news letter pms may 2014 - · pdf filewe believe in adequate diversification ... the...

11
Monthly Communiqué Portfolio Management Services Regn No. PMS INP 000000670 May 2014 Dear Investors and my dear Advisor friends; I have been writing to you about our investment philosophy of BUY RIGHT : SIT TIGHT which we follow so as to manage your money in a disciplined; process oriented manner targeted at not just generating returns but for creating wealth. This month, I would like elaborate a bit about this and explain to you why in the Indian context this is critical to follow over the next few years. Wealth Creation by investing in equity requires two traits 1. The ability to identify good companies and 2. The discipline to stay invested over a long period of time in order to realize the full growth potential of the stock. Good quality companies are in business for decades but investors change their views about these companies every year, every quarter, every month and sometimes every day! While many investors get the first part of identifying good stocks, hardly anyone stays invested for a long enough time. The temptation to book profits at 25% or 50% or even 100% returns in a 1 to 3 year period is so natural that people miss out the chance of multiplication in wealth that happens only over long periods of say 5 to 10 years. The findings of 18th Motilal Oswal Wealth Creation Study-2013 shows that quality stocks have grown ~200 to 300 times over a period of two decades. If you wish to see the video of Mr. Agrawal's presentation and the panel discussion please click on the link below: Videos: http://www.motilaloswal.com/Financial-Services/Knowledge-Centre/Videos/17 http://www.motilaloswal.com/Financial-Services/Knowledge-Centre/Videos/18 Needless to say, one would have benefitted from this growth only if he or she had remained invested instead of making attempts at cashing out and trading in alternatively. Why is this important for investing in Indian stock markets? In a recent interview when I was asked about the long term view for India, I had stated that over the next five to seven years I am expecting today's Sensex value to be actually the Nifty value! Favorable demographics remain the underlying driver of growth for India. While consumption has contributed disproportionately to economic growth in India in the last 6 years, we believe a more focused leadership at the state and central levels will be critical to remove policy road-blocks and help drive investment-led growth. Favorable policy environment should also help exports pick up steam. The economic situation is in a turnaround mode and likely political consolidation happening at the same time should result in a huge upward move in equity markets. While some of this analysis tends to be more technical in nature, I am going to share two slightly long but logical calculations on why todays Sensex value may be the Nifty value in the foreseeable future. Analysis 1: i) Today, the size of our economy (GDP) is approx. Rs. 110 lakh crores ii) Economic (GDP) growth rate at conservative estimates like last 5 years is equal to 6% real growth + 7% inflation which sums up to 13% nominal growth. iii) Size of the economy (GDP) after 10 years at the same pace might be approx. Rs. 373 lakh crores. iv) During last 10 years, the range of Corporate Profits / GDP ratio has been approx. 2.7% to 6.0%. Corporate Profits / GDP means the total profits of all listed companies as a percentage of the size of the economy as a whole. v) Currently it is at 4% to the GDP, thus Corporate Profits may be quantified at approx Rs. 4.4 lakh crores. Our Investment philosophy - BUY RIGHT. SIT TIGHT Quality : Quality of business and management Growth : Growth in earnings and sustained RoE Longevity : Longevity of the competitive advantage /economic moat of the business Price : Buying a good business for a fair price rather than buying a fair business for a good price. Buy and Hold: We are strictly buy and hold investors and believe that picking the right business needs skill and holding onto these business to enable our investors to benefit from the entire growth cycle, needs even more skill. Focus: Our portfolios are high conviction portfolios with 20 to 25 stocks being our ideal number. We believe in adequate diversification but over-diversification results in diluting returns for our investors and adding market risk. Buy Right Sit Tight (Continued overleaf)

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Page 1: NEWS LETTER PMS May 2014 -  · PDF fileWe believe in adequate diversification ... the corporate profits in such case would be approx Rs. 15 lakh ... Bajaj Finance Ltd

MonthlyCommuniqué

Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670

May 2014

Dear Investors and my dear Advisor friends;

I have been writing to you about our investment philosophy of BUY RIGHT : SIT TIGHT which we follow so as to manage your money in a disciplined; process oriented manner targeted at not just generating returns but for creating wealth. This month, I would like elaborate a bit about this and explain to you why in the Indian context this is critical to follow over the next few years.

Wealth Creation by investing in equity requires two traits

1. The ability to identify good companies and

2. The discipline to stay invested over a long period of time in order to realize the full growth potential of the stock.

