new zealand debt management - the treasury ......5 record high migration… source: statistics nz,...
TRANSCRIPT
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1© The Treasury
OUTLOOK FORTHE NEW ZEALANDGOVERNMENTDEBT MARKET
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22
TODAY
• Economic outlook
• New Zealand Government: risk/reward
• Fiscal priorities
• NZDMO’s strategy
• What to watch for…
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33
1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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4
STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH
Source: Statistics NZ, Treasury
Production-based GDP
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jun-00 Jun-03 Jun-06 Jun-09 Jun-12 Jun-15 Jun-18 Jun-21
Quarterly
Annual average % change
Forecast
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5
RECORD HIGH MIGRATION…
Source: Statistics NZ, Treasury
Net inward migration
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jun-00 Jun-03 Jun-06 Jun-09 Jun-12 Jun-15 Jun-18 Jun-21
Quarterly
Half Year Update Statistics New Zealand
Annual total (000s)
Forecast Assumption
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6
… DRIVING CONSUMER SPENDING…
Source: Statistics NZ, Treasury
Private consumption
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jun-00 Jun-03 Jun-06 Jun-09 Jun-12 Jun-15 Jun-18 Jun-21
Quarterly
Annual average % change
Forecast
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7
… AND HOUSING CONSTRUCTION
Source: Statistics NZ, Treasury
Residential consents and construction
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jun-00 Jun-03 Jun-06 Jun-09 Jun-12 Jun-15 Jun-18 Jun-21
Quarterly
All new dwelling consents (LHS) Residential investment (RHS)
12-month moving sum
Forecast
$millions 2009/10 prices
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8
EXPORT OUTLOOK ALSO POSITIVE
Source: Statistics NZ, Treasury
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Jun-00 Jun-03 Jun-06 Jun-09 Jun-12 Jun-15 Jun-18 Jun-21
Quarterly
Half Year Update services exports Half Year Update TWI (RHS)
$millions
Forecast
Index
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
Jun-00 Jun-03 Jun-06 Jun-09 Jun-12 Jun-15 Jun-18 Jun-21
ForecastForecast
Quarterly
Index
Quarterly
Index
Services exports and exchange rate Goods terms of trade
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9
LABOUR SUPPLY MATCHING DEMAND
Source: Statistics NZ, Treasury
Unemployment and labour force participation rate
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
710.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Jun-00 Jun-03 Jun-06 Jun-09 Jun-12 Jun-15 Jun-18 Jun-21
Quarterly
Unemployment rate Labour force participation rate (RHS, inverted)
%
Forecast
%
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10
INFLATION TO RETURN TO MIDDLE OF BAND
Source: Statistics NZ, Treasury
CPI inflation
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jun-00 Jun-03 Jun-06 Jun-09 Jun-12 Jun-15 Jun-18 Jun-21
Quarterly
Headline inflation Tradables inflation Non-tradables inflation
Annual % change
Forecast
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1111
2. NEW ZEALAND GOVERNMENT: RISK/REWARD
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12
SOLID CREDIT RATINGS
Moody’s
Aaa/Aaa (stable)
Standard & Poor’s
AA+/AA (stable)
Fitch
AA+/AA (stable)
“New Zealand’s Aaa rating is based on the
country’s very high economic strength, very high
institutional and fiscal strength and low
susceptibility to event risk.” 22 Dec 2016
“New Zealand has monetary and fiscal flexibility, a
resilient economy, and institutions conducive to
swift and decisive policy actions.” 19 Jan 2017
“New Zealand’s ‘AA’ rating reflects the country’s
strong macroeconomic policy framework and
prudent fiscal management, reinforced by
governance standards and a business
environment that are rated among the best
globally by the World Bank.” 13 Mar 2017
Source: Moody’s Investor Service, Standard and Poor’s, Fitch Ratings – latest credit assessment
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1313
STABLE POLITICAL AND
INSTITUTIONAL BACKDROP
Source: World Bank, Bloomberg, Moody’s Investor Service, Standard and Poor’s, Fitch Ratings
70
80
90
100Control of Corruption
Government Effectiveness
Political Stability and Absenceof Violence/Terrorism
Regulatory Quality
Rule of Law
Voice and Accountability
New Zealand Sovereigns rated AA/Aa2 and higher (average)
Worldwide Governance Indicators – World Bank (percentile rank)
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1414
Gross Sovereign Debt to GDP
Source: Bloomberg
STRONG BALANCE SHEET
0 50 100 150 200 250
JapanGreece
ItalyPortugalBelgium
SpainCanadaFrance
United KingdomAustria
SloveniaIreland
HungaryUnited States
GermanyFinland
NetherlandsIsrael
IcelandSloval Republic
MexicoAustralia
KoreaPoland
SwedenCzech Republic
DenmarkLatvia
SwitzerlandNew Zealand
TurkeyNorway
LuxembourgChile
Estonia
% GDP
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1515
10-year Nominal Bonds
Source: Bloomberg
ATTRACTIVE NOMINAL YIELDS
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Mar 2011 Mar 2012 Mar 2013 Mar 2014 Mar 2015 Mar 2016 Mar 2017
Yield %
NZ Aus US Germany Japan Switzerland
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1616
10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds
Source: Bloomberg
ATTRACTIVE REAL YIELDS
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
NZ Australia US UK Germany Japan
Real yield Break-even inflation
%
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1717Source: Bloomberg
GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD CURVES
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0 5 10 15 20 25
%
Term (years)
Nominal bonds Inflation-indexed bonds (real yield)
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1818
3. FISCAL PRIORITIES: DEC 2016
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1919
FISCAL PRIORITIES
• Previous fiscal priorities:
– Achieve operating surplus in 2014/15
– Reduce net government debt to below 20% of GDP by 2020
• Current fiscal priorities:
– Maintain rising operating surpluses
– Reduce net government debt to around 20% of GDP in 2020
– Reduce net debt to within a range of 0 per cent to 20% of
GDP in the long term
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2020
Source: The Treasury
2014/15 SURPLUS ACHIEVED
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
NZD billion
Operating Balance (ex gains and losses)
Forecast
"The Government has set out a
clear plan for the next three years, which involves returning tobudget surplus in 2014/15."
