nextgen and the weather information database. 2 overview nextgen 101 what is the weather information...
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NextGen and the Weather Information
Database
NextGen and the Weather Information
Database
2
OverviewOverviewNextGen 101
What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the Single Authoritative Source
Why NOAA?
What are we doing now
The roadmap ahead
Broader benefits to NOAA
Science Issues and the 4-D Cube
Summary
NextGen 101
What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the Single Authoritative Source
Why NOAA?
What are we doing now
The roadmap ahead
Broader benefits to NOAA
Science Issues and the 4-D Cube
Summary
3
NextGen 101NextGen 101
What exactly is NextGen???Air transportation network which stresses adaptability by enabling aircraft to immediately adjust to ever-changing factors such as: weather, traffic congestion, aircraft position via GPS, flight trajectory patterns, and security issues
By 2025, all aircraft and airports in U.S. airspace will be connected to the NextGen network and will continually share information in real time to improve efficiency, safety, and absorb the predicted increase in air transportation
NextGen was enacted in 2003 by President Bush and Congress. In this initiative, the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) is responsible for managing a public/private partnership to bring NextGen online by 2025
JPDO coordinates the specialized efforts of the Departments of Transportation, Defense, Homeland Security, Commerce, FAA, NASA, and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy
What exactly is NextGen???Air transportation network which stresses adaptability by enabling aircraft to immediately adjust to ever-changing factors such as: weather, traffic congestion, aircraft position via GPS, flight trajectory patterns, and security issues
By 2025, all aircraft and airports in U.S. airspace will be connected to the NextGen network and will continually share information in real time to improve efficiency, safety, and absorb the predicted increase in air transportation
NextGen was enacted in 2003 by President Bush and Congress. In this initiative, the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) is responsible for managing a public/private partnership to bring NextGen online by 2025
JPDO coordinates the specialized efforts of the Departments of Transportation, Defense, Homeland Security, Commerce, FAA, NASA, and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy
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The 8 Key CapabilitiesThe 8 Key Capabilities
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NextGen 101NextGen 101
Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS)
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information (better content, better assimilation, better consistency, etc…)
"A key finding, based on an analysis of several 2005-2006 convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct3, 2007
Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS)
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information (better content, better assimilation, better consistency, etc…)
"A key finding, based on an analysis of several 2005-2006 convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct3, 2007
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NextGen 101NextGen 101
“The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.”*
Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion.
Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion.
Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden.
*Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again; Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008
“The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.”*
Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion.
Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion.
Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden.
*Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again; Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008
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NextGen 101NextGen 101
NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information into decision support systems
NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on:
Providing a multiple user common weather picture
Consistent and reliable weather information
An improved weather information data storage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., the WIDB or the “4 Dimensional Weather Data Cube”) enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities
NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information into decision support systems
NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on:
Providing a multiple user common weather picture
Consistent and reliable weather information
An improved weather information data storage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., the WIDB or the “4 Dimensional Weather Data Cube”) enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities
8
NextGen 101;Key ThemesNextGen 101;Key Themes
A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is envisioned:
“Network Enabled”…
An information network that makes information available, securable, and usable in real time
Information may be pushed to known users and is available to be pulled by others
Weather information sharing is two-way
“Virtual” repository with no single physical database or computer
Conceptually unified source distributed among multiple physical locations and suppliers, of which NOAA is the leading data supplier
A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is envisioned:
“Network Enabled”…
An information network that makes information available, securable, and usable in real time
Information may be pushed to known users and is available to be pulled by others
Weather information sharing is two-way
“Virtual” repository with no single physical database or computer
Conceptually unified source distributed among multiple physical locations and suppliers, of which NOAA is the leading data supplier
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NextGen Weather BasicsNextGen Weather Basics
TodayToday NextGenNextGen(new requirements)(new requirements)
Not integrated into aviation Not integrated into aviation decision support systems decision support systems (DSS)(DSS)
Today’s requirements can Today’s requirements can lead to inconsistent infolead to inconsistent info
Low temporal resolution (for Low temporal resolution (for aviation decision making aviation decision making purposes)purposes)
Disseminated in minutesDisseminated in minutes
Updated by scheduleUpdated by schedule
Fixed product formats Fixed product formats (graphic or text)(graphic or text)
Totally integrated into DSSTotally integrated into DSS
Updated requirements/ Updated requirements/ Nationally consistentNationally consistent
High temporal resolutionHigh temporal resolution
Disseminated in secondsDisseminated in seconds
Updated by events Updated by events
Flexible formatsFlexible formats
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What is the WIDB?What is the WIDB?