Good quality companies are in business for decades but investors change their views about these companies every year, every quarter, every month and sometimes every day! While many investors get the first part of identifying good stocks, hardly anyone stays invested for a long enough time. The temptation to book profits at 25% or 50% or even 100% returns in a 1 to 3 year period is so natural that people miss out the chance of multiplication in wealth that happens only over long periods of say 5 to 10 years. The findings of 18th Motilal Oswal Wealth Creation Study-2013 shows that quality stocks have grown ~200 to 300 times over a period of two decades. If you wish to see the video of Mr. Agrawal's presentation and the panel discussion please click on the link below:

Videos: http://www.motilaloswal.com/Financial-Services/Knowledge-Centre/Videos/17

http://www.motilaloswal.com/Financial-Services/Knowledge-Centre/Videos/18

Needless to say, one would have benefitted from this growth only if he or she had remained invested instead of making attempts at cashing out and trading in alternatively.

Why is this important for investing in Indian stock markets? In a recent interview when I was asked about the long term view for India, I had stated that over the next five to seven years I am expecting today's Sensex value to be actually the Nifty value! Favorable demographics remain the underlying driver of growth for India. While consumption has contributed disproportionately to economic growth in India in the last 6 years, we believe a more focused leadership at the state and central levels will be critical to remove policy road-blocks and help drive investment-led growth. Favorable policy environment should also help exports pick up steam. The economic situation is in a turnaround mode and likely political consolidation happening at the same time should result in a huge upward move in equity markets.

While some of this analysis tends to be more technical in nature, I am going to share two slightly long but logical calculations on why todays Sensex value may be the Nifty value in the foreseeable future.

Analysis 1:

i) Today, the size of our economy (GDP) is approx. Rs. 110 lakh crores

ii) Economic (GDP) growth rate at conservative estimates like last 5 years is equal to 6% real growth + 7% inflation which sums up to 13% nominal growth.

iii) Size of the economy (GDP) after 10 years at the same pace might be approx. Rs. 373 lakh crores.

iv) During last 10 years, the range of Corporate Profits / GDP ratio has been approx. 2.7% to 6.0%. Corporate Profits / GDP means the total profits of all listed companies as a percentage of the size of the economy as a whole.

v) Currently it is at 4% to the GDP, thus Corporate Profits may be quantified at approx Rs. 4.4 lakh crores.

Our Investment philosophy - BUY RIGHT. SIT TIGHT

Quality : Quality of business and management

Growth : Growth in earnings and sustained RoE

Longevity : Longevity of the competitive advantage /economic moat of the business

Price : Buying a good business for a fair price rather than buying a fair business for a good price.

Buy and Hold: We are strictly buy and hold investors and believe that picking the right business needs skill and holding onto these business to enable our investors to benefit from the entire growth cycle, needs even more skill.

Focus: Our portfolios are high conviction portfolios with 20 to 25 stocks being our ideal number. We believe in adequate diversification but over-diversification results in diluting returns for our investors and adding market risk.

Buy Right Sit Tight

(Continued overleaf)

Page 2: NEWS LETTER PMS May 2014 -  · PDF fileWe believe in adequate diversification ... the corporate profits in such case would be approx Rs. 15 lakh ... Bajaj Finance Ltd

Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670

vi) Long Term average PE ratio is 16 times.

vii) Current Market Cap is approximately 16 times multiplied by Rs. 4.4 lakh crores is higher than Rs. 70 lakh crores (which is indeed close to current market cap).

viii) 10 years hence, assuming corporate profit to GDP remains unchanged at 4%, the corporate profits in such case would be approx Rs. 15 lakh crores. (4% of Rs 373 lac crores)

ix) Assume PE also remains as per long term average of 16 times, market cap may become Rs. 239 lakh crores

x) With market cap at Rs. 70 lakh crores today, Nifty is at 6500 points. So if market cap goes to Rs. 239 lakh crores, what will Nifty be???? By simple multiplications it will be approximately 22000 points.

You may now calculate the Nifty if the following extremes are tested in the market which are always tested depending on whether we are in bull or bear market:

1) What if GDP grows at 9% real growth instead of 6% growth?

2) What if corporate profits to GDP ratio is 6% instead of 4%?

3) What if market's PE is 24 times as in past peak instead of current 16 times average?

You will find that Nifty will be equal to today's Sensex in worst case. For best case, I leave the calculations to you !

