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The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential
Copyright 2016. The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
This presentation is proprietary and confidential and may
not be disclosed in any manner, in whole or in part, to any
third party without the express written consent of NPD.
Ninja Analytics: The Craft of Transforming Big Data into Insight
PRESENTED BY: Sandy Silva, Canadian Fashion and Beauty Industry Analyst, The NPD Group
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential 2
Formula 1 Racing
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential 3
Moneyball
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Chicken Little
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential
Size and Growth by Industry
5
Source: The NPD Group / Consumer Tracking Service, 12ME Mar 2016 (Apparel + Footwear), Retail Tracking Service, 12ME Mar 2016 (Prestige Beauty + Tech + Toys)
Footwear Apparel
$8.5B
Tech
$1.8B
Toys -7% +8%
$6.9B
Footwear
$25.7B
Apparel +2% +4%
$1.9B
Prestige Beauty
+14%
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential
Seasonal Trends by Industry
6
Tech Toys Apparel Footwear Beauty
Source: The NPD Group / Consumer Tracking Service, 12ME Mar 2016 (Apparel + Footwear), Retail Tracking Service, 12ME Mar 2016 (Prestige Beauty + Tech + Toys)
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential
Sales Evolution by Industry
7
Tech Toys
$7.5
$8.0
$8.5
$9.0
$9.5
$10.0
$1.40
$1.45
$1.50
$1.55
$1.60
$1.65
$1.70
$1.75
$1.80
$1.85
+17% -11%
Apparel Footwear
$23.0
$23.5
$24.0
$24.5
$25.0
$25.5
$26.0
+2% $5.6
$5.8
$6.0
$6.2
$6.4
$6.6
$6.8
$7.0
+4%
Beauty
$1.4
$1.5
$1.6
$1.7
$1.8
$1.9
$2.0
+14%
Source: The NPD Group / Consumer Tracking Service, 12ME Mar 2016 (Apparel + Footwear), Retail Tracking Service, 12ME Mar 2016 (Prestige Beauty + Tech + Toys)
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential
Regional Growth by Industry
8
Tech Toys
7%
3%
4%
5%
5%
4%
ON
QC
AB
BC
MB/SK
ATL
-6%
-8%
-14%
-5%
-8%
-10%
ON
QC
AB
BC
MB/SK
ATL
Apparel Footwear
5%
1%
3%
7%
1%
6%
ON
QC
AB
BC
MB/SK
ATL
Beauty
16%
5%
7%
23%
11%
23%
ON
QC
AB
BC
MB/SK
ATL
3%
12%
-5%
1%
-10%
-14%
ON
QC
AB
BC
MB/SK
ATL
Source: The NPD Group / Consumer Tracking Service, 12ME Mar 2016 (Apparel + Footwear), Retail Tracking Service, 12ME Mar 2016 (Prestige Beauty + Tech + Toys)
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Evolution and Valuation
Outdoor & Sport Toys IT
Home Infant / Toddler
Toys Consumer Electronics
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$1
$200,001
$400,001
$600,001
$800,001
$1,000,001
$1,200,001
$0.0
$500.0
$1,000.0
$1,500.0
$2,000.0
$2,500.0
$3,000.0
$3,500.0
$4,000.0
$4,300,000.0
$4,400,000.0
$4,500,000.0
$4,600,000.0
$4,700,000.0
$4,800,000.0
$4,900,000.0
$5,000,000.0
$5,100,000.0
$5,200,000.0
$5,300,000.0
$2.9B
-16% +1%
$1.0B
+3%
$0.3B
$4.6B $0.3B
$262,000
$264,000
$266,000
$268,000
$270,000
$272,000
$274,000
$276,000
Boots
$1.2
$1.3
$1.4
$1.5
$1.6
$1.7
$1.8
$1.9
$2.0
+4%
$1.9B
Activewear
$4.2
$4.4
$4.6
$4.8
$5.0
$5.2
$5.4
$5.6 $5.5B
Athletic Shoes
$1.7B
Basics Denim
$1.6
$1.7
$1.7
$1.8
$1.8
$1.9
$1.9
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0 $3.6B $1.8B
Makeup
$0.7B
Fragrance
$0.5B
$1.2
$1.3
$1.4
$1.5
$1.6
$1.7
$1.8
$1.9
$2.0
+9% +19%
-11% +6% +8% +1% -9% +7%
Source: The NPD Group / Consumer Tracking Service, 12ME Mar 2016 (Apparel + Footwear), Retail Tracking Service, 12ME Mar 2016 (Prestige Beauty + Tech + Toys)
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Seasonal Trends
Outdoor & Sport Toys
IT (Laptops, Computers, etc.)
