Newcastle University, England, UK

Peter Selman

Newcastle University, UK

pfselman@yahoo.co.uk

June 2015

Twenty years of the Hague Convention: a Statistical Review

A Demographic History of ICA

• Although intercountry adoption is often seen as starting with the adoptions from South Korea after the Korean war, there were also many adoptions during and following World War 2, while the movement of children to distant lands was a feature of British policy from the 19th century to the 1960s – the story of the child migrants. So the period 1995-2015 is just a small part of the demographic history.

• Since the end of WW2 I estimate at least one million children have moved to another country for international adoption.

1963 1970 1980 1987 1995 2004 20130

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Intercountry Adoption 1963-2013

WORLDKOREA

Sources of Data for Estimates

• Few countries sending children for ICA have kept detailed records over the whole period in which such adoptions took place. An exception is Korea, which records 165,000 international adoptions since 1953.

• For receiving States longest sequences are for USA and Sweden. My estimates are based on data from 20-24 states.

SOUTH KOREA 1953-2010

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 20050

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Total Intercountry Adoptions = 165,000

Ann

ual n

umbe

r of

Ado

ptio

ns

Intercountry Adoption 1990-991990 1993 1995 1997 1999 1990-99

USA

7,093 7,377 8,987 12,743 16,363 102,264France

2,956 2,790 3,035 3,537 3,597 31,703Italy

n/a 1,896 2,161 2,019 2,177 14,788Canada

320 1,740 2,020 1,795 2,020 15,694Sweden

1,113 934 895 834 1,019 9,670

TOTAL 14,037(11)

17,778(15)

22,723(19)

26,788(20)

32,974(22)

222,758(11-22)

1985 1995 2005 2013 -

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

KOREA 1976-2013; CHINA 1990-2013

CHINA

Axis Title

• More than 380,000 children were adopted world-wide to 23/4 countries between 2000 and 2009, the most for any decade in history.

• From 2010-2013 there were a further 88,000 – and 2014 total seems likely to be 12-13,000 so that we can say that since 2000 there have been at least 480,000, nearly half my total estimate of ICA since 1945.

• From 1995 – 2014 total would be over 600,000.

ICA in the 21st Century

Intercountry Adoption 2001-20132001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2000-13

USA 19,224 22,884 19,613 12,149 7,094 234,032

Spain 3,428 5,641 3,648 2,891 1,191 47.636

France3,094 4,079 3,162 3,508 1,343 43,676

Italy1,797 3,402 3,420 4,130 2,825 42,048

Canada1,774 1,949 1,715 1,660 1,243 23,579

TOTAL 36,286(23)

45,383(23)

37,256(24)

28,843(24)

16,147(24)

469,133 (23/4)

ICA after the Hague Convention

• In summary the ten years after the convention came into force saw the largest rise in inter-country adoption in the 70 years since WW2.

• However, since 2004 there has been a dramatic decline and by 2013 the annual total was the lowest since 1993 .

• In the tables below States of origin which have ratified the convention are in CAPITALS

The Impact of the Hague on Numbers

• Preliminary Document No. 3 looks at this possibility for both receiving States and States of origin (para 61-75) and notes that a decrease in numbers occurred in receiving States joining the convention after 2004 – e.g. Ireland and the USA - but that numbers also fell in most States joining in the preceding decade who had typically experienced an increase after ratification.

• The next two slides look at States of origin.

States with an increase after joining

State Year of EIF

Previous 3 yrs

Subseqent 3 years

Last 3 years2011-2013

BURKINA FASO 1996 81 101 225MOLDOVA 1998 199 350 33

SOUTH AFRICA 2003 454 735 498HUNGARY 2005 265 348 421

GUATEMALA 2003 6,500 11,532 73MALI 2006 304 462 320

KENYA 2007 108 189 283

States with a decrease after joining

State Year of EIF

Previous 3 yrs

Subseqent 3 years

Last 3 yrs2011-2013

CHILE 1999 509 187 335

LATVIA 2002 417 329 391

CHINA 2006 35,830 23,625 11,896

VIET NAM 2012 2,479 1,130

MADAGASCAR 2004 1,020 427 162

CAMBODIA 2007 620 398 93

KAZAKHSTAN 2010 1,869 245 245

The Decline in ICA 2009 - 2013

• The total number of adoptions fell from 45,383 in 2004 to 29,482 in 2009 – a fall of 35%.

• In the next five years the annual total fell further to 16,147 in 2013 - a decline of 45 per cent.