Analysis 2:

In the market peak of FY08 the size of the economy (GDP) was Rs 45 lakh crores and the market cap of India was Rs 75 lakh crores. Today the GDP is Rs. 110 lakh crores but market is still between Rs 70 lakh to Rs. 75 lakh crores.

Historically the range of market cap to GDP ratio has been between 0.5 to 1.75 times.

Over the next 5 years at say 13% nominal growth rate take above the GDP may be Rs 202 lakh crores. In this period if the market cap to GDP ratio is 0.5 you will get 6% return on equity, if market cap to GDP ratio is 1 time you may get 22% return on equity and if you are in an equity party where market cap to GDP gets to its peak of 1.75 times, you may get 36.5% return on your equity investment.

Should you be in any asset class other than equity? And what should your percentage allocation to equity?

As always, I would love to hear from you. Incase of any further clarifications sought or feedback, please feel free to write back to me at [email protected]

Aashish P SomaiyaaManaging Director and CEOMotilal Oswal Asset Management Company Limited

Page 3: NEWS LETTER PMS May 2014 -  · PDF fileWe believe in adequate diversification ... the corporate profits in such case would be approx Rs. 15 lakh ... Bajaj Finance Ltd

Value Strategy

Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670

• Value based stock selection

• Investment Approach: Buy & Hold

• Investments with Long term perspective

• Maximize post tax return due to Low Churn

Investment Strategy

The Strategy aims to benefit from the long

term compounding effect on investments

done in good businesses, run by great

business managers for superior wealth

creation.

Strategy Objective

Fund Manager : Manish Sonthalia

Strategy Type : Open ended

Date of Inception : 24th March 2003

Benchmark : CNX Nifty

Investment Horizon: 3 Years +

Subscription : Daily

Redemption : Daily

Valuation Point : Daily

Details

Top Sectors

Banking & Finance

Auto & Auto Ancillaries

Infotech

FMCG

Pharmaceuticals

Engineering & Electricals

Cash

26.86

26.68

16.99

10.35

8.07

6.37

0.46

Sector Allocation % Allocation*

Top Holdings

Eicher Motors Ltd.HDFC Bank Ltd.Bosch Ltd.Tech Mahindra LimitedHousing Development Finance Corporation Ltd.Infosys Technologies Ltd.State Bank Of IndiaLarsen & Toubro Ltd.Asian Paints Ltd.Hero Motocorp LimitedDivis Laboratories Ltd

Top Holdings % Allocation*

11.2711.0410.108.858.218.147.616.375.485.315.28

Key Portfolio Analysis

Standard Deviation (%)

Beta

30.64

1.00

Performance Data NiftyValue Strategy

27.28

0.81

*Above 5% & Cash

The Above strategy returns are of a Model Client. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on factors such as time of entry/exit/ additional inflows in the strategy. The Above returns are calculated on NAV basis and are based on the closing market prices as on 30th April 2014. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns above 1 year are annualized. Please refer to the disclosure document for further information.

*Above 5%

Value Strategy Nifty All Figures in %

Periods

% o

f re

turn

s

13.22

8.556.43

8.03

16.41

25.03

12.92 12.96

5.216.13

14.02

18.55

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year Since Inception

Page 4: NEWS LETTER PMS May 2014 -  · PDF fileWe believe in adequate diversification ... the corporate profits in such case would be approx Rs. 15 lakh ... Bajaj Finance Ltd

Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity Strategy

Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670

Key Portfolio Analysis

Period

Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity Strategy CNX MIDCAP

The strategy aims to deliver superior

returns by investing in focused themes

which are part of the next Trillion Dollar

GDP growth opportunity. It aims to

predominantly invest in Small & Mid Cap

stocks with a focus on Identifying

Emerging Stocks/Sectors.

• Stocks with Reasonable Valuation

• Concentration on Emerging Themes

• Buy & Hold Strategy

Fund Manager : Manish Sonthalia

Strategy Type : Open ended

Date of Inception : 11th Dec. 2007

Benchmark : CNX MIDCAP

Investment Horizon: 3 Years +

Subscription : Daily

Redemption : Daily

Valuation Point : Daily

Strategy Objective

Investment Strategy

Details

26.48

21.47

20.89

8.23

7.87

7.12

0.40

Sector Allocation

13.91

13.34

7.87

7.55

7.30

6.31

6.23

5.21

5.04

Standard Deviation (%)

Beta

32.00

1.00

Performance Data CNX MIDCAPNTDOP

22.85

0.57

Top Sectors

Sector Allocation % Allocation*

Top Holdings

Top Holdings % Allocation*

The Above strategy returns are of a Model Client. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on factors such as time of entry/exit/ additional inflows in the strategy. The Above returns are calculated on NAV basis and are based on the closing market prices as on 30th April 2014. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns above 1 year are annualized. Please refer to the disclosure document for further information.

