nmr enabled sample design kent mathis – jea craig williamson – energy insights
TRANSCRIPT
NMR Enabled Sample Design
Kent Mathis – JEA
Craig Williamson – Energy Insights
JEA (formerly Jacksonville Electric Authority)Originally a municipal electric authority In 1997 JEA took over water and sewage for the city Now we’re just “JEA”. We have about 2300 permanent employees.
Customer base:405,000 electric300,000 water223,000 sewer
Service Territory900 square milesSeveral counties in NE Florida
JEA’s Electric System
JEA owns and operates three generating plants and all transmission and distribution facilities. A fourth power plant, the St. Johns River Power Park (SJRPP), is owned jointly by JEA and the Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) and operated by JEA. JEA and FPL are also joint owners of Unit 4 at Georgia Power Company's coal-fired Robert W. Scherer Plant (Plant Scherer), which is located in Macon, Georgia. JEA produces 3.2 MW from a methane-fueled generating facility at the Girvin Road Landfill. JEA's net generating capability is 2,361 MW, gross capacity is just under 3,000 MW
The Ascent of JEA NMR-Enabled Load Research
Craig
Kent
Future
CraigKent
Present
Cellnet Nomenclature
Meter-RFE
CellMaster
`
Cellnet SystemController
OCDB
MicroCellController (MCC)
RF Transmission: - 1 way communication - Transmits every 5 minutes
RF Transmission: - 2 way communication - Typical communication once per day - On-demand capability
Leased circuit: - 2 way communication - Always on
Establish TeamCorporate Data Integration (CDI)
Randy BoswellVP CDI
Richard VentoDirector CDI
Dennis FlemingAdv NMR Engineer
Tonya BellLR Analyst
Kent MathisLR Manager
Don WuckerDSM Specialist
Initial Corporate Data Integration Goals
Develop Team Knowledge, Skills & Abilities
Training (LR, DSM, NMR & Tools)Hire LR & DSM Consulting Experts
Meet Customers & Discuss Needs Load Research (LR)Demand Side Management (DSM)Advanced NMR
Develop TeamKnowledge, Skills & Abilities
TrainingJoined AEIC and pursuing membership in LR committee
LR Workshops, Conferences & Classes
NMR Understand how the system works
Software SAS AnalyzeIT & VisualizeIT
Hire Load Research ExpertSurveyed OptionsTraditional consultant vs subscription services
Energy Insights
Meet Prospective Customers and Discuss Their Needs
Over a 3 month period (March, April, May) met with customersRates, System Planning & Forecasting, Distribution EngineeringMarketing, Customer Service, Account Executives, DSMOperations, System Reliability, Power QualityBilling & Metering, Collections
Needs Centered AroundLoad ResearchDemand Side Management
Analyze Winter Peak & Develop Programs to reduce peak TOU
Advanced NMR Functions Distribution System Loading Optimized Theft Detection Customer Load Information & Notification
Initial Load Research GoalsDevelop Toolset Get NMR Interval Data Flowing – July 2006
Figure out ProcessSwitching Meters OnInitial Sample Design
Collect & Analyze Summer Peak – Late September 2006Completed Load CurvesSystem Load Distribution – Ongoing
Estimate Rate Class Load Shapes – Long termDesign, Select & Install SampleCollect & Analyze Data
Develop Toolset
Load Research ToolsetComplete Connectivity between SystemsCurrently using temporary database (MSPR)
SASPurchased in March
AnalyzeIT & VisualizeITPurchased in April
Excel
Meter Data Management
System (MDMS)
Meter Data Management
System (MDMS)
NMR Business Intelligence
Load
Rese
arch
Syste
m P
lan
nin
g
Marke
t Rese
arch
En
erg
y M
an
ag
em
en
t
Other Data Other Data SourcesSources
(FFDS, FMS, (FFDS, FMS, CAIR, etc.)CAIR, etc.)
Other Data Other Data SourcesSources
(FFDS, FMS, (FFDS, FMS, CAIR, etc.)CAIR, etc.)
