NOAA

North American Drought Monitor (NADM)

Sharon LeDucNOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

NOAA - Environment Canada Bilateral Meeting

November 6, 2008

sharon.leduc@noaa.gov

NOAA

NADM History First step of continent-wide assessment of long-term variability

and trends in extremes, North America Climate Extremes Monitoring (NACEM) – see backup slides

November 2001 – US, CN, MX initial meeting

April 2002 – NA drought monitoring program plans

December 2002 – first experimental NADM map

April 2003 – first NADM map released to public

November 2003 – Added French & Spanish translations

Summer 2004 – Canadian coverage extended

Share daily data (MSC, NOAA, SMN) & authorship:

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) in Canada NOAA(NCDC,CPC), USDA(JAWF), National Drought Mitigation Center National Meteorological Service (SMN) in Mexico

NCDC hosts website Biennial meeting hosted by each country

NOAA

NADM Operational Details

Each country determines drought depiction & narrative within national boundaries NADM lead authorship rotates NADM lead author integrates national drought assessments from each country,

prepares continental monthly map & narrative Continental indicators used for international boundaries All participants peer review product 5th of the Month: Data received; syncronized with appropriate USDM 7th of the Month: Online continental-scale indicator maps 10th of the Month: NADM lead author adjusts drought depiction along international

boundaries, distributes NADM map to all participants for peer review, produces additional drafts as necessary per peer review comments

12th of the Month: Country provides the narrative text to the lead author; integration & distribution of text for continental narrative for peer review; continental map depiction finalized

14th of the Month: Country final approval of map & narrative to lead author 16th of the Month: Narrative & map online

NOAA

The Challenge

No fixed drought definition, several drought types (hydro, agricultural, meteorological), personal perception of what constitutes drought, one indicator does not fit all

1) Direct Measurements

a) Reservoir storage

b) Streamflows

c) Soil moisture (e.g. SCAN)

d) Groundwater

2) Drought Indices

a) Palmer Drought Index

b) SPI

c) SWSI

3) Remote Sensing

4) Modeling

a) LDAS Soil Moisture and Runoff

b) CPC Leaky Bucket

5) Impacts (Mostly subjective)

6) Combinations of the Above (U.S. Drought Monitor)

NOAA

Consolidate indices and indicators into one comprehensive drought map Palmer Drought Index - SPI - KBDI Modeled Soil Moisture - 7-Day Avg. Streamflow - Precipitation Anomalies

Growing Season: - Crop Moisture Index - Sat. Veg. Health Index Soil Moisture Mesonet data

In The West: - SWSI - Reservoir levels Snowpack Streamflow

Trying to capture these characteristics: the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity) spatial extent probability of occurrence Impacts

Rates drought intensity by percentile ranks

The US Drought Monitor Concept

NOAA

Drought Severity ClassificationsOriginal intent of USDM was to depict on the consensus of 5 or 6 key indicators.Original intent of USDM was to depict on the consensus of 5 or 6 key indicators.

NOAA

What is Needed

A consistent, objective Drought Monitor based on a synthesis of the indicators, tweaked to reflect ground truth

More accurate indicators, including more soil measurements

Continued progress on combining soil model output

Continued progress on satellite monitoring

NOAA

Opportunities for Future

Enhance assessment of moisture conditions in Canada Provide additional datasets (gridded, station normals)

Use remote sensing for continent-wide products Increase the number of satellite based products Compare in situ data with satellite based products

Create an expanded continental version of National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Support Earth Observation Partnership of Americas Facilitate international working relationships & collaborations Encourage the use and exchange of data Coordinate & leverage regional assets & resources