*Above 5% & Cash

*Above 5%

FMCG

Banking & Finance

Auto & Auto Ancillaries

Diversified

Pharmaceuticals

Engineering & Electricals

Cash

Page Industries Ltd.

Eicher Motors Ltd.

Ipca Lab Ltd.

Bosch Ltd.

J&k Bank

Bajaj Finance Ltd.

GlaxoSmithkline Consumer Healthcare Ltd.

Voltas Ltd.

Cummins India Ltd.

% o

f re

turn

s

31.66

23.96

21.6318.61

30.31

12.7212.34

8.43

2.31 2.17

17.86

0.580.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year SinceInception

All Figures in %

Page 5: NEWS LETTER PMS May 2014 -  · PDF fileWe believe in adequate diversification ... the corporate profits in such case would be approx Rs. 15 lakh ... Bajaj Finance Ltd

Invest India Strategy

Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670

Key Portfolio Analysis

Invest India Strategy BSE 200 All Figures in %

Period

The Strategy aims to generate long term

capital appreciation by creating a focused

portfolio of high growth stocks having the

potential to grow more than the nominal

GDP for next 5-7 years across market

capitalization and which are available at

reasonable market prices.

• Buy Growth Stocks across Market capitalization which have the potential to grow at 1.5 times the nominal GDP for next 5-7 years.

• BUY & HOLD strategy, leading to low to medium churn thereby enhancing post-tax returns

Fund Manager : Kunal Jadhwani

Strategy Type : Open ended

Date of Inception : 11th Feb. 2010

Benchmark : BSE 200

Investment Horizon: 3 Years +

Subscription : Daily

Redemption : Daily

Valuation Point : Daily

Strategy Objective

Investment Strategy

Details

Banking & FinanceFMCGPharmaceuticalsInfotechAuto & Auto AncillariesAlcoholic Beverages and DistilleriesEngineering & ElectricalsChemicalsRetailCash

23.8219.9312.8410.077.486.976.656.395.380.46

Sector Allocation

Standard Deviation (%)

Beta

20.86

1.00

Performance Data BSE 200IIS

18.01

0.75

Top Sectors

Sector Allocation % Allocation*

The Above strategy returns are of a Model Client. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on factors such as time of entry/exit/ additional inflows in the strategy. The Above returns are calculated on NAV basis and are based on the closing market prices as on 30th April 2014. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns above 1 year are annualized. Please refer to the disclosure document for further information.

*Above 5% & Cash

Page Industries Ltd.

HDFC Bank Ltd.

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.

Ipca Lab Ltd.

United Spirits Limited

Larsen & Toubro Ltd.

Pidilite Industries Limited

Bata India Ltd.

ITC Ltd.

12.12

11.07

10.07

9.32

6.97

6.65

6.39

5.38

5.10

Top Holdings

Top Holdings % Allocation*

*Above 5%

-1.94

8.05 7.79

10.25

7.34

5.46

8.31

0.25

10.83

7.93

12.52 12.16

4.38

6.67

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year Since Inception

% o

f re

turn

s

Page 6: NEWS LETTER PMS May 2014 -  · PDF fileWe believe in adequate diversification ... the corporate profits in such case would be approx Rs. 15 lakh ... Bajaj Finance Ltd

Focused Series IV - Flexi Cap Strategy

Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670

Key Portfolio Analysis

Period

Standard Deviation (%)

Beta

21.27

1.00

Performance Data BSE 200Focused Series - IV

18.37

0.69

The Strategy aims to generate superior returns over a medium to long term by investing in only 8-10 companies across market capitalization. The Fund Manager will take active asset allocation calls between cash & equity. The strategy will also take active equity allocation calls between investments in large caps & mid caps & it will follow a policy of profit booking with predefined price targets.

• Active Equity Allocation between Mid caps & Large caps

• Active Asset Allocation calls between Cash and Equity

• Strategy will follow a policy of profit booking with predefined price targets

• When the Client’s AUM appreciates by 15%, the appreciation amount will be automatically paid-out.

