news letter pms may 2014 - · pdf filewe believe in adequate diversification ... the...
TRANSCRIPT
MonthlyCommuniqué
Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670
May 2014
Dear Investors and my dear Advisor friends;
I have been writing to you about our investment philosophy of BUY RIGHT : SIT TIGHT which we follow so as to manage your money in a disciplined; process oriented manner targeted at not just generating returns but for creating wealth. This month, I would like elaborate a bit about this and explain to you why in the Indian context this is critical to follow over the next few years.
Wealth Creation by investing in equity requires two traits
1. The ability to identify good companies and
2. The discipline to stay invested over a long period of time in order to realize the full growth potential of the stock.
Good quality companies are in business for decades but investors change their views about these companies every year, every quarter, every month and sometimes every day! While many investors get the first part of identifying good stocks, hardly anyone stays invested for a long enough time. The temptation to book profits at 25% or 50% or even 100% returns in a 1 to 3 year period is so natural that people miss out the chance of multiplication in wealth that happens only over long periods of say 5 to 10 years. The findings of 18th Motilal Oswal Wealth Creation Study-2013 shows that quality stocks have grown ~200 to 300 times over a period of two decades. If you wish to see the video of Mr. Agrawal's presentation and the panel discussion please click on the link below:
Videos: http://www.motilaloswal.com/Financial-Services/Knowledge-Centre/Videos/17
http://www.motilaloswal.com/Financial-Services/Knowledge-Centre/Videos/18
Needless to say, one would have benefitted from this growth only if he or she had remained invested instead of making attempts at cashing out and trading in alternatively.
Why is this important for investing in Indian stock markets? In a recent interview when I was asked about the long term view for India, I had stated that over the next five to seven years I am expecting today's Sensex value to be actually the Nifty value! Favorable demographics remain the underlying driver of growth for India. While consumption has contributed disproportionately to economic growth in India in the last 6 years, we believe a more focused leadership at the state and central levels will be critical to remove policy road-blocks and help drive investment-led growth. Favorable policy environment should also help exports pick up steam. The economic situation is in a turnaround mode and likely political consolidation happening at the same time should result in a huge upward move in equity markets.
While some of this analysis tends to be more technical in nature, I am going to share two slightly long but logical calculations on why todays Sensex value may be the Nifty value in the foreseeable future.
Analysis 1:
i) Today, the size of our economy (GDP) is approx. Rs. 110 lakh crores
ii) Economic (GDP) growth rate at conservative estimates like last 5 years is equal to 6% real growth + 7% inflation which sums up to 13% nominal growth.
iii) Size of the economy (GDP) after 10 years at the same pace might be approx. Rs. 373 lakh crores.
iv) During last 10 years, the range of Corporate Profits / GDP ratio has been approx. 2.7% to 6.0%. Corporate Profits / GDP means the total profits of all listed companies as a percentage of the size of the economy as a whole.
v) Currently it is at 4% to the GDP, thus Corporate Profits may be quantified at approx Rs. 4.4 lakh crores.
Our Investment philosophy - BUY RIGHT. SIT TIGHT
Quality : Quality of business and management
Growth : Growth in earnings and sustained RoE
Longevity : Longevity of the competitive advantage /economic moat of the business
Price : Buying a good business for a fair price rather than buying a fair business for a good price.
Buy and Hold: We are strictly buy and hold investors and believe that picking the right business needs skill and holding onto these business to enable our investors to benefit from the entire growth cycle, needs even more skill.
Focus: Our portfolios are high conviction portfolios with 20 to 25 stocks being our ideal number. We believe in adequate diversification but over-diversification results in diluting returns for our investors and adding market risk.
Buy Right Sit Tight
(Continued overleaf)
Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670
vi) Long Term average PE ratio is 16 times.
vii) Current Market Cap is approximately 16 times multiplied by Rs. 4.4 lakh crores is higher than Rs. 70 lakh crores (which is indeed close to current market cap).
viii) 10 years hence, assuming corporate profit to GDP remains unchanged at 4%, the corporate profits in such case would be approx Rs. 15 lakh crores. (4% of Rs 373 lac crores)
ix) Assume PE also remains as per long term average of 16 times, market cap may become Rs. 239 lakh crores
x) With market cap at Rs. 70 lakh crores today, Nifty is at 6500 points. So if market cap goes to Rs. 239 lakh crores, what will Nifty be???? By simple multiplications it will be approximately 22000 points.
