nielsen business barometer w3 english

8/6/2019 Nielsen Business Barometer W3 English

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Wave 31st Half 2010


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1st Half 2010

Research Design

Methodology

Fieldwork

Online interviewing

Senior leaders of manufacturers & suppliers in Vietnam

Target Respondents

Sample SizeTotal sample N=57

March to May 2010


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1st Half 2010

Executive Insights Senior business leaders predict dynamic

changes within Vietnam Moving from a premiumization trend to

promotional-junkie behavior within 2009 Now a buy Vietnam products trend is occurring

TVC is still the dominant media platform, but the

internet could be the next major investment frommanufacturers

The multiple concerns of both Vietnameseconsumer & business leader are very much insync

Mainly cost- or price-related


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1st Half 2010

Setting the Scene


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1st Half 2010

Key Issues Faced By You & Your Industry Peers1. External Economic and Social impacts2. Consumer Behavior3. Corporate strategic direction & plans


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1st Half 2010

118 106 97 85109 101

2007 1st Half'08

2nd Half'08

1st Half'09

2nd Half'09

1st Half'10

12pt

9pt

12pt

8pt

24pt

Growth in Vietnam has stabilized ~ but is still there to capture.

Sources: Wage growth , 2007 Economic Intelligence Unit , 2008-9 HRBS Asia-Pacific Pay Increase Guide 2009

(Survey Period: Jan 6 to Feb 6, 2009); 2010E by Vietnam government ; Consumer Confidence, Nielsen GlobalOnline Survey 2007-10; GDP Growth ; Inflation, 2006-2007 data from IMF; And CIEC: 2008-2010 IMA AsiaBrief December 2010; Asia Development Bank Outlook 2010 , 2010E by Vietnam government; ; FMCGGrowth, Nielsen; Vietnam Retail Audit.

GDP Growth

+6.2%2008

+5.3%2009

+ 8.5%2007 +8.5%2007

+23%2008

Inflation

+6.9%2009

+11.22007

+42008

+102009

Wage GrowthUnemployment5.1%2007

4.3 %2008

2.9 %2009

FMCG Volume Growth

+5.5%2010E +10%2010E

Consumer Confidence


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What are the top concerns of senior leaders?

Source: Nielsen Business Barometer

Base: All respondents

8) Foreign InvestmentSlowdown (12%)

Q12: Which of the following issues concern you in terms of the impact theymay have on your business? Rank the top three (3) issues that concernyou where 1=most concerned, 2= second most concern and so on.

7) Wage Growth (13%)

6) Labor force skillshortage (18%)

5) Inflation (24%)

4) Low GDP Growth (33%)

3) Price increases (37%)

2) Global EconomicCrisis (38%)

1) Competitive pressure / activity / growth (40%)

2009 2 nd

half 2009 1st

half 1) Competitive pressure /

activity / growth (68%)

2) Ability to pass onprice increase (45%)

3) Inflation (42%)

4) Low GDP growth (31%)


6) Labor forceskill shortage (24%)

7) Petrol prices (16%)

8) Others (Exchangerate, policies) (13%)

2010 1 st half

1st Half 2010

3) Inflation (56%)


4) Labor force/ skill shortage (29%)

1) Competitive pressure/ activity / growth (68%)

2) Ability to pass onprice increase (59%)

8) Others (Government regs,currency depreciation (10%)

6) Wages growth (12%)

5) Petrol prices (22%)


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1st Half 2010

How do these concerns compare with consumers concerns?

Source: Nielsen Business Barometer & Nielsen Omnibus

Which of the following issues concern you in terms of the impact they may have on your business? Rank thetop three issues that concern you where 1=most concern, 2=second most concern, etc...

Top 5 supplier / mfr concerns

1) Competitive pressure / activity / growth

2) Ability to pass on price increase

3) Inflation

4) Labor force / skill shortage

5) Petrol prices

Top 5 consumer concerns

1) Health

2) Increasing food prices

3) Increasing utility bills(gas, electricity, water)

4) Job security

5) Increasing fuel / petrol prices

$


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1st Half 2010

Business Conditions


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1st Half 2010

So far in 2010, manufacturers have mostly performed at least onparity with their targets. Significantly stronger than 2 nd half of2009 ~ 70% vs. 86%.

4 2

2512

30

40

26

14

23

23

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2nd half 2010 1st half

Significantly better

Somewhat better

On par with target

Somewhat worse than target

Significantly worse than target

Business performance compared to overall target

Q5: Looking back at the first few months of the year, how well do you think your business hasbeen doing compared to your overall targets?


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1st Half 2010

Business conditions in Vietnam have been improving well since 1year ago.

113 2

49

24

9

15

30

30

21

54

4 5

41

3

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 1st half 2009 2nd half 2010 1st half

Improved significantly

Improved somewhat

Remained the same

Deteriorated somewhat

Deteriorated significantly

Business Conditions in Vietnam (Now vs Year Ago)

Q6a: Compared to the same time last year, do you think business conditions in Vietnamhave improved or deteriorated?


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1st Half 2010

Although, business conditions in own industry are perceived tobe far more stable.

4 3

29 30

19

32 33

39

2332

12 11

28

7

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



Improved somewhat

Remained the same



Business Conditions in your industry (Now vs Year Ago)

Q6b: Compared to the same time last year, do you think business conditions in your industryhave improved or deteriorated?


