new public of forest etecosystem sis ervices: a discrete choice · 2011. 7. 6. · carbon storage...
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Private vs. Public Private vs. Public Provision of Forest Provision of Forest E t S iE t S iEcosystem Services: Ecosystem Services: ADiscrete ChoiceADiscrete ChoiceA Discrete Choice A Discrete Choice
AnalysisAnalysis
Gabrielle Roesch, M.S. Candidate School of Forest ResourcesAdvisor: Sergey Rabotyagovg y y g
Sponsoring Agency: USDA AFRI
OutlineOutlineBackgroundg
Research QuestionsPrevious StudiesPrevious Studies
MethodsResults
Analysis & DiscussionAnalysis & Discussion
BACKGROUNDBACKGROUND“A comprehensive system needs
to be designed to provide incentives to keep forestincentives to keep forest landowners in forestry and maintain the land base”
2008 Climate Action Team: Forest Sector Workgroup
• Increased regulationg
• Conversion
• Ownership structure
• Climate Change and emerging g g gmarkets
• The ECOSEL tool finds the most efficient combination of ecosystem services that can be delivered at the least ypossible cost. The tradeoffs and opportunity costs of providing an efficient range of forest ecosystem services are identified and linked to spatially explicitare identified and linked to spatially explicit management plans.
• University of Washington’s Pack Forest (4300 acre Douglas‐fir forest) provides the baseline for the management scenariosmanagement scenarios. Tóth, S.F., Ettl, G.J., and S.S. Rabotyagov. 2010. ECOSEL: An auction mechanism for forest ecosystem services. Mathematical and Computational Forestry and Natural Resources Science 2(2):99‐116.
Research QuestionsResearch QuestionsQQOR and WA household
• Preferences for forest ecosystem services and their• Preferences for forest ecosystem services and their WTP for them
• The relative weights of specific attributes
• Willingness to participate in a voluntary vs. a mandatory programmandatory program
Previous StudiesPrevious StudiesPrevious StudiesPrevious Studies• WA: Positive WTP more biodiversity and aestheticWA: Positive WTP more biodiversity and aesthetic amenity (Xu et al., 2003).
• OR: Positive WTP for biodiversity conservation programs, lresistant to policy intervention (Garber‐Yonts et al., 2004).
• Canada: High WTP for mature forest and wildlife habitat• Canada: High WTP for mature forest and wildlife habitat (Moon, 2004).
• CA: Differences in preferences for public goods provision; p p g pprivate consumption vs. policy intervention (Hamilton, Sunding & Zilberman 2000).
MethodsMethodsStated Preference Survey DesignSurvey Design
Conduct Focus Groups
Web‐based survey administered
Analysis and Application
Focus GroupsFocus GroupsFocus GroupsFocus Groups
Focus Group Type Sample Size Direct Input
Seattle‐area residents 12 Survey InstrumentSea e a ea esi e s Su ey I s u e
Nisqually Watershed Council
9 Auction format andForest Valuation
Local Stakeholders 7 Auction format andLocal Stakeholders 7 Auction format and Forest Valuation
Environmental valuationEnvironmental valuation“Utility theory provides the conceptual
basis for resource compensation i ll l i l i
Stated Preference Methods
measures since all ecological services can be represented as entering an
individual’s utility function.”(Adamowicz et al 1998) Rating Ranking
Stated Choice(Adamowicz et al., 1998) Rating Ranking
Attribute Based Stated
• Valuation studies based on random utility theory:
Other Choice MethodsAttribute Based Stated Choice Methods
Referendum Contingent Valuation
Ui= vi + Єi
g
Figure reproduced from Adamowicz et al., 1998
Design of Survey Design of Survey InstrumentInstrument
Pack Forest as baseline-Utilized management scenarios under ECOSEL framework. -16 Alternatives, 4 Choice Sets Each-2 separate surveys: Mandatory vs. Voluntary2 separate surveys: Mandatory vs. VoluntaryAttributes Mature
ForestHabitat
Carbon Stored
Water Quality
Land Protected
Recreation
Your Cost
Habitat
Level 1 460 39,000 2% 50 Years No $25
Level 2 630 57,000 4% NeverDeveloped
Yes $75
Level 3 730 77 000 6% $125Level 3 730 77,000 6% $125
Level 4 870 97,000 8% $175
Experimental DesignExperimental DesignExperimental DesignExperimental Design
S S lS S lSurvey SampleSurvey Sample• Mandatory Payment
mechanism framed as a f d l di t
• Voluntary Payment Mechanism asked for an
l t ib ti i referendum leading to an annual tax payment
annual contribution in a provision‐point (threshold), with a
• N= 264
refund, game format.
