Henrik Lundstedt Swedish Institute of Space Physics

in Lund, Sweden

Solar Storms and Space Weather

Extreme solar storm 23 July 2012 - On farside.!A week earlier it should have been Earth directed!

and caused severe damages to society!

Outline!Solar Storms and Space Weather

Solar storms - General observed properties. - Why do we have solar storms? Space Weather - General and in Nordic countries.

! MSB Founded Research Project - Goal (days ahead reliable warnings of extreme solar storms that can cause severe damages of important functions of the society) ! Extreme solar storms - 1921, 1982, 2003 and 2012 - Key research questions - Warnings - Swedish Space Weather Center of ISES, IRF - Information, users ! Today’s space weather - this morning!

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

Solar flares

Electromagnetic radiation that can affect Earth within 8 min. Energy: ~1018kWh (~1025J) (corresponding to USA energy demand during 40 000 years! Other sun like stars 1000 times Carrington (=X50?) flares have been observed.

SOHO

Solar Storms - General Observed Properties

Mass(plasma) ejection of 5-50 billion ton with velocities between 200-3400km/s. The fastest arrived at Earth 14.6 hours. Shocks CME produced can accelerate protons to 10 -100MeV energies, arriving in about an hour. The most intense observed proton event reached 43,000 pfu 23/03/1991. Only the magnetic energy (~1025J) is large enough to drive a CME.

Why Do We Have Solar Storms?

When the twist of the magnetic field (Tw) > 2π then the flux tube becomes Kink unstable

Solar storms in the corona reduce the magnetic field complexity in the corona by untangle it (solar flares) or transporting it away (CMEs).

Solar Flare CME

Topology bounds the energy to be released.

+-

Solar Observations We Need - All The Time, Whole Sun

P.I.s of SDO: !A.Title (AIA/Lockheed), P. Scherer (HMI/Stanford) and T. Woods (EVE/CU)

SDO launched 11 February 2010

SDO sends down , to the Ka-band radio antennas near Las Cruces , New Mexico, 150 Mbits / s data 24 hours a day, seven days a week. It is 50 times more scientific data than any other mission in NASA's history. Every 0.75 s SDO takes images with 10 times higher resolution than high-definition television . Every 10s Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA ) produce images and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms and Dopplergrams and Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) data.

Space Weather: Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), Geomagnetic Storms, Aurora and Geomagnetic Induced Currents (GIC)

Aurora in Denmark, 11 October 2010

CME leaving the Sun Interacting with Earth Reconnection in front Reconnection in the!plasmatail

Particles accelerated!down the poles!producing polar!

light

polar light (aurora)Aurora oval!1 million Ampere current flowing

Main space weather problem!in Nordic countries

Satellite anomalies

Deep-Space Missions:Mars Odyssey orbiter, ACE and SOHO, Startdust,SMART-1, Mars Express: Earth Orbiting Spacecraft:59% missions experienced effects. $640 million ADEOS-2 spacecraft was damaged. US defense couldn’t carry out satellite operations

GPS problems

During 15 hours on October 29th and 11 hours on October 30th the GPS WAAS couldn’t be used. No surveys or oil drillings were possible. TEC increased 30% on October 28th.

HF communication

problems

Polar flights were not carried out due to communication problems. MacRay radio had during 130 hours no communication with scientists at Arctic.

Radiation problems

Astronautes onboard ISS had to take precautionary shelter.

Polar lightsNorthern Light (Aurora) was seen at Mediterranean latitude, Southern California and Southern light in Australia.

GIC problems Malmö, in Sweden, experienced a blackout on October 30th due to strong GICs.

Space Weather Effects during the

Halloween Events in 2003

• How often do they occur? • How to obtain a measure and model an extreme solar storm? • How to forecast them days ahead?

Key Questions

about “Extreme Solar Storms” !that we address in our research project funded by MSB

Extreme Solar Storms in 1921, 1982, 2003 and 2012

May 15, 14:25 (Kvistaberg, Uppsala)

Dst = -900 nT dB/dt of ~5000nT/min!

Southern polar lights observed on Apia Samoa

Reference: Baker,D., et al., 2013; Kappenman, J. G., 2006; !Lundstedt, H., 2012; NOAA Mem., 2004.