Portfolio Manager : Kunal Jadhwani

Date of Inception : 07th Dec. 2009

Benchmark : BSE 200

Investment Horizon: 12 – 18 Months

Subscription : No

Redemption : Daily

Valuation Point : Daily

Strategy Objective

Investment Strategy

Details

Banking & Finance

Auto & Auto Ancillaries

FMCG

Infotech

Chemicals

Pharmaceuticals

Engineering & Electricals

Cash

23.66

21.70

13.91

12.97

11.16

10.00

5.60

1.00

Sector Allocation

Bosch Ltd.

Tech Mahindra Limited

Kotak Bank

HDFC Bank Ltd.

Pidilite Industries Limited

Ipca Lab Ltd.

Page Industries Ltd.

Eicher Motors Ltd.

Cummins India Ltd.

13.96

12.97

12.03

11.63

11.16

10.00

9.48

7.75

5.60

Top Sectors

Sector Allocation % Allocation*

Top Holdings

Top Holdings % Allocation*

The Above strategy returns are of a Model Client. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on factors such as time of entry/exit/ additional inflows in the strategy. The Above returns are calculated on NAV basis and are based on the closing market prices as on 30th April 2014. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns above 1 year are annualized. Please refer to the disclosure document for further information.

*Above 5% & Cash

*Above 5%

Focused Series IV BSE 200 All Figures in %

% o

f re

turn

s

-1.58

8.5311.95

24.72

19.25

10.848.53

0.25

10.83

7.93

12.52 12.16

4.38 5.24

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Years 2 Years 3 Years Since Inception

Page 7: NEWS LETTER PMS May 2014 -  · PDF fileWe believe in adequate diversification ... the corporate profits in such case would be approx Rs. 15 lakh ... Bajaj Finance Ltd

Focused Series V - A Contra Strategy

Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670

Key Portfolio Analysis

The strategy aims to invest in fundamentally sound companies that can benefit from changes in a company's valuation which reflects a significant change in the markets view of the company over a horizon of three years. The Strategy focuses on investing in stocks that can benefit from growth in earnings, re-rating of business or higher valuation of assets. Objective is to increase return rather than reduce risk for Investors.

• Buy and hold philosophy – low portfolio churn

• Follows the principle to pick best rather than diversification

Concentrated Strategy Structure of less than 10 stocks

Investment Horizon : Medium to Long term

Fund Manager : Manish Sonthalia

Date of Inception : 27th Sept. 2010

Benchmark : BSE 200

Investment Horizon: 2 to 3 Years

Subscription : Daily

Redemption : Daily

Valuation Point : Daily

Strategy Objective

Investment Strategy

Details

Banking & Finance

Auto & Auto Ancillaries

Oil and Gas

Textiles

Diversified

Engineering & Electricals

Pharmaceuticals

Cash

29.77

19.10

15.11

9.15

8.97

6.37

5.56

0.01

Sector Allocation

Eicher Motors Ltd.

J&k Bank

Ing Vysya Bank Limited

Vardhman Textiles Limited

Petronet LNG Limited

Godrej Indus

Triveni Turbine Limited

Reliance Industries Ltd.

Divis Laboratories Ltd

19.10

18.89

10.89

9.15

9.12

8.97

6.37

5.99

5.56

Standard Deviation (%)

Beta

21.24

1.00

Performance Data BSE 200Focused Series - V

24.86

0.91

Top Sectors

Sector Allocation % Allocation*

Top Holdings

Top Holdings % Allocation*

The Above strategy returns are of a Model Client. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on factors such as time of entry/exit/ additional inflows in the strategy. The Above returns are calculated on NAV basis and are based on the closing market prices as on 30th April 2014. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns above 1 year are annualized. Please refer to the disclosure document for further information.

*Above 5% & Cash

*Above 5%

Focused Series V BSE 200 All Figures in %

Period

% o

f re

turn

s

0.41

16.0416.65

19.62 20.30

8.58

3.97

0.25

10.83

7.93

12.5212.16

4.38

1.57

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year Since Inception

Page 8: NEWS LETTER PMS May 2014 -  · PDF fileWe believe in adequate diversification ... the corporate profits in such case would be approx Rs. 15 lakh ... Bajaj Finance Ltd

Bulls Eye Strategy

Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670

• Active management

• Multi Cap Stategy

• Regular Profit Booking

Investment Strategy

Key Portfolio Analysis

The Strategy aims to deliver returns in the

short to medium term by investing in

fundamentally sound stocks coupled with

active profit booking.

