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Nigeria’s 2010- 2015 Scorecard A Snapshot of Compelling Leading and Lagging Socio Economic Key Performance Indicators 1 Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

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Page 1: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Nigeria’s 2010- 2015 Scorecard

A Snapshot of Compelling Leading

and Lagging Socio Economic Key

Performance Indicators

1 Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

Page 2: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Engagement Guide

Fundamental Economic KPIs 2010-2015 15

Strategic Oil & Gas Economic KPIs 2010-2015 24

Other Vital Socio Economic KPIs 2010-2015 28

Conclusion & Recommendation 35

Nigerian Socio Economic 2015-2016 Review

3

2

Page 3: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Nigeria’s 2010-2015

Socio Economic Review

using Critical Socio

Economic Key

Performance Indicators

3 Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited

February 2016

Page 4: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

What To Look Out For in this Scorecard

• How has Nigeria fared Socio-Economically in the last 6 years?

• What practical and reliable Key Performance Indicators truly reflect Nigeria’s socio-economic health as against the statistics and indicators that Government publicists fed us with?

• What indicators provide the basis for determining the prognosis for Nigeria’s socio-economic outlook in 2016?

• What Socio-Economic KPIs (that truly is reflective of the socio-economic health of Nigeria)should we be holding the Nigerian Government accountable for ,going forward?

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

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Page 5: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Nigeria’s 2010-2015

Socio Economic

Performance Synopsis

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

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Page 6: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

The Nigerian Economic Trajectory

2010-2016

2010-2013

Nigeria's

Economy was

flying in the

most

dangerous

missile prone

zone!

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Page 7: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

The Nigerian Economic Trajectory

2010-2016

2014

Nigeria's

Economy was

shot at by anti

economic

missiles and it

started a free-

fall!

7

Page 8: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

The Nigerian Economic Trajectory

2010-2015

2015

Nigeria's

Economy

Crashed and

the

wreckage

was hidden

from sight!

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Page 9: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

The Nigerian Economic Trajectory

2010-2015

2016

The wretched and

ruined wreckage

of the Nigerian

economy was

discovered at long

last!

The Casualties

have been

confirmed.

Survivors are

being

ascertained! 9

Page 10: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

We were told by Nigeria’s Economy

Managers that Nigeria was not broke!

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

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Page 11: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Okonjo Iweala on 22nd

Oct, 2014

• “If you look back two years ago, that title:

‘Is Nigeria broke?’ was written in a

newspaper article; it is like people are

trying to force Nigeria into brokerage,”

she said.

• “We are operating an economy that

depends on a product that fluctuates with

oil price and we don’t have the right to

control the price,” she said.

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

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Page 12: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Okonjo Iweala on 22nd

Oct, 2014 Cont’d

• “Just like you have in your own household,

when the quantity diminishes or the price

drops, you remember in 2007 to 2008, the price

of oil dropped from $140 to $38.

• “At that time, nobody asked if the country was

broke because we had saved up $22 billion in

the Excess Crude Account and we were able to

continue spending and to stabilize the

economy.”

• “Does that mean that the country is broke? We

still have resources that we depend on; we still

have the ability to tax.

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

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Page 13: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Okonjo Iweala talking to CNN Richard

Quest on April 17,2015

• “Under this administration, we began the work of truly diversifying the economy and the proof of that is that much of the growth in this past few years that has come to the country has come not from the oil sector but actually from non-oil sectors like agriculture, telecommunications, manufacturing and the creative industries.

• “The fact that oil prices fell by 50 per cent makes it very difficult in terms of cash flow, but Nigeria is asset rich and that is why when people say the country is broke, I say no.

• In economic terms, with the kind of assets we have, we should be able to realise some of them to improve our cash flow but it is true that this will be a very difficult year because of the cash crunch.

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited

February 2016 13

Page 14: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

The real growth of the Nigerian

Economy will be seriously

challenged by the different

Important Socio Economic Key

Performance Indicators

highlighted in this presentation

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

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Page 15: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Fundamental Economic

Key Performance

Indicators 2010-2015

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

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Page 16: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Nigeria’s Economic Growth in The

Last 5 Years

16

GDP at $503bn 2013 Re-based Figures made

Nigeria, Africa’s biggest economy

2014

4%

IMF

2010-2013

Average

5%

2015

5.5%

IMF

2016

4.1%.

IMF

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

The headline had always read that the Nigeria

economy is on the upward growth Curve; Is this

truly the case?

Page 17: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

*Nigeria's External Debt Outstanding

(N' Billion) 2010-2014

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

17

2010

689.84

2011

896.85

2012

1,026.9

2013

1,373.6

2014

1,631.5

*Source: CBN 2014 Statistical Bulletin (2015 stat currently unavailable)

Nigeria’s Outstanding Debt grew by 136% in 2014 over 2010 figures

Page 18: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

*Nigeria’s External Reserve-

18 Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited

February 2016

$43.8bn

As at Dec

31 2012.

