New Principles for Economic Success in the Age of Biocapacity Constraints

Mathis Wackernagel, Ph.D. STOA Lecture – November 29, 2011

A Euro Crisis … or a Resource Crisis?

Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors

3

Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors

Global Footprint--------------------------- = 1.5Global Biocapacity

“today”

4

The Ecological Footprint

CARBON footprint

5

Biocapacity:How much

bioproductive area is available to us?

Ecological Footprint:How much bioproductive

area do we demand?

Accounting Framework for Ecological Services

6

The Basic Equation

Amount per yearYield = -------------------------

Area

Amount per yearArea = -------------------------

Yield

Translate area from ha into global ha…

The Basic Equation

Ecological Footprintper person

Biocapacity per person

Italy

9

Composition of Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit

Ecological Footprintper person

Italy

Biocapacity per person

Commodity prices (WB index)Source: World Bank – pink sheet

11

12

x

World Commodity Prices

=

Cost of Biocapacity Deficit

Biocapacity DeficitItaly

Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit

Cost of Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit (WMP of all that cannot be renewed within Italy)

13

Italy’s GDP per person

Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit

Change in Italian’s relative income

14

0

1E-10

2E-10

3E-10

4E-10

5E-10

6E-10

7E-10

8E-10

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

RATI

O in

GN

I per

capi

ta t

o w

orld

tot

al(in

con

stan

t 20

00 U

S$)

Italian's share in world income

Italian's relative income

world average

Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Europe Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005

HU

DKATDE

ES

RO

SECH

IT

PT

NL

FR

PO

GR

RU

BE

FI

UK

IR

SK

CZ

BY

RS UA 15

0

2E-10

4E-10

6E-10

8E-10

1E-09

1.2E-09

1.4E-09

1.6E-09

1.8E-09

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

RATI

O in

GN

I per

capi

ta t

o w

orld

tot

al(in

con

stan

t 20

00 U

S$)

American's share in world income

American's relative income

world average

0

1E-10

2E-10

3E-10

4E-10

5E-10

6E-10

7E-10

8E-10

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

RATI

O in

GN

I per

capi

ta t

o w

orld

tot

al(in

con

stan

t 20

00 U

S$)

Italian's share in world income

italian's relative income

world average

0

1E-10

2E-10

3E-10

4E-10

5E-10

6E-10

7E-10

8E-10

9E-10

1E-09

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

RATI

O in

GN

I per

capi

ta t

o w

orld

tot

al(in

con

stan

t 20

00 U

S$)

German's share in world income

German's relative income

world average

0

5E-11

1E-10

1.5E-10

2E-10

2.5E-10

3E-10

3.5E-10

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

RATI

O in

GN

I per

capi

ta t

o w

orld

tot

al(in

con

stan

t 20

00 U

S$)

Chinese's share in world income

Chinese's relative income

world average

Costs of resources Ecuador’s residents consume but Ecuador’s ecosystems cannot regenerate

(at world market price)

United Kingdom

Mexico

IndiaChina

World

United States of America

Germany France

Ecuador

Italy

Switzerland

GreeceSpainPortugal

Denmark

$-

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

GN

I per resident in US Dollars (2000))

Biocapacity Deficit or Biocapacity Remainder (gha/ cap)

Factory world…

or?

Biocapacity Deficit and Absolute Income (1980 – 2007)

United Kingdom

Mexico

IndiaChina

World

United States of America

Germany France

Ecuador

Italy

Switzerland

GreeceSpain

Portugal

Denmark

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Fraction of world total G

NI held by average resident

(billionths)

Biocapacity Deficit or Biocapacity Remainder (gha/ cap)

…global auction?

Biocapacity Deficit and Global Income Share (1980 – 2007)

21

Insights• Downward escalator of resource costs

outpaces economies’ ability to run upwards.

• Euro crisis is a symptom of a deepening resource crunch.

• Turning around resource trends is a necessary condition for Europe’s economy to recover. 22

New principles• Nature has a budget. Do you know

how much biocapacity you have? and how much you use?

• Biocapacity is the currency of the 21st century. Blindness to biocapacity budget costs lives & opportunities.

• Self-interest for countries and cities to act is overwhelming

mathis@footprintnetwork.org23