new macroeconomic projections for spain 2020-2022 · 2020. 9. 22. · spain 2020-2022 Óscar arce...

DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND RESEARCH – BANCO DE ESPAÑA

MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR SPAIN 2020-2022

ÓSCAR ARCE

Director General Economics, Statistics and Research

Madrid

16 September 2020


1. Overview

2. Scenario description

3. Developments in economic activity in the short term

4. Scenarios for the Spanish economy in the period 2020-2022

5. Risks surrounding the scenarios

6. The macro impact of the Next Generation EU programme

CONTENTS

2USO INTERNO


1. Overview






CONTENTS

3USO INTERNO


Very sharp decline in activity in Q2 as a consequence of the impact of the health crisisand the containment measures.

Gradual recovery in Q3, with a loss of strength towards the end of the quarter.

Two scenarios are considered for activity developments:

1) Different assumptions regarding epidemiological developments

2) Marked fall in GDP in 2020 and subsequent recovery, with a high level of uncertainty

3) The return of activity to its normal level will be incomplete; at the end of 2022, activity will bebelow its pre-pandemic level.

The risks are on the downside in the coming quarters, linked to epidemiologicaldevelopments and the availability of an effective treatment and, also, to other risksstemming from the external environment.

Overall inflation has an upward profile until the beginning of 2021, and subsequentlystabilises, strongly influenced by the behaviour of energy, while core inflation risesvery moderately over the whole of the horizon.

4

VERY SEVERE CONTRACTION IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AS A CONSEQUENCE OF COVID-19

USO INTERNO


1. Overview






ÍNDICE

5USO INTERNO


• The availability of an effective medical solution from the second half of 2021 would allow any

containment measures in place at that time, the impact of which would be particularly

notable in the “social industries”, to be lifted.

• Despite the projected recovery, at the end of 2022, under both scenarios, the level of GDP

would be lower than before the pandemic.

• In both scenarios, the degree of uncertainty surrounding the development of the pandemic

and its impact on business and household incomes will continue to weigh on the spending

decisions of these agents in the coming quarters.

6

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS (I): COMMON ELEMENTS

USO INTERNO


SCENARIO 1:

• Similar epidemiological assumptions to those of the gradual recovery scenario of June:

emergence of fresh outbreaks, although only requiring containment measures of limited

scope, both from a geographical standpoint and in terms of the sectors affected, and

therefore causing relatively limited additional disruption to economic activity.

• The consequences of the containment measures are expected to directly affect sectors

linked to accommodation and food service activities and leisure (and, on the demand side,

tourism) and indirectly influence other productive sectors through spillover effects.

SCENARIO 2:

• More intense outbreaks and the return of more stringent confinement measures, particularly

affecting those services sectors where social interaction is a key element, and likewise

directly affecting other productive sectors.

• The result is a sharper and longer-lasting contractionary impact on activity.

• The availability of an effective medical solution would lead to an improvement in activity,

more markedly so under scenario 2, in keeping with the greater intensity of the outbreaks of

the pandemic until that time.

7

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS (II): DISTINGUISHING ELEMENTS

USO INTERNO


1. Overview






CONTENTS

8USO INTERNO

DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND RESEARCH – BANCO DE ESPAÑA USO INTERNO 9

MARKED DECLINE IN ACTIVITY IN Q2

GDP fell 18.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, the sharpest decline in the available time series since

1970.

This decline stands mid-range between “early recovery” and “gradual recovery”, the two scenarios

published in June.

The drop in activity was more marked than in the majority of European countries.

Sources: Banco de España (Q2 projection of the June Quarterly Report), INE (Quarterly National Accounts for Q1 and Q2), ECB and Office for National Statistics.

