nga-west2 research program...nga-west2 status (cont’d) ! draft final reports on horizontal and...
TRANSCRIPT
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NGA-West2 Research Program
Yousef Bozorgnia, Ph.D., P.E. Executive Director, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), University of California, Berkeley
November 15, 2012, UC Berkeley
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Internet Access for Participants in the
Auditorium
OR
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Internet Participants: If you have questions,
please send an email to:
Christine Goulet:
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NGA-West2 Research Program
Yousef Bozorgnia, Ph.D., P.E. Executive Director, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), University of California, Berkeley
November 15, 2012, UC Berkeley
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NGA-West1 n NGA-West1 (Original NGA Project)
n PEER compiled a very comprehensive database of ground motions recorded in shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions
n Numerous supporting research studies were also carried out
n In 2008, Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) were developed
n USGS adopted the NGA-West1 GMPEs for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps
n NGA-West2 is a follow-up of NGA-West1
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Sponsors of NGA-West2
n Supports of the sponsors are appreciated
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NGA-West2 Sub-Projects
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Update worldwide database
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Update worldwide database
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From NGA-West1 to NGA-West2 the size of database was increased by a factor of 5.5
Update worldwide database
NGA-West2 database includes over 19,000 three-component recordings…
over 57,000 records
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Moderate-to-large magnitude worldwide database
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Moderate-to-large magnitude worldwide database
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Earthquake Name* Year M N Rec Rrup Range (km) Tottori, Japan 2000 6.61 414 1-333 Niigata, Japan 2004 6.63 530 8-300 Chuetsu-oki, Japan 2007 6.8 616 10-300 Iwate, Japan 2008 6.9 367 5-280 El Mayor-Cucapah, CA 2010 7.2 238 11-240 Darfield, New Zealand 2010 7 114 1-540 Christchurch, New Zealand 2011 6.1 104 2-440 Wenchuan, China 2008 7.9 263 1-1500 L'Aquila, Italy 2009 6.3 48 5-230
*subset of added events
Examples of data added to NGA-West2 database
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Comparison of NGA-West1 & NGA-West2 databases
Data Set # EQs # Rec Sa Type Damping
Periods (sec)
NGA-West1 173 3,551 AR, GMRotI50 5% 0.01 - 10 NGA- West2 610 19,400 AR, RotDnn 0.5-30% 0.01 - 20
AR= As-recorded
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RotDnn definition n At each period, rotate horiz. components,
n RotD50 = 50 percentile,
n RotD100 = max,
n RotD00 = min
n Motivation: Users can use the maximum rotated motion
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Why did we add small magnitude data? n Motivation:
v NGA-West1 models over-predicted motions for small magnitude
v In the future, we can analyze multiple events recorded at same site to characterize the site variability (single-station Sigma)
v In the regions that have mainly small magnitude data, they can compare NGA with their data
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Magnitude scaling at small magnitude
4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5Moment Magnitude
Acc
eler
atio
n (g
)10-4
10-3
10-2
10-1
100SA(1.0s)
4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5Moment Magnitude
Acc
eler
atio
n (g
)
10-3
10-2
10-1
100PGA
Rrup = 0 kmRrup = 10 kmRrup = 50 kmRrup = 200 km
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Update NGA GMPEs for horizontal motion
n Using the latest database n Using supporting research on:
n Directivity of ground motion
n HW/FW model using simulations data
n Update of nonlinear soil response n New classification of “main shock” vs
“aftershocks” n …
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n NGA-West1 models predicted only horizontal ground motions
n Recorded data have shown that vertical ground motion can be large at the sites close to active faults
Develop GMPEs for vertical component
0.01 0.1 1 10Period (sec)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
V / H
R
ati
o
rseis= 3 km
rseis=10km
rseis=20km
Strike slip, Firm soil, M=7.5
2 / 3
Do not use 2/3 to scale horizontal motion to get
vertical
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Damping scaling of response spectra
Ref: Rezaeian et al. (2012)
n Scale GMPEs for damping other than 5%:
0.5% to 30%
10-2 10-1 100 101
10-2
10-1
100
Period, s
Spec
tral A
ccel
erat
ion
M=7 R=10km
gmean of five GMPE0.5%1%2%3%5%7%10%15%20%25%30%
n Damping scaling model is final; PEER report already published
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n NGA-West1 models did not explicitly include directivity of ground motion
n Five directivity models have been developed n Wide-band and
narrow-band models
