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New Population Projections for California that Report Immigrant Generation & Length of Residence

John Pitkin & Dowell Myerspresented at the23rd Annual Demographic Workshop of SCAG/USCMonday, May 23, 2011

Goals for thisPresentation

• Provide an explanation of how this version of the California Demographic Futures is being developed.

• Provide a preview of the interim projections, which are due to be finalized this summer.

• Discuss the implications of the findings.

Background

Three Key Trends Have Turned Around

• California's attraction to new immigrants has plunged by one third; new immigrants diverted to other states.

• New immigrants' share of the total California population has also dropped, contrary to other states in the nation.

• The volume of immigration to the US peaked in 2000, dipped further during the recession, and is not likely to return to 2000 levels for many years, if ever.

Demographic Projection Content

Age

Sex

Race or Hispanic Origin

Age

Sex

Race or Hispanic Origin

Native or Foreign Born

Year of Entry of Foreign Born

Generation of Native Born

Conventional CDF Model

Stages of Model Development CDF

Estimation phase Works forward from Census 2000 populationTargets April 1, 2010 base populationCalibrates to records of the 2000-2009 period:

American Community Survey + Vital records

Projection phase

-- interim (using PL 94-171 and DP-1 data)-- final (using SF1 for 2010)

Key Assumptionson Immigration

Immigration to California Fell After 2003

Gross Immigration to CA, Annual, 1970-2006

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Th

ou

san

ds

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

CA

/ U

.S. im

mig

rati

on

Mexico, C.A.Asian, PIOtherTotalCA/US, Total, rt. axis

Immigration from Mexico to California Down Sharply

Mexican Share of U.S. Immigrants by Year of

Entry

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

U.S.

CA (right scale)

What to assume about future level of immigration to U.S.?

• Ask ten leading immigration researchers in a Delphi-style survey (April 2011).

• Show them the historical trend and ask opinion on future level in 2015 and 2025.

• Are the experts too bullish?

Record shows immigration peak in 2000

Annual Gross Foreign Born Immigration to U.S. 1990-2009-2025

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

An

nu

al im

mig

rati

on

(2

00

0 =

10

0)

Passel-Suro

ACS ROYA

?

?

?

?

Results: future levels near 2000 peak

Annual Gross Foreign Born Immigration to U.S. 1990-2009

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

An

nu

al im

mig

rati

on

(2000 =

100)

Passel-SuroACS ROYA

Population Descriptions

Preliminary CDF Results

Data Not Finalized

Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized

Total Population Projections for California, DOF & CDF


Rising Hispanic Share of Population


Falling White Share of Population


Steady White Population


CA Racial & Ethnic Composition


2000 Population by Age and Race


Hispanic Share of Each Age


White Non-Hispanic Share by Age


Foreign Born Share by Age


Steady Percent Foreign Born


CA Population by Place of Birth


2000 CA Population by Birthplace, Generation, and Length of Residence in U.S.

Implications


California Population by Generation


Hispanic Population by Generation


Asian Population by Generation


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Settled Immigrants New ImmigrantsPitkin & Myers '10

CDF 9-7

Percent of California Population Who Are Immigrants

Helping Hands

by Nativity and Duration in California

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Native Born

Foreign Born

<10 10-19 20-29 30+

Percent in Poverty

Percent in Poverty


Percent with Health Insurance

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Native Born Foreign Born

<10 10-19 20-29 30+

Percent Health Uninsured

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


<10 10-19 20-29 30+

Percent Public Transit Commuters


Percent Using Public Transit

0102030405060708090

100


<10 10-19 20-29 30+

Percent that Speak English Well


Percent Speaking English Well

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Native BornForeign Born <10 10-19 20-29 30+

Percent of Adults who are Homeowners


Percent of Homeowners

Thank you

For more information on the model development, see:

John Pitkin and Dowell Myers, “Projections of the Population of California by Nativity and Year of Entry to the U.S., in Addition to Age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin,” paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, April 2011.

See popdynamics website

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