-18.5

-16.1

-2.3

-21.8

-18.8

-2.9

-16.0

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

GDP Domestic demand Net external demand

QNA

JUNE PROJECTION: GRADUAL RECOVERY

JUNE PROJECTION: EARLY RECOVERY

QUARTER-ON-QUARTER GDP GROWTH (%) AND CONTRIBUTIONS (pp)

-2.0%

-3.7%

-5.5% -5.9%-5.2%

-2.2%

-9.7%

-11.8%-12.8%

-13.8%

-18.5%

-20.4%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%2020 Q1 2020 Q2

GDP GROWTH. QUARTER-ON-QUARTER RATES


THE CONJUNCTURAL INDICATORS APPEAR TO SHOW AN INTERRUPTION IN AUGUST TO THE GRADUAL RECOVERY PATH THAT BEGAN IN MAY

10

Sources: ANFAC, INE, IHS Markit and European Commission. Latest observation: August (registrations, purchasing managers’ and confidence indices) and July (retail trade index).

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

15 16 17 18 19 20

RETAIL TRADE INDEX

Y-o-y rate of change, %

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

15 16 17 18 19 20

PRIVATE VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS

Y-o-y rate of change, %

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

2017 2018 2019 2020

ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR INDUSTRY SERVICES

CONFIDENCE INDICATORS (standardised)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2017 2018 2019 2020

COMPOSITE PMI MANUFACTURING PMI SERVICES PMI

PURCHASING MANAGERS' INDICES

points

DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND RESEARCH – BANCO DE ESPAÑA 11

SLOWDOWN IN THE ACTIVITY IMPROVEMENT DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS

The recovery path followed by high-frequency indicators slowed during the summer

months, broadly remaining below pre-crisis levels.

Sources: Sources: Google and Atlantia Group. Latest data: 6 September (mobility) and 30 August (motorway traffic).a. Each grey line represents a different country).

USO INTERNO

-90

-75

-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

6-Ja

n/1

2-Ja

n

27-Ja

n/2

-Feb

17-F

eb

/23

-Feb

9-M

ar/1

5-M

ar

30-M

ar/5

-Ap

r

20-A

pr/2

6-A

pr

11-M

ay/1

7-M

ay

1-Ju

n/7

-Jun

22-Ju

n/2

8-Ju

n

13-Ju

l/19

-Jul

3-A

ug

/9-A

ug

24-A

ug/3

0-A

ug

SPAIN FRANCE ITALY

MOTORWAY TRAFFIC

Year-on-year rate of change with respect to equivalent week, %

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

22 F

eb

29 F

eb

07 M

ar

14 M

ar

21 M

ar

28 M

ar

04 A

pr

11 A

pr

18 A

pr

25 A

pr

02 M

ay

09 M

ay

16 M

ay

23 M

ay

30 M

ay

06 Ju

n1

3 Ju

n2

0 Ju

n2

7 Ju

n0

4 Ju

l1

1 Ju

l1

8 Ju

l2

5 Ju

l0

1 A

ug

08 A

ug

15 A

ug

22 A

ug

29 A

ug

05 S

ep

%

LOCAL MOBILITY INDICATORS (a). RETAIL AND RECREATION OUTLETS, PUBLIC TRANSPORT STATIONS AND WORKPLACES (7-day moving average)

-100-100 2…

2…

7…

1…

2…

2…

4…

1…

1…

2…

2…

9…

1…

%%FRANCE GERMANY HONG KONG

ITALY SOUTH KOREA NETHERLANDS

SPAIN UNITED STATES


GRADUAL AND INCOMPLETE RECOVERY IN SOCIAL SECURITY REGISTRATIONS

Social Security registrations have recovered in recent months, with the August

average standing 2.8% below the level recorded a year previously (-4.8% in May).

In year-on-year terms, the increase was more marked in July and the first half of

August, with indications of the recovery losing momentum since then.

Source: Ministerio de Inclusión, Seguridad Social y Migraciones. Latest data: 31 August.

