Also A Think Tank
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Community Accelerator
We study how communities use ICT to build economic prosperity, solve social challenges and enrich their cultures.
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Success Factors For The Intelligent Community
Why are some communities more intelligent and successful than others? the power of effective leadership
flexible and creative collaboration
a focus on long-term sustainability.
Community development faces obstacles –economic, social, political and cultural – and every successful community has found ways to overcome the ones that stand between them and a better future
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Key Indicators For The Intelligent Community
The key facets of community development based on information and communications technology: high speed Internet
knowledge workforce development
innovation
digital inclusion and
marketing & advocacy
And how these interact to create a virtuous cycle powering economic growth, citizen engagement and social health of the community
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Some Big Questions To Think About
How can a city of fewer than 70,000 stand out in a world of 7,000,000,000 people?
How can we build a high quality of life by intelligently responding to the trends that will affect all of us in the future?
How can we expand our thinking about our options?March 31, 2015 © 2015 Norman Jacknis, Senior Fellow, ICF. All rights reserved 8
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Why Think About The Future Today? “A good hockey player plays where the puck is ... a great
player plays where the puck will be.” ― Wayne Gretzky
“If the rate of change on the outside exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is near.” ― Jack Welch, former CEO, General Electric
"We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” ― Roy Amara, past president of The Institute for the Future
“The future is already here. It's just not very evenly distributed.” ― William Gibson, sci-fi novelist and coiner of “cyberspace”
Laying a foundation for a flourishing future takes time.
There are important things to do today to start.March 31, 2015 © 2015 Norman Jacknis, Senior Fellow, ICF. All rights reserved 9
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Economic Trends
How Did We Get Where We Are Today?
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What Leads To Economic Growth?
Specialization of the skills of people so everyone is producing the most for society
Creation of new knowledge and innovations
Which results in new products/services or enhances productivity in producing existing products/services
These, in turn, depend upon communications and collaboration among many, diverse people
In the 20th century age of industry, cities put many people in close proximity which enabled better communications and collaboration
Which made cities the engines of economic growth
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Urban Areas Became Engines Of Wealth
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Urban areas increased physical
proximity between people
Urban areas had the large
number of workers who were required
in factories
With many people close to
each other, it was easier to exchange
goods/services and innovations
Which increased specialized skills and innovations
that created more wealth
Which brought more people to
the area
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Business Clusters Developed
The major movie studios locate near each other in Hollywood, 1922
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Economic Trends
But Things Are Changing
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The Study Of Economic Geography Led To Cluster Policies, But …
Princeton University Economics Professor Paul Krugman won the 2008 Nobel Prize for identifying the “new economic geography” (aka cluster theory) some 20-30 years earlier
But in his acceptance speech, he noted changes: “[Clustering] may describe forces that are waning rather
than gathering strength. “
“The data accord with common perception: many of the traditional localizations of industry have declined (think of the Akron rubber industry), and those that have arisen, such as Silicon Valley, don’t seem comparable in scale.”
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“Cluster Requiem And The Rise Of Cumulative Growth Theory” 2009 research at the University of North Carolina that
tracked the growth and survival of a cohort of more than 300,000 establishments operating in Pennsylvania from 1997-2007 “Industry cluster theory has … an inability to explain
economic dispersion and the presence of high-growing firms that thrive in non-clustered industries and locations.”
“Firm characteristics are 10-times more powerful than industry and cluster characteristics, and 50-times more powerful than location characteristics, in explaining and predicting establishment-level growth and survival”
A sub-set of businesses systematically accumulate a disproportionate share of employment growth. Roughly 1% of establishments created 169% of all net new jobs added in the state over a ten-year period
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Business clusters could be less relevant as drivers of innovation than has been commonly assumed. The Stavanger Centre for Innovation Research analysed 1,600 companies with more than 10 employees located in the five largest Norwegian city-regions. Rather than national clusters, international cooperation or “global pipelines” were identified as the main drivers of innovation.
