New Values: Policies to Manage Forest Carbon

Rest of term November 12 - forest carbon 1, Tutorial 4 November 14 – carbon (cont)

Brief due November 18 (Monday) – EBM simulation November 19 (Lecture) – comparative November 19 (evening) – area-based

simulation November 21 – conclusion 1 November 26 – conclusion 2 November 28 – NO CLASS December 12 – 3:30-5:30 final exam

November 12, 2013 2

Context: Forest Offset Controversy

November 12, 2013 3

Key question: are carbon offsets… legitimate reductions in GHGs that

should, if properly regulated, play an meaningful role in climate policy

or

Sketchy subsidies that provide dubious contributions to reducing GHGs, and should not be including in sincere climate policiesNovember 12, 2013 4

Agenda – today and Thursday

Emerging values Forest Carbon 100 How forests can contribute to GHG mitigation BC Climate policy

General Forest carbon

Policy Design Issues Promoting Wood Bioenergy (briefly) conclusion

November 12, 2013 5

Forest offset policy – design issues Ownership Rules for what counts Scope

Including wood products Quantification Permanence Leakage Monitoring Additionality

November 14, 2013 6

BC Emission Offset Regulation (OAG summary)http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/cas/mitigation/ggrta/pdf/offsets-reg.pdf

The project has to start after November 29, 2007 The project cannot be required by law or

regulation. It must be demonstrated that the project faces

financial, technological or other obstacles which are overcome, or partially overcome, by the incentive of being recognized as an emission offset

The financial implications of the baseline scenario need to be considered

Must be validated and by accredited 3rd party

November 14, 2013 7

Forest Carbon Offset Protocol

8http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/cas/mitigation/pdfs/FCOP_final-dec7-overview.pdf

Forest Protocol 1 - Scope Afforestation Reforestation Improved forest management – examples:

Conservation areas Increasing rotation age Increasing forest cover constraints (reduce

harvest) Increase proportion of harvested wood

products Conservation/avoided deforestation

November 14, 2013 9

Forest Protocol 2Additionality (incrementality) sequestration and storage of carbon

in above- and below-ground parts of trees beyond what would occur under the baseline scenario

No baseline established; project proponent proposes one for PCT approval

November 14, 2013 10

Example of additionality (Grieg and Bull)

November 14, 2013 11

Carb

on st

ored

Another depiction of additionality

November 14, 2013 12

http://www.dehst.de/SharedDocs/Bilder/EN/charts/chart_JI-CDM_Baseline.png?__blob=normal&v=3

leakage Where a project changes the level of goods

or services provide, causing a subsequent change to supply outside the area

2 types Land use shifting Harvest shifting

2 sources Internal leakage (lands controlled by project

owner) External leakage – the broader market (not

necessarily in same jurisdiction)November 14, 2013 13

Darkwoods case

55,000 ha private forest land in Kooteneys

PCT description Bought by Nature

Conservancy Canada

NCC sold 450,ooo tonnes of credits to PCT

November 14, 2013 14

Darkwoods – case for

“NCC carries out the stewardship of Darkwoods, resulting carbon being sequestered over time in addition to what would have happened in the absence of NCC’s conservation efforts. Had NCC not purchased the property, it likely would have been developed or logged at an intensive, “liquidation harvest,” level.”

November 14, 2013 15

Darkwoods – baseline issues Baseline assumed to be harvesting

300,000 m3/yr NCC said it would log 10,000 per

year, carbon in the remaining timber is the offset

Actual harvesting rate 2001-07: 57,000

What appropriate baseline is uncertain

November 14, 2013 16

Darkwoods – OAG critique

November 14, 2013 17

Darkwoods – OAG critique

November 14, 2013 18

Darkwoods – OAG critique Concern that carbon accounting

outfits helping develop projects and those verifying project have a conflict of interest

Government not being sufficient diligent in scrutinizing justification for project

November 14, 2013 19

Fallout from OAG report

Attacks of incompetence from offseters

Members of OAG audit team fired (uncertain whether related to case)

Commitment by government to review PCT

November 14, 2013 20

The GBR Case

Big GBR carbon offset projects

May be used to offset LNG expansion

Challenges to additionality

November 14, 2013 21

Agenda Emerging values Forest Carbon 100 How forests can contribute to GHG mitigation BC Climate policy

General Forest carbon

Policy Design Issues Promoting Wood bioenergy conclusion

November 14, 2013 22

Promoting use of wood

Wood First Act (Bill 9 – 2009)

Sector wide initiative: Promote use of wood

Framing: “wood is good”

November 14, 2013 23

Strategic Actor Analysis

Through class participation

November 14, 2013 24

Agenda Emerging values Forest Carbon 100 How forests can contribute to GHG mitigation BC Climate policy

General Forest carbon

Policy Design Issues Promoting Wood Bioenergy conclusion

November 14, 2013 25

Bio-energy Strategy (2008) “convert wood waste and trees that

have been killed by the mountain pine beetle into clean, renewable energy, create new opportunities for rural communities, spur new investment and innovation, and help B.C. become energy self-sufficient.”

November 14, 2013 FRST 415 26

Sustainable Energy Policy 27

Forest Bioenergy - background Viability depends on

relative value of competing uses of forest stands

Depends on Energy density Available technology

(gathering and processing) Regulatory framework Relative prices of energy

and competing forest products

3 sources of forest bioenergy Mill residues Residues left in forest Standing timber (including

plantation)

November 14, 2013 28

Sustainable Energy Policy 29

Forests, bioenergy, and carbon From a greenhouse gas perspective,

it makes more sense to use forests to make long-lived wood products Ben Parfitt –

Managing BC’s Forests for a Cooler Planet

Sustainable Energy Policy 30

New Themes

BC’s forests can potentially contribute to greenhouse gas reductions, but immense complexity and uncertainty make effective and efficient policy design very difficult

BC’s vast forest resource is a potentially significant source of energy, but the low energy density and costs of concentrating the resource where it can be processed means that for the foreseeable future it is likely to be a significant, economical source of energy only as a residual product of the forest sector.

Conclusions Apparent opportunities, immense

challenges course tools applicable Emergent forest carbon policy Limited bioenergy policy

Economics questionable

November 14, 2013 FRST 415 31

Conclusions

Coming paradigm shift, or struggling industry grasping for faint hope?

Depends in part on definition of rules What makes sense in terms of

science? Beware of underlying interests

November 14, 2013 FRST 415 32