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NEW FRONTIERS SPECIAL FOCUS: Southeast Asia Industrial & Logistics PROSPECTS FOR REAL ESTATE ALONG THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

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Page 1: NewFrontiers Report FIN - Knight Frank · 2019-07-16 · return prospects. China’s Belt and Road initiative therefore presents an attractive opportunity for the Southeast Asian

NEW FRONTIERS

SPECIAL FOCUS:Southeast Asia Industrial & Logistics

PROSPECTS FOR REAL ESTATE ALONGTHE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

Page 2: NewFrontiers Report FIN - Knight Frank · 2019-07-16 · return prospects. China’s Belt and Road initiative therefore presents an attractive opportunity for the Southeast Asian

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10

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9

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P G . 0 1

FOREWORD

BELT AND ROAD INDEX 2019

MARKET UPDATE

PHILIPPINES

THAILAND

MALAYSIA

CAMBODIA

METHODOLOGY

NEW FRONTIERS: SUMMARY

BRIGHT INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK

TAPERING SUPPLY TO KEEPRENTS IN CHECK

ON TRACK DESPITE THE DETOUR

MAJOR RECENT SOUTHEAST ASIABRI DEALS

MAP

INDUSTRIAL OVERVIEW

NEW FRONTIERS Special Focus: Southeast Asia Industrial & Logistics

CONTENTS

RANKING THE MARKETS

CONTACTS

THE BELT AND ROAD INDEX (BARI)

ON THE RISE

NEW FRONTIERS KEY CONTACTS

TABLE

MAJOR RECENT SOUTHEAST ASIABRI DEALS

Page 3: NewFrontiers Report FIN - Knight Frank · 2019-07-16 · return prospects. China’s Belt and Road initiative therefore presents an attractive opportunity for the Southeast Asian

P G . 0 2

NEW FRONTIERS: SUMMARY

NEW FRONTIERS Special Focus: Southeast Asia Industrial & Logistics

PORT KLANG, MALAYSIA

The Belt and Road Initiative is helping lift Southeast Asian infrastructure through new ports, railroads and highways. Increased connectivity through shipping and overland trade routes is likely to provide opportunities in the logistics, manufacturing and industrial markets.

Launched in 2013, the Bel t and Road In i t iat ive (BRI ) is China’s p lat-form for mult i latera l cooperat ion which wi l l create new economic l inks and improve i ts business networks across the globe. Of the s ix economic corr idors that were ident i f ied, th is report delves into the Mar i t ime Si lk Road that con-nect Southeast Asia to India and the Europe Middle East and Afr ican region; and gives fur ther ins ights into how the BRI has inf lu-enced the industr ia l markets across Southeast Asia .

This edi t ion includes the updated Knight Frank Bel t and Road Index(BARI ) which ranks 66 BRI-re lated countr ies by thei r economic

potent ia l , demographic advan-tage, inf rastructure development, inst i tut ional ef fect iveness, market accessibi l i ty and resi l ience to natura l d isasters; fur ther detai ls on our methodology can be found on page 9.

Focusing on the Southeast Asian countr ies, S ingapore reta ins i ts top posi t ion fo l lowed by Malaysia which mainta ined i ts top ten status in 9th . Improvements were seen with Thai land and Phi l ippines who moved up f ive and s ix p laces to 26th and 44th respect ively on better inf rastructure development and inst i tut ional ef fect iveness metr ics, whi le Cambodia moved up two places on improved market accessibi l i ty metr ics.

A big dr iver behind the success of the Mar i t ime Si lk Road is the inf ra-structure needed to “connect thedots” across a h ighly f ragmented and rura l region. This includes bui ld ing ports and negot iat ingspecia l economic zones a long

major coastal regions and lay ing ei ther ra i l or expressway t ransport networks connect ing these new economic hubs to the country ’s capi ta l . Over the past f ive years s ince the BRI ’s launch, US$59. 25

bi l l ion in Chinese - l inked capi ta l has been invested across the Southeast Asian t ransportat ion , real estate and logist ics sectors; a lmost 3.5 t imes the US$17.1 b i l l ion invested in the f ive years pr ior to BRI .