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“If I can make it in New York, I'll make it anywhere”
“Today, 36 percent of daily trades in stocks that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange are actually executed on the exchange, down from about 75 percent nearly four years ago. The rest of are conducted elsewhere, on new electronic exchanges … half of the jobs there have disappeared over the last five years …
“Unlike the Big Board, the new electronic exchanges are virtually unknown outside financial circles. Direct Edge, the largest, is in Jersey City. Another, the BATS Exchange, is based in Lenexa, Kan [picture above]. Both are only about five years old. But each now accounts for about a 10th of daily United States stock trading. “ − October 15, 2009 New York Times Front News Page
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Wall Street, New York, New York, USA
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Lenexa, Kansas, USA
March 31, 2015 © 2015 Norman Jacknis, Senior Fellow, ICF. All rights reserved
Downtown Lenexa
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Even Manufacturing Is Being Decentralized By 3D Printing
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Economic Trends
Making A Living By Providing Services & Intangible Products
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One Hundred Year Shift In The USA
March 31, 2015 © 2015 Norman Jacknis, Senior Fellow, ICF. All rights reserved
Thousands of employees and percent of total
Employment 1900
Employment 2000
Percent 1900 Percent 2000
Agriculture 11,680 3,281 43.5 2.4
Goods 7,252 25,710 27.0 18.8
Services 6,832 85,370 25.4 62.5
Government 1,094 22,131 4.1 16.2
Total 26,858 136,492 100.0 100.0
71%
79%
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In Europe
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And Canada
“Since the 1970s the Canadian economy has been transformed from one based on industry and mining to one dominated by the service sector. …
“Services account for 66 percent of the nation's economy and employ 74 percent of the country's workforce. Of Canada's skilled workers, 80 percent are employed by the service sector.”— Encyclopedia of the Nations/Canada
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At The Apex Of The Industrial Era, The Factory Concentrated Jobs
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In The Service Economy, Office Towers Are Supposed To Do The Same
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But Where Did All The Office Workers Go?
“Jones Lang LaSalle changes the current rule of thumb concerning office space per employee, shrinking it from 200 sq. ft. per employee to just 50 sq. ft. by 2015.”
“40% of IBM employees work from a location other than an office at IBM.”
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Why Is This Happening?
High Speed Internet Makes A Difference
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A Communications Network Revolution In The Home
Even more than business, people at home are driving technology innovations
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Business Support Services BecomeAccessible Around The GlobeBusiness support services have become within reach of people in more locations than in the past … Between any other part of the globe and people here
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High Speed Internet Has Had A Big Economic Impact
For every one percentage point increase in broadband penetration in a state, employment is projected to increase by 0.2 to 0.3 percent per year.
— Brookings Institution
“The increase in local GDP is more than ten-fold the value of the investments in broadband infrastructure. “
— SNG
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Numbers That Tell The Story
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of economic growth in developed economies came from the Internet over past 15 years
21%
For every job the Internet makes obsolete, it has created 2.6 more
the productivity gain – doing more with the same resources –the Internet provides the average small-to-midsize business
10%
Small-to-midsize businesses that are heavy users of the Internet grow
2x faster
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The Impact Is Not All Being Measured
“[GDP] almost inevitably misses some economic
gains from new technologies.”
“these statistics do not tell the whole story. Because
they miss much of what technology does for people’s
well-being.”
“G.D.P. is not a measure of how much value is
produced for consumers”
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“Well-connected cities, regardless of their size, are more likely to develop robust regional economies”
“A city that can draw on the resources of the whole world through extensive network connections to other cities, whether it is a metropolis or a hamlet, is likely to thrive.”
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Economic Trends
The Game Is Changing
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The Game Starts Anew In This Century
There is now an unprecedented opportunity for small cities
Often they have the agility to take advantage of the new opportunities before the bigger cities can
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Cities put people in close proximity that led to collaboration, innovation and growth – cities as center of production
Physical proximity is no longer the only way for people to collaborate & innovate – cities are now more centers of living than centers of production
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20th Century Industrial Economy
21st Century Digital Economy
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The “bigger the city, the better” and quality of life was traded off for sake of growth
Quality of life is now an integral part of the city’s economic strategy
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20th Century Industrial Economy
21st Century Digital Economy
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Work was tied to an office, factory, store and employees were not mobile
Work goes to people and they are more able to move where they wish
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20th Century Industrial Economy
21st Century Digital Economy
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Big companies concentrated employment
Big companies are more disaggregated:
Global supply chains & outsourcing
Contractors instead of employees
Global presence instead of one main location
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20th Century Industrial Economy
21st Century Digital Economy
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Economic Hunting strategy, including the use of incentives to big companies to move jobs
Economic Gardening strategy to develop local companies instead of ever weakening incentives to attract outsiders
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20th Century Industrial Economy
21st Century Digital Economy
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Big organizations provided the connections people needed to collaborate on a massive scale
The Internet makes it possible for people to collaborate on a global scale
From Coase’s Theory of the Firm (1937) to Shirky’s “Here Comes Everybody: The Power of Organizing Without Organizations” (2008)
The individual (and fluid teams) become the key economic actors
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20th Century Industrial Economy
21st Century Digital Economy
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To make a decent living, you had a 9-5 job in a big company for life
People will need a portfolio of ways to earn a living
And they won’t be on a fixed time clock
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20th Century Industrial Economy
21st Century Digital Economy
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High Speed Internet Internet Trends
Visual Communications Intensifies The Effects
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Non-Verbal Communications 93% of communication is nonverbal
Especially critical in establishing trust between people
“Seeing Is Believing”
We process visual information 60,000 times faster than text
Mehrabian's communications research 7% of message pertaining to feelings and
attitudes is in the words that are spoken. 38% of message pertaining to feelings and
attitudes is paralinguistic (the way that the words are said).