• The next slide shows how this varied between the major receiving States

Receiving States 2009-2013

2009 2011 2013 % Change 2009 to 2013

DENMARK 496 338 174 - 65 %

SPAIN 3,006 2,573 1,191 - 60%

FRANCE 3,017 1,995 1,343 - 55%

ALL STATES 29,482 23,551 16,147 - 45 %

USA 12,753 9,320 7,094 - 44 %

CANADA 1,695 1,513 1,243 - 37 %

ITALY 3,964 4,022 2,825 - 29 %

Top 9 States of Origin : 1980-2013

1980-89 1998 2004 2010 2013

Korea

India

Colombia

Brazil

Sri Lanka 

Chile

Philippines

Guatemala

Peru

Russia

China

Viet Nam

Korea

COLOMBIA

INDIA

Guatemala

ROMANIA

Brazil

China

Russia

Guatemala

Korea

Ukraine

COLOMBIA

Ethiopia

Haiti

INDIA

CHINA

Ethiopia

Russia

Haiti

COLOMBIA

Viet Nam

Korea

Ukraine

INDIA

CHINA

Ethiopia

Russia

Ukraine

Congo

COLOMBIA

Philippines

Haiti

BULGARIA

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 20130

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Top 4 States of Origin 2003-2013

China

Russia

Guatemala

Ethiopia

An

nu

al

Nu

mb

er

of

Ad

op

tio

ns

Intercountry Adoptions from four continents – as % of all

2004 2007 2010 2013

ASIA 42% 40% 36% 35%

EUROPE 31% 21% 20% 23%

Latin America 17% 23% 19% 12%

AFRICA 7% 13% 22% 28%

Adoptions from Asia• Since 1998 China has been the most important

source of children worldwide: 140,000 adopted between 1992 and 2013.

• Until 1990 Korea was the main source of children for ICA and by 2013 had sent more than 165,000. In the 1980s 3 of the top 5 states of origin were Asian: Korea, India & Sri Lanka.

• In 2004 42 per cent of adoptions were from Asia but by 2013 this had fallen to 35 per cent.

1976 1980 1990 2000 2010 -

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000 KOREA 1976-2010: CHINA 1990-

2011

KOREACHINA

NU

MB

ER

OF

AD

OP

TIO

NS

Adoptions from Asia 2003-2013

2003 2005 2007 2010 2013 2003-13

CHINA 11,231 14,483 8,748 5,429 3,406 86,873

Korea 2,332 2,121 1,226 1,125 227 15,623

VIET NAM931 1,198 1,698 1,260 295 11,379

INDIA 1,169 875 1,013 607 351 8,438

PHILIPPINES412 508 571 496 534 5,448

THAILAND 489 466 442 303 306 4,236

All Asia17,608 20,559 14,767 10,238 5,566 142,273

CHINA 2003-2013

Country 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2014

USA 6,857 7,903 5,453 3,000 2,589 2,306 2,040

Spain 1,043 2,753 1,059 573 677 293

Canada 1,115 960 662 377 288 216 157

Netherlands 567 666 365 283 197 136 137

Sweden 373 462 280 248 107 59 50

France 360 458 176 102 87 99

Italy 0 0 0 23 142 161

TOTAL 11,231 14,483 8,748 5,012 4,373 3,406

INDIA 1998-2013

Country 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 2014

USA 478 466 320 228 119 136

Italy 194 102 136 148 76

Canada 179 127 36 54 20 36

Denmark 120 93 30 7 3

Spain 97 109 79 35 7

Sweden 78 60 38 23 5 7

TOTAL 1,618 1,247 846 627 351

Eastern Europe 2003-20132003 2004 2008 2013

Russia 7,737 9,384 4,132 1,793

Ukraine 2,052 2,021 1,577 642

BULGARIA 965 387 140 411

Belarus 656 616 7 6

ROMANIA 471 289 0 15

POLAND 347 420 408 304

LITHUANIA 85 103 127 77

LATVIA 67 127 90 131ALL EUROPE 13,189 14,011 7,105 3,777

RUSSIA 2004-20132004 2005 2007 2011 2013 2014

US (FY) 5,865 4,639 2,310 970 250 2

Spain 1,618 1,262 955 712 350

Italy 738 628 492 781 730France 445 357 402 286 185Germany 189 111 195 231 66 46

Israel 95 73 108 102 67

Total 9,384 7,493 4,881 3,424 1,793

Intercountry Adoption from Africa

• For many years intercountry adoption from Africa was rare.

