nigerian agr transformation agenda

53
Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | Unlocking the Potential of Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: Nigeria‟s Transformation Agenda for Agriculture Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, PhD (Purdue) Honourable Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Presented at the Symposium on „Growing food: New places, new technologies‟ Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies April 17 th 2012 0

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Page 1: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Unlocking the Potential of Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa:

Nigeria‟s Transformation Agenda for Agriculture

Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, PhD (Purdue)

Honourable Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development

Presented at the Symposium on „Growing food: New places, new technologies‟

Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies

April 17th 2012

0

Page 2: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Low Agricultural Productivity is at the heart of

food insecurity in Africa

Source: FAOSTAT (2001)

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2010…

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

China S.Asia SS Africa

C

ere

al Y

ield

s t/

ha

Page 3: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Page 4: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Netherlands Vietnam

Japan UK

China France Brazil

USA India

South Africa Cuba Benin

Malawi Ethiopia

Mali Burkina Faso

Nigeria Tanzania

Mozambique Guinea Ghana

Uganda kg/ha

Source: FAOSTAT, July 2003; Norman Borlaug, 2004

0 100 200 300 400

Fertilizer use

per ha in

sub-Saharan

Africa is the

lowest in the

world

500 600

Page 5: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

1. Focus was on wheat and rice, which were not major crops

in Africa

2. Africa has a more diverse agro-ecological environment

than Asia

3. While Asia has homogenous irrigated areas, Africa is

dominated by rain-fed agricultural

4. Weak political will in Africa compared to Asia

5. African countries had weaker infrastructure, policies and

institutions to support farmers

Why the green revolution bypassed Africa

Page 6: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

New Rice for Africa (NERICA) Africa’s rice imports has risen from 8.5 Billion USD in 1986 to close to

150 Billion USD per year

in 1980-2000 over 200 new varieties of rice were released and

generated annual income of US$ 375-850 Million

High Yielding Cassava Varieties Pro Vitamin A Cassava in Nigeria

To save 1.5 Billion USD in GDP loss to vitamin and mineral deficiencies

Orange Flesh Sweet Potato

Water Efficient Maize for Africa

Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa 20-30% yield increase, Yield stability

Technologies now exist to allow Africa to feed itself

Page 7: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

– Biotechnology offers great potential to help feed Africa

– Bt-cotton is growing in West Africa and South Africa

– Successful development and testing of GM maize in Kenya and South Africa,

and GM bananas in Uganda, to address pest and disease complexes

– Challenges that must be overcome for gene revolution

Conventional breeding still holds the best option

Public research institutions are dominant, not private research institutions

Unlike in green revolution in Asia, seeds from gene revolution are

commercial, not public goods (farmers need to be able to reuse seeds)

Limited public-private partnerships for sharing proprietary technologies for

crops of importance for the (Africa Agricultural Technology Foundation)

Weak biosafety regulatory framework in many countries

Environmental and consumer safety issues

The new gene revolution should not bypass Africa

Page 8: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

“We must feed ourselves.

I will not suffer the indignity

of begging for food”

Late Dr Bingu wa Mutharika

President of Malawi

African leaders are combining political will with

technologies, markets and institutional support for

farmers

Page 9: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Tipping Point on Hunger in Africa:

Malawi achieves food self sufficiency

2005/06: $50 Million subsidy with Government distribution

2006/07: $60 Million “smart subsidy”

Maize green revolution:

400,000 MT surplus in 2005/06

900,000 MT surplus in 2007

Malawi exported 400,000 MT of

maize to Zimbabwe

Malawi donated 10,000 MT of maize to Lesotho and Swaziland

Page 10: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

African Governments’ decided to devote 10% of National

Budget for Agriculture: CAADP Maputo Declaration

Page 11: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 10

Page 12: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Nigeria is an untapped potential agricultural power house

Land

Water

Labor

Large Internal Markets

Agricultural

Potential

84 Million Ha of Arable

Land; 40% utilization

279 Billion Cubic

Meters of Surface

Water

Untapped irrigation

potential with 3 of

the 8 major river

systems in Africa.

