new westminster keynote - norman jacknis

Norman Jacknis ICF Senior Fellow

March 31, 2015

The New New Westminster — Ready For The Future

Building The Community Of The 21st Century

What Is The Intelligent Community Forum?

March 31, 2015 © 2015 Norman Jacknis, Senior Fellow, ICF. All rights reserved 2

ICF Is A Global Network

ICF is the global organization that brings together the visionary leaders who make high speed Internet and technology an integral part of their community building

Together, they pursue joint development

Organized more than 15 years ago, now with more than 125 communities around the world


ICF Is Also A Think Tank


Community Accelerator

We study how communities use ICT to build economic prosperity, solve social challenges and enrich their cultures.

Success Factors For The Intelligent Community

Why are some communities more intelligent and successful than others? the power of effective leadership

flexible and creative collaboration

a focus on long-term sustainability.

Community development faces obstacles –economic, social, political and cultural – and every successful community has found ways to overcome the ones that stand between them and a better future


Key Indicators For The Intelligent Community

The key facets of community development based on information and communications technology: high speed Internet

knowledge workforce development

innovation

digital inclusion and

marketing & advocacy

And how these interact to create a virtuous cycle powering economic growth, citizen engagement and social health of the community


Some Big Questions To Think About

How can a city of fewer than 70,000 stand out in a world of 7,000,000,000 people?

How can we build a high quality of life by intelligently responding to the trends that will affect all of us in the future?

How can we expand our thinking about our options?March 31, 2015 © 2015 Norman Jacknis, Senior Fellow, ICF. All rights reserved 8

Why Think About The Future Today? “A good hockey player plays where the puck is ... a great

player plays where the puck will be.” ― Wayne Gretzky

“If the rate of change on the outside exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is near.” ― Jack Welch, former CEO, General Electric

"We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” ― Roy Amara, past president of The Institute for the Future

“The future is already here. It's just not very evenly distributed.” ― William Gibson, sci-fi novelist and coiner of “cyberspace”

Laying a foundation for a flourishing future takes time.

There are important things to do today to start.March 31, 2015 © 2015 Norman Jacknis, Senior Fellow, ICF. All rights reserved 9

Economic Trends

How Did We Get Where We Are Today?


What Leads To Economic Growth?

Specialization of the skills of people so everyone is producing the most for society

Creation of new knowledge and innovations

Which results in new products/services or enhances productivity in producing existing products/services

These, in turn, depend upon communications and collaboration among many, diverse people

In the 20th century age of industry, cities put many people in close proximity which enabled better communications and collaboration

Which made cities the engines of economic growth


Urban Areas Became Engines Of Wealth

March 31, 2015 © 2015 Norman Jacknis, Senior Fellow, ICF. All rights reserved

Urban areas increased physical

proximity between people

Urban areas had the large

number of workers who were required

in factories

With many people close to

each other, it was easier to exchange

goods/services and innovations

Which increased specialized skills and innovations

that created more wealth

Which brought more people to

the area

12

Business Clusters Developed

The major movie studios locate near each other in Hollywood, 1922


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/09/Hollywood-Studios-1922.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/09/Hollywood-Studios-1922.jpg

Economic Trends

But Things Are Changing


The Study Of Economic Geography Led To Cluster Policies, But …

Princeton University Economics Professor Paul Krugman won the 2008 Nobel Prize for identifying the “new economic geography” (aka cluster theory) some 20-30 years earlier

But in his acceptance speech, he noted changes: “[Clustering] may describe forces that are waning rather

than gathering strength. “

“The data accord with common perception: many of the traditional localizations of industry have declined (think of the Akron rubber industry), and those that have arisen, such as Silicon Valley, don’t seem comparable in scale.”


“Cluster Requiem And The Rise Of Cumulative Growth Theory” 2009 research at the University of North Carolina that

tracked the growth and survival of a cohort of more than 300,000 establishments operating in Pennsylvania from 1997-2007 “Industry cluster theory has … an inability to explain

economic dispersion and the presence of high-growing firms that thrive in non-clustered industries and locations.”

“Firm characteristics are 10-times more powerful than industry and cluster characteristics, and 50-times more powerful than location characteristics, in explaining and predicting establishment-level growth and survival”

A sub-set of businesses systematically accumulate a disproportionate share of employment growth. Roughly 1% of establishments created 169% of all net new jobs added in the state over a ten-year period


Business clusters could be less relevant as drivers of innovation than has been commonly assumed. The Stavanger Centre for Innovation Research analysed 1,600 companies with more than 10 employees located in the five largest Norwegian city-regions. Rather than national clusters, international cooperation or “global pipelines” were identified as the main drivers of innovation.