These in i t iat ives have breathed new l i fe into the industr ia l and logist ics real estate sectors across the Southeast Asian mar-kets by provid ing new ei ther sources of demand or gentr i fy ing older stock . With expectat ions for more inf rastructure investments a long the Mar i t ime Si lk Road, the out look for the industr ia l real estate sector wi th in the Southeast Asian markets looks promising over the next three to f ive years.

Page 4: NewFrontiers Report FIN - Knight Frank · 2019-07-16 · return prospects. China’s Belt and Road initiative therefore presents an attractive opportunity for the Southeast Asian

P G . 0 3NEW FRONTIERS Special Focus: Southeast Asia Industrial & Logistics

Source: Knight Frank Research

SINGAPOREUNITED ARAB EMIRATES

NEW ZEALANDCHINAQATAR

ESTONIASOUTH KOREA

OMANMALAYSIA

CZECH REPUBLICBAHRAIN

INDIAVIETNAM

ISRAELHUNGARY

POLANDSLOVENIA

BHUTANBRUNEI

SLOVAKIAGEORGIA

MONGOLIALITHUANIAMALDIVES

LATVIATHAILAND

ALBANIACROATIA

INDONESIAMONTENEGROSAUDI ARABIA

ROMANIABULGARIA

LAOSSOUTH AFRICA

CAMBODIASERBIA

KUWAITKAZAKHSTAN

TURKEYSRI LANKA

ETHIOPIAJORDAN

PHILIPPINESMYANMAR

BANGLADESHMOLDOVAARMENIA

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINAEGYPT

TURKMENISTANRUSSIA

KYRGYZSTANAZERBAIJAN

LEBANONPAKISTANBELARUS

NEPALUKRAINE

UZBEKISTANTAJIKISTAN

IRANTIMOR-LESTE

YEMENIRAQ

AFGHANISTAN

BELT & ROAD INDEX 2019

123456789

10111213141516171819

2021

22232425262728293031

32333435363738394041

42434445464748495051

52535455565758596061

6263646566

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

69.0 58.2 57.9 57.3 56.9 54.6 54.5 54.2 54.1

53.3 53.2 52.6 52.5 52.4 51.8 51.8 51.7

50.5 50.4 50.4 49.9 49.6 49.5 49.3 48.7 48.3 48.0 47.7 47.7 47.6 46.8 46.5 46.4 46.1

45.3 44.6 44.0 43.3 43.1 43.1

43.0 42.7 42.7 42.4 42.0 41.2

40.4 40.3 39.9 39.5 39.2 38.5 37.8 37.6 37.1

35.9 35.7 35.6 35.5 35.0 34.3 33.7 30.7 27.4 26.5 26.0

RANKINDEX COUNTRY1

6

11

31

28

30

38

5043

2018 RANK

SOUTHEAST ASIA

Page 5: NewFrontiers Report FIN - Knight Frank · 2019-07-16 · return prospects. China’s Belt and Road initiative therefore presents an attractive opportunity for the Southeast Asian

NEW FRONTIERS Special Focus: Southeast Asia Industrial & Logistics P G . 0 4

Established in 1967, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is an intergovernmental organisation formed by ten Southeast Asian nations to facilitate economic, political and securi-ty cooperation among its member states. These ten countries have a total population 661 million, which accounts for 8.6% of the world’s population, and a total 2017 GDP of US$2.76 trillion or 3.4% of the world’s GDP. In comparison, the European Union with its 513 million population or 6.7% of the world’s population has a combined 2017 GDP of US$17.3 trillion or 21.4% of the world’s GDP. While there are several key differences between these two similar-sized regions, the extensive and efficient transport infrastructure connections in the European Union stands in stark contrast to South-east Asia, where a lack of infrastructure remains a major hurdle to economic expansion.

The authorities within Southeast Asia have recog-nised this and have themselves embarked on bold infrastructure plans, for example Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor and Philippines’ “Build, build, build” policy. However, many lack the necessary fiscal strength given the large upfront capital commitments required and the difficulty in attracting private enterprises given the long dated return prospects. China’s Belt and Road initiative

therefore presents an attractive opportunity for the Southeast Asian countries as both sides share common goals. Notable examples in recent years have been the US$2.1 billion highway in Cambodia that will cut the five-hour travel time between capi-tal Phnom Penh and Sihanoukville Port by 50%, and the US$2.7 billion high-speed rail project in Bangkok that will form part of the rail link between China’s Kunming and Singapore.