You may now calculate the Nifty if the following extremes are tested in the market which are always tested depending on whether we are in bull or bear market:
1) What if GDP grows at 9% real growth instead of 6% growth?
2) What if corporate profits to GDP ratio is 6% instead of 4%?
3) What if market's PE is 24 times as in past peak instead of current 16 times average?
You will find that Nifty will be equal to today's Sensex in worst case. For best case, I leave the calculations to you !
Analysis 2:
In the market peak of FY08 the size of the economy (GDP) was Rs 45 lakh crores and the market cap of India was Rs 75 lakh crores. Today the GDP is Rs. 110 lakh crores but market is still between Rs 70 lakh to Rs. 75 lakh crores.
Historically the range of market cap to GDP ratio has been between 0.5 to 1.75 times.
Over the next 5 years at say 13% nominal growth rate take above the GDP may be Rs 202 lakh crores. In this period if the market cap to GDP ratio is 0.5 you will get 6% return on equity, if market cap to GDP ratio is 1 time you may get 22% return on equity and if you are in an equity party where market cap to GDP gets to its peak of 1.75 times, you may get 36.5% return on your equity investment.
Should you be in any asset class other than equity? And what should your percentage allocation to equity?
As always, I would love to hear from you. Incase of any further clarifications sought or feedback, please feel free to write back to me at [email protected]
Aashish P SomaiyaaManaging Director and CEOMotilal Oswal Asset Management Company Limited
Value Strategy
Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670
• Value based stock selection
• Investment Approach: Buy & Hold
• Investments with Long term perspective
• Maximize post tax return due to Low Churn
Investment Strategy
The Strategy aims to benefit from the long
term compounding effect on investments
done in good businesses, run by great
business managers for superior wealth
creation.
Strategy Objective
Fund Manager : Manish Sonthalia
Strategy Type : Open ended
Date of Inception : 24th March 2003
Benchmark : CNX Nifty
Investment Horizon: 3 Years +
Subscription : Daily
Redemption : Daily
Valuation Point : Daily
Details
Top Sectors
Banking & Finance
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Infotech
FMCG
Pharmaceuticals
Engineering & Electricals
Cash
26.86
26.68
16.99
10.35
8.07
6.37
0.46
Sector Allocation % Allocation*
Top Holdings
Eicher Motors Ltd.HDFC Bank Ltd.Bosch Ltd.Tech Mahindra LimitedHousing Development Finance Corporation Ltd.Infosys Technologies Ltd.State Bank Of IndiaLarsen & Toubro Ltd.Asian Paints Ltd.Hero Motocorp LimitedDivis Laboratories Ltd
Top Holdings % Allocation*
11.2711.0410.108.858.218.147.616.375.485.315.28
Key Portfolio Analysis
Standard Deviation (%)
Beta
30.64
1.00
Performance Data NiftyValue Strategy
27.28
0.81
*Above 5% & Cash
The Above strategy returns are of a Model Client. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on factors such as time of entry/exit/ additional inflows in the strategy. The Above returns are calculated on NAV basis and are based on the closing market prices as on 30th April 2014. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns above 1 year are annualized. Please refer to the disclosure document for further information.
*Above 5%
Value Strategy Nifty All Figures in %
Periods
% o
f re
turn
s
13.22
8.556.43
8.03
16.41
25.03
12.92 12.96
5.216.13
14.02
18.55
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year Since Inception
Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity Strategy
Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670
Key Portfolio Analysis
Period
Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity Strategy CNX MIDCAP
The strategy aims to deliver superior
returns by investing in focused themes
which are part of the next Trillion Dollar
GDP growth opportunity. It aims to
predominantly invest in Small & Mid Cap
stocks with a focus on Identifying
Emerging Stocks/Sectors.
