nÜfus etÜtlerİ enstİtÜsÜ · 2002-2015 social economic and population history in turkey. 0.0...
TRANSCRIPT
Prof.Dr.Aykut Toros
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NÜFUS ETÜTLERİ ENSTİTÜSÜ
Demographic Transition in Turkey: Landing on to CivilizationTÜRKİYE 4.NÜFUSBİLİM KONFERANSI 2015 (5-6Kasım 2015 Ankara)
This Presentation is Composed of Four Sections:
I.INTRODUCTION
II.DYNAMICS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: SOME MISSED OBSERVATIONS
III.WHAT HAPPENED IN TURKEY
IV. FURTHER CONCEPTS TO BE ELABORATED
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I.INTRODUCTION
John Grount 1665 Achille Guillard 1855 Alfred Lotka, 1880–1949 Frank W. Notestein1902-1983 Ansley J. Coale 1917-2002 Charles F. Westoff (hayatta) Norman B.Ryder 1923-2009
Nusret H Fişek 1914-1990 Frederic C. Shorter 1923-2012
DEMOGRAFİ’DE KALBURUN ÜZERİNDE KALANLARDAN ÖRNEKLER
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The Neolithic Revolution
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𝐶𝐵𝑅 = 𝑎=0
𝜔
𝐶 𝑎 ∗ 𝑓 𝑎 𝑑𝑎
7
0
10
20
30
40
50B
ind
e
Kaba doğum hızı
Source:Türkiye’nin Demografik
The Koç, et.al. Chart
The Shorter-Macura Chart
The Toros Chart
MAJOR EC. CRİSES
1929 World Economic Crisis
1958 Decleration OfMoratorium
1969 High Inflation
1974 Oil Crisis
1978
Economic
Crisis
1994 Exagerated
İnterest Rates
Up To 400%
2001 Bankruptcy of commercial banks
2008
Global
economic crisis
WARS I.World War
1922 Indipendence War
II.World War
1950KoreanWar
1974Cyprus PeaceOperation
CODIFICATIONS1922 Constitution
1924 Constitution1961 Constitution 1982 Constitution
2010 ReferandumLaw No 557 Law No 2827 Civil Law
-Def. Of Head of Family-Acquired Property
DEVELOPMENTPLANS
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
ADMINIST-RATIVE
Establishmentof Turkish Republic
12 MarchIntervation
12 SeptemberIntervation
27 MayIntervation
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
1908-1922 Wars and Revlution; Economy
without industry
1923-1929Reconstruction under open economy
1930-1939 Protective and EtatistIndustrialization
1940-1945
Interlude, II WW years
1946-1953 A new experiment in annexing to world economy
1954-1961 Clugging and readaptation
1962-1976 Introcentric and externally dependent development
1977-1979 A new Crisis
1980-1988 Counterattack of capıtal
1989-1997 Surrener to Financial apitaland slumperedreturn to
1997-2002
2002-2015
Social Economic and Population History in Turkey
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DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN TURKEY
CBR
CDR
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DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN TURKEY
CBR
CDR
NI
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DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN TURKEY
CBR
CDR
NI
4.Post-Transition
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DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN TURKEY
CBR
CDR
NI
1iPre-Transition 2.Early Transition 3.Late Transition
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DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN TURKEY
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DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN TURKEY
CBR
CDR
NI
Years CBR CDR NI
1900 53,0 34,0 19,0
1905 54,0 36,0 18,0
1910 53,0 33,0 20,0
1915 52,0 38,0 14,0
1920 50,0 40,0 10,0
1925 52,0 35,8 16,2
1930 53,0 35,0 18,0
1935 51,0 32,0 19,0
1940 45,6 31,4 14,2
1945 43,1 33,9 9,2
1950 45,9 27,0 18,9
1955 48,2 23,5 24,7
1960 46,8 19,8 27,0
1965 42,9 16,4 26,5
1970 39,0 13,5 25,5
1975 34,5 11,6 22,9
1980 29,3 10,3 19,0
1985 30,6 9,0 21,6
1990 29,1 7,9 21,2
1995 22,6 6,9 15,7
2000 21,8 6,5 15,1
2005 17,9 6,4 13,8
2010 21,6 6,4 15,2
2015 21,4 6,4 15,0