The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) will contain:
Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters)
High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models)
Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013)Turbulence
Icing
Convection
Ceiling and visibility
Winds (surface and aloft)
The WIDB of the future will contain “all” weather data, not just aviation parameters.
The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) will contain:
Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters)
High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models)
Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013)Turbulence
Icing
Convection
Ceiling and visibility
Winds (surface and aloft)
The WIDB of the future will contain “all” weather data, not just aviation parameters.
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What is the 4-D WeatherSingle Authoritative Source?
What is the 4-D WeatherSingle Authoritative Source?The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS):
Is only a portion of the WIDB
Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.)
Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA
Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy
The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS):
Is only a portion of the WIDB
Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.)
Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA
Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy
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The WIDB:A Conceptual ModelThe WIDB:A Conceptual Model
WIDB
CustomGraphic
Generators
CustomGraphic
Generators
Integration into User DecisionsIntegration into User Decisions
DecisionSupportSystems
DecisionSupportSystems
CustomAlphanumeric
Generators
CustomAlphanumeric
Generators
ObservationsObservationsNumericalModelingSystems
NumericalModelingSystems
StatisticalForecasting
Systems
StatisticalForecasting
Systems
NWSForecaster
NWSForecaster
ForecastingForecasting
Automated ForecastSystems
Automated ForecastSystems
Forecast IntegrationForecast Integration
4D WxSAS
RadarsRadars
AircraftAircraft
SurfaceSurface
SatellitesSatellites
SoundingsSoundings
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Why NOAA?Why NOAA?
NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator of this data cube based on its:
Extensive experience with data ingest and assimilation
Ownership of major observation and modeling capabilities
Experienced meteorological workforce
Legislative mandate to provide weather to the FAA
Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and NDFD
NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator of this data cube based on its:
Extensive experience with data ingest and assimilation
Ownership of major observation and modeling capabilities
Experienced meteorological workforce
Legislative mandate to provide weather to the FAA
Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and NDFD
14
Why NOAA?Why NOAA?
“NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather Information Services as this responsibility is core to NOAA’s mission, and we are confident that [the IWP] will enable us to better align NOAA’s weather portfolio with NextGen”
Mary Glackin; April 7, 2008
“NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather Information Services as this responsibility is core to NOAA’s mission, and we are confident that [the IWP] will enable us to better align NOAA’s weather portfolio with NextGen”
Mary Glackin; April 7, 2008
Integrated Work Plan Defines Our RoleIntegrated Work Plan Defines Our Role
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So What’s Happening Now?So What’s Happening Now?
