no slide titlethe need for alternative fuels: in 2011, the u.s. imported 4.1 billion barrels of...
TRANSCRIPT
Question: What is an alternative fuel?
Answer :
The Energy Policy Act definition of an Alternative
Fuel cannot have a petroleum (crude oil) base
Question:
How many gallons are in a
‘barrel’ of oil?
Answer :
A barrel of oil contains 42 gallons
Question: How many barrels of oil are
used in the United States per day?
Answer : 19.5 million barrels of oil are used in the U.S. - per day
Last Question: What percent of the oil is
imported in the United States?
Answer : 60% of the oil used in the US
is imported
Overview of Alternative Fuels
The NEED For Alternative Fuels: In 2011, the U.S. imported 4.1 billion barrels of petroleum accounting for 60% of
the U.S. supply. The total cost of those imports was $453.6 billion. That represents an increase in
cost of 34.6% over 2010 and an increase of 71.8% over 2009. Source: Pickens Plan
$45 Billion Spent On Health Care Related To Air Pollution Source: American Lung Assoc.
Overview
• World oil production is at or near maximum.
• When decline begins, shortages will develop & increase until mitigation takes hold more than a decade after it’s started.
• Oil prices will escalate & economic damage will increase.
• As with any severe problem, there will be opportunities to contribute & benefit.
Royal Swedish Academy, October 2005:
54 of the 65 most important oil-producing countries were at or past
peak.
Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource that is being rapidly
depleted.
Prod
ucti
on -
MM
bpd
Peak 2011-2013
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
86
88
90
92
94
Megaprojects -Skrebowski Giant Fields -Robelius
Various approaches forecast peaking soon.
100
90
80
70
60
50 2000 2010 2020 2030
Country Studies - Campbell 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90
Prod
ucti
on -
MM
bpd
Peak 2010 - 2011
Hubbert Linearization
How is world oil production decline likely to hurt?
The brief oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 resulted in:
• Public shock & panic
• Oil shortages & gas lines
• Declining stock markets
• Rising unemployment
• Increasing interest rates
• Inflation & recession
What’s ahead will not be brief.
Time
World oil production
Oil Price
Oil price rises to $ 100s per barrel
Oil production drops at
3 - 5% per annually
2 - 5 years
?
How It Might Play Out
0 5 10 15
5
0
15
25
Years After Crash Program Initiation
Impact (MM bpd)
20
35 EOR
Coal Liquids
Heavy Oil
GTL
Efficient Vehicles
Worldwide Crash Program Mitigation of Conventional Oil Production Peaking
Alternative Fuels
Methanol and Ethanol Biodiesel Electric vehicles Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)
Methanol Vehicles
Produced from natural gas, coal, residual oil, or biomass Clean burning 10% Horsepower increase Methanol to gasoline storage ratio is 1.7 to 1
Ethanol Vehicles
Produced from energy crops and solid waste Clean burning Expensive conversions Ethanol to gasoline storage ratio is 1.4 to 1
Biodiesel
_ 100% Domestic
_ Made from vegetable oil fueling is the same as with diesel
_ Horsepower, torque and mpg similar _ Costs: B100 $1.95 to $4.75 per gallon B20 30 to 40 cents more per gallon
Electric Vehicles
Noise and emission level reductions Limited range Requires little maintenance Long recharging time
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Propane)
Developed distribution infrastructure Clean burning Reduced vehicle range Good cold weather starting
Compressed Natural Gas Vehicle
Established distribution infrastructure Clean burning Low fuel and conversion costs CNG vehicles are safe
Advantages of CNG
Reduced Exhaust Emissions Large Domestic Resource Extensive Pipeline In Place No Underground Storage Required Higher Octane Ratings Safe To Operate And Maintain
Disadvantages of CNG • Added Weight From Cylinders
• Less Cargo Space
• Few Fueling Stations
• Conversion Costs
• Bi-Fuel Can Not Optimize Both Fuels
Safety Fuel Properties
Toxicity Explosion Potential
CNG Vehicles
Bi-Fuel Or Dedicated-Fuel Four Primary Components
- Fuel Cylinder - Fuel Line - Regulator(s) - Mixer
Major Components
of a Compressed Natural Gas
System
Comparison of cross section -- 4 cylinder types
NGV2-1 Type 1 all steel
NGV2-3 Type 3 full-wrapped aluminum
NGV2-2 Type 2 hoop-wrapped aluminum
NGV2-4 Type 4 Full composite with liner
Want to know more?
http://www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/ http://www.cleanfuelsohio.org/ http://www.pickensplan.com/