• Stocks with Reasonable Valuation
• Concentration on Emerging Themes
• Buy & Hold Strategy
Fund Manager : Manish Sonthalia
Strategy Type : Open ended
Date of Inception : 11th Dec. 2007
Benchmark : CNX MIDCAP
Investment Horizon: 3 Years +
Subscription : Daily
Redemption : Daily
Valuation Point : Daily
Strategy Objective
Investment Strategy
Details
26.48
21.47
20.89
8.23
7.87
7.12
0.40
Sector Allocation
13.91
13.34
7.87
7.55
7.30
6.31
6.23
5.21
5.04
Standard Deviation (%)
Beta
32.00
1.00
Performance Data CNX MIDCAPNTDOP
22.85
0.57
Top Sectors
Sector Allocation % Allocation*
Top Holdings
Top Holdings % Allocation*
The Above strategy returns are of a Model Client. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on factors such as time of entry/exit/ additional inflows in the strategy. The Above returns are calculated on NAV basis and are based on the closing market prices as on 30th April 2014. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns above 1 year are annualized. Please refer to the disclosure document for further information.
*Above 5% & Cash
*Above 5%
FMCG
Banking & Finance
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Diversified
Pharmaceuticals
Engineering & Electricals
Cash
Page Industries Ltd.
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Ipca Lab Ltd.
Bosch Ltd.
J&k Bank
Bajaj Finance Ltd.
GlaxoSmithkline Consumer Healthcare Ltd.
Voltas Ltd.
Cummins India Ltd.
% o
f re
turn
s
31.66
23.96
21.6318.61
30.31
12.7212.34
8.43
2.31 2.17
17.86
0.580.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year SinceInception
All Figures in %
Invest India Strategy
Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670
Key Portfolio Analysis
Invest India Strategy BSE 200 All Figures in %
Period
The Strategy aims to generate long term
capital appreciation by creating a focused
portfolio of high growth stocks having the
potential to grow more than the nominal
GDP for next 5-7 years across market
capitalization and which are available at
reasonable market prices.
• Buy Growth Stocks across Market capitalization which have the potential to grow at 1.5 times the nominal GDP for next 5-7 years.
• BUY & HOLD strategy, leading to low to medium churn thereby enhancing post-tax returns
Fund Manager : Kunal Jadhwani
Strategy Type : Open ended
Date of Inception : 11th Feb. 2010
Benchmark : BSE 200
Investment Horizon: 3 Years +
Subscription : Daily
Redemption : Daily
Valuation Point : Daily
Strategy Objective
Investment Strategy
Details
Banking & FinanceFMCGPharmaceuticalsInfotechAuto & Auto AncillariesAlcoholic Beverages and DistilleriesEngineering & ElectricalsChemicalsRetailCash
23.8219.9312.8410.077.486.976.656.395.380.46
Sector Allocation
Standard Deviation (%)
Beta
20.86
1.00
Performance Data BSE 200IIS
18.01
0.75
Top Sectors
Sector Allocation % Allocation*
The Above strategy returns are of a Model Client. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on factors such as time of entry/exit/ additional inflows in the strategy. The Above returns are calculated on NAV basis and are based on the closing market prices as on 30th April 2014. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns above 1 year are annualized. Please refer to the disclosure document for further information.
*Above 5% & Cash
Page Industries Ltd.
HDFC Bank Ltd.
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.
Ipca Lab Ltd.
United Spirits Limited
Larsen & Toubro Ltd.
Pidilite Industries Limited
Bata India Ltd.
ITC Ltd.
12.12
11.07
10.07
9.32
6.97
6.65
6.39
5.38
5.10
Top Holdings
Top Holdings % Allocation*
*Above 5%
-1.94
8.05 7.79
10.25
7.34
5.46
8.31
0.25
10.83
7.93
12.52 12.16
4.38
6.67
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year Since Inception
% o
f re
turn
s
Focused Series IV - Flexi Cap Strategy
Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670
Key Portfolio Analysis
Period
Standard Deviation (%)
Beta
21.27
1.00
Performance Data BSE 200Focused Series - IV
18.37
0.69
The Strategy aims to generate superior returns over a medium to long term by investing in only 8-10 companies across market capitalization. The Fund Manager will take active asset allocation calls between cash & equity. The strategy will also take active equity allocation calls between investments in large caps & mid caps & it will follow a policy of profit booking with predefined price targets.