Multi-agency initiatives:
NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) IOC Development Team – coordinates teams below:
Environmental Information Team – What’s in the Cube
IT and Enterprise Services Team – Cube IT/”plumbing”
Policy Team – Governance, cost apportionment, data rights, etc…
Demonstration Team – library of government sponsored and private industry demos
Requirements Development – FAA leads development of functional and performance requirements
Integrated Science Roadmap – NOAA’s OAR leading initiative
Multi-agency initiatives:
NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) IOC Development Team – coordinates teams below:
Environmental Information Team – What’s in the Cube
IT and Enterprise Services Team – Cube IT/”plumbing”
Policy Team – Governance, cost apportionment, data rights, etc…
Demonstration Team – library of government sponsored and private industry demos
Requirements Development – FAA leads development of functional and performance requirements
Integrated Science Roadmap – NOAA’s OAR leading initiative
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The Roadmap AheadThe Roadmap Ahead
Initial Operational Capability (2013)
Integrated environmental information sources
Initial meteorologist oversight of gridded data
Common data standards and protocols
Initial integration of diverse weather elements into decision support tools
Intermediate Capability (2016)
Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information
Full Network compatibility of environmental information
Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems
Full Operational Capability (2022)
All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved
High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements
Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups
Initial Operational Capability (2013)
Integrated environmental information sources
Initial meteorologist oversight of gridded data
Common data standards and protocols
Initial integration of diverse weather elements into decision support tools
Intermediate Capability (2016)
Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information
Full Network compatibility of environmental information
Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems
Full Operational Capability (2022)
All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved
High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements
Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups
17
4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA
4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA
Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services
Consistency challenges not unique to aviation
More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements
Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts
Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies
Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services
Consistency challenges not unique to aviation
More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements
Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts
Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies
18
4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA
4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA
Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube
Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA
IT and Data Management enhancements
Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation
Support GEOSS requirements
Enhances continuity of operations
Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, GOES, NEXRAD, etc…
Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube
Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA
IT and Data Management enhancements
Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation
Support GEOSS requirements
Enhances continuity of operations
Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, GOES, NEXRAD, etc…
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Science Issues and ChallengesScience Issues and Challenges
Consistency
The Forecast Process
Convective Modeling
Model Enhancements and Improvements
Verification
Consistency
The Forecast Process
Convective Modeling
Model Enhancements and Improvements
Verification
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The “Consistency” IssueThe “Consistency” Issue
The FAA requirements consider consistency just as important as accuracy
Consistency Challenges:
Spatial
Internal
“Representativeness” – (Does a click inside the cube really represent what I see outside?)
The FAA requirements consider consistency just as important as accuracy
Consistency Challenges:
Spatial
Internal
“Representativeness” – (Does a click inside the cube really represent what I see outside?)
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NextGen Weather ChallengesNextGen Weather Challenges
The Forecast Process:Most existing NWS forecast processes not designed to meet the resolution, refresh and latency requirements of NextGen
Temporal and Spatial resolution – Are NextGen observation and forecast requirements viable? Will model researchers and developers have the resources available?
NOAA and research partner R&D focusing on Meteorologist-in-the-Loop (MITL) and Meteorologist-over-the-Loop (MOTL) techniques
Changing forecast process culture is complex and possibly controversial
The Forecast Process:Most existing NWS forecast processes not designed to meet the resolution, refresh and latency requirements of NextGen
Temporal and Spatial resolution – Are NextGen observation and forecast requirements viable? Will model researchers and developers have the resources available?
NOAA and research partner R&D focusing on Meteorologist-in-the-Loop (MITL) and Meteorologist-over-the-Loop (MOTL) techniques
Changing forecast process culture is complex and possibly controversial
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Convective ModelingConvective Modeling
Aviation requirements are demanding higher resolution models
Convection in the short term time frame:
0-2 hours for tactical planning
2-8 hours for strategic planning
Resolution requirements based on
Terminal – within 100km radius of an airport, aka Super Density Operations (SDO)
Enroute – within the National Airspace System (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO)
Global – outside the NAS
Aviation requirements are demanding higher resolution models
Convection in the short term time frame:
0-2 hours for tactical planning
2-8 hours for strategic planning
Resolution requirements based on
Terminal – within 100km radius of an airport, aka Super Density Operations (SDO)
Enroute – within the National Airspace System (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO)
Global – outside the NAS
2323
VerificationVerification
NextGen suggests verification schemes that measure operational impacts
Move away from traditional verification methodology like PoD and FAR
An example is the Weather Impact Traffic Index, WITI
Measures efficiency of the NAS operation, but weather is only one factor
Factors in airport capacity, time of day, traffic corridor, etc…
NWS/FAA is collaboratively working on the “Terminal Forecast WITI” which is a forecast of the NAS operation at a terminal or a corridor
NextGen suggests verification schemes that measure operational impacts
Move away from traditional verification methodology like PoD and FAR
An example is the Weather Impact Traffic Index, WITI
Measures efficiency of the NAS operation, but weather is only one factor
Factors in airport capacity, time of day, traffic corridor, etc…
NWS/FAA is collaboratively working on the “Terminal Forecast WITI” which is a forecast of the NAS operation at a terminal or a corridor
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SummarySummary
NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced
The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process
NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond
Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube
The FAA is leading the Integration effort and this is just getting started
NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced
The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process
NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond
Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube
The FAA is leading the Integration effort and this is just getting started
25
SummarySummary
The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and the NWS beyond aviation
There are many important science issues, including consistency, model resolution, observation strategies, and verification which must be addressed as we move toward a comprehensive 4-D Wx Cube
The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and the NWS beyond aviation
There are many important science issues, including consistency, model resolution, observation strategies, and verification which must be addressed as we move toward a comprehensive 4-D Wx Cube
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BACKGROUND SLIDES
What can we leverage….