55% of message pertaining to feelings and attitudes is in facial expression.
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Corporate Video-Conferencing Is Rapidly Increasing
Within the next couple of years, about two thirds of businesses will have adopted some kind of telepresence solution
– Forrester
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But We Are Only In The Early Stages Of The Internet’s Development
Not yet today, but by 2030 — A world of high quality visual communication and easy collaboration everywhere, enabling anyone anywhere to virtually meet anyone else anywhere else
… for a flavor of what the future might bring
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The Black Eyed Peas in France
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It’s Getting More Like Being There
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And More
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Economic Trends
Re-Thinking Your Economic Strategy
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This Is The Key Question For Economic Strategy In Future Decades
March 31, 2015 © 2015 Norman Jacknis, Senior Fellow, ICF. All rights reserved
When most people can work anywhere, where will they choose to live & work?
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How Would You Measure A City’sEconomic Success In 2030?
The total revenues of companies that might happen to have an address in the city?
The number of 9-5 jobs in those companies?
Office buildings in “downtown”, but a per capita income of $40,000 per year?
The amount of income and wealth of the city’s residents?Whether or not that income comes from 9-5 jobs in a big company or from royalties on inventions or from a dozen freelance contracts with companies of varying size
No office buildings, but a per capita income of $100,000 per year?
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High Speed Internet Is Necessary,But Not Sufficient
ICF communities have learned that deploying high speed Internet itself will not be transformational
It may not even be adopted by many of the people who could obtain high speed Internet
High speed Internet can enable and must be tied in with all the other aspects of community development
What can high speed Internet make possible? …
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What Does High Speed Internet Make Possible?
A Platform For Lifelong Learning That Will Increase People’s Income Potential
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Students Mentoring Students
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Long Distance Music Lessons
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edX
March 31, 2015 © 2015 Norman Jacknis, Senior Fellow, ICF. All rights reserved
• EdX is available to anyone in the world with an internet connection
• Online learners who demonstrate mastery earn a certificate of completion, issued by the "X University" from where the course originated, i.e., HarvardX, MITxor BerkeleyX
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Coursera
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Udacity
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University Of The Third Age
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Digital Public Library of America
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Public Libraries Are A Cost-Effective Guide To Global Innovation The libraries should be tasked to organize the vast
amount of free training and courses online in a range of subjects from business knowledge to technical skills
The public library should be the corporate librarian for entrepreneurs and other innovators
Helping to conduct market research, identify opportunities…
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ChattanoogaPublic Library
4th Floor
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What Does High Speed Internet Make Possible?
Connecting Residents To Global Economic Opportunities & Business Services
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Help Local Enterprises Reach Beyond The Local Area
Consider health care, as an example
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Health Maintenance For Chronic Diseases
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Health Maintenance For Seniors Who Are Generally Healthy
Vermont Telecare for Rural Health Project
• Two-way interactive exercise class for seniors.
• "We know that exercise is helpful for senior patients, but we can't get to them. And we know that Tai Chi helps keep seniors healthy, increases their well-being and balance.“
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Remote Diagnosis
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Remote Consultation
Health Presence allows patients to remotely connect with doctors and clinicians for an encounter that rivals a face-to-face meeting
Use in psychological counseling
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Robotic Surgery
Becomes remote surgeryMarch 31, 2015 © 2015 Norman Jacknis, Senior Fellow, ICF. All rights reserved 79
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Connect Entrepreneurs To The World’s Best Sources Of Business Services
The hidden secret of Silicon Valley
In a networked world, business services to support entrepreneurs & innovators become much more widely available
So entrepreneurs access to high quality videoconferencing and collaboration platforms
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Connect Entrepreneurs To The Flow Of Capital
Capital is flowing more freely around the globe
Make sure your entrepreneurs are connected to these sources of funds Beware of old
fashioned investors
Consider new forms of investment
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An Entrepreneurial Extension Service Many small businesses need help in learning about
innovations and techniques which will help them succeed in the global, networked economy
Now help can be in person and on the Internet, in part, by recent college graduates
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Even Connect Low-Tech Business To The Global Economy
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What Does High Speed Internet Make Possible?
