north carolina competitiveness · the punch job change 1990 to 2012 182,905 16,530 92,531 86,962...

North Carolina Competitiveness

NC

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“Everyone has a plan ‘till they get hit in the mouth” Mike Tyson

The Punch Job Change 1990 to 2012

182,905

16,530

92,531 86,962

30,685

6,119 8,338

30,229

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

Textiles Tobacco App/Cut Sew Furniture

1990

2012

Source: NCESC.com

The loss of about 80% of our traditional manufacturing jobs

NC Employment Changes By Sector 2000-2012

1%

-9%

-30% -26%

-42%

3%

0%

-13% -18%

18%

1%

35% 27%

40%

28% 28%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Total

Agricu

lture

Min

ing

Co

nstru

ction

Man

ufactu

ring

Wh

olesale

Retail

Trans/W

are

Info

Finan

ce/Ins

Real Estate

Pro

f/Tech

Edu

cation

Health

Art/En

ter

Acco

m/Fo

od

Source: QCEW County Sector Data

Employees on nonfarm payrolls by state and selected industry sector, seasonally adjusted

NC Employment Growth

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source:NCESC.com Jan Annual Employment

Prosperity Zone Comparisons Total Job Growth 2000-2012

-1.8%

-21.4%

5.4%

-9.9%

9.2%

-2.6% -0.9%

6.4%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8


NC Real GDP By Industry 2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1% 3%

18%

11%

3% 4%

22%

10%

1%

7%

3% 2%

15%

5% 4%

11% 13%

5% 4%

20%

11%

1%

7%

3% 2%

14%

NC South

Source: Georgetown Public Policy Institute,

Carnevale and Smith, July 2012

Prosperity Zone Comparisons Total Manufacturing Growth 2000-2012

-46.7%

-53.1%

-41.4%

-46.1%

-33.8% -36.4%

-42.6%

-25.4%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8


Southern States 1-Year Employment Changes August 2012 to August 2013

0.7%

1.0%

1.8%

2.3%

1.2%

2.0%

1.7%

1.4%

1.9%

1.7%

0.6%

1.9%

1.2%

2.5%

0.9% 1.0%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV

Source: U.S. BLS, Nov, 2013 Measured Aug 2012- Aug 2013

Southern States 1-Year Employment Changes

13,300

12,200

131,400

91,600

21,300 38,900

43,300

36,600 20,400

66,700

9,800

35,200 32,200

274,700

33,300

7,600

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Source: U.S. BLS, Dec, Measured May 2012 to May 2013

Southern States Per Capita Income 1990-2012 (% Different from Nation Change)

7.5%

20.5%

-13.0% -10.7%

7.5%

39.2%

8.5%

1.5%

31.5%

-5.1%

22.0%

-4.3%

6.7%

19.7%

11.2%

18.2%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


Source: bber, University of New Mexico

U.S. Change 120.6% Inflation 73%

NC Per Capita Income Compared to U.S. 1990-2012

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

United States

NC

Source: bber, University of New Mexico

Southern States Real Personal Income Change 2011

1.6%

2.6%

2.2%

3.0%

2.6%

2.1%

2.5%

1.7%

1.3%

2.7%

4.1%

1.9% 2.1%

4.3%

2.9%

2.2%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%


Source: BLS, June 2013

U.S. Change 2.7%

Southern States Private Sector GDP Growth 2000-2011

15.4% 17.1%

18.3%

9.7% 10.0%

16.1%

24.4%

5.8%

9.7%

17.9%

20.9%

10.7%

16.8%

30.7%

25.1%

7.7%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%


Source: BEA July 2013

Southern States Manufacturing GDP Growth 2000-2011

3.2%

-2.7%

0.9%

-1.2%

0.5%

5.4%

2.4%

-1.9%

0.5%

2.9%

1.4%

0.0%

1.8%

7.9%

0.5%

-2.2%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%


Source: BEA July 2013

GDP/Capita Changes in the NC 1997-2011

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

NC USA

Source: BEA, Oct 2012

Major Global Trends Impacting Competitiveness

Urbanization We Are Becoming A World Where

People Live in Urban Regions

U.S. Population Concentration Metro-Non-Metro

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Metro Non-Metro

Source: Census

80%

Almost 60% of US population lives in Cities

of 1 million or more

In 2012 over 90% of GDP and 86% of all jobs are in metropolitan areas

Southern States % of Population Rural 2010

41% 44%

9%

25%

42%

27%

13%

30%

51%

34% 34% 34% 34%

15%

25%

51%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Source: U.S. Census 2010

NC Gross State Product 2011

Charlotte 25%

Piedmont Triad 14%

Research Triangle 23%

Wilmington 3%

Hickory 3%

Asheville 3%

Fayetteville 4%

Other Metros 6%

Non-Metro 19%

Source: IHS Global Insight, 2013

2013 Ranking for NC Metropolitan and Metropolitan Statistical Areas

Of 366 Metropolitan Areas Top Third (7) Middle Third (3) Bottom Third (4)