BACKGROUND SLIDES
What can we leverage….
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What can we leverage?What can we leverage?
Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS)
Extremely popular aviation weather web service
Not just a display capability
Already has many NextGen data service capabilities
Data service easily capable of supporting the standards and protocols envisioned with NextGen
Has existing capability to support 4D data cube
Slices, dices, and returns a subset of data (flight paths or subset cubes)
Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS)
Extremely popular aviation weather web service
Not just a display capability
Already has many NextGen data service capabilities
Data service easily capable of supporting the standards and protocols envisioned with NextGen
Has existing capability to support 4D data cube
Slices, dices, and returns a subset of data (flight paths or subset cubes)
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/http://adds.aviationweather.gov/
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What can we leverage?What can we leverage?National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)
Could be called the “SAS” of public weather forecast mission
Net-centric approach
Need to add aviation parameters in the vertical
Logistically very complicated if to be populated by each WFO
National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)
Could be called the “SAS” of public weather forecast mission
Net-centric approach
Need to add aviation parameters in the vertical
Logistically very complicated if to be populated by each WFO
29
What can we leverage?What can we leverage?
Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions (IC4D)
Aviation weather research community (NCAR) now producing 4-D (x, y, z, t) gridded guidance for parameters such as turbulence and icing (RUC2-based)
operational forecasters may be able to add skill to the forecast guidance
Interacting with a 4-D data set containing multiple parameters presents a huge challenge, operationally
Alaska AAWU working with IC4D and has provided positive feedback
Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions (IC4D)
Aviation weather research community (NCAR) now producing 4-D (x, y, z, t) gridded guidance for parameters such as turbulence and icing (RUC2-based)
operational forecasters may be able to add skill to the forecast guidance
Interacting with a 4-D data set containing multiple parameters presents a huge challenge, operationally
Alaska AAWU working with IC4D and has provided positive feedback
30
What can we leverage?What can we leverage?
Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)
Hourly updates of GFS MOS data for aviation
Uses hourly observations (METAR, lightning, and radar data) to update MOS guidance
Statistically outperforming persistence and MOS during early forecast periods
Currently have gridded probabilistic thunderstorm forecasts
Moving toward other gridded products, including probabilistic ceiling height and visibility forecasts
Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)
Hourly updates of GFS MOS data for aviation
Uses hourly observations (METAR, lightning, and radar data) to update MOS guidance
Statistically outperforming persistence and MOS during early forecast periods
Currently have gridded probabilistic thunderstorm forecasts
Moving toward other gridded products, including probabilistic ceiling height and visibility forecasts
31
What can we leverage?What can we leverage?
Auto-nowcaster
a program to determine the role of the forecaster in providing value-added enhancements to automated, gridded aviation convective products
goal is to improve the consistency, reliability, and accuracy of 0-2 hour convective forecast products for automated aviation weather digital products (4-D grids) for the NAS
being considered in 2009 as part of a multi-agency NextGen demo in Florida
Auto-nowcaster
a program to determine the role of the forecaster in providing value-added enhancements to automated, gridded aviation convective products
goal is to improve the consistency, reliability, and accuracy of 0-2 hour convective forecast products for automated aviation weather digital products (4-D grids) for the NAS
being considered in 2009 as part of a multi-agency NextGen demo in Florida
32
Thanks for your time!Thanks for your time!
Any questions?
Please contact [email protected]
Any questions?
Please contact [email protected]