non-state actors in sub-saharan africa 2007-2012 outlook
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Mercyhurst Intelligence Estimate. Non-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa 2007-2012 Outlook. Team Non-State Actors: Mark Blair Daniel McNulty Brittany Monteparte Andreea Neagu Adrienne Sluga. 12 November 2007. Agenda. Requirements Non-State Actor Key Findings Methodological Key Findings - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Non-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa 2007-2012 Outlook
Team Non-State Actors:Mark Blair
Daniel McNultyBrittany Monteparte
Andreea NeaguAdrienne Sluga
12 November 2007
Mercyhurst Intelligence Estimate
2
Agenda• Requirements
• Non-State Actor Key Findings
• Methodological Key Findings
• Guided Tour Of The Wiki
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Requirement• What role will non-state actors (NSAs) play and what impact
will NSAs have in Sub-Saharan Africa over the next five years?
– What is the likely importance of NSAs vs. State Actors, Supra-State Actors and other relevant categories of actors in Sub-Saharan Africa?
– What are the roles of these actors in key countries, such as Niger?
– Are there geographic, cultural, economic or other patterns of activity along which the roles of these actors are either very different or strikingly similar?
• What analytical processes and methodologies were applied to the questions above and which proved to be effective or ineffective?
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What Role Will Non-State Actors (NSAs) Play And What Impact Will NSAs Have In Sub-Saharan Africa Over The Next Five Years?
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Key Findings• NSAs, On Average, Likely Play A Limited Role In Sub-
Saharan Africa
• NSA Roles Unlikely To Change
• Even Split Between Current Government Sanctioned And Extra-Government Role Potentials
Government Sanctioned Role Potentials:
(e.g. Unions, Lobbyists, Privatization)
Extra-Government Role Potentials:
(e.g. Violence, Bribery, etc.)
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Key Findings
• Government Sanctioned Roles Likely To Moderately Increase Over The Next Five Years
• Extra-Government Roles Likely To See No Increase Within The Next Five Years
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What Is The Likely Importance Of NSAs Versus State Actors And Supra-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa?
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NSA Versus State Actors
• State Actors Likely To Have More Influence In Sub-Saharan Africa
• On Average, Government Control Likely To Stay The Same Within The Next Five Years
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• Two Supra-State Organizations Likely Have Significant Influence In Sub-Saharan Africa– European Union
– United Nations
• It Is Unlikely That They Will Impact The Role Of NSAs Now And In The Next Five Years
NSA Versus Supra-State Actors
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What Are The Roles Of Non-State Actors (NSAs) In Key Countries, Such As Niger?
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Key Countries
Current Role Role in 2012
Key Countries 0 1 GS
All Countries 0 0
• Angola, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Niger, Nigeria, And South Africa Likely Key Countries To US
– Strategic Locations– Military Importance – Vast Natural Resources
– Counterterrorism Initiatives
• NSAs Likely Play Little To No Role In Key Countries Currently And Over The Next Five Years
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Are There Geographic, Cultural, Economic Or Other Patterns Of Activity Along Which The Roles Of These Actors Are Either Very Different Or Strikingly Similar?
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MAURITANIA1-EG NIGER
2-EG
MALI2-GS
SUDAN2-EG
CHAD4-EG
ETHIOPIA1-GS
ERITREA2-EG
DJIBOUTI1-EG
SOMALIA5-EGKENYA
2-GS/EG
TANZANIA2-GS
MADAGASCAR2-GSMOZAMBIQUE
1-GS
SWAZILAND1-GSLESOTHO
2-GS
S. AFRICA4-GS
NAMIBIA3-GS BOTSWANA
4-GS
ZIMBABWE2-EG
MALAWI1-GS
ZAMBIA1-GS
ANGOLA1-EG
DROC3-EG
REP. OF CONGO3-EG
GABON
2-GS
SAO TOME & PRINCIPE1-GS
BENIN
2-GS
EQUATORIAL GUINEA2-EG
TOGO2-EG
GH
AN
A2-
GS
NIGERIA1-EG
CA
MER
OO
N1-
EG
CENTRALAFRICAN REP.
4-EG
COTE D’IVOIRE
2-EG
SIERRA LEONE2-EG
LIBERIA3-EG
GUINEA3-EG
GUINEA-BISSAU2-EG
THE GAMBIA1-GS
SENEGAL2-GS
CAPE VERDE2-GS
UGANDA
2-G
S
BURKINA
FASO 2-EG
RWANDA1-GS/EG
BURUNDI
2-EG
COMOROS1-GS
SEYECHELLES2-GS
MAURITIUS4-GS
Government Sanctioned Role Potentials
Extra-GovernmentRole Potentials
Overall NSA Role Scores
NoRole
MultipleSignificant
Roles
MultipleSignificant
Roles
5 2 1 2 3 4 54 3 10
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• Southern And Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa:
– Region Likely Influenced By Government Sanctioned NSAs
– Government Sanctioned NSAs Likely To Increase Influence Over Next Five Years
Southern And Eastern Region
5 2 1 2 3 4 54 3 10
Government Sanctioned Role
Potentials
Extra-GovernmentRole Potentials
Overall NSA Role Scores
NoRole Multiple
SignificantRoles
MultipleSignificant
Roles
Patterns Of Activity: Geographic
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• Central Sub-Saharan Africa:
– Region Likely Influenced By Extra-Government NSAs
– NSA Role Unlikely To Change Over Next Five Years
Central Region
5 2 1 2 3 4 54 3 10
Government Sanctioned Role
Potentials
Extra-GovernmentRole Potentials
Overall NSA Role Scores
NoRole Multiple
SignificantRoles
MultipleSignificant
Roles
Patterns Of Activity: Geographic
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• Western Sub-Saharan Africa
– NSAs Likely Play A Wide Variety Of Roles
– No Clear Trends
Western Region
5 2 1 2 3 4 54 3 10
Government Sanctioned Role
Potentials
Extra-GovernmentRole Potentials
Overall NSA Role Scores
NoRole Multiple
SignificantRoles
MultipleSignificant
Roles
Patterns Of Activity: Geographic
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Patterns Of Activity: NSA Correlations
• It Is Likely That Certain Types Of NSAs Support Each Other
– Strong Correlation Between NGOs And Businesses (.86)
• Terrorist Groups More Represented In Countries With More State Control
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Methodology
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Key Findings
• It Is Likely That Multiple Methods Of Analysis Create High Confidence And Prove Highly Efficient
• The Fundamental Method – Role Potential Spectrum– Government Sanctioned And Extra-Government Role
Potentials
– Represents Likely Role Potentials of Lawful And Unlawful NSAs
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NSA Role Potential Spectrum
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Analysis Of Competing Hypothesis (ACH)
• Provided Confidence In A Specific Country’s Role Potential Score
• Looked At Other Factors Score Might Not Consider
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Geospatial Analysis• Confirmed Geographic Patterns In Four Separate Indices With
Regards To NGOS, Businesses, And Terrorist Groups
NGOs In Sub-Saharan Africa
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Visualization• It Is Likely That Visualization Of The Data Allows For
Patterns To Be Easily Visible
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Wiki Information
• Login Wikispaces:– www.wikispaces.com– Username: billreynolds– Password: reynolds
• E-mail: – [email protected]– Password: burkinafaso11
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Thank You
• Contact Information– Mark Blair: [email protected]– Dan McNulty: [email protected]– Brittany Monteparte: [email protected]– Andreea Neagu: [email protected]– Adrienne Sluga: [email protected]