USO INTERNO

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

01 Mar 01 Apr 03 May 03 Jun 02 Jul 31 Jul 31 Aug

DAILY REGISTRATIONS

YEAR-ON-YEAR RATE OF CHANGE IN DAILY SOCIAL SECURITY REGISTRATIONS

%

17,800

18,000

18,200

18,400

18,600

18,800

19,000

19,200

19,400

19,600

01 Mar 01 Apr 03 May 03 Jun 02 Jul 31 Jul 31 Aug

DAILY REGISTRATIONS MONTHLY AVERAGE

DAILY SOCIAL SECURITY REGISTRATIONS FROM BEGINNING OF MARCH

Thousands of people


THE NUMBER OF WORKERS ON FURLOUGH HAS DECLINED SHARPLY, ALLOWING A NOTABLE RECOVERY IN ACTUAL SOC. SEC. REGISTRATIONS

The number of workers on furlough has fallen by more than 70% from the highs recorded in April,

reaching just over 800,000 at the end of August. This reduction has allowed actual registrations to

recover to a year-on-year decline of -7.4% from the lows of -20.9% in May.

The recovery is quite uneven by sector of activity: some services sectors, such as accommodation

and food service activities (-29%), remain well below the employment levels of a year ago.

Source: Ministerio de Inclusión, Seguridad Social y Migraciones. a) Actual Social Security registrations: total registrations less workers on furlough

USO INTERNO

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

01 Ja

n

01 F

eb

01 M

ar

01 A

pr

01 M

ay

01 Ju

n

01 Ju

l

01 A

ug

TOTAL SOCIAL SECURITY REGISTRATIONS

ACTUAL SOCIAL SECURITY REGISTRATIONS (a)

TOTAL AND ACTUAL SOCIAL SECURITY REGISTRATIONS. MONTHLY AVERAGE DATA

% y-o-y

-75 -60 -45 -30 -15 0

Accomm. & food service activitiesArts and recreation

Administrative activitiesExtraterritorial organisations

Other services activitiesTransport

Real estate activitiesTrade

ManufacturingMining and quarrying

Prof., scientific and technical activitiesInformation and communication

EnergyDomestic help

EducationFinancial activities

ConstructionWater supply

Public administrationAgriculture

Health

Total

MAY 2020 AUGUST 2020

YEAR-ON-YEAR RATE OF CHANGE IN ACTUAL SOCIAL SECURITY REGISTRATIONS BY SECTOR OF ACTIVITY

%

DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND RESEARCH – BANCO DE ESPAÑA N

THE DOWNTURN IN THE TOURISM SECTOR PLACES CONSTRAINTS ON THE PERFORMANCE OF GDP IN Q3

The calibration of the decline in GDP this quarter compared with 2019 Q3 takes into

account above all the restrictions on activities related to tourism and recreation which

have curtailed their recovery since August.

Possible spillovers to the other sectors of activity are also taken into account (see

Prades and Tello, 2020).

Sources: Banco de España and INE.

USO INTERNO

-9.5 %

-12.3 %

-15

-13

-11

-9

-7

-5

-3

-1

SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2

PRIMARY SECTOR INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

CONSTRUCTION RETAIL AND WHOLESALE TRADE

TRANSPORT TOURISM

OTHER SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, EDUCATION AND HEALTH

Y-O-Y FALL IN GDP IN Q3: CONTRIBUTIONS BY SECTORS (PP)

pp


SPAIN IS HIGHLY EXPOSED TO INBOUND TOURISM

The Spanish economy is highly sensitive to inbound tourism. The relative weight of

tourism exports is higher than in the main euro area economies.

Sources: OECD and Eurostat.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

ES PT FR GR AT IT FI BE DE IE

WEIGHT OF TOURISM EXPORTS IN GDP (2018)

%

0

5

10

15

20

25

ES PT FR GR AT IT FI BE DE IE

WEIGHT OF TOURISM IN EXPORTS (2018)

%

USO INTERNO


FRESH OUTBREAKS OF THE PANDEMIC IN SPAIN HAVE DISRUPTED THE RECOVERY OF INBOUND TOURISM

The worsening of the health crisis has led the main countries that provide tourists to

impose new restrictions on travel to Spain.

This has curtailed the incipient recovery of inbound tourism observed at end-June

and in early July.