110 Million Youth in the

work force in 2020

Low wages for

agricultural

intensification

165 Million people,

projected to grow

to 470 Million by

2050

11

Page 13: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Nigeria's lost glory in the world trade of groundnuts

Our former glory in the global trade of

groundnut – Circa 1961

Share of world‟s shelled groundnut exports in 1961*

Measure: % of world trade

Others

Nigeria‟s dominance was eclipsed by China, USA and Argentina

Nigeria

Nigeria‟s export volumes compared to global export volumes for shelled groundnut

1961 – 2008*

Measure: Thousands of metric tons

16%

0%

Nigeria‟s Exports Global Exports

Global market-share trend of shelled groundnut among key producers**

Measure: Percent of global trade of shelled Groundnut

USA

Nigeria

China

Our competitors maintained their

dominance due to strong marketing

organizations that linked the farmers to

markets and hence were able to meet

new strict sanitary and phytosanitary

requirements, particularly for Aflatoxin,

a serious food toxin.

New technologies, Aflasafe, have been

developed in Nigeria by IITA to enable

Nigeria meet the new strict sanitary and

phytosanitary requirements.

Argentina

2008

12

*FAO ** Doreo Analysis, FAO

Page 14: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Nigeria's lost glory in the world trade of palm oil

Our former glory in global trade of palm oil

– Circa 1961

Share of world‟s palm oil exports in 1961*

Measure: % of world trade

Others

Nigeria‟s dominance was eclipsed by Indonesia and Malaysia

Nigeria

Nigeria‟s export volumes compared to global export volumes 1961 – 2008**

Measure: Thousands of metric tons

4%

9%

Nigeria‟s Exports Global Exports

Global market-share trend of palm oil among key producers**

Measure: Percent of global trade of palm oil

Malaysia

Nigeria

Indonesia

While Nigeria declined rapidly, the

industry grew even faster to over 33

Million metric tons.

Our competitors continued to invest in

their agricultural sector R&D to develop

higher yielding varieties and remain

competitive

Malaysia now controls 40% of the

world trade of Oil Palm products valued

at over US$18 Billion

2008

13

*FAO ** Doreo Analysis, FAO

Page 15: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Nigeria's stagnation in the world trade of cocoa

Our former glory in global trade of cocoa –

Circa 1961

Share of world‟s cocoa exports in 1961*

Measure: % of world trade

Others

Nigeria‟s dominance was eclipsed by Indonesia and Cote d„Ivoire

Nigeria

Nigeria‟s export volumes 1961 – 2008*

Measure: Thousands of metric tons

0.4%

Nigeria‟s exports

Global market-share trend of cocoa among key producers***

Measure: Percent of global trade of cocoa

Cote

d„Ivoire

Nigeria

Ghana

While Nigeria‟s production stagnated,

the industry grew to over 2.7 Million MT.

Our competitors maintained their

dominance due to strong marketing

organizations

Our stagnation has meant we have

been unable to benefit fully from rapidly

rising global prices.

Indonesia

2008

*FAO ** Index Mundi *** Doreo Analysis, FAO

Cocoa Bean Price **

Measure : US$ per metric ton

2011 2005 2009 2001 2003 2007

14

Page 16: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Nigeria's lost glory in the world trade of cotton

Our former position in global trade of

cotton – Circa 1961

Share of the world‟s cotton exports in 1961*

Measure: % of world trade

Others

Nigeria‟s dominance was eclipsed by Mali and Burkina Faso

Nigeria

Nigeria‟s export volumes compared to global export volumes 1961 – 2008*

Measure: Thousands of metric tons

2% 1%

Nigeria‟s exports Global exports

Global market-share trend of Cotton among key West African producers **

Measure: Percent of global trade of Cotton

Mali

Nigeria

Burkina

Faso

In 1961, Nigeria was the major West

African cotton exporter , however, its

prominence has been eclipsed by Mali

and Burkina Faso.

Our competitors maintained their

dominance due to strong marketing

organizations, that linked the farmers to

markets and provided support in the

form of improved planting materials and

fertilizer and the ability to meet quality

standards.

2008

15

*FAO **Doreo Analysis, FAO

Page 17: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Need to raise agricultural productivity in Nigeria

Comparison of Nigeria‟s yields across all crops versus

other leading agricultural countries

16

Index of crop yields relative to Nigeria‟s yields in 1961*

Measure: Relative growth in crop yields

Malaysia

Thailand

Annual growth rates

1961 – 2008

3%

Nigeria

1961 2008 1980

Yield per Hectare is the driver of

agricultural competitiveness.

Nigeria's yield per hectare is 20% to

50% of that obtained in similar

developing countries.

Nigeria has one of the lowest usage

rates of agricultural inputs.