Portfolio Manager : Kunal Jadhwani

Strategy Type : Open ended

Date of Inception : 15th Dec. 2003

Benchmark : BSE 200

Investment Horizon: 12 Months +

Subscription : Daily

Redemption : Daily

Valuation Point : Daily

Strategy Objective

Details

Banking & Finance

Infotech

Pharmaceuticals

Auto & Auto Ancillaries

Engineering & Electricals

Chemicals

FMCG

Retail

Cash

22.96

15.50

14.39

14.21

13.84

6.92

6.26

5.35

0.56

Sector Allocation % Allocation

HDFC Bank Ltd.Tech Mahindra LimitedIpca Lab Ltd.Axis Bank Ltd.Cummins India Ltd.Pidilite Industries LimitedLarsen & Toubro Ltd.Eicher Motors Ltd.Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.ITC Ltd.Lupin Ltd.Bata India Ltd.

10.529.188.388.077.166.926.686.596.326.266.015.35

Standard Deviation (%)

Beta

31.27

1.00

Performance Data BSE 200Bulls Eye

27.84

0.75

Top Sectors

Sector Allocation

Top Holdings

Top Holdings % Allocation*

The Above strategy returns are of a Model Client. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on factors such as time of entry/exit/ additional inflows in the strategy. The Above returns are calculated on NAV basis and are based on the closing market prices as on 30th April 2014. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns above 1 year are annualized. Please refer to the disclosure document for further information.

*Above 5% & Cash

*Above 5%

Bulls Eye Strategy BSE 200

Period

All Figures in %

15.1314.33

10.97

6.60

17.09

13.0612.52 12.16

4.38 4.78

14.9414.01

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year Since Inception

% o

f re

turn

s

Page 9: NEWS LETTER PMS May 2014 -  · PDF fileWe believe in adequate diversification ... the corporate profits in such case would be approx Rs. 15 lakh ... Bajaj Finance Ltd

Optima Strategy

Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670

The Strategy aims to generate superior

returns over the long period by investing

in companies with growth potential and

which are available at reasonable market

price.

• Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP)

• Investment Horizon of 2 years +

• Active Portfolio Rebalancing

• Market Timing

• Situation based Multi Cap approach

Portfolio Manager :

Strategy Type : Open ended

Date of Inception : 30th Dec 2008

Benchmark : BSE 200

Investment Horizon: 2 Years +

Subscription : Daily

Redemption : Daily

Valuation Point : Daily

Kunal Jadhwani

Strategy Objective

Investment Strategy

Details

Banking & Finance

Infotech

Auto & Auto Ancillaries

Engineering & Electricals

Pharmaceuticals

Chemicals

FMCG

Retail

Cash

23.45

14.61

14.38

14.25

14.03

7.12

6.38

5.37

0.41

Sector Allocation

HDFC Bank Ltd.

Tech Mahindra Limited

Axis Bank Ltd.

Ipca Lab Ltd.

Cummins India Ltd.

Pidilite Industries Limited

Larsen & Toubro Ltd.

Eicher Motors Ltd.

ITC Ltd.

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.

Lupin Ltd.

Bata India Ltd.

10.91

8.42

8.14

7.99

7.40

7.12

6.85

6.74

6.38

6.19

6.04

5.37

Key Portfolio Analysis

Standard Deviation (%)

Beta

26.20

1.00

Performance Data BSE 200Optima

19.49

0.62

Top Sectors

Sector Allocation % Allocation*

Top Holdings

Top Holdings % Allocation*

*Above 5% & Cash

*Above 5%

The Above strategy returns are of a Model Client. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on factors such as time of entry/exit/ additional inflows in the strategy. The Above returns are calculated on NAV basis and are based on the closing market prices as on 30th April 2014. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns above 1 year are annualized. Please refer to the disclosure document for further information.

Period

Optima Strategy BSE 200 All Figures in %

% o

f re

turn

s 15.26

13.17

9.019.80

18.14

20.85

12.52 12.16

4.38 4.78

14.94

17.54

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

1 Years 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years SinceInception

Page 10: NEWS LETTER PMS May 2014 -  · PDF fileWe believe in adequate diversification ... the corporate profits in such case would be approx Rs. 15 lakh ... Bajaj Finance Ltd

Portfolio Actions

Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670

In the previous month, we have reduced our exposure from Nestle India in our Value Strategy.