Sources: Eurocontrol, INE and Banco de España

USO INTERNO

-100

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

07/0

3/2

01

4/0

3/2

02

1/0

3/2

02

8/0

3/2

00

4/0

4/2

01

1/0

4/2

01

8/0

4/2

02

5/0

4/2

00

2/0

5/2

00

9/0

5/2

01

6/0

5/2

02

3/0

5/2

03

0/0

5/2

00

6/0

6/2

01

3/0

6/2

02

0/0

6/2

02

7/0

6/2

00

4/0

7/2

01

1/0

7/2

01

8/0

7/2

02

5/0

7/2

00

1/0

8/2

00

8/0

8/2

01

5/0

8/2

02

2/0

8/2

02

9/0

8/2

00

5/0

9/2

0

AIR TRAFFIC IN SPANISH AIRPORTS

SPENDING WITH FOREIGN CREDIT CARDS

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN SPENDING WITH FOREIGN CREDIT CARDS AND AIR TRAFFIC

Y-o-y rate of change (seven-day moving average)

-100

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

TOTAL UNITEDKINGDOM

GERMANY FRANCE ITALY

Tourist arrivals Tourist spending Overnight hotel stays

SPAIN: INBOUND TOURISM INDICATORS BY MAIN SOURCE MARKETS

Y-o-y rates in July 2020


1. Overview






CONTENTS

17USO INTERNO


SLUMP IN ACTIVITY IN 2020 AND SUBSEQUENT RECOVERY

2019 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022

GDP 2.0 -10.5 7.3 1.9 -12.6 4.1 3.3 -11.6 9.1 2.1

Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) 0.8 -0.2 1.0 1.2 -0.3 0.8 1.1 -0.2 1.2 1.5

Harmonised index of consumer prices excluding

energy and food1.1 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1

Unemployment rate (% of labour force). Annual

average14.1 17.1 19.4 18.2 18.6 22.1 20.2 19.6 18.8 17.4

General government net lending (+) /net borrowing (-)

(% of GDP)-2.8 -10.8 -7.0 -5.8 -12.1 -9.9 -8.2 -11.2 -6.8 -6.1

General government debt (% of GDP) 95.5 116.8 115.4 118.0 120.6 125.6 128.7 119.3 115.9 118.7

SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 GRADUAL RECOVERY

SEPTEMBER 2020 PROJECTIONSJUNE 2020

PROJECTIONSAnnual rate of change (%), unless otherwise indicated

Sources: Banco de España and INE. Projections cut-off date: 10 September 2020.


REAL GDP AT END-2022 WOULD BE BELOW THE DECEMBER 2019 LEVEL UNDER BOTH SCENARIOS

Pick-up in activity in 2020 Q3.

Sources: Banco de España and INE

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

2019 Q4 2020 Q4 2021 Q4 2022 Q4

DECEMBER 2019 PROJECTIONS

SCENARIO 1

SCENARIO 2

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(Chained volume index)

2019 Q4 = 100

SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2

-5.2 %

-18.5 %

16.6 %

13.0 %

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1 Q2 Q3

GDP IN 2020(Q-o-q rate of change, %)

%


FINAL DEMAND WILL RECORD A STEEP DROP IN 2020

… and recover in 2021, underpinned mainly by growth of domestic demand.


-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

CONSUMPTION INVESTMENT EXPORTS IMPORTS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

Projections

GDP GROWTH (%) AND CONTRIBUTIONS (pp)


EMPLOYMENT WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND TO THAT OF GDP

Employment, in terms of hours worked, will follow a very similar trend to that of

economic activity, declining by more than 10% in 2020 and recovering thereafter.

The increase in unemployment will be contained by the use of furlough schemes and

greater inactivity in 2020 Q2, although the unemployment rate is expected to rise to

between 17% and 18% this year.


-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

Scenario1

Scenario2

Scenario1

Scenario2

Scenario1

Scenario2

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

HOURS WORKED PRODUCTIVITY PER HOUR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

GDP GROWTH (%) AND CONTRIBUTIONS (PP)

Projections

INTERNAL USE

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

16 17 18 19 20 21 22

OBSERVED Scenario 1 Scenario 2

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(% of labour force)

%Projections


PUBLIC FINANCES: CHANGES IN GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT AND DEFICIT

New spending measures are included (extension of furlough schemes until September,minimum living income, fund for regional governments), which worsen the deficit in2020-2022. The Next Generation EU programme is not included given the uncertaintyover its amount, structure and timing for Spain.