ITRONS ITRONS MV90MV90
ITRONS ITRONS MV90MV90
Primary Meter Data
Primary Meter Data
Other Meter DataOther Meter Data
Other Meter D
ata
Other Meter D
ata
Field ForceField Force Dispatch Dispatch System System (FFDS)(FFDS)
Field ForceField Force Dispatch Dispatch System System (FFDS)(FFDS)
Data MartsData MartsData MartsData Marts
External External CustomersCustomersExternal External
CustomersCustomersWeb Access toWeb Access to
ExternalExternalCustomersCustomers
Web Access toWeb Access toExternalExternal
CustomersCustomers
NMR NMR (Cellnet)(Cellnet)
NMR NMR (Cellnet)(Cellnet)
Customer Information
System (CAIR)
Customer Information
System (CAIR)
JEA InternalJEA InternalCustomersCustomersJEA InternalJEA InternalCustomersCustomers
Meter Data Management System Flow
Making changes to MDMS and creating Data Marts to allow LR data to pass thru
Initial Sample Design SummaryExamined Sample Design Population
124 Report & CAIR Rate Name ReportStudied 5 rate classes (Res, GS, GSD, GSLD, Int/Cur)Designed samples for Res, GS, and split the population for GSD into two subgroups
Consumption DataCleaned and organized data (frequency distributions in 50 kWh buckets)
Developed 2-D Stratification (reduce variability)Delanius Hodges – Produced BreakpointsFor Res and GS, we used a 3x2 design of 6 strata, with 3 winter strata (low, medium, high), and two summer strata (low, high), plus one extreme stratum (very high summer or very high winter or both), producing 7 ‘buckets’For each subgroup in GSD, we used a 2x2 design, with 2 winter strata (low, high), and two summer strata (low, high), plus one extreme stratum (very high summer or very high winter or both), producing 5 ‘buckets’
Residential Sample Implementation
Stratum Designinitial
requestAllegedly
workingSecond
roundUsable Data
8/4/06
Pecent allegedly working
Percent usable
LWLS 50 100 98 0 41 98% 41%LWHS 50 100 96 0 54 96% 54%MWLS 50 100 99 0 50 99% 50%MWHS 50 100 95 0 52 95% 52%HWLS 50 100 92 0 58 92% 58%HWHS 50 100 97 0 59 97% 59%EWS 10 36 15 0 15 42% 42%
TOTAL 310 636 592 0 329 93% 52%
GS Sample Implementation
Stratum DesignInitial request
Allegedly working
Second round
Usable Data 8/4/06
Pecent allegedly working
Percent usable
LWLS 100 100 84 200 54 84% 18%LWHS 50 50 11 100 44 22% 29%MWLS 80 80 21 160 69 26% 29%MWHS 80 80 14 160 61 18% 25%HWLS 50 50 7 100 36 14% 24%HWHS 80 80 14 160 61 18% 25%EWS 48 48 2 0 4 4% 8%
TOTAL 488 488 153 880 329 31% 24%
GSD Sample Implementation
Stratum DesignInitial request
Allegedly working
Second round
Usable Data 8/4/06
Pecent allegedly working
Percent usable
LWLS-1 70 140 32 100 60 23% 25%LWHS-1 65 130 33 100 66 25% 29%HWLS-1 25 50 19 37 26 38% 30%HWHS-1 100 200 42 100 95 21% 32%EXWS-1 41 41 0 0 1 0% 2%LWLS-2 80 80 41 251 70 51% 21%LWHS-2 55 55 17 151 46 31% 22%HWLS-2 55 55 12 123 23 22% 13%HWHS-2 80 80 18 197 48 23% 17%EXWS-2 25 25 0 0 8 0% 32%
TOTAL 596 856 214 1059 443 25% 23%
Load Profiling by Rate ClassSummer Peak Day - 8/4/06
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour of Day
kW
Residential General Service General Service Demand Large Industrial Interruptibles/Curtailables Ameristeel
Sample design moving forwardWe will use the variances and means from the data for August 4th to calculate required sample sizes and allocate sample points for the summer peakWe will use the means and variances for the MV-90 data to calculate the required sample sizes and allocate sample points for the winter peak for GS and GSD, and use judgment for Residential winter peak accuracyWe will carefully consider the implications of the expected percent of meters that can’t deliver interval dataCurrent sample will be randomly reduced or increased where necessaryWe will include interval data from MV-90 customers that are chosen in the sample
Lessons Learned
Expectation
Toolset will be completed within 2 to 3 months
Reality
Time to build toolset is longer than promised
Lessons Learned
Expectation
It’s easy to keep things straight…
Reality
•No connectivity without toolset
•Each system uses different keys•GIS – Transformer ID•MV90 – Recorder ID•CAIR – Account ID•MSPR – SPIDs
•Difficult to do what should be an easy task
Lessons Learned (cont)
Expectation
Over 99% of our NMR meters are enabled
Reality
•Over 99% of NMR meters are deployed•Only about 90% of NMR meters are active•Of the 90%, even a lower % have acceptable Packet Success Ratios (PSRs)•None of the above issues are evenly distributed among rate classes
Lessons Learned (cont)
Expectation
Defining the population will be easy
Reality
•Defining the population is hard•No accurate list of customers and their rates exist
“Ahas”Originally afraid JEA faced a long, slow, expensive learning curve - Purchasing Energy Use Strategic Service continues to be high value for cost; purchase did not require formal bidding process
Having an NMR system is enabling our LR group to expand beyond traditional LR applications and uses
Going Forward
Complete COS Sample DesignComplete LR ToolsetCollect & Analyze Winter PeakDevelop System Load Snapshot SkillsDevelop Customer Base & LR Products
Contact Information
Craig Williamson Program Director,
Energy End Use [email protected]
tel 303-385-0342
Kent MathisLoad Research Manager
tel 904-665-5720