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Noise Oversight Committee May 20, 2015 Audio recordings are made of this meeting

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Page 1: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Noise Oversight Committee

May 20, 2015

Audio recordings are made of this meeting

Page 2: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Noise Oversight CommitteeMay 20, 2015

Item 1

Review and Approve Draft Meeting Minutes

Minutes from January 21 Noise Oversight Committee Meeting

Minutes from March 18 Noise Oversight Committee Meeting

Page 3: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Noise Oversight CommitteeMay 20, 2015

Item 2

Review of Operations Report Summary

March 2015

April 2015

Page 4: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

March April2015 9,976 9,676

2014 7,939 7,855

MSP Complaints

Technical Advisor’s Report Summary

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hou

seho

lds

Com

plai

nts

Complaints Households

Page 5: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

March April2015 35,119 32,686

2014 36,227 33,827

Total MSP Aircraft Operations

Technical Advisor’s Report Summary

33,04829,772

36,22733,827 34,377 35,659

37,306 36,689

33,08534,595

31,256 32,613

31,37129,033

35,11932,686

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Aircraft Ope

ratio

ns

2014 2015

Page 6: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Air Carrier Jet Operations

March April

Regional Jet

ModifiedStage 3 Other Regional 

JetModifiedStage 3 Other

2015 46.8% <0.0% 53.2% 45.8% <0.0% 54.2%

2014 50.8% <0.0% 49.2% 50.8% <0.0% 49.2%

Air Carrier Jet Fleet Composition

March April

2015 32,661 30,296

2014 34,051 31,518

Technical Advisor’s Report Summary

Page 7: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Source: Metropolitan Airports Commission’s Finance Department Monthly Passenger and Operations Reports

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000

1,000,000

Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ope

ratio

ns

Pass

enge

rs

Regional Air Carrier Operations and Passengers

Passengers Operations

MSP Passenger Data

02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ope

ratio

ns

Pass

enge

rsMajor Air Carrier Operations and Passengers

Passengers Operations

Page 8: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Nighttime Aircraft Operations(10:30pm ‐ 6:00 am)

Nighttime Runway Use Percentages

March April

All Nighttime Operations

2015 1,967 1,854

2014 1,725 1,527

Technical Advisor’s Report Summary

All Nighttime Use Percentages Runway March

2015April2015

Arrivals 4 0% 0%

12L 10.6% 14.8%

12R 31.7% 30.7%

17  0% 0%

22 0% 0%

30L 42.5% 34.5%

30R 15.2% 19.4%

35 0% 0.6%

All Nighttime Use Percentages Runway March

2015April2015

Departures 4 0% 0%

12L 16.4% 13.9%

12R 33.6% 30.8%

17  13.4% 11.1%

22 0% 0%

30L 24% 27.4%

30R 12.6% 16.8%

35 0% 0%

Page 9: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Technical Advisor’s Report Summary

0100200300400500600

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

A D A D A D A D A D A D A D A D

22:30 23:00 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00

Ope

ratio

ns

March 2015 Nighttime Scheduled Vs Actual Carrier Jet Operations10:30 pm ‐ 6:00 am

AAL DAL FDX FFT NKS SCX SWA UAL UPS AWE ASA Other

Airline Code Airline NameScheduled 

Modified Stage 3

Actual Modified Stage 

3

Scheduled Manufactured 

Stage 3

Actual Manufactured 

Stage 3Scheduled Total Actual Total

AAL American 0 0 43 101 43 101ASA Alaska 0 0 4 24 4 24AWE US Airways 0 0 41 116 41 116DAL Delta 0 0 114 536 114 536FDX Fedex 0 0 36 31 36 31FFT Frontier Airlines 0 0 10 33 10 33NKS Spirit 0 0 32 123 32 123SCX Sun Country 0 0 94 380 94 380SWA Southwest 0 0 39 146 39 146UAL United 0 0 36 64 36 64UPS UPS 0 0 59 58 59 58Other Other 0 2 0 266 0 268

Total 0 2 508 1878 508 1880

Page 10: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Technical Advisor’s Report Summary

0100200300400500600

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

Sche

duled

Actual

A D A D A D A D A D A D A D A D

22:30 23:00 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00

Ope

ratio

ns

April 2015 Nighttime Scheduled Vs Actual Carrier Jet Operations10:30 pm ‐ 6:00 am