The deficit is expected to stand between -10.8% and -12.1% of GDP in 2020,subsequently decreasing in the following years.

Debt rises significantly in 2020 and, to a lesser extent, in 2021-2022.

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

As a % of GDP 2019 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022

General government balance

-2.8 -10.8 -7.0 -5.8 -12.1 -9.9 -8.2

General government debt

95.5 116.8 115.4 118.0 120.6 125.6 128.7

Source: Banco de España.

INTERNAL USE


INFLATION WILL RISE AND THEN LEVEL OFF, HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY CHANGES IN ENERGY


The overall inflation rate is expected to be negative in H2, gradually increasing and

levelling off around 1.1%-1.2% until end-2022:

progressively larger contribution from energy prices.

gradual increase in core inflation.

INTERNAL USE

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

CORE INFLATION ENERGY FOOD ACTUAL HICP AND SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2

OVERALL INFLATION (%) AND CONTRIBUTIONS (PP)

Projections


COMPARISON WITH JUNE FORECASTS FOR 2020


INTERNAL USE

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4

Scenario 1 (September) Early recovery scenario (June) Scenario 2 (September) Gradual recovery scenario (June)

REAL GDP. COMPARISON OF THE CURRENT SCENARIOS FOR 2020 WITH THE JUNE SCENARIOS

% y-o-y


1. Overview






CONTENTS

25USO INTERNO


RISKS SURROUNDING THE FORECASTS

Activity

(-) As regards the course of the pandemic:

• Possibility of more intense outbreaks over the coming quarters, entailing stringent lockdown

measures, with a larger impact on “social industries”.

• Possible delay in the discovery and/or distribution of an effective solution, which will have a

bearing on the path of recovery in the medium term.

(-) More protracted effects on productive capacity (higher levels of business insolvency and hysteresis

effects in the labour market).

(-) Possible lack of agreement in Brexit negotiations; China-US geopolitical/trade tensions.

(+) The launch of the EC’s recovery plan (“Next Generation EU”) approved on 27 July, above all in the

second half of the projection horizon.

Prices

(-) Materialisation of downside risks to activity.

(-) Deanchoring of inflation expectations

(+) Cost increases associated with the possible introduction of hygiene and sanitary measures in

some productive processes.

INTERNAL USE


1. Overview






CONTENTS

27USO INTERNO


MACRO IMPACT OF NEXT GENERATION EU PROGRAMME (I)

In July the European Council resolved to create the Next Generation EU (NGEU) fund

to address the impact of the COVID-19 crisis and speed up the digital and ecological

transition.

Government estimates indicate that Spain would be eligible for funds of €140 bn

(12.6% of GDP), 47% in direct grants and the remainder in loans.

These funds are not included in the projections, as there is still great uncertainty as

to the amount and composition of the funds and the time frame.

Instead, their potential macroeconomic impact has been calculated in accordance with

different assumptions on the specifics of the programme for Spain:

the time frame for the projects (early or late implementation);

the grants / loans split; and

the type of projects to be funded (investment or other expenditure).

The uncertainty in the empirical evidence on the scale of the fiscal multiplier has also been

considered using a range of values (investment 0.8-1.3, other expenditure 0.4-0.7).

USO INTERNO


MACRO IMPACT OF NEXT GENERATION EU PROGRAMME (II)

Four simulation exercises have been performed using the MTBE model for a

cumulative standardised stimulus of €10 bn (0.9% of GDP):

A combination of assumptions most conducive to economic growth – exercise 1 – boosts GDP

by 0.2-0.3 pp on average in 2021-23.

Late implementation – exercise 2 – would delay the maximum impulse and the expansionary

effect on 2021-23 would be more moderate.

If the funds are received via loans – exercise 3 – the additional cost would drive up the deficit and

debt and thus limit the increase in GDP.