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1st Half 2010

Looking ahead, senior leaders believe that both Vietnam & ownindustry business conditions will improve, but not as strongly asthe 2 nd half 2009 peak.

71 4 1 2

31

39

23

7

16

28

20

25

35

37

40

32

58

33

46

37

3 5 8 115

72

4

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 1st half 2009 2nd half 2010 1st half 2009 1st half 2009 2nd half 2010 1st half


Improved somewhat

Remained the same



Vietnam Your Industry

Q7, Q8: Over the next 6 to 12 months, do you believe that business conditions in Vietnam& your industry are more likely to improve or deteriorate?


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1st Half 2010



15/25

1st Half 2010

Dynamic changes in Vietnam are afoot. After premium trade-up& promotional-junkies, a purchase Vietnamese trend will occur.

5

23

36

39

51

57

54

Not buy some 'non-essentials'

Trade down tocheaper products

Purchase more onpromotion

Buy bigger packsto save money

Buy smaller packsof the same

products

Change channel tosave money

Trade up to morepremium/indulgent

products

Q16: Do you anticipate that Vietnamese consumers will change their purchasingbehaviour next 6 to 12 months?

16

16

21

24

27

48

31


products


Buy less / smallerpacks of the same

products





2009 2 nd half 2009 1 st half

22

22

22

37

41

49

44



products





Purchase morelocal/ Vietnamese

brands

2010 1 st half


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1st Half 2010

Beverages, health & beauty, and HH products are the more likelycategories to be impacted the most.

Q17: Which industry do you think will be impacted the most?

4

22

22

28

35

39

43

44

35

OTHERS

Tobaccoproducts

Dry grocery

Frozen food

Beverages

Dairy

Householdproducts

Confectionery

Health & beauty

7

12

14

15

37

37

44

51

37

OTHERS

Dry grocery

Dairy

Tobaccoproducts

Frozen food

Beverages

Householdproducts

Confectionery

Health & beauty

2009 2 nd half 2009 1 st half 2010 1 st half

3

14

19

22

28

44

44

50

36

OTHERS

Dry grocery

Frozen food

Dairy

Tobaccoproducts

Confectionery

Householdproducts

Health & beauty

Beverages


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1st Half 2010



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1st Half 2010

Tracked vs. 1 year ago, the workforce numbers are expected toincrease to a good degree; which has a knock-on effect upon themanufacturers current concern of skilled labor shortage.

1 211

2

53

30

31

4

46

11

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 1st Half 2010 1st Half

Increase significantly (5)

Increase somewhat (4)

Remain the same (3)

Reduce somewhat (2)

Reduce significantly (1)

Over the next 6 to 12 months, how do you anticipate your company'swork force numbers to change?


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1st Half 2010

Nearly 9 out of 10 senior leaders confirm they currently conductsome social responsibility initiative ~ consumer health & charity.Could be a key PR area for further focus?

Q20: Does your company currently have any initiatives relating to social responsibilities suchas: the environment, local charities, education...?Q21: Which social responsibilities initiatives does your company prioritize?

89

Yes

%

029

39

45

53

63

67

Top 3 Box Priority

Consumer health benefits

Charity

Education

Energy saving

Environmentally- friendly packaging

Control or reduce carbon-dioxideemission

Wildlife protection


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1st Half 2010

Rural Vietnam remains on the radar as a key area for furthergrowth.

4 2

32

25 26

51

53

13 18

58

17

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Increase significantly

Increase somewhat

Neither increase nor decrease

Decrease somewhat

Decrease significantly

Q22: In the next 12 18 months, to what extent will you look to rural Vietnam areas to driveyour company growth?


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1st Half 2010

2010 seems to be the year where manufacturers look for morecontribution from MT.

18 13

35

23

25

38

13

8 8

17

Now End of '09

Less than 5% (2.5) 5% - less than 10% (7.5)

10% - less than 20% (15) 20% - less than 30% (25)

30% or greater (35)

Mean score 13% 14.9% 13.8% 14.8% 13.3% 16.4%

Modern Trade Contribution to Sales Revenue

Q18: How important is the modern trade to your business today (as a % of your businesss revenue)?Q19: What do you expect MT (as a % of your revenue) to be worth by the end of the year?

26 20

2530

23 21

13

13 15

15

Now End of '09

2009 2 nd half 2009 1 st half

2217

1215

46

29

15

210

27

Now End of '10

2010 1 st half


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1st Half 2010

Growth Expectations


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1st Half 2010

2010 GDP growth expectation is just under 6%, whereas ownindustry growth expectation is double this level

Q9: What do you think GDP growth rate will be for the next 12 months?Q10: What do you think your industry growth rate will be for the next 12 months?

5.0

10.2

11.3

5.7

13.6

4.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Est. Next 12 months GDP growth rate All industry est growth rate

%

2010 1 st half 2009 1 st half 2009 2 nd half


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1st Half 2010

..with more senior leaders claiming their projected companygrowth rate in 2010 to be even stronger.

4 5

17 14

1712

20

17

2131

23

11

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2nd half 2010 1st half

25%+

21% - 25%

16% - 20%

11% - 15%

6% - 10%

Less than 5%

Q11: What do you think your company growth rate will be for the next 12 months?


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1st Half 2010Confidential & Proprietary Copyright 2007 The Nielsen Company

Thank youFor any questions, please contact:Tam NguyenManager, Marketing [email protected]

nielsen business barometer w3 english

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