Nigeria ranks at the bottom on

agricultural indices Mechanization Intensity: 10 tractors

per 1000 Ha compared to Indonesia

with 241 tractors per 1000 Ha

Irrigation: 0.8% of arable land

irrigated compared to Thailand‟s 28%

of arable land irrigated

Indonesia

Brazil

2%

2.3%

1.6%

1.2%

1990 2000 1970

Nigeria‟s low fertilizer utilization**

Measure: Kg per hectare

Nigeria‟s low utilization of improved

seeds**

Measure: Percent of farmers

* Doreo‟s Analysis, FAO **IFDC

Indonesia lowest in 1961

Page 18: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 17

Nigeria Imports over USD$11 Billion in wheat, rice, sugar and fish every year

Sugar

Fish

Wheat

World‟s largest importer

of US hard red and

white winter Wheat

Nigeria‟s top 4 food imports *

Measure: Annual food imports in billions of naira

Nigeria‟s imports

Nigeria‟s food imports are growing at an

unsustainable rate of 11% per annum.

Relying on the import of expensive food on

global markets fuels domestic inflation.

Excessive imports putting high pressure on

the Naira and hurting the economy

Nigeria is importing what it can produce in

abundance.

Import dependency is hurting Nigerian

farmers, displacing local production and

creating rising unemployment.

Import dependency is not acceptable, nor

sustainable fiscally, economically or politically.

Key takeaways

*CBN

Rice

World‟s #2 Importer

Page 19: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 18

Agricultural Transformation Action Plan Turning Nigeria from a food importing country to

a self-sufficient and food exporting country

Do

re

o

Page 20: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Significant Growth in Non-oil Exports and Agriculture

Dominates Non-Oil Sector Growth Agriculture consistently 75% of Non Oil Exports

Value of agriculture and other non-oil exports (N Bn)

Source: CBN, FBN Cpital

100150 190 210

2953550

5560

100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Agriculture Sector

Other Non Oil Sectors

19

Page 21: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 20

69

52

36

256

99

Potential

2030

Shift to

Higher

Value

Crops

1

Increased

Yield

Increased

Acreage

2010

+159%

Value of Agricultural Sector, constant 2010 US $

(Billions of dollars)

44% 33% 23%

Share of

growth,

%

Current Additional potential

Agriculture‟s potential to grow the economy

Page 22: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Nigeria must become an agriculturally

industrialized economy

We want to modernize the agricultural

sector, raise agricultural productivity,

develop modern food supply chains,

accelerate food processing and value

addition, and achieve economies of scale

in food production and supply to meet the

food needs of Africa's largest population.

While Nigeria is the largest food market,

we are import dependent, so unable to

create jobs, drive markets for locally

produced crops. We have decided to end

this.

Now our goal is "process what we

produce, promote locally produced

foods, make our farmers prosperous

and create jobs". We want prosperity to

grow in our rural areas, as our food

supply chains grow, for local, regional and

export markets.

Key drivers for our transformation

Rapid

Urbanization

Rising

Population

Growth in

Food Demand

Need

to Create Jobs

Post Harvest

Losses

The percentage of the population in

Urban Areas has doubled in 40 years

from 24% to 49%

The Nigerian population has doubled in

the last 30 years from 80 Million in

1982 to 165 Million in 2012, and is

projected to reach 450 Million by 2050

Increased population coupled with

increased meat and fats consumption

driving up food demand.

Over 4 million youths entering the

workforce every year.

50% for vegetables and fruits,

30% for tubers and roots

20% for grains

Page 23: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Our Vision: Grow Nigeria‟s agricultural sector

22

“To make Nigeria an agriculturally industrialized economy”

What we have stopped doing

× Treating agriculture as a development project

× Isolated projects that do not clearly grow the sector in a clear and

measurable way.

× Big government crowding out the private sector

Page 24: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Our Vision: Grow Nigeria‟s agricultural sector

23

“To make Nigeria an agriculturally industrialized economy”

What we have started doing!

Treating agriculture as a business

Integrating food production, storage, food processing and industrial manufacturing by value

chains („farm to fork‟)

Focusing on value chains where Nigeria has comparative advantage

Using agriculture to create jobs, wealth and ensure food security

Investment-driven strategic partnerships with the private sector

Investment drives to unlock potential of our States in agriculture (joint drives with State

Governors)

Page 25: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 24

New policies, institutions and financing

structures to drive sector growth:

1. Deregulation of seed and fertilizer sectors

2. Marketing reforms to structure markets

3. Innovative financing for agriculture

4. New agricultural investment framework

Do

re

o

Page 26: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Policy reform: Government gets out of direct fertilizer procurement and

distribution and leverages mobile phones to target farmers with farm inputs

Government no longer buys and sells fertilizers and

seeds

Private sector now sell fertilizers and seeds directly to

farmers

Government provides 50% support for seeds & fertilizers

Vouchers and Electronic-Wallets (mobile phones) are

being used to better target subsidized inputs to farmers,

with target of reaching 5 million farmers per year

Banking system is being used to finance input supply:

30 Billion Naira was financed for 2102, using

guarantees, without spending a single Naira of

government funds

Government has liberalized foundation seed production

to private sector to accelerate growth of the seed sector

Establishing a Nigerian Seed Venture Capital Fund.