N 192• N= 192
Choice Set (Voluntary Provision) Choice Set (Voluntary Provision) ( y )( y )
Choice Set (Mandatory, TaxChoice Set (Mandatory, Tax funded, funded,
Provision) Provision)
Attribute Alternative A Alternative B Current TrendMature Forest: Total
f t ld94% increase in total
630169% increase in total
87010% reduction in t t l t f tacres of trees older
than 115 years within the next 50 years
acreage or 630 acres. acreage or 870 acres. total mature forest acreage or 292 acres.
Carbon Storage: Total 175% increase in total 104% increase in total 5% reduction in gtons of carbon stored over 50 years
carbon storage or 77,000 tons stored.
carbon storage or 57,000 tons stored.
carbon storage or 26,600 tons of carbon stored.
Wate Quality % 4% i ea e i 6% i ea e i 10% de ea e iWater Quality: % Increase in improved salmon habitat
4% increase in salmon habitat
6% increase in salmon habitat
10% decrease in salmon habitat
Land Conversion Never Developed Never Developed 25% of land developed in the next 50 years
Recreation Public Access Public Access No Public Accessl C $ f $ f ATotal Cost to
landowner above baseline
$58.44 per acre, for fifty years.
$62.44 per acre, for fifty years.
NA
Your annual tax $75 $25 $0
Respondent Respondent D hiD hiDemographicsDemographics
• Survey Sampling International
Demographic Characteristic
VoluntaryMechanism
MandatoryMechanism OR/WA Average
% Female 63% 73% 50%
• Response Rate:
Eastern Washington 27% 24%aprox. 15%
Response Rate:-TBD
Eastern Oregon 8% 24%aprox. 5%
Democratic 34% 43% 44%
Average Age 48 53 36
Average Income 44,000 42,000 $54,000
% Caucasian 81% 85% 87%
Model SpecificationModel SpecificationppMNL ModelChoices: A, B or Current TrendUtility associated with choice:
U(A,B)=Characteristics varying by alternative: Mature Forest Habitat, Carbon Sequestration, Water Quality, Land Conversion, Recreation, the Cost to the landowner and the Cost to respondent and the Cost to the landowner and the Cost to respondent and perception of total number of other respondents choosing an alternative.
U (Current Trend)=Characteristics of the decision maker: alternative U (Current Trend)=Characteristics of the decision-maker: alternative specific constant , geographic location, length of residence, neighborhood-type, gender, age, level of education, conservation and volunteer history, Small Forest Landowner, employment level, income political affiliation voting history and perception of total income, political affiliation, voting history, and perception of total number of other respondents choosing an alternative.