• Active Equity Allocation between Mid caps & Large caps
• Active Asset Allocation calls between Cash and Equity
• Strategy will follow a policy of profit booking with predefined price targets
• When the Client’s AUM appreciates by 15%, the appreciation amount will be automatically paid-out.
Portfolio Manager : Kunal Jadhwani
Date of Inception : 07th Dec. 2009
Benchmark : BSE 200
Investment Horizon: 12 – 18 Months
Subscription : No
Redemption : Daily
Valuation Point : Daily
Strategy Objective
Investment Strategy
Details
Banking & Finance
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
FMCG
Infotech
Chemicals
Pharmaceuticals
Engineering & Electricals
Cash
23.66
21.70
13.91
12.97
11.16
10.00
5.60
1.00
Sector Allocation
Bosch Ltd.
Tech Mahindra Limited
Kotak Bank
HDFC Bank Ltd.
Pidilite Industries Limited
Ipca Lab Ltd.
Page Industries Ltd.
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Cummins India Ltd.
13.96
12.97
12.03
11.63
11.16
10.00
9.48
7.75
5.60
Top Sectors
Sector Allocation % Allocation*
Top Holdings
Top Holdings % Allocation*
The Above strategy returns are of a Model Client. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on factors such as time of entry/exit/ additional inflows in the strategy. The Above returns are calculated on NAV basis and are based on the closing market prices as on 30th April 2014. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns above 1 year are annualized. Please refer to the disclosure document for further information.
*Above 5% & Cash
*Above 5%
Focused Series IV BSE 200 All Figures in %
% o
f re
turn
s
-1.58
8.5311.95
24.72
19.25
10.848.53
0.25
10.83
7.93
12.52 12.16
4.38 5.24
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Years 2 Years 3 Years Since Inception
Focused Series V - A Contra Strategy
Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670
Key Portfolio Analysis
The strategy aims to invest in fundamentally sound companies that can benefit from changes in a company's valuation which reflects a significant change in the markets view of the company over a horizon of three years. The Strategy focuses on investing in stocks that can benefit from growth in earnings, re-rating of business or higher valuation of assets. Objective is to increase return rather than reduce risk for Investors.
• Buy and hold philosophy – low portfolio churn
• Follows the principle to pick best rather than diversification
Concentrated Strategy Structure of less than 10 stocks
Investment Horizon : Medium to Long term
•
•
Fund Manager : Manish Sonthalia
Date of Inception : 27th Sept. 2010
Benchmark : BSE 200
Investment Horizon: 2 to 3 Years
Subscription : Daily
Redemption : Daily
Valuation Point : Daily
Strategy Objective
Investment Strategy
Details
Banking & Finance
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Oil and Gas
Textiles
Diversified
Engineering & Electricals
Pharmaceuticals
Cash
29.77
19.10
15.11
9.15
8.97
6.37
5.56
0.01
Sector Allocation
Eicher Motors Ltd.
J&k Bank
Ing Vysya Bank Limited
Vardhman Textiles Limited
Petronet LNG Limited
Godrej Indus
Triveni Turbine Limited
Reliance Industries Ltd.
Divis Laboratories Ltd
19.10
18.89
10.89
9.15
9.12
8.97
6.37
5.99
5.56
Standard Deviation (%)
Beta
21.24
1.00
Performance Data BSE 200Focused Series - V
24.86
0.91
Top Sectors
Sector Allocation % Allocation*
Top Holdings
Top Holdings % Allocation*
The Above strategy returns are of a Model Client. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on factors such as time of entry/exit/ additional inflows in the strategy. The Above returns are calculated on NAV basis and are based on the closing market prices as on 30th April 2014. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns above 1 year are annualized. Please refer to the disclosure document for further information.
