new transport for the new digital age - oecd.org - oecd · 2017-10-31 · new transport for the new...
TRANSCRIPT
Dr. Young Tae KIM
Secretary-General of ITF
27 October 2017
New Transport for the New Digital Age
What a shock !!! 2
A.I.: “Self-learning capacity”
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Unless it has a self-learning capacity, it’s a kind of high-
performance machine (A.I. vs. machine)
‘It’ can play a useful role in (economically) rational
decision making process first. But it can also have some
emotional aspects of human beings step by step
(imitation)
It can be good because it can solve the problem of
information asymmetry
It can be bad because it can make people subject to
other beings (“Escape from Freedom”)
Some people might opt for “Back to the Past”
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Some points to share
Improvement in the transport sector is largely attributable to technological development, especially in digital sector
Transport in the past Transport of today
Modal
Supply-driven
Government-led
Hardware
Clear identity of the sector
Conventional, Manual
Multimodal, Intermodal
Demand-driven
PPP
Software
Multidimensional
Automation
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Helps to identify O/D and to make demand-responsive policies
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Helps to relax
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Helps to economise and to go door-to-door (c.f: buxi, taxibus)
Benefits that we can imagine…
Economical Sustainable Inclusive
and Safe…!!!
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Opportunities and Challenges
Technological aspect Continue to get better
Industrial aspect
Conflict between existing
modes and new modes
(licensing system, political
influence, etc.)
Policy or Institutional aspect
Gap between technological
development and institutional
evolution, ethical issues, etc.
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☞ International organisations like ITF can
play a crucial role in sharing best practices and
leading core discussions
Reflections on the Labour aspect
Optimist Pessimist
a. Schumpeter: Creative destruction of industries and job / Innovation b. Autor, Katz: Technology created more jobs than it destroyed c. Adam Smith: Self- adjustment of market
a. Brynjolfsson & McAfee: Technology is destroying jobs faster than creating them
b. Vernor Vinge (sci-fi writer): Computers are smarter than humans
People have a tendency to focus on job destruction,
rather than on job creation (dual aspect)
This problem is related to overall restructuring of
employment market (integrated aspect)
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Jobs threatened by automation
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Source: Frey and Osborne (2013, p. 37)
• Frey and Osborne (2013) developed a probability of automation for 700 occupations
Jobs accounting for 47% of current employments in
US are at high risk of automation in coming decades
In the transport sector
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Destruction Creation
- Driver - Ticket seller - Ticket controller, etc.
- Trip planner - Transport coordinator - System developer - Security expert - Supply chain manager - Freight forwarder, etc.
Remaining questions:
- How many drivers will not be needed for the driving task?
- What is the demographic and skills profile of these drivers?
- What are the opportunities within the industry?
- What are the other opportunities outside the sector?
- How should various actors plan this pathway?
Cases of < Email vs. Post office >, < ATM vs. Bank
branch office >
Jobs requiring heuristic and insightful approaches are
hard to be done by machines
People will be more and more interested in value
adding work in the long run
Multidimensional work combined with different sectors
will be prevailing
It is a matter of time: short-term vs. long-term
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No need to be too pessimistic
Potential responses
Temporary permit system
to manage transition
Determining rate of
deployment of driverless
trucks
Revenues from permit sales
to fund retraining
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Thank you