With all this new infrastructure being built, investor interest in the industrial sector has increased in recent years, especially from cross-border inves-tors. Between 2009 and 2015, cross border invest-ments into the Southeast Asian industrial sector hit a high of US$330 million, while the market share of total industrial investments within the region capped out at 22%. However, from 2016 onwards when several large infrastructure agreements were signed under the BRI banner, interest from cross-border investors saw a significant increase, hitting a peak of US$1.4 billion with a 72% market share (of total industrial investments) in 2017. In brief, the weight of capital interest has benefitted the Southeast Asian industrial markets, which we detail in this report, by driving rapid development, the gentrification of aging stock and rental growth in most markets across the region.

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

US

D M

illio

ns

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

S O U T H E A S T A S I A I N D U S T R I A LC R O S S B O R D E R I N V E S T M E N T S

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

CROSS - BORDER VOLUME (US$mn) CROSS - BORDER SHARE (%)

SOUTHEAST ASIAINDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS OVERVIEW

Source: Knight Frank Research and Real Capital AnalyticsAs of Q4 2018

0 50 100 150 200

A S I A P A C I F I CW A R E H O U S E R E N T S

SINGAPORE

TOKYO

PHILIPPINES

SHANGHAI

THAILAND

MALAYSIA

CAMBODIA

USD psm pa

Page 6: NewFrontiers Report FIN - Knight Frank · 2019-07-16 · return prospects. China’s Belt and Road initiative therefore presents an attractive opportunity for the Southeast Asian

MAJOR RECENT SOUTHEAST ASIAN BRI DEALS

NEW FRONTIERS Special Focus: Southeast Asia Industrial & Logistics P G . 0 5

CAMBODIA

LAOS

HIGHWAY

DEEP SEA PORT

HIGH SPEED RAIL

REAL ESTATE, OFFICE

ROAD & TUNNEL PROJECT

LAND RECLAMATION & PORT BUILDING

THAILAND

PHILIPPINES

I N D O N E S I A

M A L A Y S I A

SINGAPORE

Source: Knight Frank Research and The American Enterprise Institute

TO INDIA,AFRICA

AND EUROPE

Page 7: NewFrontiers Report FIN - Knight Frank · 2019-07-16 · return prospects. China’s Belt and Road initiative therefore presents an attractive opportunity for the Southeast Asian

MAJOR RECENT SOUTHEAST ASIAN BRI DEALS

P G . 0 6NEW FRONTIERS Special Focus: Southeast Asia Industrial & Logistics

COUNTRY SUB-REGION DATE TYPE HOW MUCH SUMMARY OPPORTUNITY

VIENTIANE

VIENTIANE

PHNOM PENH

MANILA

DAVAO

BANGKOK

PENANG

MELAKA

KUALA LUMPURTO KELANTAN

JAKARTATO BANDUNG

2016 Sep

2018 Apr

2018 Jan

2018 Nov

2016 Oct

2017 Dec

2014 Mar

2016 Oct

2016 Nov

2017 Apr

LAOS

LAOS

CAMBODIA

PHILIPPINES

PHILIPPINES

THAILAND

MALAYSIA

MALAYSIA

MALAYSIA

INDONESIA

US$4.15 bn

US$1.2 bn

US$2.1 bn

US$270 mn

US$200 mn

US$2.7 bn

US$1.3 bn

US$1.9 bn

US$2.1 bn

US$3.2 bn

Part of the Kunming-Singapore railway

First highway in Laos linking capital Vientiane to Boten, bordering China.

New four lane highway linking capital Phnom Penh to Sihanoukville port town.

Manila to Bicol railway

New land used for new port and real estate

Part of the Kunming-Singapore railway

Undersea tunnel to link Penang Island to mainland

Part of Melaka Gateway project.

Part of the East Coast Rail Link project.

Highspeed rail linking Indonesia's two major cities.

The railway is expected to spur new developments including industrial parks and hotels for increased tourism. Travel time between kunming and vientiane is cut from 3 days to 3 hours.

The new expressway will spur new developments such as industrial parks for Chinese manufacturers looking outside of China.

Part of the government's long-term industrial development plan. Sihanoukville will progress to be the largest industrial hub in Cambodia; will bode well for its real estate market.

