non-transmission alternatives process the...
TRANSCRIPT
Hantz A. Présumé Principal EngineerSystem Planning
July 30, 2015
Non-transmission Alternatives
Process
The Vermont Experience
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Overview of Vermont
• Small, rural state, ~625K pop.• 17 distribution utilities
– 1 investor-owned– 2 cooperatives– 14 municipals
• VELCO is the statewide transmission-only entity owned by the distribution utilities (73%) and a public benefit corporation (27%) VLITE
• The VT distribution utilities own generation while the rest of New England has divested
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The Vermont Transmission Grid738 miles of transmission55 substations and switching stationsTies to NY, MA, NH, and Canada
225 MW HVDC Converter to Canada1 STATCOM, 4 Phase Shifting Transformers & 4 Synchronous CondensersVermont is dual peaking
Summer and Winter peak loads vary between 1000 MW and 1050 MWThe Vermont load is roughly 4% of the region’s load
Minimal generation and no true base load units
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ISO-NE is the Planning Authority for New England
• ISO-NE publishes an annual regional system plan– Includes a description of proposed regulated transmission
solutions– Provides sufficient information to allow Market Participants to
propose a market response to identified system needs• ISO-NE NTA studies do not evaluate NTA solution costs nor
feasibility, simply location and amount• Transmission solutions designated as regional benefit
upgrades are funded regionally• Market response solutions are funded by the sponsor
• The FERC authorized ISO-NE to perform three critical roles– Operate the power system, administer the
markets, and conduct power system planning for the region
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Vermont planning policy
Favors least-cost solution (wires or non-wires), and requires collaborative planning & stakeholder engagement
• Legislation (30 V.S.A. § 218c)– Required a 10-year transmission plan at least every three years beginning July
1, 2006, including public outreach process– Goal: Identify potential need for transmission system improvements as early as
possible, in order to allow sufficient time to plan and implement more cost-effective nontransmission alternatives to meet reliability needs, wherever feasible.
• PSB Docket 7081 established stakeholder process through negotiated settlement– Created Vermont System Planning Committee (VSPC)—statewide reliability
planning stakeholder body– Requires 20-year long-range transmission plan– Goal: Full, fair and timely consideration of cost-effective non-transmission
alternatives
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2012 Plan included map roughlydepicting relative benefit to transmission grid of new generation or load reductions by location• Color coding very rough, drawn by
hand
Zones of benefit based onISO-NE VT/NH NTA analysis
Benefits much more precisely analyzed in context of full NTA studies
Provided geo-targeting guidance to stakeholders in 2012
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Vermont NTA analysis process
• Step 1: Screening– All projects are screened during the Long-Range Plan
development using adopted NTA screening tool to determine whether• the problem can be addressed by an NTA in practical terms• there is enough time to implement the NTA• the scale of the NTA would not be too large• the potential savings is worth conducting a more detailed analysis
• Step 2: Full NTA analysis if “screened in”– More detailed analysis evaluating feasibility and relative costs of
NTA resources.– Design the NTA to meet the performance requirements at the
lowest cost• Summer vs winter, on standby or running, short or long duration, etc.
See screening tools at: http://www.vermontspc.com/about/key-documents
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Study tools
• VELCO planning engineers utilize power flow software (PSSE, PSLF) to translate typical study results (% overloads and voltage violations) into data inputs to an NTA study
• Consultant or the NTA study group utilizes proprietary software or Excel workbook tool to evaluate the net cost of alternative resource configurations (ARC)– Several ARCs can be developed in an attempt to create
cost profiles that are better than individual resources– May include hybrid ARCs combining transmission and
NTA solutions• ISO-NE planning engineers utilize PSSE to test
the effectiveness of proposed market responses
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The steps of a full NTA analysis
• VELCO provides information that would be useful to an NTA sponsor– Amount and location of the reliability gap– Timing of the need and longevity requirement based on the growth
rate of the reliability gap– Availability requirement and expected run time
• Whether the reliability concern exists under normal conditions or emergency conditions
• A description of the potential duration and frequency of these conditions• NTA analysis is performed by a study group
– Collaborative process including affected DUs, possibly an NTA consultant, and any interested member of the VSPC, e.g. Public Service Department, Energy Efficiency utility, and generation developers
– Study group seeks input from known energy stakeholders at various stages of the analysis
• Result is NTA is cost-effective and feasible, or not– If no, transmission is pursued– If yes, the NTA solution is proposed to ISO-NE for consideration
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Conditions for ISO-NE consideration of market responses
• Market responses need to have been proposed with some form of obligation that they will perform– Have cleared the Forward Capacity Market (FCM)– Have been selected in, and are contractually bound by, a
state-sponsored RFP, or– Have a financially binding obligation pursuant to a
contract• Only then will ISO-NE incorporate and update
information regarding resources modeled in a subsequent Needs Assessment– Resources are funded by the sponsor/developer
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An example of how the process worksLate 2011: ISO-NE publishes preliminary study showing system concerns in Central VT
Late 2011: DUs & VELCO form study group per VT formal non-transmission alternatives (NTA) process to resolve
April 2012: ISO-NE Solutions Study proposes transmission upgrades to resolve Central VT concerns
At this point, without VT NTA study requirement, atransmission solution would likely have been implemented
Nov 2012: GMP & VELCO present study group results to ISO-NE showing potential for a minor NTA supplemented by existing state energy efficiency and distributed generation programs to postpone Central VT upgrades
Early 2013: ISO-NE reassesses need for Central VT upgrades
Summer 2013: ISO-NE study confirms $157 million Central VT upgrade deferral based on a lower load forecast and resources from the FCM
Verm
ont
Reg
iona
l
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When EE and expected PV resources applied to gap, transmission upgrade no longer needed
(50.0)
(40.0)
(30.0)
(20.0)
(10.0)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
Coincident MW
C-CR Effective MW
C-CR Margin
CR-NR Margin
The remaining gap from 2012 to 2019 could be met by temporary and declining demand response programs
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Observations about VT example & process
• EE plays a big role but fills the gap in combinationwith other resources, which are growing rapidly
• Integrated look at DG & EE is critical: no one element caused the result
• Project need is based on forecast, which has many assumptions; could change rapidly in volatile times; regular reassessment needed
• Benefits of a robust stakeholder process:– Regulatory certainty– Stakeholder buy-in– A little more certainty of the need
• Biggest policy issue: – Networked transmission is funded regionally, but NTAs or
market responses are funded by the project sponsor