*Above 5% & Cash
*Above 5%
Focused Series V BSE 200 All Figures in %
Period
% o
f re
turn
s
0.41
16.0416.65
19.62 20.30
8.58
3.97
0.25
10.83
7.93
12.5212.16
4.38
1.57
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year Since Inception
Bulls Eye Strategy
Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670
• Active management
• Multi Cap Stategy
• Regular Profit Booking
Investment Strategy
Key Portfolio Analysis
The Strategy aims to deliver returns in the
short to medium term by investing in
fundamentally sound stocks coupled with
active profit booking.
Portfolio Manager : Kunal Jadhwani
Strategy Type : Open ended
Date of Inception : 15th Dec. 2003
Benchmark : BSE 200
Investment Horizon: 12 Months +
Subscription : Daily
Redemption : Daily
Valuation Point : Daily
Strategy Objective
Details
Banking & Finance
Infotech
Pharmaceuticals
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Engineering & Electricals
Chemicals
FMCG
Retail
Cash
22.96
15.50
14.39
14.21
13.84
6.92
6.26
5.35
0.56
Sector Allocation % Allocation
HDFC Bank Ltd.Tech Mahindra LimitedIpca Lab Ltd.Axis Bank Ltd.Cummins India Ltd.Pidilite Industries LimitedLarsen & Toubro Ltd.Eicher Motors Ltd.Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.ITC Ltd.Lupin Ltd.Bata India Ltd.
10.529.188.388.077.166.926.686.596.326.266.015.35
Standard Deviation (%)
Beta
31.27
1.00
Performance Data BSE 200Bulls Eye
27.84
0.75
Top Sectors
Sector Allocation
Top Holdings
Top Holdings % Allocation*
The Above strategy returns are of a Model Client. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on factors such as time of entry/exit/ additional inflows in the strategy. The Above returns are calculated on NAV basis and are based on the closing market prices as on 30th April 2014. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns above 1 year are annualized. Please refer to the disclosure document for further information.
*Above 5% & Cash
*Above 5%
Bulls Eye Strategy BSE 200
Period
All Figures in %
15.1314.33
10.97
6.60
17.09
13.0612.52 12.16
4.38 4.78
14.9414.01
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year Since Inception
% o
f re
turn
s
Optima Strategy
Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670
The Strategy aims to generate superior
returns over the long period by investing
in companies with growth potential and
which are available at reasonable market
price.
• Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP)
• Investment Horizon of 2 years +
• Active Portfolio Rebalancing
• Market Timing
• Situation based Multi Cap approach
Portfolio Manager :
Strategy Type : Open ended
Date of Inception : 30th Dec 2008
Benchmark : BSE 200
Investment Horizon: 2 Years +
Subscription : Daily
Redemption : Daily
Valuation Point : Daily
Kunal Jadhwani
Strategy Objective
Investment Strategy
Details
Banking & Finance
Infotech
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Engineering & Electricals
Pharmaceuticals
Chemicals
FMCG
Retail
Cash
23.45
14.61
14.38
14.25
14.03
7.12
6.38
5.37
0.41
Sector Allocation
HDFC Bank Ltd.
Tech Mahindra Limited
Axis Bank Ltd.
Ipca Lab Ltd.
Cummins India Ltd.
Pidilite Industries Limited
Larsen & Toubro Ltd.
Eicher Motors Ltd.
ITC Ltd.
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.
Lupin Ltd.
Bata India Ltd.
10.91
8.42
8.14
7.99
7.40
7.12
6.85
6.74
6.38
6.19
6.04
5.37
Key Portfolio Analysis
Standard Deviation (%)
Beta
26.20
1.00
Performance Data BSE 200Optima
19.49
0.62
Top Sectors
Sector Allocation % Allocation*
Top Holdings
Top Holdings % Allocation*
*Above 5% & Cash
*Above 5%
The Above strategy returns are of a Model Client. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on factors such as time of entry/exit/ additional inflows in the strategy. The Above returns are calculated on NAV basis and are based on the closing market prices as on 30th April 2014. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns above 1 year are annualized. Please refer to the disclosure document for further information.