AAL DAL FDX FFT NKS SCX SWA UAL UPS AWE ASA Other

Airline Code Airline NameScheduled 

Modified Stage 3

Actual Modified Stage 

3

Scheduled Manufactured 

Stage 3

Actual Manufactured 

Stage 3Scheduled Total Actual Total

AAL American 0 0 156 244 156 244ASA Alaska 0 0 13 29 13 29AWE US Airways 0 0 73 25 73 25DAL Delta 0 0 204 462 204 462FDX Fedex 0 0 36 32 36 32FFT Frontier Airlines 0 0 30 31 30 31NKS Spirit 0 0 119 95 119 95SCX Sun Country 0 0 91 306 91 306SWA Southwest 0 0 83 180 83 180UAL United 0 0 55 56 55 56UPS UPS 0 0 62 59 62 59Other Other 0 1 0 216 217

Total 1 922 1735 922 1736

Page 11: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

March April

Runway 17 Carrier Jet Departures 4,128 3,293

Compliance with Runway 17 Carrier Jet Departure 

Procedure99.5% 99.7%

Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary

Page 12: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

March April

Runways 12L and 12R Carrier Jet Departures 2,808 3,990

Carrier Jets Remaining in Corridor 96.5% 87.1%

Eagan-Mendota Heights Departure Corridor Analysis Summary

Page 13: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

March April

Carrier Jet Departures Crossing‐in‐the‐Corridor Nighttime (23:00‐06:00)

72(61%)

49(34%)

Carrier Jet DeparturesCrossing‐in‐the‐Corridor Daytime (06:00‐23:00)

831(31%)

1,181(31%)

Crossing-in-the-Corridor Analysis Summary

Page 14: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Noise Oversight CommitteeMay 20, 2015

Item 3

Presentation: The Metropolitan Airports Commission: An Overview

Jeff Hamiel, MAC Executive Director/CEO

Page 15: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

The Metropolitan Airports Commissionand MSP International Airport

Jeff Hamiel, CEOMetropolitan Airports Commission

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 16: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

MAC: A Different Approach to Government

• Public corporation created by Minnesota Legislature

• Owns and operates airports within 35 miles of downtown St. Paul and Minneapolis– MSP International Airport– Six general aviation airports

• User-fee based funding• Limited property taxing

authority unused since 1960s

We provide and promote safe, convenient, environmentally sound, cost‐competitive aviation services for our 

customers.

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 17: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Board Makeup

• Gov. appoints chairman and 12 commissioners (8 metro, 4 outstate)

• Minneapolis and St. Paul mayors each appoint one

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 18: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Although nearly 20,000 jobs are directly tied to MSP Airport operations, only 600 people are employed by the Metropolitan Airports Commission.

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 19: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

The MAC Airport System

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 20: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Conservative Financial Approach

• Conservative forecasting: nowhere to turn except reserves or short-term financing

• Financial model predicated only on originating and destination passengers

• Maintain six-month reserve• AA- bond rating• Airline cost per enplanement among the

lowest in the nation

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 21: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Cost Per Enplaned PassengerAirport Forecast 2014 ($)

Washington‐Dulles 29.86John F. Kenney‐New York 26.42Newark 25.44Miami 20.39Los Angeles 17.65LaGuardia‐New York 17.30San Francisco 15.68Boston 14.84

Chicago O’Hare 13.30Denver 12.97Philadelphia 12.53Washington‐Reagan 12.36Las Vegas 12.04Seattle 11.88Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78San Diego 10.72Houston‐Bush Intercontinental 10.38Detroit 10.35Portland 9.98Baltimore 9.50Minneapolis‐St. Paul 6.68Orlando 5.88Phoenix 5.87Atlanta 5.61Tampa 5.58Fort Lauderdale‐Hollywood 5.55Salt Lake City 4.09Charlotte‐Douglas 0.94

Average 12.32

Airline costs per boarding passenger are significantly less at MSP than at most large hub airports 

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 22: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

2015 MAC Finances

• Operating revenues: $303 million• Operating expenses: $164 million• Gross debt service: $128 million

• Outstanding debt: $1.5 billion

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 23: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Minneapolis-St. Paul International

• 17th busiest airport in North America (passengers)

• 11th busiest in operations• Delta Air Lines’ 2nd largest

hub

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 24: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