$42.8bn

As at

Dec 31

2013 $34.2bn

As at

Dec 31

2014. $29.1bn

As at

Dec 31

2015

*Source: CBN Statistical Bulletin- External Sector Statistics Section D

Page 19: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

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$8.9bn

in 2011

$7bn in

2012

$5.6bn

in 2013 $4.9bn

in 2014.

$3.4bn

in 2015

Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs)

into Nigeria in the last 5 years

Cumulative 62% reduction in FDIs into Nigeria in the last 5years

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

Page 20: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Naira To Dollar Exchange Rate Impact (N)

20

157.33 159.3

159.05 171.4

180.33 188.5

196.9 258.3

2012

2013

2014

2015

BDC- Bureau

de Change

IFEM Inter-bank

Foreign

Exchange

Market

Legend- Please note that the rates are in Naira & from CBN

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

Page 21: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Even when there were improvements

in some Key Socio Economic

Performance Indicators as some of

the following indicators show, they

were still very marginal and could not

be traced to any deliberate policy

action to improve the socio economic

lot of Nigeria

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

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Page 22: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

*Non-Oil Export Contribution to Nigerian Revenue

• Non Oil exports

year on year

average

contribution to

the Total export

between 2010-

2014 was 5%.

• 2014 Non oil

Exports to Oil

Exports ratio

was 166% over

2010 ratio.

Year Non-Oil Export as a % Of

Total Export Revenue

2010 3

2011 3

2012 3

2013 8

2014 8

22

* CBN 2014 Statistical Bulletin- External Sector Statistics(2015 stat currently unavailable)

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

Page 23: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

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Year Total Non

Exports

(US$)Billion

% Y.O.Y Performance

2010 2.3 35

2011 2.765 20

2012 2.561 (7)

2013 2.970 16

2014 2. 714 (9)

* NEPC Source

• The Nigerian Non-Oil

Export sector added to

the national treasury

$12.35bn over a 5 year

period covering 2009-

2013 according to NEPC

official publications.

• Cumulative growth over

the 5 year period 2009-

2013 was 64% and

average year on year

growth was 16%.

• There was growth in

2010, 2011 and 2013

whilst export

performance went

southwards in 2012 and

2014 over the previous

year’s figures.

Nigeria’s Non-Oil Export 5yr Performance*

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

Page 24: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Strategic Oil & Gas

Economic Key

Performance Indicators

2010-2015

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

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Page 25: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Progressive Decline of the Nigerian Oil

Industry 2010-2014

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

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Nigeria Crude

Oil Export

(1,000B/D)

2010-2,464

2011-2,377

2012-2,368

2013-2,193

2014-2,120

Crude Oil Spot

Price($/b)-Bonny

Light

2010-81.07

2011-114.5

2012-113.6

2013-111.36

2014-100.85

2015- N/A 2015-38.91

Active Rigs

2010-35

2011-38

2012-44

2013-50

2014-46

2015-27

Page 26: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Oil Revenue: Nigeria’s Economic

Albatross on the Wane

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*OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin:

Year Oil Revenue in $billion %Increase/decrease over previous year

2010 77.4

2011 93.7 21 2012 95.4 1.8 2013 95.1 -0.3 2014 83.9 -12

Nigeria’s revenue receipts

“witnessed a sharp decline

of more than 67% from

September 2014, when the

receipt was at its peak, to

July 2015 .

Nigeria lost and loses N256bn

($1.3bn) in foreign exchange

inflows every month as a result

of the global fall in the prices of

crude oil, the country’s major

revenue earner.

CBN NNPC

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

Page 27: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Nigeria’s Plummeting Excess Crude

Account

27

$9.43 billion in

December

2007

$11.5 billion in

December

2012

$3.2 billion in

December

2013

$2.5 billion in

December

2014

$2.3billion

December

2015

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

Page 28: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Other Vital Socio

Economic Key

Performance Indicators

2010-2015

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Page 29: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Ease of Doing Business in Nigeria:

2010-2015

Ease of Doing Business is a World Bank/IFC publication Comparing Business Regulations for

Domestic Firms in 189 Economies. IT the regulations that enhance business activity and those

that constrain it. Doing Business presents quantitative indicators on business regulations and

the protection of property rights that can be compared across 189 economies—from

Afghanistan to Zimbabwe

2010

144 /189

2011

137 /183

2012

133 /183 2013

147/189

2014

170 /189

2015

169 /189

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

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It is disappointing to know that it is more difficult doing

Business in Nigeria in 2014-2015 than it was in 2010

Page 30: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Global Competitiveness* Index: 2010-2015

2010-2011

127 out of

142 2012-2013

115 out of

144

2014-2015

127 out of

148

*A country or region is competitive to the extent that firms operating there are able to

compete successfully in the global economy while supporting high and rising wages

and living standards for the average citizen Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited

