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  • May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

    NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update

    May 2017

    Jake Crouch Climate scientist, climate monitoring branch, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information

    Patrick Guinan Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia

    Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal Forecaster , NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Operations Prediction Branch

  • May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 2

    • April: +0.90°C above 20th century average

    – 2nd warmest April on record

    – 388th consecutive month of above-average global temperatures

    • Land: +1.37°C

    – 4th warmest April on record

    • Ocean: +0.73°C

    – 2nd warmest April on record

    The global temperature record dates to 1880 (138 years)

    Land and Ocean Temperature Percentiles

    April 2017

  • May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 3

    Jan-Apr 2017: +0.95°C above average,

    2nd warmest on record.

  • May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

    Temperature: 53.8°F, +2.7°F, 11th warmest April on record Precipitation: 3.43”, +0.91”, 2nd wettest April on record

    4

    Temperature Percentiles April 2017 Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)

    Precipitation Percentiles April 2017 Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)

    • DE, MD, NJ, NC, OH, PA, WV, VA and DC were record warm

    • Much-above average temperatures from Mississippi River to East Coast

    • Below-average temperatures in the Northwest

    • Northwest, Central Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic wetter than average

    • Southwest, Northern Plains, and parts of the Southeast were drier than average

    • Drought contracted rapidly during the month with flooding and severe weather in the central U.S.

  • May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

    Temperature: 43.7°F, +4.5°F, 2nd warmest year to date

    5

    Contiguous U.S. Jan-Apr Temperatures 1895-2017

    • Most of the contiguous US was warmer than average, with the exception of the Northwest

    • Fourteen states were record warm for Jan-Apr. Only Jan-Apr 2012 was warmer at 44.7°F

    Temperature Percentiles Jan-Apr 2017 Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

    Te m

    p e

    ra tu

    re D

    e p

    ar tu

    re s

    fr o

    m 2

    0 th

    c e

    n tu

    ry a

    ve ra

    ge (

    F)

  • May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 6

    5.6% of Contiguous U.S. in Drought ( 8.6 percentage points since late Mar)

    • Improvement: Central/Southern Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley, interior Southeast, Northeast • Degradation: Southwest, southern Georgia, Florida • Outside CONUS: Abnormal dryness removed from Puerto Rico, drought improved in Hawaii

  • May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 7

    A well forecasted extreme precipitation event…

    48-hr precipitation forecast beginning 7 p.m., Friday, Apr 28 thru 7 p.m., Sun, Apr 30, 2017

  • May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

    Two strong storm systems impacted the Mid-Mississippi Valley region during the end of April and early May, but it was the first system, on April 28-30, that dropped the majority of rainfall and contributed to major flooding

    Major Flood Event

    SGF WFO

    8

  • May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

    Major Flooding and Record Crests

    9

  • May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

    Four similar major flood events have occurred in the past decade…

    1 2

    3 4

    10

  • May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

    Half-red, half-white circles indicate roads

    closed due to flooding • Hundreds of road closures (MO, AR, IL, IN) - major traffic problems,

    I-44 and I-55 shut down in places

    • Damage to infrastructure (MO, AR, IL, IN) - washed out roads & bridges, failed levies, flooded homes & businesses

    • Flooded farmland (MO, AR, IL, IN) - millions of acres of flooded bottomland and millions of dollars of damage to row crops, pastures, orchards, sod farms, fruit and vegetable producers, CSAs etc. – replanting in earnest

    • Casualties (MO, AR, IL, IN) - hundreds of water rescues, evacuations and 12 fatalities

    Impacts

    Meramec River Valley Park, MO St. Louis Post Dispatch

    Clearwater Lake Emergency Spillway, Wayne County, MO

    Kimberly Combs

    Doniphan, MO

    NWS Storm Survey

    Chandler, IN Police Dept.

    May 4, 2017

    USDA

    Southeastern IL

    Linda Geist

    Rolla, MO

    East Pocahontas, AR

    Stephen B. Thornton

    Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

    USDA Pemiscot County, MO

    11

  • May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 12 May 2017

    • Sea Surface Temperatures – Above normal SSTs in the eastern

    equatorial Pacific now extend westward across much of the basin

    – Away from the equator, above normal (below normal) SSTs across the subtropical (mid-latitude) Pacific and off the eastern seaboard

    – ENSO neutral conditions are present

    • ENSO Forecast – ENSO neutral and El Niño equally likely

    (~45%) from summer through the upcoming winter

    – A repeat of La Niña remains unlikely in 2017

  • May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 13

    June Average Temperature Probability

    June Total Precipitation Probability

    May 2017

  • May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 14

    June-July-Aug Average Temperature Probability

    June-July-Aug Total Precipitation Probability

    May 2017

  • May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 15 May 2017

  • May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

    For More Information

    TODAY’S PRESENTATION:

    • http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings

    NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: www.ncdc.noaa.gov

    • Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

    • Dates for upcoming reports: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases

    NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

    U.S. Drought Monitor: http://drought.gov

    Climate Portal: www.climate.gov

    Midwest Regional Climate Center: http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

    Missouri State Climate Center: http://climate.missouri.edu/

    NOAA Media Contacts:

    [email protected] , 301-713-0214 (NOAA Communications/NESDIS)

    [email protected], 202-482-2365 (NOAA Communications/HQ)

    16 Monthly Climate Webinar May 2017

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/ http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/ http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://drought.gov/ http://www.climate.gov/ http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/ http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/ http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/ http://climate.missouri.edu/ http://climate.missouri.edu/ http://www.sercc.com/ http://www.sercc.com/ http://www.sercc.com/ mailto:[email protected] mailto:[email protected]

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