Simulated MW magnetogram

May 1921

aa

!X28 solar flare and

CME 4 November 2003

Medium solar!cycle -Three !years after max.

Weak solar cycle - Four years after max

Weak!solar cycle!

at max

On 23 July 2012 a CME was ejected from solar farside with a velocity of ~3000 km/s ! according to STEREO. Estimated Dst ≈-1182nT. Larger than 1859 Carrington event!

Farside

Medium solar!cycle -Three !years after max.

Dst = - 328 nT (14/7) dB/dt of (13-14/7) 2600 nT/min!

13 July 1982

Topological Torus Model of Extreme Solar Storms

Simulated daily Mount Wilson magnetograms of May1921 using four tori cuts.

HARP Region 3169 (NOAA 121092)! 17 October - 27 October 2014

E13

X class 3.1 solar flare!

24 October 23:41

Solar flares• 26 M-flares • 6 X-flares

Earth-directed!CMEs• 0 !

24 October !HMI/AIA/SDO

X1.1 X1.6 X3.1 X1.0 X2.0

E13 W22 W37

X2.027Oct

W57E64

SDO/HMI Tracked AR (HARP)!2014/10/26!

10:00

HARP Region 3281 (old 3169)! 14 November - 24 November 2014

E13

Solar flares• 4 M-flares • 0 X-flares

Earth-directed!CMEs• 0 !

16 November !HMI/AIA/SDO

SDO/HMI Tracked AR (HARP)!2014/11/24!

13:00

M5.7 class solar flare!

16 November

RWC-Sweden (Swedish Space Weather Center) of ISES,!of Swedish Institute of Space Physics (IRF)

http://src.irf.se

London Graz

ISES Meeting 2013, Boulder, Colorado

Real-time solar wind data at L1 from ACE.

Replaced by DSCOVR 2016

Forecasts Based on Real-time Measurements at L1

List of Users of Service and Information !from RWC-Sweden

Regular users!!1. Myndigheten för Samhällsskydd och Beredskap (MSB) ! - TiB - Tjänsteman i Beredskap.!2. Svenska Kraftnät (SvK) – “Avsiktsförklaring om ! informationsutbyte och köp av tjänster vid förhöjd ! solaktivitet”.!3. Swedish Armed Forces METOC Centre, Enköping.!4. International Space Environment Service (ISES) med! 16 regionala varningscentra (RWCs).!5. ESA VISPANET, Eta max.!6. ESA Redu, Belgien.!7. EU SpaceCast. Projektledare R. Horne, Cambridge, UK.!8. EU, EURISGIC.!9. DH Consultancy, Belgien.!10. Mullard Space Science Laboratory (MSSL), UCL,UK.

Occasional users!!1. Kärnkraftverk Forsmark 3.!2. Kärnkraftverk OKG, Eon.!3. Trafikverket (Banverket) – inverkan på signalsystem.!4. Sjö- och luftfartsavdelningen, Transportstyrelsen,! Inspektör flygtrafik.!5. FOI, Linköping, finansierat projektet “Testtjänster för ! rymdväder”.!6. Polisen i Göteborg.!7. Lantmäteriet om GPS påverkan.!8. Universitet och tekniska högskolor (examensarbeten) ! i Sverige (information).!9. Media: SVT, TV4, TV6, 3-SAT, ZDF, SR, Norsk radio,! Rymdkanalen, Sydsvenskan, DN, SvD, NyTeknik, ! Allt om Rymden osv.!10. Allmänheten (brevduveföreningar), skolelever.

International users 5-9 notify us immediately!if the service is down. For them the service is critical.

With our new website !“Swedish Space Weather Center” (RWC-Sweden) src.irf.se !

we can better follow the users of our service.

A Solar Storm on 10 September 2014!Big in Media but no Extreme Storm

X1.6,17:45UT Sep. 10 CME V≈800km/s

Message to MSB and SvK (=interested Kp>≈5) - no or minor effects Uppsala 30-min max |dB/dt|= 48nT/min 17.21 UT

Kp 7!G3

Auroras !Netherland

Auroras !Denmark

max!≈100pfu

Sep 13 07.45 am Sep 13 03.41 am Abisko Sep 13 08.46 am

Auroras !Sweden

SVT

The End - Thank You!

15 oktober

20 oktober 20 oktober

Today’s Solar Storms and Space Weather