Railway will cut the current 12-hour car travel time down to six hours. Increase flow of shipments from the region which will stimulate industrial real estate, while increased tourism should benefit the hotel sector.

Boost the attractiveness of Davao as a industrial and shipping hub for the Philippines which will attract both domestic and foreign MNCs to setup operations; a boon for the overall real estate market.

High speed rail to connect to a new international airport in the Rayong port region. Expect industrial and residential real estate sectors to benefit.

New mainland link will benefit the real estate markets in Georgetown and Butterworth where tunnel entrances are located.

Increased trading activities from the new port will stimulate warehousing and logistics facilities demand.

Improved economic opportunities to east coast states and likely to benefit overall real estate sector.

Highspeed rail linking Indonesia's two major cities. Cuts travel time between Jakarta and Bandung, second largest city, from five hrs to forty five mins. Main sectors to benefit are residential from decentralizing demand and hotels from increased tourism - logisitics markets along the corridor also likely to be enhanced.

Railway

Highway

Highway

Railway

LandReclamation

High Speed Rail

Road AndTunnelProject

Deep Sea Port

Railway

High Speed Rail

Page 8: NewFrontiers Report FIN - Knight Frank · 2019-07-16 · return prospects. China’s Belt and Road initiative therefore presents an attractive opportunity for the Southeast Asian

NEW FRONTIERS Special Focus: Southeast Asia Industrial & Logistics P G . 0 7

Since the change of administration in 2016, we have seen a reversal of the previous stance and a pivot towards China; paving the way for a slew of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects and investments into the Philippines. Coincidentally, this is also in line with the current administration’s push towards greater infrastructure spending to boost economic growth. However, things have been slow to get off the ground with only US$6.7 billion of Belt and Road Initiative related investments completed since the change in govern-ment, out of the roughly US$25 to 30 billion in pledges secured. One key reason for this stem from the foreign ownership limit rules in the Philippineson certain key sectors which has yet to

be revised despite the government’s plan to liberalise certain portions of the economy back in 2017.

Nonetheless, with the rapid infra-structure push, developers are once again warming up to the industrial sector. Initially, developers have been forced outside of Manila due to the scarcity of land and cheaper alterna-tives. However, due to recent increased fuel prices, demand for industrial lots and warehouses have been recently redirected towards area closer to Manila. This favourable supply dynamic was the driver behind rental growth for industrial rents across most of the country.

Furthermore, major e-commerce players have also started to enter the market as shown by Alibaba’s Lazada setting up its largest Southeast Asia warehouse in Cabuyao in late 2017 and has plans for another five facili-ties over the coming three to five years. Going forward, with the govern-ment forecasting the economy to expand between 6.5 to 6.9% in 2019 mainly via the strong and consistent delivery of its infrastructure invest-ment agenda, the outlook for the industrial sector does look bright and expectations are for 2019 to at least maintain the growth momentum from last year.

B R I G H T I N D U S T R I A L O U T L O O K2 0 1 9 B A R I R A N K : 4 4 / 2 0 1 8 B A R I R A N K : 5 0

1 0 Y E A R C H I N E S E I N V E S T M E N T S I N T O P H I L I P P I N E S

VALENZUELAQUEZON CITY

MANDALUYONG

PASIG

MAKATI

TAGUIG

PARANAQUE

LAS PINAS

WAREHOUSE RENT Q4 2018 (PHP/sqm/mo)

2018: 152YOY(%): 21.6%

2018: 255YOY(%): -2%

2018: 457YOY(%): 9.5%

2018: 225YOY(%): 25%

2018: 589YOY(%): 1.8%

2018: 300YOY(%): 76.5%

2018: 157YOY(%): 28.7%

2018: 438YOY(%): 157.6%

P H I L I P P I N E S :

Source: The American Enterprise Institute

Source: Knight Frank Research

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

US

D M

illio

ns

2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2018

ENERGY REAL ESTATE TRANSPORT OTHERS (E.G. ENTERTAINMENT, TECH, TOURISM, UTILITIES)

Page 9: NewFrontiers Report FIN - Knight Frank · 2019-07-16 · return prospects. China’s Belt and Road initiative therefore presents an attractive opportunity for the Southeast Asian