February 2016 30

Page 31: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Nigerian Stock Exchange Market

Capitalization: 2010-2015

2010

N7.92 trillion

($53.40

billion )

2011

N6.54 trillion

($43.06

billion)

2012

N8.98trillion

($57.77

billion)

2013

N13.23

trillion

($82.80

billion)

2014

N11.49

trillion

($61.72

billion))

2015

N9.851

trillion

($49.46

billion)

(Figure includes equities, ETFs and bonds)- Source NSE

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

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Page 32: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Nigeria’s Consumer Price

Index(Inflation) 2010-2015

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

32

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), measures inflation by measuring the average change over time in prices of

goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living. The NBS is the source for the CPI

2010

13.7%

2011

10.8% 2012

12.0%

2013

8.0% 2014

8.0% 2015

9.6%

An average of 10.4% inflation in Nigeria in the last 6years

Page 33: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

*Nigeria’s Burgeoning

Unemployment Market: 2010-2015

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

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2010

5.1%

2011

6.0%

2012

9.5%

2013

9.1%

2014

7.8%

Q3 2015

9.9%

0.9% over 2010 4.4% over 2010 4.0% over 2010 2.7% over 2010 4.8% over 2010

*Source : Nigeria Bureau of Statistics

Page 34: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Corruption Perceptions Index: 2010-

2015

Corruption Perceptions Index is Transparency International’s publication on the perceived

levels of public sector corruption in 175 countries/territories around the world

2010

134 /178

Score of

2.4/10

2011

143/182:

Score of

2.4 /10

2012

139 /174

Score of

27 /100

2013

144 /175

Score of

25 /100

2014

136 /175

Score of

27 /100

2015

136 /167

Score of

26/100

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

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The lower score suggest high levels of corruption and Nigeria

seemed to have secured a permanent position in the inglorious

hall of fame of the most corrupt nations on the globe

Page 35: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Conclusion & Recommendation

The Tale of Two Siblings:

NNPC & NEPC

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Page 36: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Conclusion

• There is no doubt that Nigeria's current economic woes dated

back to decades of economic mismanagement and particularly

the harvest of the last 6 years of indifferent and reckless

management of Nigeria’s economic resources and

opportunities. The eggs of Nigeria’s prodigal management of

the economy has come home to roost!

• The years ahead are honestly looking scary for Nigerians

for the following reasons; – Due to the harsh and inclement economic climate, there is massive job losses

on the horizon for many middle working class Nigerians, that will cut across all

sectors of the Nigerian economy and which will further swell the ranks of the

unemployed, increasing the population of economically vulnerable Nigerians

and putting intense pressure on Nigeria’s fragile social welfare dynamics.

– The massive indebtedness of Government at all levels will not improve in the

medium term and most States may become insolvent.

– The continuous free fall of the naira against all benchmark foreign currencies

may not abate in the short term.

– Unrelenting dip in crude oil prices may persist in the medium term. Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited

February 2016 36

Page 37: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Conclusion

• The truth must therefore be told that “the Nigerian nation

is at the brink of a socio economic meltdown and

implosion”.

• There is therefore a need for better information dissemination

to Nigerians and more nationally coordinated effort to discuss

the way forward for Nigeria.

• Nigerians deserve to be well informed about the dire

economic situation we have walked ourselves into, after many

years of economic irresponsibility and negligence.

• It is also necessary to start to help define a short, medium and

long term plan to fix the addictive dependence on oil based

resources by all arms and levels of Government in Nigeria,

articulating clear plans to support the development and

growth of the Non- Oil sector at both grassroots and national

levels. Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited

February 2016 37

Page 38: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Recommendation

• Whilst Successive Government in Nigeria in the last 4

decades have unfortunately focused on the Nigerian

National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) as the most

strategic economic and export revenue value creating

agency in Nigeria, there is an imperative to redirect the

focus appropriately to the most important Strategic factor

of Nigerian economic growth in the now and the Future-

Non Oil Export

• The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) should

therefore be given the Presidential, parliamentary and

institutional support to facilitate the constitutional

mandate behind its creation in championing the

sustainable and successful diversification of the Nigerian

economy. the economic rehabilitation of the states and

Nigerians in general Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited

February 2016 38

Page 39: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

Dr. Olayiwola Oladapo

Managing Practice Partner • Organizational Development and Transformation

• Human Capital Strategy and Development

• International Development

• Public Policy Analysis and Public Sector Reform

[email protected]

234-0818-726-3973

39

For a comprehensive Global and

Nigeria 2016 Socio Economic

Outlook and other enquiries kindly

direct them to the Managing

Partner

Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

Page 40: Nigeria's socio economic scorecard  2010-2015

A 2016 Sweat Your Asset

Derivative Limited Publication Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited

February 2016 40