What people are saying about our

airport

Third Best Airport in North AmericaTravel & Leisure Magazine, 2014

Most Efficiently Managed Airport - North AmericaAir Transport Research Society, 2013

Best Overall Airport Concessions Program Airport Revenue News, 2014

Best Food & Beverage Program in North AmericaAirports Council International-North America, 2013

Airport with the Most New Routesanna.aero, airline network news & analysis, 2014

Page 25: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Air Service Success Measures

• Major, stable Delta hub• Additions since 2008:

– Alaska Air, 2008– Southwest Airlines, 2009– Great Lakes, 2011– Spirit, 2012– Air France, 2013– Condor, 2014

• Competitive incentives program

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 26: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

MSP Passengers

29,000,000

30,000,000

31,000,000

32,000,000

33,000,000

34,000,000

35,000,000

36,000,000

37,000,000

38,000,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 27: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

MSP Aircraft Operations

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 28: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Industry Consolidation

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 29: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

A Return to Airline Profitability• Shareholder equity vs.

market share• Big 4 (American, Delta,

Southwest, United) expected to earn $10 billion+ in 2014, and $15 billion or more in 2015

• Profits driven by:– Disciplined capacity control– Newer, right-sized aircraft– High travel demand– Low fuel costs– Ancillary revenues

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 30: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

• Lack of queueing space at Terminal 1• Inefficient security checkpoint layout• Insufficient Terminal 1 parking facilities• Expiring retail leases• Capacity constraints at Terminal 2

Near-Term MSP Challenges

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 31: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

• Consolidation of security checkpoints 1 thru 4 into single new checkpoint

• Rebid of most retail and more than a dozen restaurant locations

• Three-gate expansion of Terminal 2

• New Quick Ride Ramp• Explore development of

airport hotel• Aircraft viewing area

2015 Improvement Highlights

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 32: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

MSP Economic Impacts

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 33: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

MSP Employment Impacts

MSP=76,340 Jobs

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 34: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Visitor Spending Impacts

MSP=$1.9 Billion in Visitor Spending

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 35: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

More Information

www.metroairports.orgwww.mspairport.com

www.myMSPconnect.com

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter:www.twitter.com/mspairport

www.facebook.com/mspairport

Download our app:FlySmartTM

Noise Oversight Committee

Page 36: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Noise Oversight CommitteeMay 20, 2015

Item 4

Presentation: MSP 2035 Long Term Comprehensive Plan (LTCP) Update

Neil Ralston, MAC Airport Planner

Page 37: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

2035 Long‐Term Comprehensive Plan

20 May 2015Noise Oversight Committee (NOC) Briefing

Page 38: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Briefing Agenda

• Recap of LTCP Purpose• Planning Progress

– Aviation Activity Forecast– Facility Requirements Analysis– Development Alternatives– Environmental Considerations– Stakeholder Outreach

• TimelineMSP – 2014 Aerial Photo

2

Page 39: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

LTCP Purpose• Purpose

– Update view of future facility needs– Serve as the “road map” to guide 

our development strategy and shape our 7‐Year Capital Improvement Program

– Assesses when facility improvements are needed

3

Page 40: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECAST

4

Page 41: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

Forecast Elements• Passenger activities

– Originations & enplanements– Aircraft operations/fleet mix– Design‐Day flight schedules

• Other activities– Air Cargo Tonnage– Air Cargo, Air Taxi, General Aviation & 

Military aircraft operations

• Unconstrained• Milestone years 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035• Forecast Basis

5

Page 42: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

2035 LTCP Passenger Forecast (2015 – 2035)• Originations

– ~9m in 2014– ~15m by 2035– 2.5% AAG 2014‐2035

• Enplanements– ~17m in 2014– ~27m by 2035– 2.2% AAG 2014‐2035– Surpass historical peak 

before 20200.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Revenu

e Pa

ssen

ger E

nplane

men

ts (m

illions)

Source: HNTB ForecastAAG = Average Annual Growth Rate

6

PEAK

PEAK

Page 43: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

2035 LTCP Aircraft Operations Forecast (2015 – 2035)

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Aircraft Ope

ratio

ns (T

housan

ds)