• However, the growing demand for young infants - and fall in numbers from many other States of origin – has changed all that, notably in Ethiopia, which sent 4,575 children in 2009.

• Numbers have fallen in most countries since then but rose between 2010 and 2013 in Uganda (82 to 292) and Congo RD (from 181 to 587). Congo has now suspended international adoptions.

% of Adoptions from Africa

2003 2005 2007 2009 2013

All countries: % of adoptions from Africa

6 % 8 % 13 % 22 % 28 %

% of adoptions to USA from Africa2 % 4 % 9 % 23 % 30 %

% of adoptions to France from Africa24 % 26 % 29 % 33 % 42%

% of adoptions to Spain from Africa 4 % 5 % 15 % 26 % 23 %

TOP AFRICAN STATES 2012-3

2013 2012 2009 2007 2003

Ethiopia 2,005 2,800 4,575 3,034 855

Congo DR 587 518 156 65 26

Uganda 292 249 74 57 12

Nigeria 243 266 185 83 64

Sth AFRICA 222 173 292 212 188

Ghana 190 186 121 58 18

Mali 13 154 196 158 136

All Africa 4,450 5,292 6,510 4,820 2,344

Standardised Rates 2009

AFRICA Adoptions per 1,000

births

OtherCountries

Adoptions per 1,000

births

Peak rate(year)

Ethiopia 1.28 HAITI 4.52 9.6 (2010)

Ghana 0.5 Ukraine 3.24 5.0 (2003)

Cote d’Ivoire 0.4 Korea 3.16 13.3 (1985)

MALI 0.35 Russia 2.59 7.7 (2004)

S AFRICA 0.27 Guatemala 1.75 10.8 (2007)

Congo RD 0.05 CHINA 0.28 0.8 (2005)

Nigeria 0.03 INDIA 0.03 0.05 (2003)

Adoption from Latin America

• In the 1980s six of the top 10 sending countries were from Latin America. In 2008 there were three Guatemala, Colombia and Haiti; by 2013 only one: Colombia.

• By 2008, Haiti had became a major source for France, Canada, the Netherlands and the USA , peaking in 2010 after the earthquake.

• Brazil still sends 3-500 children a year but most are older or have special needs.

• Chile and El Salvador send less than 100 a year, compared to 5,000+ and 2,000+ respectively between 1980 and 1989.

Latin America 2003-20132003 2005 2007 2010 2013 2000-13

GUATEMALA 2,676 3,873 4,854 58 26 24,164

COLOMBIA 1,750 1,472 1,635 1,828 566 16,152

HAITI 1,049 922 755 2,489 546 11,124

BRAZIL 472 479 485 380 241 4,691

PERU 114 174 171 24 111 1,577

BOLIVIA 274 252 152 73 22 1,564

MEXICO 122 163 181 117 37 1,354

The Changing Profile of ICA

• “Special Needs” adoption is becoming more common and there are a number of other characteristics of international adoptions which have changed alongside the global decline in numbers – older age of children placed and increased number of sibling groups.

Age of Children Adopted in Key receiving States 2005-2013

2005 2009 2013% over

5% under

1% over

5% under

1% over

5% under

1

Italy 47% 6% 58% 7% 53% 5%

France 24% 32% 34% 21% 43% 8%

USA 16% 42% 25% 25% n/a n/a

Iceland 6% 17% 29% 6% n/a n/a

Australia 8% 47% 9% 37% 19% 22%

SPECIAL NEEDS ADOPTION

• For the 2010 Hague Special Commission, states were asked to indicate how many of the children adopted had “special needs”, defined as

• “those who may be suffering from a behaviour disorder or trauma, physically or mentally disabled, older children (usually above 7 years of age) or are part of a sibling group”

• There remains a lack of agreement about what exactly the term covers – Italy has ‘speciale’ and ‘particolare’

• The issue of special needs adoption is seen as a key topic for this Special Commission

Children with special needs- selected sending countries (Hague)

2005 2009 2013

CHILE 100% 100% 75%

LATVIA 53% 80% 97%

ALBANIA 59% 66% n/a

LITHUANIA 30% 71% 71%

CHINA 9% 49% n/a

% of Children Adopted from China with special needs (Hague)

2005 2007 2009

Sweden 6% 25% 69%Netherlands 13% 42% 66%

USA 14% 42% 61%All States 9% 30% 49%

France 6% 13% 34%Norway 0.1% 7% 28%Spain 0.1% 4% 9%