Lastly, if the funds were applied to other expenditure – exercise 4 – which according to the

empirical evidence generates a smaller multiplier effect, the impact on GDP would be lower.

In short, the impact of the NGEU programme on recovery will depend on the correct

choice and implementation of the projects to be funded and on their capacity to

strengthen long-term growth.

USO INTERNO

GDP Public debt (% of GDP)

2021 2022 2021 2022

Exercise 1: “early implementation” + “grants” + “public investment” 0.19 − 0.3 0.21 − 0.35 -0.22 − -0.35 -0.35 − -0.57

Exercise 2: “late implementation” + “grants” + “public investment” 0.02 − 0.04 0.08 − 0.13 -0.03 − -0.05 -0.1 − -0.18

Exercise 3: “early implementation” + “loans” + “public investment” 0.14 − 0.27 0.15 − 0.29 -0.1 − -0.2 -0.09 − -0.18

Exercise 4: “early implementation” + “grants” + “current expenditure” 0.06 − 0.09 0.12 − 0.19 -0.07 − -0.11 -0.18 − -0.29

Effects on GDP and public debt of the Next Generation EU programme under alternative assumptions (a)

Percentage differences in level


THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND RESEARCH

APPENDIX

31


FINANCIAL AND INTERNATIONAL SETTING ASSUMPTIONS

2019 2020 2021 2022

International environment

Global output 2.8 -4.2 6.1 3.7

Spain's export markets 1.5 -13.1 7.3 4.3

Oil price ($ per barrel) (level) 64.0 42.1 45.9 48.5

Monetary and financial conditions

Dollar/euro exchange rate (level) 1.12 1.14 1.19 1.19

Nominal effective exchange rate

vis-à-vis non-euro area countries

(2000 level = 100)

116.4 117.7 121.4 121.4

Short-term interest rates

(3-month euribor) -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5

Long-term interest rate

(10-year bond yield)0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6

September 2020 projectionsAnnual rates of change, unless otherwise indicated

PROJECTION ASSUMPTIONS

SOURCES: Banco de España and ECB. Cut-off date for the assumptions: 10 September 2020.


PROJECTIONS 2020-2022

SOURCES: Banco de España and the INE. Latest published QNA data: 2020 Q2.

a. Projections cut-off date: 10 September 2020.b. Annual average.

2019 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022

GDP 2.0 -10.5 7.3 1.9 -12.6 4.1 3.3

Private consumption 1.1 -11.2 9.4 1.7 -13.1 5.5 3.2

Government consumption 2.3 5.4 -1.3 -0.1 5.6 -1.2 -0.5

Gross fixed capital formation 1.8 -19.5 6.0 5.3 -21.9 2.4 6.5

Exports of goods and services 2.6 -20.7 11.5 6.2 -25.2 7.4 8.0

Imports of goods and services 1.2 -18.7 8.4 6.6 -22.0 4.9 7.3

Domestic demand (contribution to growth) 1.5 -9.3 6.2 1.8 -10.9 3.3 2.9

Net external demand (contribution to growth) 0.5 -1.2 1.1 0.1 -1.7 0.8 0.4

Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) 0.8 -0.2 1.0 1.2 -0.3 0.8 1.1

HICP excluding energy and food 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.8

Employment (hours worked) 1.5 -11.9 7.0 1.6 -14.1 3.8 2.7

Unemployment rate (% of labour force) (b) 14.1 17.1 19.4 18.2 18.6 22.1 20.2

National net lending (+)/net borrowing (-) (% of GDP) 2.3 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.1 1.3 1.5

General government net lending (+)/net borrowing (-) (% of

GDP)-2.8 -10.8 -7.0 -5.8 -12.1 -9.9 -8.2

General government debt (% of GDP) 95.5 116.8 115.4 118.0 120.6 125.6 128.7

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

September 2020 projections (a)

Annual rate of change in volume terms and as % of GDP

new macroeconomic projections for spain 2020-2022 · 2020. 9. 22. · spain 2020-2022 Óscar arce...

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