• 511k operations in 2035– 412k in 2014– +1.0% AAG 2014‐2035– 2004 peak not 

exceeded in forecast period

Source: HNTB ForecastAAG = Average Annual Growth Rate

7

PEAK

Page 44: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

2035 LTCP Aircraft Fleet Mix Forecast• Daily Aircraft 

Departures by Type– Continual reduction 

in small regional jet (RJ) operations

– Significant growth in narrowbody (NB) aircraft operations

– Some growth in widebody (WB) 

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2013 2018 2023 2028 2033

Design Day Aircraft Dep

artures

Year

WB (DGV+)

WB (DGIV)

757 class

NB(>=150 seats)

NB (<150 seats)

RJ (>=51 seats)

RJ (<51 seats)

Turboprop

Source: HNTB Forecast

8

Page 45: Noise Oversight Committee · 20/05/2015  · Runway 17 Departure Analysis Summary. March April Runways 12L and 12R ... Seattle 11.88 Dallas‐Fort Worth 10.78 San Diego 10.72 Houston‐Bush

79 80 81 83 83

9194

96

103

109114

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Enplanem

ents/Dep

arture

Year

Historical

Forecast

2035 LTCP Forecast Wrap‐Up• Enplanements per 

Departure– 79 in 2009– 91 in 2014– 114 by 2035

• Key Takeaways– Airlines will move more 

passengers with fewer but larger aircraft

– Airfield will be adequate through planning horizon

9

+15%

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FACILITY REQUIREMENTS

10

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LTCP Facility Requirements Analysis• Facility Requirements

– Assessing capability of existing facilities to meet projected demand

– Two Scenarios (Book Ends)• Full Airlines Remain• Full Airlines Relocate

11

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Aircraft Gate Assessment• Existing Supply

– 106 Gates@ T1– 14 Gates @ T2– 120 Total Gates

• Includes reconfiguration of regional gates to accommodate larger aircraft

• Includes new gates at Terminal 2• 2022 Scenario – Existing gate supply 

largely adequate

12

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Aircraft Gate Requirements ‐ 2035• Full Airlines Remain

– Terminal 1 – 12 new narrowbody gates– Terminal 2 – 5 new narrowbody gates

• Full Airlines Relocate– Terminal 1 – No new gates– Terminal 2 – 19 narrowbody gates

13

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Terminal Requirements Summary

Source: Ricondo & Associates

14

• Full Airlines Remain– Processors at both terminals largely 

adequate through early 2020s– Facility shortfalls post‐2020:

• Terminal 1 inbound baggage claim & outbound baggage cart staging

• Terminal 2 ticketing positions & inbound baggage claim

• Full Airlines Relocate– Terminal 1 Processors largely 

adequate through 2035; excess capacity

– Terminal 2 Processors require significant expansion

Facility Shortfall

Facility AdequacyT1 Terminal Gap Analysis – Airlines Remain

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Landside Requirements Summary

Source: Ricondo & Associates

15

• Full Airlines Remain– Terminal 1 

• Parking shortfall: 5,000 spaces by 2020; 12,000 spaces by 2035

• Shortfalls on both departures and arrivals curbs

– Terminal 2• Curb shortfall mid‐2020s

• Full Airlines Relocate– Terminal 1 

• Parking shortfall mid‐2020s• Arrival curb shortfall

– Terminal 2 • Parking shortfall: 8,500 spaces by 

2035• Curb shortfall

Facility Shortfall

Facility AdequacyT1 Landside Gap Analysis – Airlines Remain

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DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES

16

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Development Alternatives 

• Determining the practical capacity of the Terminal 1 Complex– Balancing airside, terminal, and landside capacity– Maintaining level‐of‐service standards– Considering alternatives in terms of:

• Constraints• Capabilities• Capital costs• Performance

– An incremental approach to the full Airlines Relocate scenario

17

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18

WORK IN PROGRESSAirlines Relocate Scenario Incremental 2035 Phase T1 Gate Concept 1• Concept Elements

– Parking Expansion– Outbound Roadway 

Realignment– Hotel Development– “Infield” De‐Icing Pad– Delta Maintenance 

Facility

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19

WORK IN PROGRESSAirlines Relocate Scenario Incremental 2035 Phase T1 Gate Concept 2• Concept Elements

– Parking Expansion with Infield Exit Plaza

– Outbound Roadway Realignment

– Hotel Development– “Infill” De‐Icing Pad– Delta Maintenance 

Building

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20

WORK IN PROGRESSAirlines Relocate Scenario Incremental 2035 Phase T1 Arrivals Curb Concept 1• Concept Elements