Home Appliances
Infant / Toddler Toys
Consumer Electronics
Makeup
Fragrance Activewear Basics Denim
Boots Athletic Shoes
Source: The NPD Group / Consumer Tracking Service, 12ME Mar 2016 (Apparel + Footwear), Retail Tracking Service, 12ME Mar 2016 (Prestige Beauty + Tech + Toys)
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential
Key Items Winning in Canada: Innovation Leads to Success in Converting the Masses
11
Mobile Holders /
Stands Shopkins Star Wars
Sweats & Active Bottoms Athletic Shoes
Makeup All Other Face
Skincare Masks
Athletic Sets
+103% +1126% +121% +9% +9% +55% +43% +65%
Source: The NPD Group / Consumer Tracking Service, 12ME Mar 2016 (Apparel + Footwear), Retail Tracking Service, 12ME Mar 2016 (Prestige Beauty + Tech + Toys)
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential
16%
12%
9%
14%
31%
17%
84%
88%
91%
86%
61%
83%
Total
APPAREL
BEAUTY
FOOTWEAR
TECH
TOYS
Buying Visits By Category
Website Brick & Mortar
9%
14%
13%
10%
7%
6%
4%
9%
91%
86%
87%
90%
93%
94%
96%
91%
Total
13-17
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Buying Visits By Age Group
Website Brick & Mortar
Source: The NPD Group / Consumer Tracking Service/Shopping Activity Services/12ME March 2016
Millennials Lead Retailers Online
12
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Making the Case For Assortment Expansion
CASE STUDY:
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential
Here’s how one leading footwear manufacturer increased their SKUs at a large, national retailer
14
By digging into consumer data, our client learned that:
Flats was among the top attributes in women’s footwear.
1 2 Key buying attributes for women’s flats are:
COMFORT VALUE PRICING
It turns out, our client held a leadership position when it came to comfortable, value-priced shoes
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By combining the data with our understanding of the retailer’s core consumer, we put together an assortment that was larger and dialed in to the retailer’s go-to-market strategy.
“
”
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The result?
+58% increase in SKU listings
+10% increase in
retailer sell-through
+50% increase in
“penny profit”
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Investigating Marketing Mix to Increase Market Share
CASE STUDY:
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential
Canada’s small appliance market was driven by countertop blenders
18
A leading small appliance manufacturer was experiencing declining sales despite recent investments in marketing
+17%
blenders $448K
Gaining 1 additional
share point is worth
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We need to know whether, and to what extent, the media mix decisions paid off, and how we might optimize future spending.
“
”
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A marketing mix model was created using weekly sales data combined with our client’s marketing spend data
20
The analysis determined the return on investment (ROI) for each of their marketing activities.
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The source of sales and share declines traced back to changes in their media plan Our client had shifted substantial advertising dollars away from certain high-ROI magazines; new digital advertising had not panned out at all.
A new media plan was proposed to correct marketing spend:
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The result?
+12% additional units sold
Optimization of media plan expected to lead to an increase of
And, we’re already seeing sales and market share on the rise!
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Helping a Global Beauty Brand Amp Up Sales
CASE STUDY:
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential
Source: The NPD Group / BeautyTrends® 12ME December 2015
State of the Prestige Beauty Industry in Canada and the U.S.
24
$1.9B $16B
+12% +7%
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential
Canada’s prestige beauty market is driven by makeup
25
But, a leading beauty manufacturer was losing share in this growing market – never a good sign
+17%
makeup
+17%
-5%
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential
Store clusters were created that aligned with each sales territory and corresponding sales rep
26
Territory by territory, we benchmarked sales, share, and growth, and identified opportunities, competitive threats, and local market dynamics.
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential
Our client’s brands were losing in multicultural markets
27
An urban strategy was proposed to win in major urban centers which are known hotbeds for multiculturalism:
65%
Top 6 Greater Metropolitan Areas
account for:
of the prestige beauty market
1
2
Two niche brands did well in multicultural markets. Focus investments on those brands in major urban centers.
Enrich the in-store experience for more effective outreach to specific groups (in-aisle and on-counter collateral, more sophisticated training program for counter associates).
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After just two fiscal periods, a sales increase of over
The result?
+10% was already realized.
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Mobile First
If you remember nothing else…
Defined Digital Strategy (if you haven’t already by now!)
Analytics + Data Driven Decision Making
Fun-Tech (Fun with Technology)
IoT (Internet of Things)
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