new frontiers in energy and water - lux research...
TRANSCRIPT
New Frontiers in Energy and Water
Brent Giles
Research Director
Lux Executive Summit Asia
October 21, 2015
Agenda
Energy and water are both traditional industries with large players that are typically slow to adopt new technologiesEnvironmental and technological disruptions have both industries confused and reacting to rapid changeBoth industries face fundamental shakeups that will permanently alter their landscapes
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Agenda: disruptions in energy
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Volatility and climate change drive the movement toward next generation energy
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11708-014-0303-04
Major disruptions in oil prices have become common, as this graph showing spikes in the standard deviation in oil price shows. Volatile energy prices force energy-intensive industries to operate conservatively and slow growth.
Technologies like fraccing diversify sources and stabilize prices
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Hydrofraccing in North America has twice been the victim of its own success: first after it drove down the price of natural gas in 2008, and, after drillers began focusing on liquids, it eventually contributed to a sharp drop in oil prices in 2014. Nevertheless, the industry continues to operate and will remain a vital component in the energy mix in the Americas and beyond.
Advances in traditional oil and gas: drilling and monitoring
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While oil and gas technology has traditionally focused on finding new resources, it is now increasingly applied to decreasing costs and increasing efficiency in drilling and production. A large number of startups seeking to automate key operations and improve process monitoring are working in the space.
Hydrogen economy?
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Hydrogen economy: a moon shot
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Electric vehicles become an important part of the mix by 2025
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Lux projects that falling battery prices will make electric vehicles a significant portion of the fleet by 2025, though they won’t yet outcompete traditional vehicles in number.
Biofuels can change the game
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Cellulostic materials remain promising: steam explosion and dilute acid techniques lead the way
Biofuels can change the game
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Cellulostic materials to renewable diesel and jet fuels
Has diversified from palm oil to waste oils to produce renewable diesel
Gas hydrates resources surround every continent, if they can be accessed
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Adapted from USGS
Gas hydrates confirmedGas hydrates expected
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2040
Tota
l pro
duct
ion,
Bm
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Japan Korea India China Rest of world
Projected hydrate production
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2013 Japanese gas consumption
Agenda: disruptions in the water space
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Water is poised for a shakeup
15Likelihood
Impa
ct
Water crisesWeapons of mass destruction
Water is a $600 billion industry that enjoys good profitability
The current industry faces accelerating change in what is traditionally a conservative marketplace
It’s not just drought: extreme storm events are increasing as well
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Change in frequency of extreme storm events, 1948 to 2011
New EnglandExtreme storms now occur 85% more frequently
Distributed stormwater treatment
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Treating large volumes of stormwater in centralized facilities is expensive and hazardous, risking release of raw sewage
Distributed treatment, combined with advances like permeable surfaces and rainwater capture, provide a way forward.
The Energy Water nexus: drinking water and wastewater converge
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0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
500%
Activatedsludge
BioGill AquaCell Baswood Sabre Aquarius
EnergyconsumptionSludge production
Minimum footprint
Number of staff
Operating cost
Wastewater treatment has always been energy intensive, with advances such as anaerobic digestion reducing the cost somewhat
Producing drinking water from seawater is far more energy intensive than direct reuse of filtered wastewater
-0.2
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1.3
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1972 1982 1992 2002 2012
Cost
of d
esal
inat
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$/m
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Capex Electricity Maintenance
Desalination cost trends
Monitoring and control are the future for infrastructure
Worldwide, one third of drinking water is lost due to faulty infrastructure
A 100-year-old pipe may fail in only one short section. Repairing it economically depends on pinpointing the leak.
“Trenchless” repairs are now common. Finding the area in greatest need of repair is key.
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Computer mgmt/asset awarenessAutomated
inspection
Pig inspection
Ultrasound
Eddy-current EM probe
CCTV
Lidar
Thermal
Tracer gas
RFTC Acoustic
Chemical detection
Smart metersPressure maintenance
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3
5
1 3 5
Tech
nica
l Val
ue
Maturity
Future winners
Long-shot
Current winners
Incumbent
Future winners
Long-shot
Current winners
Incumbent
Clamp repairPipe
replacement
CIPP, wwCIPP, dw
Sliplining
Pipebursting
SIPP, wwSIPP, dw
Robotic local repair
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3
5
1 3 5
Tech
nica
l Val
ue
Maturity
Future winners
Long-shot
Current winners
Incumbent
Future winners
Long-shot
Current winners
Incumbent
Future winners
Long-shot
Current winners
Incumbent
Future winners
Long-shot
Current winners
Incumbent
New agricultural demands for water: supporting the rapidly growing aquaculture sector
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Demand for seafood is growing at 10% per year, but wild capture has been flat since 1989
Aquaculture is growing at 8.3% annually
The fastest growing portions are sophisticated recirculating farms that require constant monitoring and aggressive water treatment
If better desalination membranes aren’t the answer, what good are next-generation membranes?
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Antibiotics“Porins of multidrug resistant bacteria are often impermeable to antibiotics and could
thus be used to remove them from wastewater.”
Biomolecular fishing “…the cost of the ligand is the main
impediment to the widespread application of immuno-ultrafiltration or affinity
ultrafiltration. Aptamers could be one of the keys to breaking this powerful catch-22.”
Sugars separation“Lectins may be able to separate sugars such
as known plant-based sweeteners and compounds with important pharmacological
activity.”
Replacing affinity chromatography
“The packing density of hollow fiber membranes rivals the specific surface area of
chromatographic beads. The bonds can be broken without the use of chemicals simply by
back-flushing.”
Quotes adapted from J Chem Technol Biotechnol 89 (2014) 354-371.
Increasing membrane flux by 300% would only improve seawater desalination plant performance by 10%. Still, some next generation membranes will find important uses replacing thermal and other energy- and water-intensive traditional processes in industry.
Lux Competitive Benchmark: looking at large water companies
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Technology is still applied unevenly in water, even by major companies in the space.
Lux Competitive Benchmark: Water innovation often lags behind other industries
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Even major companies in the space often invest relatively little in next generation technologies, and some are wedded to declining industries such as pulp and paper. High tech solutions can change the space.
Basic materials End-user facing services
Conclusions
Energy will become increasingly diversified
“Green” energies can expect competition not only from more efficient oil and gas operators but from other green energies
Water issues present a significant threat to populations and industries
The water space is diverse and increasingly needs new ideas and new technology
Key drivers in water include infrastructure repair and monitoring, fresh water supply, reduced energy demand for desalination and wastewater treatment, and support for new industrial processes
These two traditional industries are facing historic shakeups from technology and environmental pressures
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Thank you
Brent GilesResearch Director [email protected]+1 917 484 4878