Connecting People To Open Innovation
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Innovation Is The Competitive Edge In The 21St Century Economy
But how does innovation happen in a networked world?
Does open innovation provide new opportunities?
What kind of innovation makes the biggest difference?
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Innovation Is A Collaborative Act“Creativity is not a solitary endeavor.”
– Ed Catmull, CEO, Pixar
"The secret to creativity is knowing how to hide your sources.”
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17th Century Coffee Houses As Hubs Of Innovation …
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In This Century … People with new ideas
no longer need to meet in coffee houses
They can innovate and collaborate and share knowledge on the Internet
The old “liquid network” of coffee house discussions is now the global communications network
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Why Would A Company Want Open Innovation?
“P&G employs 7,500 people in its R&D division, but there are 1.5 million scientists throughout the world with expertise in P&G’s areas of interest.” — Larry Huston, Procter & Gamble’s former VP of R&D
“More than 50% of P&G innovation comes from external companies of all sizes and from individual entrepreneurs too.”
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Opportunities In The Open Innovation Movement
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Don’t Forget About Senior Citizens
“Creativity can be divided into these types -- conceptual and experimental”
The share of entrepreneurs in the 55-64 age group jumped from 14.3 percent in 1996 to 23.4 percent in 2012
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Research At Great Universities Is Available In Cities Everywhere
Many public leaders are trying to recreate Stanford, MIT, Princeton and the like in their areas
And they are trying to find some secret way of “commercializing” the research at their local universities
You can start with what you have now
The best university research all of the world is available through the Internet
Entrepreneurs already have the skills to commercialize research, as long as they can find that research
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Two Kinds Of Innovation Yield Different Results
Sustaining innovation
Disruptive Innovation Create a way that gets the
customer’s need served in a way that is not necessarily perfect, but is lower priced than the alternatives …
or where there isn’t any alternative at all – compete against “non-consumption”
Don’t spend too much money on any single innovation
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What Does This Mean For Your City?
Sustaining innovations are just normal business And usually mean there is less human work to do in order
to sustain the same level of production
Often happens at higher cost
Growth instead results from disruptive innovations Especially in unmet and, as yet, undiscovered needs
The new work is in these new disruptive innovations: health, education, entertaining experiences, etc., but not in mass produced products that we already know about
Accelerate disruptive innovation Which is what will help your economy grow fast
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Your City Should Support A Culture Of Innovation
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It’s Necessary To Accept Failures
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What Does High Speed Internet Make Possible?
Delight Residents & Visitors —Inspire Them To Be Creative
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Maker Spaces In Public Libraries
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Co-Working & “Hacker” Spaces
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Hotel Lobby: Unofficial Co-working Space
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An Unofficial Work Space Without Walls, But With Electric Outlets
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Inspiration Just Takes A Little Imagination
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Piano Stairs
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Physical/Virtual Collaboration
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Any Public Space Becomes An Urban Experience – Even Subways
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Video Walls You Touch And Control
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Combine The Street And The Screen
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Floors Can Be Interactive Displays
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Put Your History On The Wall Of A Library
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People Can Interact With Animations
A blend of live text message feeds and real-time animation for a train station wall
Seahorse courtship dance animation triggered by text message
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© Gotham Innovation Greenhouse 2014 all rights reserved
Time-Lapse Photography Brings Spring To Wintertime
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What Do You Do With An Old Building In London?
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Make It A Portal To Vienna
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Take A Wall
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And Pump It Up!
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Augmented Reality
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Urban Design Using Digital Experiences
The common theme of all these previous possibilities is that high speed Internet also enables you to blend the physical existing city with the new and digital
For new and delightful experiences
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Let’s Wrap It Up
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Be Visionary About Your City
High speed Internet opens up new possibilities for enhanced quality of life in cities
But high speed Internet and technology will only be widely adopted if combined with community building and vision
High speed Internet enables everyone to participate in creating a vibrant community
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Success Rests On Three Legs
High speed Internet and technology
A Vision for the community
The right culture and leadership so the community implements the vision
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The Transition To The Future Won’t Be Simple, But:
Plan for the future way that most people will earn a living
Shift some investments from the old approach to this new world
Build both physical/communications and human infrastructure
Offer a video, collaboration platform for innovation
Link individuals to a global ecosystem for dependable economic growth
Provide people a quality "experience” so they will stay
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Building The Community Of
The 21st CenturyDr. Norman Jacknis+1 (914) [email protected]: njacknis.tumblr.comTwitter: @NormanJacknis
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Thank You!
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