GARINHARTYANG RESEARCH GROUP

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M E M O R A N D U M TO: ROY CHO FOR CONGRESS COMMITTEE

FROM: GARIN HART YANG RESEARCH GROUP

DATE: JUNE 23, 2014

RE: JUST-COMPLETED NJ 5TH CD SURVEY Between June 19 and 22, Garin Hart Yang conducted a survey among a representative sample of 404 likely New Jersey 5th CD general election voters (margin of error ±5 percentage points). Our survey findings suggest that, while Democratic challenger Roy Cho suffers from a severe deficit in name recognition (21% recognize Cho, 83% recognize Republican incumbent Scott Garrett), the fundamentals of the 2014 election that we are measuring across the country (severe discontent with Washington and with the GOP majority in Congress) provide the perfect ingredients to upset Congressman Garrett. In other words, if Roy Cho can continue to mount an aggressive, energetic grassroots effort AND raise the funds to increase his name recognition, the ingredients are present for him to run a competitive and winning campaign. Despite Roy’s name recognition deficit, the initial trial heat actually is already competitive, and the incumbent is under the important 50% mark that signals vulnerability: Garrett garners 47% of the vote, Roy Cho stands at 34%, while 19% are undecided. There are several fundamental reasons why Garrett is underperforming and why Roy Cho has a path to victory. First, 5th CD voters (like voters across the nation) are dissatisfied with Washington and even with the GOP majority. In fact, close to three in four (74%) voters DISAPPROVE of the GOP majority, including 75% of unaffiliated voters and 78% of undecided voters. Second, Scott Garrett is NOT immune from the record levels of anti-incumbency that well-respected, nonpartisan polling firms are measuring across the nation. Just one-third of voters would reelect Congressman Garrett, while 50% prefer to make a change and elect someone else. A very good sign that the election actually is closer than the 47%-to-34% Garrett lead is that, among undecided voters, ZERO percent would reelect Garrett. Third, the polling makes clear that once 5th CD voters hear Roy Cho’s impressive background and priorities, the race immediately becomes a

GARINHARTYANG RESEARCH GROUP

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near dead heat EVEN when we present positive information about BOTH candidates. We provided voters with the following positive, factual information about the candidates:

SCOTT GARRETT has represented this area in Congress for 12 years. As a senior member of the Budget Committee, Garrett is a leading advocate for smaller government, cutting government spending, and simplifying the tax code. He also founded the Congressional Constitution Caucus, which seeks to protect the original intent of the Founding Fathers, and has led efforts to keep our country's financial markets globally competitive. Garrett is a life-long New Jersey resident who believes the federal government has become too intrusive and is jeopardizing the freedom of American citizens.

ROY CHO realized the American Dream as the son of immigrants who came to America with virtually nothing. He is a product of New Jersey public schools, an Ivy League graduate, and a successful business attorney at a prominent firm. Cho believes that Congress has been taken over by special interests and that Washington is more dysfunctional than ever because the voice of regular people is no longer being heard. He's ready to take on the challenge to make the system work again and get results for northern New Jersey.

After hearing this information, the trial heat closes dramatically, as the following chart shows.

Initial Trial Heat

Informed Trial Heat

Change

Roy Cho 34% 42% +8

Scott Garrett 47% 46% -1

Undecided 19% 12%

Finally, the challenger draws AHEAD of the incumbent AFTER we provide negative information about BOTH candidates, with Roy Cho drawing 46% of the vote and Scott Garrett getting 36%.

Final Trial Heat

Roy Cho 46%

Scott Garrett 36%

Undecided 18% In summary, we understand the difficulty of defeating an entrenched incumbent and recognize that Scott Garrett has several advantages at his disposal, including his higher name recognition. However, as recent primary elections have shown and national polling continues to demonstrate, Garrett’s incumbency actually may be an obstacle for him in 2014, and Roy Cho’s energy, independence, and nonpolitical, pragmatic background make him the ideal candidate for a dissatisfied and cynical electorate.