P G . 0 8

Unveiled back in 2018, Thailand 4.0 is an ambitious plan by the government to revamp the country’s economy via the development of a special economic zone dubbed the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) which com-prises industrial estates and tourist destinations. The EEC and its projects will be integrated with China’s Belt and Road Initiative through an 873-kilometer Thai-China high-speed railway that will connect Thailand to Kunming, China via Laos. Currently, the initial 250 kilometers are under construction with an estimated cost of US$5.6 billion, running between Bangkok and Nakhon Ratchasima. Separately, other major EEC projects include the US$4.9 billion expansion of Laem Chabang Port in anticipation

of higher international freight demand and the expansion of U-Tapao airport near Thailand’s coast, set to become the country’s third main international airport and anchor a Special Econom-ic Zone.

Along with the capital, Chinese com-panies have also started taking more interest in Thailand. One example is Cainiao, one of China’s leading smart logistics network players, who has committed US$330 million to devel-op a digital hub within the EEC that it plans to further optimize the cross-border flow of goods for Thailand and its neighbors.

Developers have been active in the warehouse sector, adding 302,000

sqm of new space in 2018 and bring-ing the total market supply to 5,177,000 sqm, a 6.2% year-on-year increase. Sector occupancy stood at 83% at the end of 2018, a 1.4% rise from the year before, driven by stock withdrawals while demand remained stable. With occupiers having more supply options last year, rents fell 1.6% year-on-year to Thb151.3 (US$4.75) psm per month. Going forward, while the excess supply situation is expected to persist over the near term, developers conscious of market conditions will likely adjust their supply deliveries. As a result, warehouse rental prices are expected to remain range between Thb150 to 155 (US$4.71 to 4.86).

T A P E R I N G S U P P LY T O K E E P R E N T S I N C H E C K2 0 1 9 B A R I R A N K : 2 6 / 2 0 1 8 B A R I R A N K : 3 1

NEW FRONTIERS Special Focus: Southeast Asia Industrial & Logistics

BANGKOK

SUVARNABHUMI- BANGPAKONG

EASTERNSEABOARD

PATHUMTHANI- AYUTTHAYA

SUPPLY

OCCUPIED SPACE

H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018 H2 2018

170

165

160

155

150

145

140

135

130

125

120

Bah

t p

er

sq.m

pe

r m

on

th

Source: Knight Frank Research

PATHUMTHANI- AYUTTHAYA

H2 2018: 144YoY(%): -4%SUPPLY (sqm): 3,628,409 VACANCY: 2%

BANGKOKSUVARNABHUMI - BANGPAKONG

EASTERNSEABOARD

H2 2018: 166YoY(%): -4%SUPPLY (sqm): 5,004,408 VACANCY: 0%

H2 2018: 159YoY(%): -1%SUPPLY (sqm): 4,825,348 VACANCY: 6%

H2 2018: 150YoY(%): -2%SUPPLY (sqm): 4,974,707 VACANCY: 9%

WAREHOUSE RENT Q4 2018 (THB/sqm/mo)

Source: Knight Frank Research

5,500,000

5,000,000

4,500,000

4,000,000

3,500,000

3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000 sqm

T H A I L A N D :

Page 10: NewFrontiers Report FIN - Knight Frank · 2019-07-16 · return prospects. China’s Belt and Road initiative therefore presents an attractive opportunity for the Southeast Asian

P G . 0 9

Over the past 10 years, Malaysia has been a major beneficiary of Chinese capital with investments totaling US$43.8 billion, the highest amount recorded among its ASEAN peers. A major driver behind this has been the relatively open stance the previous government took on China, and one which is expected to continue under the new administration. The Prime Minister has emphasized his intention to develop deeper ties with China, and this was evident when Beijing was one of the first overseas coun-tries visited in an official capacity since returning to power. Further-more, while the new government has taken precautions by relooking at the feasibilities of all the MOUs signed under the previous leadership, it would not derail but most likely delay the inevitable given the benefits of

these large foreign direct invest-ments. Nonetheless, this has not deterred Chinese manufacturing FDI which rose 410.8% year-on-year to RM15.8 billion in 2018.