– Create “outer” public arrivals curb

– Relocate commercial vehicles

– Reconfigure/expand Ground Transportation Center

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21

WORK IN PROGRESSAirlines Relocate Scenario Incremental 2035 Phase T2 Gate Concept• Concept Elements

– 12 new gates– Terminal building infills– Curb extension

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Environmental Considerations• Noise Contours 

• 2014 Actual Condition (Baseline)• 2035 Recommended 

Development Condition• Air Quality• Water Quality• Climate Adaptation• Recycling/Reuse/Waste 

Reduction• Land Use Compatibility 

22

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STAKEHOLDER OUTREACH STRATEGY

23

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LTCP Stakeholder Outreach Strategy• Phase 1: Prior to Completion of 

Draft LTCP– Municipal Planning Departments

• Plan Commissions/City Councils if helpful

– Other External Stakeholders (FAA, MnDOT, Met Council, NOC)

– Internal Tenant Groups– Pre‐Draft Public Information 

Meeting• Targeting end of July

24

Agency/Group DateCompleted

Noise Oversight Committee (NOC) 03/18/2015 @ 1:30pmTerminal 2 Users Group 04/08/2015 @ 11:00amFAA 04/13/2015 @ 1:30pmCity of St. Paul Planning Staff 04/27/2015 @ 1:00pmCity of Bloomington Planning Staff 04/29/2015 @ 9:00amAirside Operations Staff 05/04/2015 @ 7:00amEngineers’ Society of St. Paul  05/12/2015 @ 12:00pmCity of Edina Planning Staff 05/12/2015 @ 3:00pmCity of Eagan Planning Staff 05/13/2015 @ 10:30amCustomer Service Action Council (CSAC) 05/14/2015 @ 10:00amCity of Richfield Planning Staff 05/18/2015 @ 9:00amCity of Mendota Heights Planning Staff 05/19/2015 @ 2:00pmMetropolitan Council Planning Staff 05/19/2015 @ 3:30pmCity of Apple Valley Planning Staff 05/20/2015 @ 9:00am

ScheduledNoise Oversight Committee (NOC) 05/20/2015 @ 1:30pmCity of Burnsville Planning Staff 05/26/2015 @ 1:30pmTerminal 1 AMC 06/17/2015 @ 2:00pmMendota Heights Airport Relations Commission 06/17/2015 @ 7:00pmSt. Paul Planning Commission 06/19/2015 @ 8:30amCity of St. Louis Park – Council Study Session 06/22/2015 @ 6:30pmMinneapolis Intergovernmental Relations Committee 06/25/2015 @ 1:30pm

Phase 1 Stakeholder Outreach Meetings

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LTCP Stakeholder Outreach Strategy

• Phase 2: Formal Draft LTCP Public Review – Written comment period (45 days)

• Targeting mid‐August through early October– Two (2) Public Information Meetings

• Targeting mid‐September

• Phase 3: LTCP Final Draft/Adoption – Additional stakeholder outreach as needed

25

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Adopt Final Plan

IncorporateFeedback intoFinal Plan

LTCP Timeline

JAN FEB MAY

Public Review

JANUARY  – JULY AUGUST ‐ SEPTEMBER OCTOBER  – DECEMBER 

StakeholderOutreach

StakeholderOutreach

26

Draft LTCP Report

EnvironmentalConsiderations

Recommended Development 

Program

DevelopmentAlternatives

FacilityRequirements

Forecasts

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Questions & Open Dialogue

27

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Noise Oversight CommitteeMay 20, 2015

Item 5Complaint Density Mapping

The 2015 NOC Work Plan includes a topic on Complaint Density Mapping.

Aircraft noise complaint data are summarized, mapped and published monthly in the Technical Advisor’s Report (pages 1 and 2).

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It is difficult to see complaint locations and land use features on the current map of complaint locations in the Technical Advisor’s Report.

Complaint Density Mapping(continued)

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A new complaint density map, using a grid, shows the density of residences submitting noise complaints. 

The colors on the map show the number of households (“Complainants”) submitting complaints and corresponds to the legend.

The percentage of total monthly complaint is labeled for each square.

The areas with no coloring or labels do not have any complaints.