“If I can make it in New York, I'll make it anywhere”

“Today, 36 percent of daily trades in stocks that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange are actually executed on the exchange, down from about 75 percent nearly four years ago. The rest of are conducted elsewhere, on new electronic exchanges … half of the jobs there have disappeared over the last five years …

“Unlike the Big Board, the new electronic exchanges are virtually unknown outside financial circles. Direct Edge, the largest, is in Jersey City. Another, the BATS Exchange, is based in Lenexa, Kan [picture above]. Both are only about five years old. But each now accounts for about a 10th of daily United States stock trading. “ − October 15, 2009 New York Times Front News Page


Wall Street, New York, New York, USA


Lenexa, Kansas, USA


Downtown Lenexa

20

Even Manufacturing Is Being Decentralized By 3D Printing


Economic Trends

Making A Living By Providing Services & Intangible Products


One Hundred Year Shift In The USA


Thousands of employees and percent of total

Employment 1900

Employment 2000

Percent 1900 Percent 2000

Agriculture 11,680 3,281 43.5 2.4

Goods 7,252 25,710 27.0 18.8

Services 6,832 85,370 25.4 62.5

Government 1,094 22,131 4.1 16.2

Total 26,858 136,492 100.0 100.0

71%

79%

24


In Europe

25

And Canada

“Since the 1970s the Canadian economy has been transformed from one based on industry and mining to one dominated by the service sector. …

“Services account for 66 percent of the nation's economy and employ 74 percent of the country's workforce. Of Canada's skilled workers, 80 percent are employed by the service sector.”— Encyclopedia of the Nations/Canada


At The Apex Of The Industrial Era, The Factory Concentrated Jobs


In The Service Economy, Office Towers Are Supposed To Do The Same


But Where Did All The Office Workers Go?

“Jones Lang LaSalle changes the current rule of thumb concerning office space per employee, shrinking it from 200 sq. ft. per employee to just 50 sq. ft. by 2015.”

“40% of IBM employees work from a location other than an office at IBM.”


Why Is This Happening?

High Speed Internet Makes A Difference


A Communications Network Revolution In The Home

Even more than business, people at home are driving technology innovations


Business Support Services BecomeAccessible Around The GlobeBusiness support services have become within reach of people in more locations than in the past … Between any other part of the globe and people here


High Speed Internet Has Had A Big Economic Impact

For every one percentage point increase in broadband penetration in a state, employment is projected to increase by 0.2 to 0.3 percent per year.

— Brookings Institution

“The increase in local GDP is more than ten-fold the value of the investments in broadband infrastructure. “

— SNG


Numbers That Tell The Story


of economic growth in developed economies came from the Internet over past 15 years

21%

For every job the Internet makes obsolete, it has created 2.6 more

the productivity gain – doing more with the same resources –the Internet provides the average small-to-midsize business

10%

Small-to-midsize businesses that are heavy users of the Internet grow

2x faster

The Impact Is Not All Being Measured

“[GDP] almost inevitably misses some economic

gains from new technologies.”

“these statistics do not tell the whole story. Because

they miss much of what technology does for people’s

well-being.”

“G.D.P. is not a measure of how much value is

produced for consumers”


“Well-connected cities, regardless of their size, are more likely to develop robust regional economies”

“A city that can draw on the resources of the whole world through extensive network connections to other cities, whether it is a metropolis or a hamlet, is likely to thrive.”


Economic Trends

The Game Is Changing


The Game Starts Anew In This Century

There is now an unprecedented opportunity for small cities

Often they have the agility to take advantage of the new opportunities before the bigger cities can


Cities put people in close proximity that led to collaboration, innovation and growth – cities as center of production

Physical proximity is no longer the only way for people to collaborate & innovate – cities are now more centers of living than centers of production


20th Century Industrial Economy

21st Century Digital Economy

The “bigger the city, the better” and quality of life was traded off for sake of growth

Quality of life is now an integral part of the city’s economic strategy




Work was tied to an office, factory, store and employees were not mobile

Work goes to people and they are more able to move where they wish




Big companies concentrated employment

Big companies are more disaggregated:

Global supply chains & outsourcing

Contractors instead of employees

Global presence instead of one main location




Economic Hunting strategy, including the use of incentives to big companies to move jobs

Economic Gardening strategy to develop local companies instead of ever weakening incentives to attract outsiders




Big organizations provided the connections people needed to collaborate on a massive scale

The Internet makes it possible for people to collaborate on a global scale

From Coase’s Theory of the Firm (1937) to Shirky’s “Here Comes Everybody: The Power of Organizing Without Organizations” (2008)

The individual (and fluid teams) become the key economic actors




To make a decent living, you had a 9-5 job in a big company for life

People will need a portfolio of ways to earn a living

And they won’t be on a fixed time clock




High Speed Internet Internet Trends

Visual Communications Intensifies The Effects


Non-Verbal Communications 93% of communication is nonverbal

Especially critical in establishing trust between people

“Seeing Is Believing”

We process visual information 60,000 times faster than text

Mehrabian's communications research 7% of message pertaining to feelings and

attitudes is in the words that are spoken. 38% of message pertaining to feelings and

attitudes is paralinguistic (the way that the words are said).

