north carolina house bill 819

North Carolina House Bill 819Did NC Make Sea Level Rise Illegal?

April 28, 2011House Bill Passed

(e)The Division of Coastal Management shall be the only State agency authorized to develop rates of sea-level rise and shall do so only at the request of the Commission. These rates shall only be determined using historical data, and these data shall be limited to the time period following the year 1900. Rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated linearly to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise.

http://www.nccoast.org/uploads/documents/CRO/2012-5/SLR-bill.pdf

What is in NC House Bill 819?


April 28, 2011House Bill Passed

(e)The Division of Coastal Management shall be the only State agency authorized to develop rates of sea-level rise and shall do so only at the request of the Commission. These rates shall only be determined using historical data, and these data shall be limited to the time period following the year 1900. Rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated linearly to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise.



June 12, 2011Senate Bill Passed

(c) The Coastal Resources Commission shall be the only State agency authorized to define rates of sea-level rise for regulatory purposes… Historic rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise unless such rates are from statistically significant, peer-reviewed data and are consistent with historic trends.

http://d20b91ibeoos7k.cloudfront.net/static/billtext/40499.pdf

http://d20b91ibeoos7k.cloudfront.net/static/billtext/40499.pdf

August 3, 2011Bill Becomes Law

(c) Nothing in this section shall be construed to prohibit a county, municipality, or other local government entity from defining rates of sea-level change for regulatory purposes.

(e) The Commission shall be the only State agency authorized to define rates of sea-level change for regulatory purposes.

SECTION 2.(b) The Coastal Resources Commission …shall not define rates of sea-level change for regulatory purposes prior to July 1, 2016.http://d20b91ibeoos7k.cloudfront.net/static/billtext/40900.pdf

Sea Level Rise. NC-20, n.d. Web. 21 Nov. 2012. <http://www.nc-20.com/sealevelrise.htm>.

Who Sponsored House Bill 819?

Sea Level Rise. NC-20, n.d. Web. 21 Nov. 2012. <http://www.nc-20.com/sealevelrise.htm>.

What does NC-20 think about Sea Level Rise?

Sea Level Bill Would Allow North Carolina to Stick Its Head in the Sand. US News, n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. <http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/06/01/ sea-level-bill-would-allow-north-carolina-to-stick-its-head-in-the-sand>.

David Burton offers one reason for alarmist predictions about N.C. sea level rise. YouTube, n.d. Web. 21 Nov. 2012. <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxLHCXah-6o>.

YouTube VideoDavid Burton offers one reason for alarmist predictions about N.C. sea level rise

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxLHCXah-6o

Maps of lands vulnerable to sea level rise: modeled elevations along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Office of Atmospheric Programs, US EPA, n.d. Web. 20 Nov. 2012. <http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr/18/c018p205>.

Maps of lands vulnerable to sea level rise: modeled elevations along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Office of Atmospheric Programs, US EPA, n.d. Web. 20 Nov. 2012. <http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr/18/c018p205>.

~1,000 sq mi of NC is under 1.5m

North Carolina. Wikipedia, n.d. Web. 20 Nov. 2012. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ North_Carolina>.

Area of NC is 53,819 sq mi

2%

NC - HB 819. Vote Smart, n.d. Web. 21 Nov. 2012. <http://votesmart.org/bill/votes/ 40900#.UKzqUIfBfh4>.

What was the voting record on HB 819?

What did the governor do?

So, are the sea levels rising?

Sea Level Rise. CSIRO, n.d. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/index.html>.

Year

GMSL (mm)Global Mean Sea Level (mm)

So, are (how are) the sea levels rising?


210 mm

130 years

𝑺𝒍𝒐𝒑𝒆=𝟐𝟏𝟎𝟏𝟑𝟎

𝟏 .𝟔𝒎𝒎𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓

Research varies in the estimate of the rate of sea level

Historical Tide Gauge Measurements. CU Sea Level Research Group, n.d. Web. 27 Nov. 2012. <http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/tide-gauge-sea-level>.

So, are (how are) the sea levels rising?


Let’s zoom in on recent data

GMSL: 1993 - 2009

Looks pretty linear; let’s fit a linear model…

Passes through (0,0)Slope =

Passes through (h,k)Slope =

𝑦−25=2.8(𝑥−2001)𝑦−𝑘=𝑎(𝑥−h)

(2001,25)45

16

𝑺𝒍𝒐𝒑𝒆=𝟒𝟓𝟏𝟔

𝟐 .𝟖

Passes through (0,0)Slope =

Passes through (h,k)Slope =

The linear regression linePasses through )Slope minimizes

Minimize sum error^2

By changing a

Let’s find a least square linear model…

Using this linear model, global mean sea level will rise…

2.8 mm per year0.0028 m per year0.028 m per 10 years0.28 m per 100 year

1 m in about 357 years

𝑦=2.8 (𝑥−2001.5 )+26.5

Back to data since 1880…


Data seems to be concave up(compared to line)

Passes through (0, )Asymptote y =

Passes through ()Asymptote y =

Minimize sum error^2

Chosen arbitrarily

By changing a, b, k

𝑦−−311=228∗1.0064 (𝑥−1940)

𝑦−𝑘=𝑎∗𝑏(𝑥−h )

-311

(1940, -83)

228

-311+228 = -83

Using this linear model, global mean sea level will rise…



𝑦=2.8 (𝑥−2001.5 )+26.5

Using this exponential model, global mean sea level will rise…



𝑦=228∗1.0064(𝑥−1940)−311

Scientists warn US east coast over accelerated sea level rise. The Guardian, n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. <http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jun/24/us-east-coast-sea-level-rise>.

Norfolk, VAAtlantic City, NJSandy Hook, NJNew York, NYBaltimore, MDBoston, MAHalifax, NSPortland, ME

Evidence of Sea Level Acceleration at U.S. and Canadian Tide Stations, Atlantic Coast, North America. Journal of Coastal Research, n.d. Web. 27 Nov. 2012. <http://www.bioone.org/doi/ full/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00102.1#i1551-5036-28-6-1437-f02>.

East Coast Sea Level Rise Time Series

Current Global Mean

East Coast Sea Level Rise Accelerating In 'Hotspot' Area, Report Warns. Huffington Post, n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/25/ east-coast-sea-level-rise_n_1624134.html>.

Sea Level Rise Google Map. FireTree.net, n.d. Web. 27 Nov. 2012. <http://flood.firetree.net/>.

HIGH TIDE AND LOW TIDEIn North Carolina, the difference between high and low tide levels hovers around three feet.

SPRING TIDES AND NEAP TIDESThe moon and sun pass the earth in different positions throughout the year. For this reason, the height of the local tides changes from time to time. The maximums are called spring tides, when the tidal range on a beach is the greatest. This maximum happens when the moon is either full or new. The minimum or neap tide occurs when the moon is in its first or third quarters. The spring tide at Atlantic Beach, North Carolina, is typically six feet and the neap tide is two feet.

Tides. Coastal Care, n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. <http://coastalcare.org/educate/tides/>.

Storm Surge Overview. National Hurricane Center, n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ surge/>.

Rebuilding NC 12: Saving a vital link or throwing money in the ocean? WRAL.com, n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. <http://www.wral.com/ rebuilding-nc-12-saving-a-vital-link-or-throwing-money-in-the-ocean-/11784177/>.

Gallop Politics. Americans' Worries About Global Warming Up Slightly, n.d. Web. 30 Mar. 2012. <http://www.gallup.com/poll/153653/americans-worries-global-warming-slightly.aspx>.

Did Hurricane Sandy change opinions about climate change?

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