Budget Policy Statement, 16 February 2012
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2121
OUTLOOK FOR NET DEBT
Source: The Treasury
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
NZD billion
Net Core Crown Debt % Nominal GDP (RHS)
Forecast
% GDP
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2222
Source: The Treasury
STOCK AND FLOWS:
3-4 TIMES PRE-GFC
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
NZD billionNZD billion
Annual bond issuance Total bonds oustanding (RHS)
Forecast
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23
4. NZDMO’S STRATEGY
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2424
FUNDING STRATEGY
• Balance Sheet Management approach
– Extend duration of the debt portfolio
– Reduce overall fiscal variability
– Reduce refinancing risk
– The role of Inflation-indexed bonds
• Build and maintain liquidity
– Diversify investor base
– Encourage intermediary participation
• Focus on domestic market issuance
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2525
AVERAGE DURATION EXTENDED
Source: The Treasury
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Mar-2012 Mar-2013 Mar-2014 Mar-2015 Mar-2016 Mar-2017
Years to maturity
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2626
PORTFOLIO COMPOSITION REDUCES FISCAL
VARIABILITY, REFINANCING RISK
82%
16%
2%
October 2012
76%
5%
19%
March 2017
Source: The Treasury
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2727
INFLATION-INDEXED BONDS -
OVERVIEW
Source: The Treasury
Instrument New Zealand Government
Inflation-Indexed Bonds
Total outstanding $14.6 billion
% of total bond portfolio 17.8%
Maturities Sep-25, Sep-30, Sep-35, Sep-40
Currency NZD
Domestic Currency Rating AA+/Aaa/AA+ (all stable)
Linked to Consumers Price Index (CPI),
with no floor in place
Primary Issuance Issued in multiples of $1m via
syndication and tender
Fees and Taxation No fees, AIL or NRWT applies to
coupon payments*
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2828
INFLATION-INDEXED BONDS -
STRATEGY
• Role of inflation-indexed bonds in the portfolio
– Extend and maintain duration of the debt portfolio
– Diversify the investor base
– Reduce overall fiscal variability through the cycle
• Issuance strategy
– Focus issuance in longest maturity
– Syndicated launch, blackout period, regular tenders
– Maintain capacity below $6 billion technical limit
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2929
INFLATION-INDEXED BONDS –
ISSUING THROUGH THE CYCLE
Source: The Treasury
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016
Outstanding IIBs 10yr break-even inflation Mid-point of OCR band $M%
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3030
Source: The Treasury
MARCH 2013: LIMITED CAPACITY ACROSS
MATURITIES
10.010.7
1.2
11.3 11.511.1
8.6
2.01.3
0.7 0.50.9
3.4
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2013 2015 2016 2017 2019 2021 2023
Outstanding - Nominal Outstanding - IIB Available capacity
NZD billion
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3131
Source: The Treasury
MARCH 2017: ISSUANCE CAPACITY ACROSS
MATURITIES
7.062
11.455
7.290
11.059
8.945
2.850
5.700
3.2502.450
5.200
4.2003.700
1.500
0.545
4.710
0.941
3.055
9.150
0.800
6.300
1.800
8.750
2.300
9.550
4.500
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Dec 17 Mar 19 Apr 20 May 21 Apr 23 Apr 25 Sep 25 Apr 27 Sep 30 Apr 33 Sep 35 Apr 37 Sep 40
Outstanding - Nominal Outstanding - IIB Available capacity
NZD billion
Nom
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3232
SUPPORTING PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
MARKET LIQUIDITY
• Quarterly tender schedule announcements include fixed amounts and specific maturities
• New bonds launched via syndication
• Tender issuance into benchmark lines
• Focus on domestic market
• Manage cash flows around upcoming bond maturities
• Broadly match Australian Commonwealth Government bond maturities
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3333
ENCOURAGE INTERMEDIARY PARTICIPATION
• Investors need an efficient, reliable secondary market
• Intermediaries make the secondary market
• Efficient, well-functioning market benefits all
participants
• NZDMO’s actions are intended to support efficient,
sustainable functioning of both primary and secondary
markets
• NZDMO supports intermediaries who consistently
support secondary market liquidity
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3434
Source: RBNZ
CONSISTENT INCREASE IN OFFSHORE AND
DOMESTIC DEMAND
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Estimated overseas holdings Estimated domestic holdings Proportion held for non-residents (RHS)
NZD million %
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3535
OFFSHORE DEMAND
– Central bank mandates
– Demand from duration players
– New investors in inflation indexed bonds
DOMESTIC DEMAND
– Prudential requirements drive domestic bank
balance sheet demand
– KiwiSaver
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3636
5. WHAT TO WATCH FOR…
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3737
• Latest forecasts:
Half Year Economic & Fiscal Update– Updated bond programme for 2016/17
– New Sep 2040 announced (subsequently launched)
– Forecast bond programmes to 2020/21
• Budget set for 25 May 2017
• General election set for 23 Sep 2017
• Ongoing communications:– Economic and Fiscal Updates: Budget (May), Half-Year(Dec) and Pre-Election
– Quarterly bond tender schedule released near the end of March, June, September, December
– Updates related to syndication of new bonds
– Media Statement distribution list for key communications – email [email protected]