Besides just relying on Chinese capi-tal to drive growth, the new govern-ment has also set in place key initia-tives that will have direct benefits on the industrial sector. One major initia-tive is the emphasis on improving the country’s capabilities in the Halal industry, a global industry worth US$2.1 trillion in 2017, and capitalising on Malaysia’s top rated global Islamic economic ecosystem spanning finance to manufacturing standards and halal certifications. Another major initiative announced recently at Budget 2019 was the plan to set up a new Free Trade Area in Pulau Indah

which would support and spur further shipping and logistics activity at Port Klang, Malaysia’s main port.

As these initiatives materialise, the industrial sector is expected to receive a much-needed boost espe-cially given the ageing stock; redevel-opments into sizeable warehouses with higher specifications has been gaining momentum recently as oper-ators seek to get ahead of the curve. Current market rents for warehouses within the major industrial zones near Port Klang in Selangor and in Negeri Sembilan range from RM0.80 to 2.00 (US$0.2 to 0.5) per square foot per month; while in Johor and Penang they command monthly rental rates of RM0.80 to RM2.50 (US$0.2 to 0.6) per square foot.

O N T R A C K D E S P I T E T H E D E T O U R2 0 1 9 B A R I R A N K : 9 / 2 0 1 8 B A R I R A N K : 6

NEW FRONTIERS Special Focus: Southeast Asia Industrial & Logistics

SELANGOR:KLANG

0.80 – 1.20

SELANGOR:SHAH ALAM

NEGERISEMBILAN

1.50 – 2.00

0.80 – 1.20

1.00 – 1.50

JOHOR:PASIR GUDANG

0.80 – 1.20

JOHOR:SENAI - KULAI

MALAYSIAINDONESIA

SINGAPORELAOS

VIETNAMCAMBODIA

PHILIPPINESTHAILANDMYANMAR

BRUNEI

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 US$ BILLIONS

C H I N E S E I N V E S T M E N T S ( A L L S E C T O R S ) P A S T 1 0 Y R S

M A L A Y S I A

DETACHED FACTORY RENTS Q4 2018 (RM/sqft/mo)

Source: Knight Frank Research

Source: Knight Frank Research and The American Enterprise Institute

Page 11: NewFrontiers Report FIN - Knight Frank · 2019-07-16 · return prospects. China’s Belt and Road initiative therefore presents an attractive opportunity for the Southeast Asian

P G . 1 0

For many decades, China has devel-oped strong ties with Cambodia, seeing the emerging nation within the Indo-China region for its strategic position within South-East Asia. This was evident in 2018 as Chinese entities invested US$3.83 billion into Cambodian real estate and highway projects, one of the highest amounts within Southeast Asia.

Prior to 2013’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), investments from China had focused mainly on energy projects such as hydroelectric dams across the country. However, post-BRI, this focus has shifted towards transport infrastructure and real estate construction. These two sectors accounted for a 73% share of all Chinese investments into Cambodia

in the 5 years post-BRI, an increase from the 12% share they had prior to the BRI.

Recent notable investments include a US$2.08 billion highway project by China Communications Construction who will build and operate a 190-kilo-meter four lane highway connecting Phnom Penh to Sihanoukville - home to Cambodia’s special economic zones, deep sea port and the coun-try’s main gateway for exports and imports.

The drive to improve infrastructure connecting the capital and economic hub has made Sihanoukville an increasingly attractive destination for foreign direct investments (FDI) and corporate occupiers; current ly the

Chinese account for circa. 80% of all companies operating within Sihan-oukville’s special economic zones (SEZ) followed by the Americans and Europeans at 16%. The improved sentiment has positively impacted factory rents with average long term (30 to 50 years) leases rising 3% YoY to US$32.5 per sq m in 1H 2018.

Underpinned by improving infrastruc-ture, the industrial sector for Sihan-oukville (a proxy for Cambodia’s over-all market) is expected to do well over the medium to long term. Further-more, the sector is expected to be buoyed by the commencement of oil extraction in late 2019 which will drive further demand across the industrial and manufacturing sectors.