Goal is to grow the use of hybrid seeds from 8,000

metric tons to 1,000,000 metric tons, per year

25

Page 27: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Marketing Corporations and Commodity Exchanges are being

established to facilitate marketing for agricultural commodities

Leading global examples of

marketing corporations

26

We are establishing MARKETING

CORPORATIONS to coordinate the

production, investments, grades

and standards, market price

stabilization etc. for all value chains

in Nigeria

Marketing Corporations will be

owned by agricultural value chains,

run as private sector led institutions

Agricultural commodity exchange to

improve market access and price

stabilization for farmers

Page 28: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 27

NIRSAL : ₦75 billion assets to stimulate lending by banks and other financial players

)

De-risk agriculture

finance value chain

Build long-

term capacity

Institutionalise incentives

for agriculture lending NIRSAL

Objective

Goal

Expand bank

lending in

agricultural

value chains

Risk sharing Facility (₦45B)

Insurance Facility (₦4.5B)

Technical assistance

facility (₦9B)

Bank incentive

mechanism (₦15B)

Agricultural bank rating

scheme (₦1.5B)

Shares lending risks with banks (e.g. 50% loss incurred)

Link insurance products to the loan provided by the banks to loan bene-ficiaries

Build the capacity of banks, micro-finance institutions

Build capacity of agricultural value chains

Expand financial inclusion

Targeted incentives that move banks to a long term, strategic

commitment to agricultural lending

Rate banks according to their effective-ness of lending to agriculture.

New Financing Framework for Agriculture by Central Bank of Nigeria will

unlock $ 3 billion in affordable loans from banks for agricultural value chains

Page 29: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Staple Crop Processing Zones (SCPZ) to drive food processing and

manufacturing industries and infrastructure investments

28

Sample Agro Processing Plant Attract private investors into areas of high food

production to set up food processing plants

Reduce current high levels of post-harvest losses,

add value for increased local content of foods

Link farmers in clusters to food manufacturing plants

Create jobs and drive rapid rural economic growth

Staple Crop Processing Zones will receive Fiscal,

Investment and Infrastructure incentives:

Tax breaks on import of agro-processing

equipments

Tax holidays for food processors

Supportive infrastructure: power, roads,

logistics, storage facilities, cargo airports

Develop Agricultural Investment Code for Nigeria

Page 30: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Target commodity value chains for investments by zones

Adamawa

Akwa

Ibom

Bauchi

Bay

e-

lsa

Benue

Borno

Cross

River

Delta

Ebonyi

Edo

Ekiti

Enugu

FCT1)

Gom

be

Imo

Jigawa

Kaduna

Kano

Katsina

Kebbi

Kogi

Kwara

Lagos

Nasarawa

Niger

Ogun Ondo

Osun

Oyo

Plateau

Rivers

Sokoto

Taraba

Yobe Zamfara

Abia

Ana-

mbra

Cotton, Onion, Tomato and Sorghum +

Rice & Cassava + Livestock & Fisheries NW

Cotton, Onion, Tomato and Sorghum +

Rice & Cassava + Livestock & Fisheries NE

Maize and Soybean + Rice & Cassava +

Livestock & Fisheries NC

Oil Palm and Cocoa + Rice & Cassava+

Livestock & Fisheries SW

Oil Palm and Cocoa + Rice & Cassava +

Livestock & Fisheries

SS Oil Palm and Cocoa + Rice & Cassava +

Livestock & Fisheries

SE

Page 31: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 30

Rice Transformation Plan Nigeria to be self sufficient in rice in

four years and become the largest

processor of locally produced rice

in Africa

Do

re

o

Page 32: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Nigeria will replace imported brown rice and finished parboiled rice

with domestic production and milling of rice

31

Annual Brown Rice Supply Options Import vs. Domestic Supply

Measure: Millions Metric Tons

Import Substitution of Parboiled Brown Rice Import Substitution of Parboiled Finished Rice

Imported PB

brown rice

Domestically

produced PB

brown rice

Annual Finished Rice Supply Options Import vs. Domestic Supply

Measure: Millions Metric Tons

Imported

PB Rice

Domestically

Produced PB

Rice

Replace imported brown rice with locally

produced brown rice by 2013.