Voluntary Provision: Voluntary Provision: Distribution of ChoicesDistribution of ChoicesDistribution of ChoicesDistribution of ChoicesChoice Percent Total Number
A 26.271 165
B 36.568 229
None 37.161 233
Total 100% 627
Voluntary Payment MechanismVoluntary Payment Mechanism
Variable CoefficientStandard
Error
ASC (Unobservable source of utility) 2 30750968 0 7178047ASC (Unobservable source of utility) 2.30750968 0.7178047
MATURE HABITAT 0.00146444 0.00072218
CARBON STORAGE 1.64E‐05 .586785E‐05
WATER QUALITY 0.13822438 0.04009317
LAND CONVERSION ‐0.12122294 0.04532947
RECREATION ‐0.24329431 0.21040076
COST OF MANAGEMENT ‐0.01271055 0.00680592
CONTRIBUTION/PRICE 0 0060785 0 00227158CONTRIBUTION/PRICE ‐0.0060785 0.00227158
% OF OTHERS 0.17536388 0.01285438
EASTERN WASHINGTON ‐0.65950132 0.28419927
RESIDENCE(TIME) ‐0.34082461 0.08879644
MALE 0.49284877 0.22052031
INCOME 0.05397921 0.03145905
Mandatory Provision: Mandatory Provision: Di t ib ti f Ch iDi t ib ti f Ch iDistribution of ChoicesDistribution of Choices
Choice Percent Total Number
A 37.024 302
B 36.660 300B 36.660 300
None 26.316 215
Total 100% 817
Mandatory Payment Mandatory Payment M h iM h iMechanismMechanism
Variable CoefficientStandard
ErrorVariable Coefficient Error
ASC (unobservable source of utility) ‐1.61541618 0.51214784
MATURE HABITAT 0.00048121 0.00049367
CARBON STORAGE 6.83E‐06 .408850E05
WATER QUALITY 0.06738179 0.02507541
LAND CONVERSION 0.01195353 0.02719643
RECREATION 0.22154924 0.17707935
COST OF MANAGEMENT ‐0.0076906 0.00537359
TAX(PRICE) ‐0.00580644 0.00143536
% OF OTHERS 0.15825407 0.01096772
WESTERN WASHINGTON ‐0.25024902 0.18785174
FULL TIME EMPLOYMENT ‐0.46522214 0.20268746
VOTE NATIONALLY 1.12080839 0.22246154
VOLUNTEER LOCALLY 1.28719386 0.35535919
WillingnessWillingness‐‐toto‐‐PayPayWillingnessWillingness‐‐toto‐‐Pay Pay • Private, Voluntary • Public, Mandatory , y
System• Critical WTP estimate:
, ySystem
• Critical WTP estimate:$231 86 -$75.21$231.86
PublicMarginal Willingness To Pay i
Marginal Willingness To Public To Pay
MATURE HABITAT 0.08
CARBON STORAGE 0.0012
WATER QUALITY 11 60
Private Pay
MATURE HABITAT 0.24
CARBON STORAGE 0.0027
WATER QUALITY 11.60
LAND CONVERSION 2.06
RECREATION 38.16
WATER QUALITY 22.74
LAND CONVERSION ‐19.94
RECREATION ‐40.03
COST TO LANDOWNER ‐1.32 COST TO LANDOWNER ‐2.09
C iC iComparisons…Comparisons…• Differences between • Similarity between voluntary and mandatory models:
• ASC unobservable
yvoluntary and mandatory models:R d t iti t ASC unobservable
portion of utility for status quo (voluntary system) whereas we see
• Respondents sensitive to cost of landowner estimates and efficiency. system) whereas we see
unobservable utility for choosing a a forest management plan
y• Price Point important• Water quality and carbon
t ti management plan (mandatory system).
• WTP estimates much higher in public system
sequestration
higher in public system.
Perceived Risks to Forest Perceived Risks to Forest LandLand‐‐BaseBasePerceived Threats to Forests
ConversionConversion
Climate Change
Pests and Disease
Private Mismanagement
Public Mismanagement
Attribute InfluenceAttribute Influence70
80 Public Payment Mechanism 60Private Payment Mechanism
50
60
40
50
20
30
40
10
20
30
0
10
0
10
Most Influence
Least InfluenceMost Influence
Least Influence
F t I tFuture Impacts
Inform sellers of Ecosystem Services
Policy Makers
Design of future Ecosystem Services Marketsg y
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