ngee-arm-asr interactions...ngee-arctic: “....improving climate model predictions through advanced...
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NGEE-ARM-ASR Interactions Focus on Coupled-System Processes Matthew Shupe, Univ. of Colorado / NOAA
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Shared Objectives • NGEE-Arctic: “....improving climate model predictions through
advanced understanding of coupled processes in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems.”
• ARM: “….improve the understanding and representation, in climate and earth system models, of clouds and aerosols as well as their interactions and coupling with the Earth’s surface.”
• ASR: “Quantify the interactions among aerosols, clouds, precipitation, radiation, dynamics, and thermodynamics to improve fundamental process-level understanding, with the ultimate goal to reduce the uncertainty in global and regional climate simulations and projections.”
Coupled system understanding & predictive capabilities
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Large-scale Feedbacks/Interactions
Energy fluxes Water fluxes Gas fluxes
Land surface / sub-surface Locally-forced variability Carbon reservoir Change in moisture content Change in permafrost
Energy fluxes Water fluxes Gas fluxes
Atmosphere Large-scale & Locally-forced variability Net transport of moisture / heat into Arctic Gases impact large scale energy budget
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Atmosphere Land Clouds decrease net radiative flux
Upper soil T slightly cools
Soil warming in daily pulses
Snow melt decreasing albedo?
Tiksi
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The surface energy budget (and net surface atmospheric heat flux) determine the flow of energy into the surface and sub-surface.
These heat fluxes impact soil temperature and moisture, and can have implications for permafrost
Conclusion: Representing sub-surface processes requires characterizing and representing atmospheric energy fluxes.
Atmosphere Land Barrow
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Atmosphere Land Liquid clouds play a key role. Radiatively warm surface
except in summer (JJAS) Turbulent flux response
partially offsets radiative forcing
Clouds cool surface (total atmos flux) only in June/July.
Clouds weakly warm soil year round except for significant cooling in June/July.
Clouds dampen the annual cycle.
Barrow
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Land Atmosphere
Aas et al. 2015
Large latent heat flux errors
(underestimates)
Poorly modeled soil moisture
(too dry)
Ny-Alesund
B = SH/LH
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Understanding Coupled System • Atmospheric fluxes impact timing, rate, and extent of soil
temperature changes (and impact soil moisture). • Land surface impacts turbulent heat fluxes into the
atmosphere, affecting low level mixing and vertical fluxes of moisture, energy, etc.
• Terrestrial models often forced by atmospheric parameters from reanalyses, which struggle to represent Arctic BL, cloud, and surface fluxes.
• Coupled system allows interactions, understanding of co-variability, and eventually the improved ability to model how the atmosphere-terrestrial system evolves together
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Thoughts for moving forward: • Study the links: Atmos. processes Surface Energy Fluxes Soil processes Can we obtain system closure? • How are precipitation and soil moisture processes related?
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Thoughts for moving forward: • Heterogeneity:
• What is a representative land/surface type? Distribution? • How do processes depend on these differences? • Impact of land heterogeneity on turbulent heat fluxes • Characterizing heterogeneity in land type/fluxes (UAS?) • Impact of atmospheric heterogeneity
• Possibilities at Oliktok Point. (UAS) • Coupled atmosphere-land modeling???
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Opportunities Building PanArctic Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Collaboration International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA)
Starkweather, Euskirchen, Boike , Uttal, Lesins, Grachev, and IASOA A-S Exchange WG