NEWYork:2021StateLatinoGDPExecutiveSummaryThe2021StateLatinoGDPReport1buildsonprioranalysisbyprovidingstate-levelcalculationsofthetotaleconomiccontributionofLatinoslivingintheUnitedStates.Arizona,California,Florida,Illinois,NewJersey,NewMexico,NewYork,andTexascollectivelycontainnearlythree-quartersoftheNation’sLatinopopulation.Thisreportprovidesdetailedanalysisofthestate-levelLatinoGDPsforthese8states,benchmarkedagainstthebroaderU.S.LatinoGDP.

The2020LDCU.S.LatinoGDPReport2providesafactualviewofthelargeandrapidlygrowingeconomiccontributionofLatinoslivingintheUnitedStates.Inthatreport,weestimatetheU.S.LatinoGDPbasedonadetailed,bottom-upconstructionwhichleveragespubliclyavailabledatafrommajorU.S.agencies.Atthetimeofitsrelease,themostrecentyearforwhichthecorebuildingblockwasavailableis2018.Thus,thereportprovidesasnapshotofthetotaleconomiccontributionofU.S.Latinosinthatyear.

AsasummarystatisticfortheeconomicperformanceofU.S.Latinos,the2018LatinoGDPisbreath-taking.Thetotaleconomicoutput(orGDP)ofLatinosintheUnitedStateswas$2.6trillionin2018.IfLatinoslivingintheUnitedStateswereanindependentcountry,theU.S.LatinoGDPwouldbetheeighthlargestGDPintheworld.TheU.S.LatinoGDPislargereventhantheGDPsofItaly,BrazilorSouthKorea.

Whileimpressiveforitssize,theU.S.LatinoGDPismostnoteworthyforitsextraordinarygrowth.Amongtheworld’s10largestGDPsin2018,theLatinoGDPwasthesinglefastestgrowing.LatinorealGDPgrew21percentfasterthanIndia’sand30percentfasterthanChina’s.Overtheentireperiodfrom2010to2018,theLatinoGDPwasthethirdfastestgrowing,whilethebroaderU.S.economyrankedfifth.LatinoGDPgrewaremarkable74percentfasterthannon-LatinoGDPfrom2010to2018.

AswiththebroaderU.S.Latinocohort,theperformanceofLatinosintheeightstatestargetedinthisreportisextremelyimpressive.Theeightstateshadacombined2018LatinoGDPof$2.0trillion,representing76percentoftheU.S.LatinoGDP.IftheseLatinoswereasinglestate,they

1Forquestionsaboutthisreport,pleasecontact:MatthewFienup,ChiefEconomist,www.clucerf.org,(805)493-3668;DavidHayes-Bautista,ChiefDemographer,www.uclahealth.org/ceslac,(310)794-0663

22020LDCU.S.LatinoGDPReport:https://www.clucerf.org/2020/09/28/2020-ldc-u-s-latino-gdp-report/

wouldproducethesecondlargeststateGDPinthenation.SecondonlytoCalifornia,theirGDPis10percentlargerthantheentireeconomyofTexas.

TheseeightstateLatinoGDPsarelargeevenontheworldstage.Treatedasasingleeconomy,LatinosintheseeightstatesproducegreatereconomicactivitythantheentirecountryofSouthKoreaorBrazil.Latinosintheseeightstatesaretheequivalentoftheworld’s9thlargestGDP.

AprimarycomponentofthedramaticeconomicperformanceofLatinosispersonalconsumption.From2010to2018,realconsumptionamongU.S.Latinosgrew135percentfasterthanNon-Latino.2018aggregateconsumptionamongLatinosinthe8targetstatesis$1.36trillion.Thisrepresentsaconsumptionmarketthatis30percentlargerthantheentireeconomicoutputofthestateofFlorida.Robustconsumptionandrapidconsumptiongrowtharedriven,inturn,byrapidgainsinhumancapitalandstronglaborforceparticipation.

NewYork’s2018LatinoGDPis$202billion,largerthantheentireeconomicoutputofthestateofOklahoma.Thestate’stopthree2018LatinoGDPsectorsare:Education&Healthcare(22.5%oftheN.J.LatinoGDP),Finance&RealEstate(15.3%),andProfessional&BusinessServices(11.5%).AswiththeU.S.LatinoGDP,thelargestcomponentofNewYork’sLatinoGDPispersonalconsumption.Latinoconsumptiontotalednearly$151billioninNewYorkin2018.

LatinosaremakingstrongandconsistentcontributionstoNewYork’spopulationandlaborforce.Infact,wereitnotforLatinos,thepopulationofNewYorkwouldhavecontractedfrom2010to2018.Duringthattime,Latinosaddedanaverageof52,000peopleperyeartothestate’spopulation,whilethepopulationofNon-Latinosshrankbyanaverageof3,500peopleperyear.Latinocontributionstothelaborforceareequallyimpressive.From2010-18thenumberofLatinosinthestate’slaborforcegrewnearly14percent.Duringthatsametime,thenumberofNon-Latinosinthelaborforcewasflat,increasingbylessthanonehalfofapercent.

AswedointheU.S.LatinoGDPreport,wenotethattheimportanceoflaborforcegrowthcannotbeoverstated.AccordingtoFederalReserveeconomists,thenumberofpeopleretiringintheU.S.isforecasttoincreasesubstantiallyoverthenextyear,peakingin2022atcloseto350,000mostlynon-LatinoBaby-Boomersretiringeachmonth.Thisdangerousshortageofworkersisademographiccrisiswhichthreatensthecountry’sabilitytomaintainevenmodesteconomicgrowth.Fortunately,Latinosarealreadywellontheirwaytomitigatingthisdemographictimebomb,addingsubstantialnumberstothepopulationofworkingageadultsandtothelaborforce.

TheeconomiccontributionofLatinosinNewYork,aswithU.S.Latinosbroadly,isdrivenbyrapidgainsinhumancapital,strongworkethic,andapositivehealthprofile.From2010to2018,Latinoeducationalattainmentgrewatarate2.5timesfasterthantheeducationalattainmentofNon-Latinos.Overthose9years,NewYork’sLatinolaborforceparticipationratewasanaverageof1.2percentagepointshigherthanNon-Latinos.In2018,Latinolaborforceparticipationwas1.5percentagepointshigher.LatinosinNewYorkalsoboastlowerage-adjustedmortalityratesacrosstheleadingcausesofdeath.NewYorkLatinos’age-adjustedmortalityrateis30percentlowerthanthestate’sWhiteNon-Latinosforcancerand25percentlowerforheartdisease.NewYorkLatinosenjoygreaterlongevity,withalifeexpectancythatisnearly1.3yearslongerthanWhiteNon-Latinos(82.4yearscomparedto81.1).

Thefamilyvalues,hardwork,andstronghealthprofileofLatinosinNewYorkandintheU.S.areatremendoussourceofeconomicvitality.