n Effects of directivity will be included in NGA-West2 GMPEs
-117 -116.5 -116
Longitude
34
34.5
35
Latit
ude
Epicenter
Lucerne Valley 136 cm/sec
Forward directivity region
Backward directivity region
Rupturepropagation
Joshua Tree 43 cm/sec
1992 Landers, CA, EQ
Directivity
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Directionality (Polarization)
n NGA models are for “geometric mean” horizontal components
n Develop max and min rotated spectra, as a function of mag, distance,…
n Examine relationship of max/min spectra with RotD50 (50 percentile) spectra
Ref: Boore (2010)
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Epistemic uncertainty model
q Develop epistemic uncertainty model for NGA-West2
q Will need final GMPEs q Will be carried out by January 31,
2013
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Site Response
n NGA-West1 site amplification factors are inconsistent with NEHRP site amplification factors
n Goal: To make NEHRP and NGA site amplifications consistent
n Propose changes in NEHRP factors
n This is both scientific and consensus-building task
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NGA-West2 Status n Some tasks have already been completed
n Databases, damping scaling, directivity, directionality, site response
n Draft final reports are being reviewed internally and externally
n Draft of GMPEs for horizontal components are ready for review to obtain:
n Feedback from the USGS National Hazard Maps, internal and external reviewers
n Feedback from the community (this workshop)
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NGA-West2 Status (cont’d)
n Draft final reports on horizontal and vertical GMPEs and epistemic uncertainty will be sent to the sponsors and reviewers by January 31, 2012
n Obtain comments on draft report: February 28, 2013
n Finalize all reports for public release: April 15, 2013
n Flatfiles of database used by the NGA-West2 GMPE developers will be posted at PEER web site
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Purpose of Today Workshop
n To inform the community about our preliminary findings and models
n Obtain feedback
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n Technical Coordination Committee:
n Abrahamson, Bozorgnia, Campbell
n External reviewers and oversight committee:
n Chris Wills, Mark Petersen, John Anderson, Roger Borcherdt, Silvia Mazzoni, Farzad Naeim
n Funding agencies representatives:
n Badie Rowshandel & Tom Shantz
Many people have been involved in NGA-West2
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n Database: Ancheta, Darragh, Silva, Chiou, Stewart, Seyhan, Graves, Wooddell, Katke, Boore, Kishida, + NGA developers
n GMPEs: Abrahamson, Silva, Campbell, Bozorgnia, Chiou, Youngs, Boore, Atkinson, Stewart, Seyhan, Idriss
n Damping: Rezaeian, Bozorgnia, Idriss, Abrahamson, Campbell, Silva & GMPE developers
n Vertical: GMPE developers n Directivity: Spudich, Chiou, Baker, Shahi,
Rowshandel, Watson-Lamprey & GMPE developers n Directionality: Baker, Shahi, & directivity group n Epistemic Uncertainty: Youngs, Al Atik n Site Response: Stewart, Seyhan, & working group
Many people have been involved in NGA-West2 (cont’d)
Putting together pieces of a complicated puzzle through
a large coordinated multidisciplinary Team Work
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n Database: Ancheta, Darragh, Silva, Chiou, Stewart, Seyhan, Graves, Wooddell, Katke, Boore, Kishida, + NGA developers
n GMPEs: Abrahamson, Silva, Campbell, Bozorgnia, Chiou, Youngs, Boore, Atkinson, Stewart, Seyhan, Idriss
n Damping: Rezaeian, Bozorgnia, Idriss, Abrahamson, Campbell, Silva & GMPE developers
n Vertical: GMPE developers n Directivity: Spudich, Chiou, Baker, Shahi,
Rowshandel, Watson-Lamprey & GMPE developers n Directionality: Baker, Shahi, & directivity group n Epistemic Uncertainty: Youngs, Al Atik n Site Response: Stewart, Seyhan, & working group
Many people have been involved in NGA-West2 (cont’d)
NGA Participants: Thank you for your hard
work, dedication, and world-class contributions
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THANK YOU for YOUR ATTENTION!
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Agenda n 8:30 – 9:00 Overview of NGA-West2 Project (Yousef Bozorgnia) n 9:00 - 9:30 NGA-West2 Database (Tim Ancheta) n 9:30 - 10:15 Site Database & NEHRP Site Factors (Jon Stewart)
n 10:15 - 10:30 Break
n 10:30 – 11:00 Damping Scaling Models (Sanaz Rezaeian) n 11:00 -11:45 Directivity Models (Paul Spudich) n 11:45 - 12:15 Directionality of Ground Motion (Jack Baker)
n 12:15 - 1:00 Lunch
1:00 - 1:15 Nonlinear Site Response Model (Ronnie Kamai) n 1:15 - 1:30 New hanging Wall Model (Jennifer Donahue) n 1:30 – 1:45 Classification of “Main Shock” / “Aftershock” (Katie Wooddell) n 1:45 – 2:15 Abrahamson-Silva Updated GMPE (Norm Abrahamson) n 2:15 - 2:45 Boore-Atkinson-Seyhan-Stewart GMPE (Boore, Stewart) n 2:45 - 3:15 Campbell-Bozorgnia Updated GMPE (Ken Campbell)
n 3:15 - 3:30 Break
n 3:30 – 4:00 Chiou-Youngs Updated GMPE (Brian Chiou) n 4:00 - 4:30 Idriss Updated GMPE (I.M. Idriss) n 4:30 - 5:00 Comparison of GMPEs (Norm Abrahamson/Nick Gregor) n 5:00 - 5:30 Final Discussions and Concluding Remarks (Yousef Bozorgnia, All) n 5:30 Adjourn
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NGA-West2
Final Discussions