Of 576 Micropolitan Areas Top Third (8) Middle Third (4) Bottom Third (14)

Source: Policom.com, 2013

Economic Strength Rankings 2013 (NC)

(Annual Rank of the 366 Metro Areas)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Charlotte

Raleigh

Durham

Fayetteville

Wilmington

Winston-Salem

Greensboro

Asheville

Hickory

Source: Policom Corporation, 2013

Global Interdependence

State Goods Exports Per Capita 2012

$4,049

$2,584

$3,437 $3,618

$5,043

$13,724

$2,002 $2,310

$3,946

$2,948

$1,724

$5,345 $4,821

$10,183

$2,228

$6,124

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000


Source:2010-2012 data from U.S. Census and Foreign Trade

Technology

McKinsey & Company Disruptive Technologies: May 2013

Energy Mobile Internet

Advanced Materials Next Generation Genomics

Robotics, Cloud, Digital-intelligence, 3D Printing

State Technology and Science Index 2012

30

49

38

26

45 44

2

29

50

21

40 43

35

19

6

48

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50


Source: Milken Institute April 2013

79 Indicators in R &D, Risk Capital, Entrepreneurial infrastructure, Human Capital, Tech and Science Workforce, and Tech Concentration and Dynamism

North Carolina Component Rankings of the 50 States

25

25

23

26

10

0 10 20 30 40 50

R &D

Risk Capital

Human Capital

Tech & Science Workforce

Tech Concentration


North Carolina Component Rankings of the 50 States 2010 & 2013

21

25

25

23

26

10

13

16

8

26

15

11

0 10 20 30 40 50

Overall

R &D

Risk Capital

Human Capital

Tech & Science Workforce

Tech Concentration


The Talent Bar

US Adults Years School Completed

76%

14%

5% 5%

31% 37%

15% 17% 13%

31% 26%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Less than HS HS Grad Some College BA plus

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

In 1980, 32% had some college & 17% BA In 2010, 56% some college & 30% BA

Degree –Attainment Rate By Southern State 2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%


32%

28%

37% 36%

30% 28%

45%

36%

30%

38%

32%

35%

32% 34%

44%

26%

Source: Lumina Foundation, March 2012

Source: Economicmodeling, Joshua Wright, Oct 3, 2013

Southern States Percentage of New Jobs 2010-2013 Paying Middle Wage

16.0%

18.0% 17.0%

22.0%

30.0% 29.0%

22.0%

17.0%

10.0%

22.0%

32.0%

29.0%

24.0% 25.0%

14.0%

19.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%


Source: The Atlantic, Joshua Wright, Oct, 2013

Southern States Percentage of People Living Below the Poverty Rate

15.9%

19.0% 19.5%

17.0%

19.1% 19.1%

20.4%

10.1%

15.8%

22.6%

17.9% 17.2%

18.9% 18.3% 18.5%

11.5%

18.6%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV

Source: US Census, American Fact Finder, July 2013

PERCENT OF PEOPLE BELOW POVERTY LEVEL IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED)

Southern States Percentage of People Living Below the Poverty Rate 1983 (Blue) & 2013 (Red)

15%

23% 22%

15%

19% 18%

22%

27%

16% 17%

21% 20%

11%

16%

19% 20%

17%

19% 19% 20%

23%

18% 17%

19% 18%

12%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN VA

Source: US Census, American Fact Finder, July

2013,SGPB Profile of the South, 1986

PERCENT OF PEOPLE BELOW POVERTY LEVEL IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED)

Southern States Housing Price Appreciation Last 5 Years

-6.8%

-0.4%

-15.9%

-10.1%

0.6%

3.3%

-8.5%

-5.0% -5.1%

-8.0%

5.7%

-7.9%

-2.1%

9.8%

-2.6%

-0.2%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%


Source: FHFA Price Index, period ending 06/2013

Southern States Housing Price Appreciation Last 12 month

2.4% 2.1%

10.5% 10.8%

1.9%

5.1% 4.7%

3.3%

4.7% 5.1% 5.3%

3.2%

4.7%

6.7%

5.3%

2.9%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%


Source: FHFA Price Index, period ending 06/2013

Today’s Persistent New Reality The economy changed

The competition changed

Locational factors changed

The U.S. workforce has changed

The talent demands changed

Life cycles have changed

Tools have changed

Customer (talent & companies) demands/expectations changed

The pace of change and everything else changed

Recommendations Align activities around a common plan, measure

everything

Decide on a spatial strategy

Build great cities

Focus on education-job skills alignment

Increase workforce training capacity at the Community Colleges with a goal of national differentiation

Focus on growth clusters where we currently have a competitive advantage

Recommendations

Global is where the growth is, increase trade resources and grow export base (more companies exporting more to more places)

Double down on the military, understand the military future

Tell a compelling story

Aspire for NC to be a U.S. leader in Economic Development thinking, innovation, and execution

[email protected]

north carolina competitiveness · the punch job change 1990 to 2012 182,905 16,530 92,531 86,962...

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