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May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update May 2017 Jake Crouch Climate scientist, climate monitoring branch, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information Patrick Guinan Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal Forecaster , NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Operations Prediction Branch

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Page 1: NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal

May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update

May 2017

Jake Crouch Climate scientist, climate monitoring branch, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information

Patrick Guinan Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia

Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal Forecaster , NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Operations Prediction Branch

Page 2: NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal

May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 2

• April: +0.90°C above 20th century average

– 2nd warmest April on record

– 388th consecutive month of above-average global temperatures

• Land: +1.37°C

– 4th warmest April on record

• Ocean: +0.73°C

– 2nd warmest April on record

The global temperature record dates to 1880 (138 years)

Land and Ocean Temperature Percentiles

April 2017

Page 3: NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal

May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 3

Jan-Apr 2017: +0.95°C above average,

2nd warmest on record.

Page 4: NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal

May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

Temperature: 53.8°F, +2.7°F, 11th warmest April on record

Precipitation: 3.43”, +0.91”, 2nd wettest April on record

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Temperature Percentiles April 2017 Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)

Precipitation Percentiles April 2017 Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)

• DE, MD, NJ, NC, OH, PA, WV, VA and DC were record warm

• Much-above average temperatures from Mississippi River to East Coast

• Below-average temperatures in the Northwest

• Northwest, Central Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic wetter than average

• Southwest, Northern Plains, and parts of the Southeast were drier than average

• Drought contracted rapidly during the month with flooding and severe weather in the central U.S.

Page 5: NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal

May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

Temperature: 43.7°F, +4.5°F, 2nd warmest year to date

5

Contiguous U.S. Jan-Apr Temperatures 1895-2017

• Most of the contiguous US was warmer than average, with the exception of the Northwest

• Fourteen states were record warm for Jan-Apr. Only Jan-Apr 2012 was warmer at 44.7°F

Temperature Percentiles Jan-Apr 2017 Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)

-6

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6

1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

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Page 6: NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal

May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 6

5.6% of Contiguous U.S. in Drought ( 8.6 percentage points since late Mar)

• Improvement: Central/Southern Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley, interior Southeast, Northeast • Degradation: Southwest, southern Georgia, Florida • Outside CONUS: Abnormal dryness removed from Puerto Rico, drought improved in Hawaii

Page 7: NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal

May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 7

A well forecasted extreme precipitation event…

48-hr precipitation forecast beginning 7 p.m., Friday, Apr 28 thru 7 p.m., Sun, Apr 30, 2017

Page 8: NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal

May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

Two strong storm systems impacted the Mid-Mississippi Valley region during the end of April and early May, but it was the first system, on April 28-30, that dropped the majority of rainfall and contributed to major flooding

Major Flood Event

SGF WFO

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Page 9: NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal

May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

Major Flooding and Record Crests

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Page 10: NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal

May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

Four similar major flood events have occurred in the past decade…

1 2

3 4

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Page 11: NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal

May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

Half-red, half-white circles indicate roads

closed due to flooding • Hundreds of road closures (MO, AR, IL, IN) - major traffic problems,

I-44 and I-55 shut down in places

• Damage to infrastructure (MO, AR, IL, IN) - washed out roads & bridges, failed levies, flooded homes & businesses

• Flooded farmland (MO, AR, IL, IN) - millions of acres of flooded bottomland and millions of dollars of damage to row crops, pastures, orchards, sod farms, fruit and vegetable producers, CSAs etc. – replanting in earnest

• Casualties (MO, AR, IL, IN) - hundreds of water rescues, evacuations and 12 fatalities

Impacts

Meramec River Valley Park, MO St. Louis Post Dispatch

Clearwater Lake Emergency Spillway, Wayne County, MO

Kimberly Combs

Doniphan, MO

NWS Storm Survey

Chandler, IN Police Dept.

May 4, 2017

USDA

Southeastern IL

Linda Geist

Rolla, MO

East Pocahontas, AR

Stephen B. Thornton

Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

USDA Pemiscot County, MO

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Page 12: NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal

May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 12 May 2017

• Sea Surface Temperatures – Above normal SSTs in the eastern

equatorial Pacific now extend westward across much of the basin

– Away from the equator, above normal (below normal) SSTs across the subtropical (mid-latitude) Pacific and off the eastern seaboard

– ENSO neutral conditions are present

• ENSO Forecast – ENSO neutral and El Niño equally likely

(~45%) from summer through the upcoming winter

– A repeat of La Niña remains unlikely in 2017

Page 13: NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal

May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 13

June Average Temperature Probability

June Total Precipitation Probability

May 2017

Page 14: NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal

May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 14

June-July-Aug Average Temperature Probability

June-July-Aug Total Precipitation Probability

May 2017

Page 15: NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal

May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 15 May 2017

Page 16: NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal

May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

For More Information

TODAY’S PRESENTATION:

• http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: www.ncdc.noaa.gov

• Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

• Dates for upcoming reports: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

U.S. Drought Monitor: http://drought.gov

Climate Portal: www.climate.gov

Midwest Regional Climate Center: http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

Missouri State Climate Center: http://climate.missouri.edu/

NOAA Media Contacts:

[email protected] , 301-713-0214 (NOAA Communications/NESDIS)

[email protected], 202-482-2365 (NOAA Communications/HQ)

16 Monthly Climate Webinar May 2017