55% of message pertaining to feelings and attitudes is in facial expression.


Corporate Video-Conferencing Is Rapidly Increasing

Within the next couple of years, about two thirds of businesses will have adopted some kind of telepresence solution

– Forrester


But We Are Only In The Early Stages Of The Internet’s Development

Not yet today, but by 2030 — A world of high quality visual communication and easy collaboration everywhere, enabling anyone anywhere to virtually meet anyone else anywhere else

… for a flavor of what the future might bring


The Black Eyed Peas in France


It’s Getting More Like Being There


And More


Economic Trends

Re-Thinking Your Economic Strategy


This Is The Key Question For Economic Strategy In Future Decades


When most people can work anywhere, where will they choose to live & work?

59

How Would You Measure A City’sEconomic Success In 2030?

The total revenues of companies that might happen to have an address in the city?

The number of 9-5 jobs in those companies?

Office buildings in “downtown”, but a per capita income of $40,000 per year?

The amount of income and wealth of the city’s residents?Whether or not that income comes from 9-5 jobs in a big company or from royalties on inventions or from a dozen freelance contracts with companies of varying size

No office buildings, but a per capita income of $100,000 per year?


High Speed Internet Is Necessary,But Not Sufficient

ICF communities have learned that deploying high speed Internet itself will not be transformational

It may not even be adopted by many of the people who could obtain high speed Internet

High speed Internet can enable and must be tied in with all the other aspects of community development

What can high speed Internet make possible? …


What Does High Speed Internet Make Possible?

A Platform For Lifelong Learning That Will Increase People’s Income Potential


Students Mentoring Students


Long Distance Music Lessons


edX


• EdX is available to anyone in the world with an internet connection

• Online learners who demonstrate mastery earn a certificate of completion, issued by the "X University" from where the course originated, i.e., HarvardX, MITxor BerkeleyX

65

Coursera


Udacity


University Of The Third Age


Digital Public Library of America


Public Libraries Are A Cost-Effective Guide To Global Innovation The libraries should be tasked to organize the vast

amount of free training and courses online in a range of subjects from business knowledge to technical skills

The public library should be the corporate librarian for entrepreneurs and other innovators

Helping to conduct market research, identify opportunities…


ChattanoogaPublic Library

4th Floor

71


Connecting Residents To Global Economic Opportunities & Business Services


Help Local Enterprises Reach Beyond The Local Area

Consider health care, as an example


Health Maintenance For Chronic Diseases


Health Maintenance For Seniors Who Are Generally Healthy

Vermont Telecare for Rural Health Project

• Two-way interactive exercise class for seniors.

• "We know that exercise is helpful for senior patients, but we can't get to them. And we know that Tai Chi helps keep seniors healthy, increases their well-being and balance.“


Remote Diagnosis


Remote Consultation

Health Presence allows patients to remotely connect with doctors and clinicians for an encounter that rivals a face-to-face meeting

Use in psychological counseling


Robotic Surgery

Becomes remote surgeryMarch 31, 2015 © 2015 Norman Jacknis, Senior Fellow, ICF. All rights reserved 79

Connect Entrepreneurs To The World’s Best Sources Of Business Services

The hidden secret of Silicon Valley

In a networked world, business services to support entrepreneurs & innovators become much more widely available

So entrepreneurs access to high quality videoconferencing and collaboration platforms


Connect Entrepreneurs To The Flow Of Capital

Capital is flowing more freely around the globe

Make sure your entrepreneurs are connected to these sources of funds Beware of old

fashioned investors

Consider new forms of investment


An Entrepreneurial Extension Service Many small businesses need help in learning about

innovations and techniques which will help them succeed in the global, networked economy

Now help can be in person and on the Internet, in part, by recent college graduates


Even Connect Low-Tech Business To The Global Economy


http://www.gov.ns.ca/econ/broadband/connect/

http://www.gov.ns.ca/econ/broadband/connect/


http://www.gov.ns.ca/econ/broadband/connect/success/video_Bait_Bags.asp

http://www.gov.ns.ca/econ/broadband/connect/success/video_Bait_Bags.asp

http://www.baitbags.ca/

http://www.baitbags.ca/


http://www.gov.ns.ca/econ/broadband/connect/success/video_Bay_Hammock_Company.asp

http://www.gov.ns.ca/econ/broadband/connect/success/video_Bay_Hammock_Company.asp


Connecting People To Open Innovation


Innovation Is The Competitive Edge In The 21St Century Economy

But how does innovation happen in a networked world?