Replace imported finished rice with locally

produced brown rice by 2015.

Imports will be substituted by stimulating

private sector to invest in rice processing

facilities in areas of high production

Page 33: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Summary of actions to date

32

US investor invests $40 million in rice production and

milling in Taraba State (February 2012)

Expected production of 300,000 MT of rice (15% of

imports) and creation of 15,000 jobs

This will become the largest rice farm in Africa.

Investors rush to produce and mill local rice in Nigeria

Page 34: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Nigeria to have the largest high quality locally produced

rice processing capacity in Africa

33

Investment facility concluded

(February 2012) for 100 large scale

integrated rice processing mills,

with total capacity for 2 million MT

of milled rice, per year

Mills to be owned and operated by

the private sector

Mills to be located across major

rice producing States, with

completion period of 18-24 months

Progress already made

3 new rice processing mills in

Ebonyi, Niger and Kebbi States

with capacity of 90,000 tons of

milled rice have been

completed (February 2012).

Page 35: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

High Quality Nigerian Rice: EBONY Rice, Ebonyi

34

High Quality Nigerian Rice rolled out: EBONY Rice, Ebonyi (March 2012)

Page 36: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 35

Do

re

o

Cassava Transformation Action Plan Nigeria to become the largest processor of cassava in the world

Page 37: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Cassava Value Chains to drive new industrial growth

36

HQCF

High Quality Cassava Flour (HQCF)

Principal market –replacement of wheat flour in bread; others – food industry, adhesive

industry, dextrins.

Starch

Native and modified starches

We have two functional starch mills in Nigeria with a combined capacity of 20,000 tons

(although they currently operate below capacity).

Demand is currently met by corn starch imports.

Chips

Dried Chips

Principal market – to meet internal and external demand of cassava for industrial use.

China‟s demand is expected to exceed 12 mill tons by 2015/16 due to their large ethanol

production.

HFCS

Sweeteners - High Fructose Cassava Syrup (HFCS)

The total sugar requirement for soft drink bottlers and juice manufacturers in Nigeria is

estimated at 200,000 tons of sugar p/a. A replacement of half of this by HFCS from

cassava, would create a 100,000 ton demand.

Ethanol

Fuel Ethanol (E10)

Nigeria has adopted the policy of blending gasoline with 10% ethanol, the E-10 policy.

This represents a potential one billion liter per year market of fuel ethanol and, assuming

50% of feedstock comes from cassava, a raw material requirement of 11 million tons of

dried chips is required.

Page 38: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 37

Mr. President launched 40% High Quality Cassava Flour Bread on 30

November, 2011 and challenged the private sector to commercialize

Page 39: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 38

Private Sector Success: Largest bread baker, UTC, commercializes

cassava flour bread (February 2012) that is cheaper than 100% wheat

flour bread, and encourages local content for jobs

Page 40: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 39

UTC Pastries (30% High Quality Cassava Flour)

Page 41: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

New Investments to make Nigeria the Largest Processor of

Cassava Flour in the World

40

1. Procurement and installation of 18 large scale industrial processing

plants for producing High Quality Cassava Flour (HQCF)

Total capacity of 1.3 Million MT per year

2. Processing plants to be run and owned by the private sector

3. The mills will support a massive structural shift in the flour milling and

bakery industry towards greater use of cassava flour in bread etc.

4. The mills will be supported with massive expansion in cassava

production, using medium and large scale mechanized cassava farms

5. Nigeria will save USD$2 Billion annually, create markets for 1.6 Mil MT

of HQCF, 6.4 Million MT of cassava, and thousands of jobs

Page 42: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 41

Cocoa Transformation Action Plan

Nigeria to become the largest

cocoa producer in the world

Do

re

o

Page 43: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Annual Projected Increase of Supply of Cocoa Beans

Measure: Thousands of Metric Tons

Demand and Supply Side Targets – Cocoa Double Production in Four Years…then grow to over 1 Million Tons

42

Cocoa Supply Side Targets

Globally there is strong and

growing demand for Cocoa,

particularly in Asia, Eastern Europe

and Latin America.

