norman t.l. chan chief executive hong kong monetary authority bauhinia - chatham house research...
TRANSCRIPT
Norman T.L. Chan
Chief ExecutiveHong Kong Monetary Authority
Bauhinia - Chatham HouseBauhinia - Chatham HouseResearch ConferenceResearch Conference
Hong Kong's Development Hong Kong's Development as the Offshore RMB as the Offshore RMB
Business CentreBusiness Centre
13 June 201113 June 2011
2
China’s Growth Story :China’s Growth Story :World’s Second Largest EconomyWorld’s Second Largest Economy
201020001979
5,879
1,198
261
In US$ bn
China’s Growth Story :China’s Growth Story :World’s Second Largest Trading Nation World’s Second Largest Trading Nation
2000
USUS
ASEANASEAN
Western Western
EuropeEurope
Latin AmericaLatin America
264167
138154
283102
9291
JapanJapan29 37
121177
5222
1722
China’s
Exports
China’s China’s
ImportsImports
2010
3
Eastern Eastern
EuropeEurope
Central Central
AsiaAsia
1614
5 7
4242
13
369
11
(In US$ bn)
4
China’s Growth Story :China’s Growth Story :Contributing 35% of Global Economic Growth Contributing 35% of Global Economic Growth
by 2015by 2015
China: 35%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2005 2010 2015*
China BRICS ex China Emerging Asia US Euro zone Japan Others
Share of Global Growth 2000 – 2015
* IMF projections
5
Mainland China’s Trade in 2010 : US$ 3 trillion
Hong Kong’s Intermediary Role Hong Kong’s Intermediary Role in China’s Tradein China’s Trade
Hong KongHong Kong
Re-export
trade with
Hong Kong
US$ 436bn
Hong Kong’s
Offshore
trade
US$ 422bn
5
30% Intermediated through HK : US $ 858 billion30% Intermediated through HK : US $ 858 billion
6
Hong Kong as Gateway for Investing in ChinaHong Kong as Gateway for Investing in China
70
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USD bn
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
FDI from other places
FDI from HK
China’s Foreign Direct Investments (FDI)USD bn
7
Hong Kong as Gateway for China’s Hong Kong as Gateway for China’s Overseas Direct InvestmentsOverseas Direct Investments
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USD bn
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70USD bn
ODI to other places
ODI to HK
China’s Overseas Direct Investments (ODI)
8
Hong Kong as Overseas Fund Raising Centre Hong Kong as Overseas Fund Raising Centre for Mainland Companiesfor Mainland Companies
Hong Kong Stock Market :
Fund Raising by Mainland Companies
1993-2010 : USD380 bn in total
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Other fund raising activities
IPOs
USD bn USD bn
9
Internationalisation of RMB :Internationalisation of RMB :A New Era for China’s Growth StoryA New Era for China’s Growth Story
China’s trade settled in RMB since 2009
1H 2010 : 0.7% 2H 2010 : 4% 1Q 2011 : 7%
New rules promulgated in January 2011 to allow use of
RMB in China’s ODI
RMB FDI allowed on case-by-case basis (new rules
under consideration)
Permission granted to offshore monetary authorities
and banks in Hong Kong to access Mainland RMB
interbank bond market
RMB QFII under consideration
10
Hong Kong as Offshore RMB Centre Hong Kong as Offshore RMB Centre for Asia and Beyondfor Asia and Beyond
2010
China’s RMB trade settlement:
RMB 506 bn yuan
1Q 2011
China’s RMB trade settlement:
RMB 360 bn yuan
73% handled by
banks in Hong Kong
RMB 370 bn yuan
86% handled by
banks in Hong Kong
RMB 311 bn yuan
11
Hong Kong as Offshore RMB Centre Hong Kong as Offshore RMB Centre for Asia and Beyondfor Asia and Beyond
Corporate customersCorporates incorporated
overseas = 16%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
RMB bn
2009 2010 2011
RMB bn
Personal customers
12
Hong Kong as Offshore RMB Centre Hong Kong as Offshore RMB Centre for Asia and Beyondfor Asia and Beyond
China Development BankChina Export and Import BankBank of ChinaVTB (Russian commercial bank)
World BankAsian Development BankInternational Finance Corporation
Recent Issuers :
Banks
VolkswagenUnileverCaterpillar
Corporations
International organisations
2007
2008
2009
2010
Jan-May2011
RMB Bond Issues in Hong Kong
10 bn by 3 issuers
12 bn by 4 issuers
16 bn by 4 issuers
36 bn by 16 issuers
28 bn by 28 issuers
McDonald’sHopewell Highways
UBSANZHSBC
China’s Growth Story and Hong Kong’s Role :China’s Growth Story and Hong Kong’s Role :The FutureThe Future
RMB internationalisation signifies a New Era of
rapid growth in China’s trade and investment links
with the world
RMB internationalisation signifies a New Era of
rapid growth in China’s trade and investment links
with the world
Hong Kong is part of China’s growth story in this
New Era
Hong Kong is part of China’s growth story in this
New Era
AND