new industrial revolution and implictations for automobile industry
TRANSCRIPT
Navigating the New Industrial Revolution(s)
---Implications for the Automobile Industry
Professor Robin Teigland Stockholm School of Economics
www.slideshare.net/[email protected]
@RobinTeiglandNovember 2016
ExploitationImproving
existing value creation activities
ExplorationDeveloping new value creation activities
Adapted from March 1991
From resource control to resource orchestration
From internal optimization to external interaction
From customer value to ecosystem value
Some fundamental shifts…
2016 Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
2015
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next
ten.”
- Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996
Food deliveries
Valuecreation
People• “Net generation”• 24x7 “mobile” workforce• Knowledge via MOOCs• Sharing not owning• Sustainability• Gigs and not jobs
Technology • Broadband• Smart phones• Cloud• Internet of Things • Big Data• Cognitive computing• 3D printing• Robotics/AI• VR/AR/ Holography
Open Source IP• Software • Hardware• Physibles
Convergence of…..
Finance• Microlending/microfinance • Crowdfunding/equity/P2P• Cryptocurrencies• Blockchains• Mobile money/payments • M2M payments
New technologies enable new entrants
As does crowdfunding
Elio Motors becoming a reality
http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
• Launched June 2010• 519 cities in >68 countries
• Limited physical assets• 7000 employees
• USD 62.5 bln valuation(BMW, 1916, 116,000 empl, USD 53
bln)
“Doing more with less” through a global platform
A system that activates the untapped value of all kinds of assets through
models and marketplaces that enable greater efficiency and access.
- Botsman
The Sharing Economy
Harvard Business Review, 2014
The Sharing Economy: Embracing Change with Cautionhttp://www.slideshare.net/eteigland/sharing-economy-webb
Changing consumer behaviors
http://www.slideshare.net/MarketRevolution/shsu-sharing-economy-collaborative-consumption
What if we share instead?
http://www.slideshare.net/MarketRevolution/shsu-sharing-economy-collaborative-consumption
Evolution of transportation
http://www.slideshare.net/MarketRevolution/shsu-sharing-economy-collaborative-consumption
In-house initiatives
Trading one job for a number of “gigs”…
All just
one click away!
Hoffice – a Swedish concept gone global
My first attempt at 3D printing – successful!
Global DIY microfactory networks enable circular economies
The automotive industry
Disruptions ......the likes of which the industry hasn’t seen since the
automated assembly line.
http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2015/01/auto-industry-innovation.html
FIRM YEAR FOUNDED NO. EMPLOYEES MKT CAP
BMW 1916 116,000 $53B
UBER 2009 7,000 $60B
MARRIOT 1927 200,000 $17B
AIRBNB 2008 5,000 $21B
WALT DISNEY 1923 185,000 $165B
FACEBOOK 2004 12,691 $315B
KODAK 1888 145,000 $30B (heyday)
INSTAGRAM 2010 13 $1B (acquisition)
2016 Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary
Something fundamental is changing
Pipeline – Traditional linear value chain
Supply-side economies of scale
Network EffectsValue rises as more people
use the platform Metcalfe’s Law
Platform-based business models
Community platform Hierarchical firmV
S
Ford~ Created by employees within
organizational boundaries
E.g., Local Motors~ Created by community collaborators regardless of affiliation
Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012
The Flipped Firm: New model of value creation?
Platforms enable ecosystems
Elia Giovacchini 2016
“Local Motors is the place for people to create influential vehicles together.”
• 100xs less capital cost • 5xs faster productionhttps://launchforth.io/explore/
http://www.3ders.org/articles/20160520-local-motors-unveils-3d-printed-strati-car-packed-with-autonomous-driving-iot-tech.html
Self-driving vehicle with IBM Watson
https://localmotors.com/posts/category/press-releases/
Local and mobile factories
Integrating offline and online communities Arizona
Washington DCTennesseeGermany
Converging technologies
3D printing Robot
Blockchain/AI
Drones/IoTSocial Robots
Darja Isaksson, Ziggy
Automated, fossil free, service-based
The Blockchain is the glue that is going to drive a productivity revolution across the globe on
par with what Henry Ford did with the automobile.
— Paul Brody, Americas Strategy Leader, Technology Sector, Ernst & Young
Increasing number of substitutes
Robot for you as virtual shopper
http://www.ehang.com/ehang184
Moving into the Internet?
O’Driscoll 2009
New forms of “face to face” meetings
Newton’s third law holds that every action has an equal and opposite
reaction.
In the same vein, every disruptive threat creates an equal, if not
greater, opportunity. http://www.innosight.com/innovation-resources/strategy-innovation/turning-ambiguity-into-opportunity-a-new-approach-to-strategy-under-uncertainty.cfm
All our knowledge is about the past, but all our strategic decisions are about the
future.
What we don’t know
we don’t know about the future
What we know
What we know we don’t know
So, how can we prepare for the future?
Looking into the future?
Forecast−How we think the future will be
Vision−How we want the future to be
Scenario−What the future can beScenarios: Memories from the future
????
ExploitationImproving
existing value creation activities
ExplorationDeveloping new value creation activities
Adapted from March 1991
From resource control to resource orchestration
From internal optimization to external interaction
From customer value to ecosystem value
Some fundamental shifts…
2016 Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary
Some tips…
1. Boundary spanner bridging diverse networks
2. Problem solver -> solution finder
3. What if? Breaking basic assumptions
Robin [email protected]
www.slideshare.net/[email protected]
If you love knowledge, set it free…
If you like this presentation and would like to contribute to our research, we accept bitcoins: 14hs4JbnQLXE87GGzu84uXGaspmxmnLpwC.Thank you!!!!!