Complaint Density Mapping(continued)

Note: The FAA has sole authority for determining where aircraft fly according to standard air traffic control procedures. Noise complaints are not considered when making these decisions.

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Requested Action

NOC COMMITTEE MEMBERS APPROVE THE NEW COMPLAINT DENSITY GRAPHIC TO REPLACE THE EXISTING COMPLAINT MAP ON PAGE 2 OF THE MONTHLY TECHNICAL ADVISOR’S REPORT, BEGINNING IN THE MAY 2015 REPORT.

Complaint Density Mapping(continued)

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Item 6Runway Use System Report

Noise Oversight CommitteeMay 20, 2015

The 2015 NOC Work Plan includes the development of a Runway Use System (RUS) Report. 

The proposed RUS Report begins with a description of the RUS and describes the factors that contribute to runway use determinations at MSP. 

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Airport runway configuration options are described and displayed:

Runway Use System Report(continued)

North Flow (N)Most efficient use of airspace

Straight North Flow (N*)

South Flow (S)

Straight South Flow (S*)

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Airport runway configuration options are described and displayed:

Runway Use System Report(continued)

Opposite Direction (O)

Mixed Flow A (MA)

Mixed Flow B (MB)

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A summary table of the monthly runway use  is provided for the following time periods: 

• All hours• MSP nighttime (10:30 p.m. –6:00 a.m.)

• Morning transition period (6:00 a.m. – 7:30 a.m.)

• Evening transition period (9:00 p.m. – 10:30 p.m.)

Runway Use System Report(continued)

Percent of all monthly arrivals

Percent of all monthly departures

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Additionally, a summary of the count and percent use of RUS high‐priority runways give a high‐level view of the preferred runway use.

Runway Use System Report(continued)

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Dynamic factors make it difficult to produce a cumulative monthly report, because they change so frequently.

The report appendix shows an hourly breakout of airport operations (takeoffs and landings), airport runway configuration changes, surface winds and winds aloft information for each day of the month.

Runway configuration and wind directions are labeled only where changes occur.

Runway Use System Report(continued)

Operations per hour

Surface winds by hour

Winds Aloft by hour

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Requested Action

NOC COMMITTEE MEMBERS APPROVE THE FORMAT OF THE MONTHLY MSP RUNWAY USE REPORT, REQUEST STAFF TO PRODUCE A MONTHLY REPORT, AND PUBLISH THE REPORT ON THE WWW.MACNOISE.COMWEBSITE.

Runway Use System Report(continued)

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Noise Oversight CommitteeMay 20, 2015

Item 7Review of the April 28, 2015 Public Input Meeting

On April 28, 2015 at 7:00 pm MAC Noise Program Office staff conducted the second quarter 2015 publicinput meeting at the Richfield Municipal Building, 6700 Portland Avenue South. Three people attended themeeting, two individuals made comments at the meeting. The comments and associated responses can befound on the MAC Noise Program’s website, at www.macnoise.com. Specifically, comments/questionsfocused on:

• Departure overflights west of the airport• Remote Monitoring Tower locations• Purpose and goals of the NOC

The next quarterly public input meeting is planned for July 28, 2015, 7:00 p.m., at the MAC General Offices.

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Noise Oversight CommitteeMay 20, 2015

Item 8FAA to Re‐Evaluate Method for Measuring Effects of Aircraft Noise

The FAA announced it will start surveying people living near airports in the next 2‐3 months to get a sense of how they feel about aircraft noise. 

It will be “the most comprehensive study using a single noise survey ever undertaken in the United States.” (FAA)

Communities around 20 US airports will be surveyed via mail and telephone. The FAA will not disclose which airports will be chosen.

They hope to finish gathering data by the end of 2016 and will then analyze the results to determine whether to update its methods for 

determining exposure to noise (current threshold set at 65 dB Day‐Night Average Sound Level). If changes are warranted, the FAA will propose 

revised policy and related guidance and regulations, subject to interagency coordination, as well as public review and comment.

The MAC noise program office will be publishing a news article on the www.macnoise.com website to share this information with the public.

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Noise Oversight CommitteeMay 20, 2015

Item 9

Public Comment Period

The next NOC Meeting is scheduled for July 22, 2015 at 1:30 p.m. at the MAC General Offices at 6040 28th Avenue South, Minneapolis.