Period
Optima Strategy BSE 200 All Figures in %
% o
f re
turn
s 15.26
13.17
9.019.80
18.14
20.85
12.52 12.16
4.38 4.78
14.94
17.54
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
1 Years 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years SinceInception
Portfolio Actions
Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670
In the previous month, we have reduced our exposure from Nestle India in our Value Strategy.
After 2 years of low growth v/s historical growth of Nestle India (18-19%) and post the recent interaction with new CEO, we believe that it will take few years for Nestle India to be back to 18-19% growth trend, but it is a great franchise to own as Nestle India still maintains leadership position in segments they have presence in. Growth has been impacted due to overall slowdown in discretionary spending.
We have used the proceeds to take fresh positions into Sun Pharma.
• Sun Pharma is among the largest players in the domestic formulations market and the most profitable one. It makes and markets specialty medicines and Active Pharmaceuticals Ingredients (APIs) for chronic therapy areas such as cardiology, psychiatry, neurology, etc.
• Sun Pharma has ability to identify niches in long term therapy areas with high entry barriers and build strong franchise to ensure sustainable growth and high margins.
• Sustaining superior profitability on higher base is a strong positive.
• One of the strongest Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) pipelines from India with 131 ANDAs pending approval. The pipeline includes a combination of low-competition, patent challenge and normal product opportunities.
Key investment arguments:-
• Sun Pharma acquired Ranbaxy for USD 4 billion, diversifies India business, strengthens position in emerging markets, deal valued at 2.2x sales.
• Post the acquisition, Sun Pharma will be a leading player in 13 therapies in India, gaining entry into the fast growing OTC space in India with brands like Revital & Volini,
• It has establish a footprint across 55 emerging markets.
• Sun Pharma became the fifth largest global specialty company and No. 1 pharma company in India with combined market share of 9.2% versus 6.5% for Abbott as per AIOCD-AWACS.
• The company is a leading generic company in the generic derma space in the US, which is world's largest pharma market. It now has strong pipeline of 184 ANDAs including high-value FTFs
• The company expects to realize its synergies through stronger sales growth, efficient procurement and supply chain efficiencies. It also intends to leverage the human resources.
• Keeping the strong acquisition track record in mind, we expect Ranbaxy's assets to show a better performance under Sun Pharma. However, synergy benefits will take time to materialize and may only happen over a period of 24-30 months
• At our buying price Sun Pharma was trading at 23x FY15E EPS of 26 with ROE of 27% & ROCE of 41%. We expect profits to grow at 20% CAGR for next 3 – 5 years.
From our Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity Portfolio, we exited our holdings in Mcleod Russel, the leading black tea producer in India. We have done this change to create liquidity to take position into Colgate Palmolive India Ltd. (CPIL), which is expected to deliver better earnings growth over the next 2-3 years.
• CPIL's volume growth at close to double-digit YoY for 23 consecutive quarters is not only unparalleled among fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) peers, but it is also sustaining this level, which is remarkable given the sharp slowdown witnessed by FMCG peers.
• Oral care product consumption per gram is much lower in India compared to some emerging market peers. Less than 10% of Indians brush their teeth twice a day, a habit which is not widely prevalent even in urban areas. Over 325 million people in the country do not use toothpaste at all.
• Volume growth is led by strong rural toothpaste demand (low rural penetration of 63%, as per IMRB), CPIL's rapidly increasing rural reach (the plan to double rural reach in three years is already underway), its dominance at the lower end (market share higher than its overall 56% toothpaste market share), unmatched category development efforts in schools and villages, and the ongoing shift in consumer preference from toothpowder to toothpaste.
• Other industry entry barriers are brand power, category development efforts, dedicated focus, and track record in emerging markets where CPIL take the edge.
• CPIL's valuation at 30xFY15E earnings is attractive, particularly when strong EPS growth of 22-24% CAGR likely over the next two years is accompanied by high RoE and RoCE of ~90% each and a dividend yield of around 3%.
Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670
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Risk Disclosure And DisclaimerC
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