Does open innovation provide new opportunities?

What kind of innovation makes the biggest difference?


Innovation Is A Collaborative Act“Creativity is not a solitary endeavor.”

– Ed Catmull, CEO, Pixar

"The secret to creativity is knowing how to hide your sources.”

– Albert EinsteinMarch 31, 2015 © 2015 Norman Jacknis, Senior Fellow, ICF. All rights reserved 90

17th Century Coffee Houses As Hubs Of Innovation …


In This Century … People with new ideas

no longer need to meet in coffee houses

They can innovate and collaborate and share knowledge on the Internet

The old “liquid network” of coffee house discussions is now the global communications network


Why Would A Company Want Open Innovation?

“P&G employs 7,500 people in its R&D division, but there are 1.5 million scientists throughout the world with expertise in P&G’s areas of interest.” — Larry Huston, Procter & Gamble’s former VP of R&D

“More than 50% of P&G innovation comes from external companies of all sizes and from individual entrepreneurs too.”



Opportunities In The Open Innovation Movement

95


98

Don’t Forget About Senior Citizens

“Creativity can be divided into these types -- conceptual and experimental”

The share of entrepreneurs in the 55-64 age group jumped from 14.3 percent in 1996 to 23.4 percent in 2012


http://www.amazon.com/Old-Masters-Young-Geniuses-Creativity/dp/0691133808/

http://www.amazon.com/Old-Masters-Young-Geniuses-Creativity/dp/0691133808/

Research At Great Universities Is Available In Cities Everywhere

Many public leaders are trying to recreate Stanford, MIT, Princeton and the like in their areas

And they are trying to find some secret way of “commercializing” the research at their local universities

You can start with what you have now

The best university research all of the world is available through the Internet

Entrepreneurs already have the skills to commercialize research, as long as they can find that research


100

Two Kinds Of Innovation Yield Different Results

Sustaining innovation

Disruptive Innovation Create a way that gets the

customer’s need served in a way that is not necessarily perfect, but is lower priced than the alternatives …

or where there isn’t any alternative at all – compete against “non-consumption”

Don’t spend too much money on any single innovation


What Does This Mean For Your City?

Sustaining innovations are just normal business And usually mean there is less human work to do in order

to sustain the same level of production

Often happens at higher cost

Growth instead results from disruptive innovations Especially in unmet and, as yet, undiscovered needs

The new work is in these new disruptive innovations: health, education, entertaining experiences, etc., but not in mass produced products that we already know about

Accelerate disruptive innovation Which is what will help your economy grow fast


Your City Should Support A Culture Of Innovation


It’s Necessary To Accept Failures



Delight Residents & Visitors —Inspire Them To Be Creative


Maker Spaces In Public Libraries


Co-Working & “Hacker” Spaces


Hotel Lobby: Unofficial Co-working Space


An Unofficial Work Space Without Walls, But With Electric Outlets


Piano Stairs


Physical/Virtual Collaboration


Any Public Space Becomes An Urban Experience – Even Subways


Video Walls You Touch And Control


Combine The Street And The Screen


Floors Can Be Interactive Displays


Put Your History On The Wall Of A Library


People Can Interact With Animations

A blend of live text message feeds and real-time animation for a train station wall

Seahorse courtship dance animation triggered by text message


What Do You Do With An Old Building In London?


Make It A Portal To Vienna


Take A Wall


And Pump It Up!


Augmented Reality


Urban Design Using Digital Experiences

The common theme of all these previous possibilities is that high speed Internet also enables you to blend the physical existing city with the new and digital

For new and delightful experiences


Let’s Wrap It Up


Be Visionary About Your City

High speed Internet opens up new possibilities for enhanced quality of life in cities

But high speed Internet and technology will only be widely adopted if combined with community building and vision

High speed Internet enables everyone to participate in creating a vibrant community


Success Rests On Three Legs

High speed Internet and technology

A Vision for the community

The right culture and leadership so the community implements the vision


The Transition To The Future Won’t Be Simple, But:

Plan for the future way that most people will earn a living

Shift some investments from the old approach to this new world

Build both physical/communications and human infrastructure

Offer a video, collaboration platform for innovation

Link individuals to a global ecosystem for dependable economic growth

Provide people a quality "experience” so they will stay


Building The Community Of

The 21st CenturyDr. Norman Jacknis+1 (914) [email protected]: njacknis.tumblr.comTwitter: @NormanJacknis


Thank You!

135

new westminster keynote - norman jacknis

Technology

successful community

global network icf

intelligent community

community acceleratorwe

economic prosperity

economic trendshow

flourishing future

joint development