After 2 years of low growth v/s historical growth of Nestle India (18-19%) and post the recent interaction with new CEO, we believe that it will take few years for Nestle India to be back to 18-19% growth trend, but it is a great franchise to own as Nestle India still maintains leadership position in segments they have presence in. Growth has been impacted due to overall slowdown in discretionary spending.

We have used the proceeds to take fresh positions into Sun Pharma.

• Sun Pharma is among the largest players in the domestic formulations market and the most profitable one. It makes and markets specialty medicines and Active Pharmaceuticals Ingredients (APIs) for chronic therapy areas such as cardiology, psychiatry, neurology, etc.

• Sun Pharma has ability to identify niches in long term therapy areas with high entry barriers and build strong franchise to ensure sustainable growth and high margins.

• Sustaining superior profitability on higher base is a strong positive.

• One of the strongest Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) pipelines from India with 131 ANDAs pending approval. The pipeline includes a combination of low-competition, patent challenge and normal product opportunities.

Key investment arguments:-

• Sun Pharma acquired Ranbaxy for USD 4 billion, diversifies India business, strengthens position in emerging markets, deal valued at 2.2x sales.

• Post the acquisition, Sun Pharma will be a leading player in 13 therapies in India, gaining entry into the fast growing OTC space in India with brands like Revital & Volini,

• It has establish a footprint across 55 emerging markets.

• Sun Pharma became the fifth largest global specialty company and No. 1 pharma company in India with combined market share of 9.2% versus 6.5% for Abbott as per AIOCD-AWACS.

• The company is a leading generic company in the generic derma space in the US, which is world's largest pharma market. It now has strong pipeline of 184 ANDAs including high-value FTFs

• The company expects to realize its synergies through stronger sales growth, efficient procurement and supply chain efficiencies. It also intends to leverage the human resources.

• Keeping the strong acquisition track record in mind, we expect Ranbaxy's assets to show a better performance under Sun Pharma. However, synergy benefits will take time to materialize and may only happen over a period of 24-30 months

• At our buying price Sun Pharma was trading at 23x FY15E EPS of 26 with ROE of 27% & ROCE of 41%. We expect profits to grow at 20% CAGR for next 3 – 5 years.

From our Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity Portfolio, we exited our holdings in Mcleod Russel, the leading black tea producer in India. We have done this change to create liquidity to take position into Colgate Palmolive India Ltd. (CPIL), which is expected to deliver better earnings growth over the next 2-3 years.

• CPIL's volume growth at close to double-digit YoY for 23 consecutive quarters is not only unparalleled among fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) peers, but it is also sustaining this level, which is remarkable given the sharp slowdown witnessed by FMCG peers.

• Oral care product consumption per gram is much lower in India compared to some emerging market peers. Less than 10% of Indians brush their teeth twice a day, a habit which is not widely prevalent even in urban areas. Over 325 million people in the country do not use toothpaste at all.

• Volume growth is led by strong rural toothpaste demand (low rural penetration of 63%, as per IMRB), CPIL's rapidly increasing rural reach (the plan to double rural reach in three years is already underway), its dominance at the lower end (market share higher than its overall 56% toothpaste market share), unmatched category development efforts in schools and villages, and the ongoing shift in consumer preference from toothpowder to toothpaste.

• Other industry entry barriers are brand power, category development efforts, dedicated focus, and track record in emerging markets where CPIL take the edge.

• CPIL's valuation at 30xFY15E earnings is attractive, particularly when strong EPS growth of 22-24% CAGR likely over the next two years is accompanied by high RoE and RoCE of ~90% each and a dividend yield of around 3%.

Page 11: NEWS LETTER PMS May 2014 -  · PDF fileWe believe in adequate diversification ... the corporate profits in such case would be approx Rs. 15 lakh ... Bajaj Finance Ltd

Portfolio Management ServicesRegn No. PMS INP 000000670

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The given stocks are part of portfolio of a model client of Value Strategy and NTDOP Strategy as on 30th April 2014. The stock forming part of the existing portfolio under Value Strategy and NTDOP Strategy may or may not be bought for new client. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments. Name of the PMS Strategies does not in any manner indicate its future prospects and returns. The Companies mentioned above is only for the purpose of explaining the concept and should not be construed as recommendations from MOAMC.

Risk Disclosure And DisclaimerC

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