Our strategy: Rapidly grow Nigeria‟s

production of cocoa beans:

Rehabilitating plantations

Raising productivity

Expanding into new areas

Newly released 8 new high

yielding cocoa hybrids

Key Take Aways

Page 44: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 43

New High Yielding Cocoa Hybrids Developed by

Nigerian Scientists Launches a Cocoa Revolution

Page 45: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Released 8 New High Yielding, Fast Maturing Cocoa

Hybrids to revolutionize Cocoa Sector

Increased Yield (Kg/Ha)

Faster Maturing

(Years to Mature)

Page 46: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 45

Establishment of Cocoa Market and

Trade Corporation

Cocoa Investment Fund (across all

16 cocoa producing states)

Financing the replanting of cocoa

plantations with new cocoa hybrids

Target is for Nigeria to hit over one

million Metric tons of production in

less than 10 years

Local processing and value addition

in cocoa industry to drive growth

Do

re

o

Cocoa Transformation Action Plan

Page 47: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 46

Sorghum Transformation Plan Driving economic development in the

North East and North West

Nigeria is the largest producer of

food sorghum in the world

While USA is the largest

producer of feed sorghum in the

world and makes money

globally, Nigeria has not been

able to unlock its market

potential for food sorghum

New High Yielding Sorghum

Hybrids opens up new

opportunities all across the

states in the North of Nigeria.

Goal: Make Nigeria the largest

processor of food sorghum in

the world

Do

re

o

Page 48: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Food manufacturing and industrial use will drive sorghum value chains across

Northern Nigeria

47

Fortified

Foods

Malt

Sorghum will be utilized to produce nutritious fortified foods,

typically blended with soybeans.

Key markets for these fortified foods:

Home Grown School Feeding programs

Turn Nigeria into a major supplier of fortified foods for

food aid purchases for the region by World Food Program

High Quality Sorghum Flour for composite flour with wheat

for bread in Northern Nigeria

Establish large scale sorghum processing plants

Sorghum will be used in producing malt for use in the

beverage industry (non-alcoholic beverages)

Page 49: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Nigerian agriculture offers profitable returns on investments

Crop Modeled Investment

Theme

Start Up Capital

(Fixed Assets)

IRR Payback

Period

Tomato • Tomato paste and related

products plant to replace

imported Chinese paste

• $3.9M for plant with

15,000 tons/annum 20% • ~ 4years

Cassava • Cassava chips processing for

export to Northeast Asia

• $3.5M for plant with

115,000 tons/annum plant 19% • 4.5 years

Cotton • Cotton production and ginning

into lint for export and domestic

markets

• $3.2M for a 30,000 ton

/annum ginnery 20% • 3.5 years

Maize • Processing into animal feed to

serve fast growing livestock

market

• $3.5M for a 50,000

ton/annum plant 30%

• ~3.6 years

Rice • Rice production and milling to

serve large domestic demand

• $6.1M on a 45,000

ton/annum rice mill 33%

• 3.5 years

Soya

Beans

• Processing into animal feeds,

industrial supplements and oil

for domestic markets

• $10M on a 100,000 ton

plant 106%

• 4.5 years

Source: Monitor Analysis; Interviews with Processors; NIRSAL Analysis

Page 50: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 49

Climate change could negatively affect

Nigeria‟s food production

Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity

without carbon fertilization; %

Source: CGD – Global Warming

and Agriculture: New

Country Estimates Show

Developing Countries Face

Declines in Agriculture

Productivity

n.a.

Percent change decrease

<–25

–25 to –15

–15 t –-5

–-5 to 0

0 to 5

Percent change increase

5 to 15

15 t 25

> 25

Page 51: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Policies for climate change adaptation in Nigeria

• Liberalization of the agricultural insurance market to

allow private insurance companies

• Weather-indexed crop insurance

• Strategic grain reserves

• Expanded investment in irrigation

• Development of drought tolerant crops

• Improved access to climate and weather information

Page 52: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |

Agricultural Transformation: Deliverables in four years

51

Jobs 3.5 Million jobs across all agricultural value chains

Wealth US$2 Billion in additional income in the hands of Nigerian farmers

US$2.2 Billion injected into the economy from rice self sufficiency

US$380 Million injected into the economy from substituting 40% of

bread wheat flour with cassava flour

Food

Security

Nigeria to be food secure by increasing production of key food staples

by 20 Million metric tons.

Rice: 2 Million metric tons

Cassava: 17 Million metric tons

Sorghum: 1 Million metric tons

Page 53: Nigerian Agr Transformation agenda

Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 52