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NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF LABORPROJECTIONS SYSTEM
IndustryProjections
OccupationalProjections
PopulationProjections
Labor ForceProjections
Labor ForceParticipation
Rates
IndustryEmployment
Series
NationalProjections
Industry /Occupation
Matrix
OESSurvey
CommutationRatios
Change - & SEUF -
Factors
VitalStatistics
CensusData
= EndProduct
Population and Labor Force Projections for New Jersey:
2006 to 2025
Population Projections
0.85%
1.24%
0.47%
0.94%
0.45%
0.97%
2000-2006
2000-2006
2006-2016
2006-2016
• New Jersey’s 2006-2016 population growth will continue to lag behind the nation as a whole.
Rate of Population Growth: 1990-2016
1990-2000
1990-2000
Population Projections
0.49%
0.85%
0.47% 0.45%
0.58%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
An
nu
ali
zed
Ra
te
1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2006 2006-2016 2016-2025
Rate of NJ Population Growth: 1980-2025
New Jersey’s total population is projected to increase by 0.45% per annum, on average, from 2006 to 2016. The state’s rate of population growth will be 0.58% per annum between 2016 and 2025.
Components of Population Change:New Jersey, 2000 to 2025
250,800
435,900
370,700
1,000
-36,900
118,400
2000-2006
2006-2016
2016-2025
Natural Increment Net Migration
Population Projections
Population Projections
• Population aged 18-39 and 55+ will grow substantially.
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2000-2006 2006-2016
NJ Population Change by Age
Under 5
5-17
18-39
40-54
55-69
70+
Population ProjectionsA
ge
New Jersey Population by Age: 2006 and 2016
2006 2016
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
5-9
15-19
25-29
35-39
45-49
55-59
65-69
75-79
85+
0200400600 200 400 600(Population in thousands)
Population Projections
1.2%
5.4%
32.6% 33.3%
29.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
White Black Other 2+Races Hispanic
NJ Population Growth by Race: 2006-2016
Hispanics, Multiracial and Other Races are projected to grow fast.
Population Projections
1990 2006 2016 2025
Non-Hispanic 90.3% 84.4% 81.0% 77.7%
White 73.9% 62.8% 57.1% 52.0%
Black 12.9% 13.3% 13.2% 12.9%
Others 3.6% 7.4% 9.4% 11.2%
2+ Races (N.A.) 1.0% 1.3% 1.6%
Hispanic 9.7% 15.6% 19.0% 22.3%
Other Races and Hispanics will increase their shares of the state’s total resident population.
Population Projections
• New Jersey’s sex ratio is projected to increase gradually as male population grow slightly faster than their female counterpart.
93.5
94.3
95.5
96.0
97.0
93.0
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
1990 2000 2006 2016 2025
New Jersey Sex Ratio: 1990 - 2025
Labor Force Projections
16.5%5.2%
9.5%
11.9%
6.0%4.6%
3.7%5.4%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
1980-1990
1990-2006
2006-2016
2016-2025
PopulationLabor Force
Growth of Population and Labor Force: New Jersey, 1980 - 2025
New Jersey’s civilian labor force is projected to grow faster than its population from 2006 to 2016 but not after 2016.
Labor Force Projections
• The “older workers” (labor force aged 55 and older) will grow faster than their younger counterparts.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2000-06 2006-16
NJ Labor Force Change by Age
16-24
25-39
40-54
55 & over
Labor Force Projections
2.2%
9.0%
32.5%
43.0%
27.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
White Black Other 2+Races Hispanic
NJ Labor Force Growth by Race: 2006-2016
Hispanics, Other Races and Multiracial labor forces are projected to grow fast.
In fact, the “other races” will account for 40% and 70% of the state’s total labor force growth in 2006-2016 and 2016-2025 periods, respectively.
Labor Force Projections
Hispanics will comprise the majority of the state’s labor force growth (70%) from 2006 to 2016. They will account for all the growth of New Jersey’s labor force between 2016 and 2025, as the no-Hispanic labor force is projected to decline somewhat.
Labor Force Projections
1990 2006 2016 2025
White 83.3% 77.6% 74.8% 72.1%
Black 12.9% 13.4% 13.8% 13.9%
Others 3.8% 8.0% 10.0% 12.2%
2+ Races (N.A.) 1.0% 1.4% 1.9%
Hispanic 9.1% 15.5% 18.6% 22.2%
Consequently, Other Races and Hispanics will increase their shares of the state’s total civilian labor force.
Thank You
Comments Welcomed
Prepared by:
New Jersey Department of Labor & Workforce Development
Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research
Contact: Sen-Yuan Wu (email: [email protected] tel. 609-292-0077)