O N T H E R I S E2 0 1 9 B A R I R A N K : 3 6 / 2 0 1 8 B A R I R A N K : 3 8

NEW FRONTIERS Special Focus: Southeast Asia Industrial & Logistics

1 0 Y E A R C H I N E S E I N V E S T M E N T S I N T O C A M B O D I A

C A M B O D I A

LONG TERM (30-50 YEARS)FACTORY LEASES1H 2018 (USD/psm)

Source: Knight Frank Research

NEW ROADOLD ROAD

30 - 35

Source: Knight Frank Research and The American Enterprise Institute

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

US

D M

illio

ns

2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018

AGRICULTUREENERGYENTERTAINMENTFINANCEMETALSREAL ESTATETECHNOLOGYTRANSPORT

Page 12: NewFrontiers Report FIN - Knight Frank · 2019-07-16 · return prospects. China’s Belt and Road initiative therefore presents an attractive opportunity for the Southeast Asian

The Knight Frank Bel t and Road Index (BARI ) has been developed using re l iable and internat ional ly-recognized data sources. The index is c lassi f ied into s ix categor ies: economic potent ia l , demographic advantage, inf ra-structure development, inst i tut ional ef fect iveness, market accessibi l i ty and resi l ience to natura l d isasters. The values with in each category have been normal ized to ensure the resul t ing f igures are comparable and contextu-al ized for th is study. A l l categor ies are assigned with speci f ic weight ings in accordance with thei r potent ia l s igni f icance to investment decis ions. ‘Real Estate Prospects’ in each market wr i te -up refers to the market out look for each real estate sector in the medium term given the prevai l ing demand/supply dynamics and current posi t ion in the property market cycle.

NEW FRONTIERS Special Focus: Southeast Asia Industrial & Logistics P G . 1 1

T H E B E LT A N D R O A D I N D E X ( B A R I )

ECONOMIC POTENTIAL

GDP PER CAPITA PP

FUTURE GDP GROWTH RATE

GDP GROWTH RATE

INSTITUTIONAL EFFECTIVENESS

GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS

REGULATORY QUALITY

VOICE AND ACCOUNTABILITY

POLITICAL STABILITY AND ABSENCEOF VIOLENCE/TERRORISM

RULE OF LAW

CORRUPTION PERCEPTIONS INDEX

DEMOGRAPHIC ADVANTAGE

URBANISATION RATE

POPULATION GROWTH

DEPENDENCY RATIO

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

QUALITY OF PORT INFRASTRUCTURE

LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE INDEX

ROAD DENSITY

LINER SHIPPING CONNECTIVITY INDEX I

INTERNET SUBSCRIPTIONS

FIXED BROADBAND SUBSCRIPTIONS

MOBILE CELLULAR SUBSCRIPTIONS

MARKET ACCESSIBILITY

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (% OF GDP)

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTINWARD FLOWS AND STOCK

RESILIENCE TO NATURAL DISASTERS

WORLD RISK INDEX

CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2018

US$

%

%

PERCENTILE RANK (0 - 100)

PERCENTILE RANK (0 - 100)

PERCENTILE RANK (0 - 100)

PERCENTILE RANK (0 - 100)

PERCENTILE RANK (0 - 100)

SCALE (0 - 100)

%

%

RATIO

SCORING (1-7)

AGGREGATE INDICATORS (1-5)

KM OF ROAD PER 100 SQ. KM OF LAND AREA

INDEX (MAXIMUM VALUE IN 2004=100)

% OF POPULATION

PER 100 PEOPLE

PER 100 PEOPLE

%

US$

AGGREGATE INDICATORS

AGGREGATE INDICATORS

2018

AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2014-2018

2017

2017

2017

2017

2017

2018

2015-2020

2015-2020

2015-2020

2018 OR LATEST

2018 OR LATEST

2018 OR LATEST

2018 OR LATEST

2018 OR LATEST

2018 OR LATEST

2018 OR LATEST

AVERAGE 2008-2017

AVERAGE 2008-2017

2018

AVERAGE 1998-2018

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

WORLD BANK

WORLD BANK

WORLD BANK

WORLD BANK

WORLD BANK

TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

UNITED NATIONS

UNITED NATIONS

UNITED NATIONS

WORLD BANK

WORLD BANK

WORLD BANK

WORLD BANK

WORLD BANK

WORLD BANK

WORLD BANK

WORLD BANK

UNITED NATIONS

UNITED NATIONS

GERMANWATCH

25%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

UNIT WEIGH YEAR SOURCE

METHODOLOGY

Page 13: NewFrontiers Report FIN - Knight Frank · 2019-07-16 · return prospects. China’s Belt and Road initiative therefore presents an attractive opportunity for the Southeast Asian

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